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2022 Twins Top Prospects Ranking

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Blog Comments posted by Danchat

  1. On 8/5/2022 at 12:36 AM, mydogsparty said:

    is that because the result is on the pitcher's card instead of the hitter's, therefore the outcome will always favor the pitcher when there's a conflict on his card that could go either way? (IE: if you have a power hitter at the plate who also strikes out a lot and the Col roll is a 2 and the result has either a strikeout or a HR, the HR applies because it's on the batter's card?)

    Usually the strikeout takes precedence over the hit/HR since the idea is that if the hitter is able to make contact, then the hit could vary, but if the hitter doesn't make contact then it's a strikeout. There aren't any HR/K options on the hitting card, but the pitching card has some examples where the K comes first before anything else.

    14 hours ago, Reptevia said:

    We played the 1969 cards until they were dust. We played the front of cards. Way easier if you buy the cards. 

    Well, nowadays if you want to buy a new season of cards it's $50 plus shipping, and if you want the latest/current season you will have to wait months until they're ready to be purchased. Yes, the original cards are absolutely superior to my machinations... but for my younger self, this was the best way to do it.

  2. 2 hours ago, Karbo said:

    I really wonder how many decisions Rocco makes on his own. How many things are coming down from the FO? How many times does he just go with his "gut", or does he just look at the computer printouts and play it the safe way. The Twins have had some really good managers over the years, some that have had a lot less talent yet have managed to get the most out of what they had. Rocco has had fairly talented teams to work with, but IMO, he hasn't really been able to get the most out of what he's been given, yet. With that being said, I will also say other than the way he handles the pitching staff, it seems like he is improving. Now he just needs to figure out the handling of pitchers.

    I've heard rumors that Baldelli doesn't get very much freedom to make decisions, and there is a ton of collaboration with the front office when making lineups / bullpen pecking order / etc. I don't think he makes that big of impact on the team, positive or negative.

  3. 8 hours ago, Rosterman said:

    I worry that we will lose Trey Cabbage to free agency. Do we add him to the 40-man?

    Wander Javier is a 40-man add only because of the investment. Another team can grab him and thumb their nose that the Twins let a million-dollar kid walk away. This is a tough call, but I don't see someone grabbing him this season. He doesn't really look much better than last season, when he passed thru the Rule 5.

    I don't think Cabbage is a worthwhile prospect, and Javier is a defense-only player at this point. You can find other players with their skills on minor league deals, and thus I wouldn't bother adding them to the 40 man.

  4. Alright, so here's a spreadsheet with the data. The hitting and pitching cards are on the first page and should be pretty straightforward, and if there are multiple criteria for a roll, you go top to bottom. The second tab has the Stats to Ranking method, so I recommend visiting Baseball Reference and Fangraphs to determine the stats for the players.

    On 3/21/2021 at 11:05 PM, mydogsparty said:

    Or share with me how you made them?

    Basically, the dice rolls will allow a .300 hitter to hit that when the Batting Card is rolled, a HR heavy hitter will hit more, and they'll take walks and strike out at a general rate to what they did in reality. The master card is very limited and you'll find results are far more accurate and realistic using the actual cards, but I think this is an effective quick-and-dirty method for simming pick-up games like I do. Some of the data is old and a bit questionable (the K rating tops out at 9.6, which has been blown by, you can tell I set this up back in 2015-16).

    Strat-O-Matic Baseball Hitting and Pitching Card.xlsx

  5. On 3/21/2021 at 11:05 PM, mydogsparty said:

    I was huge Strat-o-Matic fan when I was younger and I ran across this article. I'm really interested in your "Master" hitter & pitcher cards. Is there anyway you could share the cards? Or share with me how you made them?

    It looks like I missed your post, sorry about that.

     

    On 10/2/2021 at 8:39 AM, MGMitch said:

    Wow, interesting concept, creating a master card with ranges. Exactly what I was looking for. Any chance that you could share your files? And the screenshots of the ratings?

    Michael Mitchell.

    I'll attach a couple spreadsheets for you guys when I get some time, I've been busy but I will get back to this.

     

    On 3/21/2021 at 11:05 PM, mydogsparty said:

    I read through your example. I was wondering how you would handle the same role if the pitcher met both your criteria? For example he's a 4 in Ks AND a 1 in the hitting department would the batter, Polanco, strikeout or get a single?

    The strikeout has precedence there.

  6. 4 hours ago, jkcarew said:

    He’s been significantly better than both Larnach and Kirilloff over the season…and especially over the last 2+ months. 

    Sano has been significantly better than Kirilloff? They have virtually the same OBP and Sano's OPS is about 20 points higher. That's not to mention RISP situations:

    Sano: .187/.272 (.722 OPS)

    Kirilloff: .310/.349 (.815 OPS)

    And that's not mentioning the fact that Sano was practically demoted to a platoon in June, which coincidentally sparked his hot streak. Kirilloff was a rookie playing every day against most lefties.

    It's nice that Sano is hitting better now, but the first 3 months counted, and he was actively hurting the team. Fangraphs has him as a slightly below replacement level player this season. WPA doesn't like him either - I do like using the OPS, but it exaggerates the value of a power-only hitter. 

  7. 3 hours ago, MMMordabito said:

    Lewis, Miranda, Sands, Winder and Enlow all need to be protected.  

    Palacios could be on either side of the 40 line when it's all settled.  His fate may lie in what the return looks like with the assumed deadline deals.

    Barring a second-half explosion, gambles can probably be made with Maciel and Javier.

    Agreed, right now I would add Palacios simply because we don't have many pure SS prospects. I would be OK losing Javier, since I have my doubts that he'll ever hit well in the majors.

  8. 8 hours ago, annismark said:

    I'm curious, Is Moran considered a prospect or not.   His results seem pretty good compared to some on the list. 

    He's #32 on my board, his Tool Grades from Fangraphs is keeping him lower on the list than the others, but he probably shouldn't be 10 spots behind Cano.

    8 hours ago, Dman said:

    Also I admit I have a bias, but the K rate for Wallner is too large and his BABIP (500) too high to consider his numbers anything but a mirage at this point

    Wallner was my 8th prospect originally and the top 3 graduated, so it's hard to knock him down much lower after just 75 PAs. I don't think you'll see any of the others rate Miranda over Wallner like I did, at least this high.

    8 hours ago, Dman said:

    I don't love Sabato at number 9 but his eye at the plate is good and have to believe he can fix some of that swing and miss eventually.  He has kept his OBP high so that is good.

    Sabato was originally ranked #9 and was essentially knocked down 3 spots as I explained above. I'm also being more lenient on guys who are in their first season - Rooker, on the other hand, has had plenty of time, hence him dropping like a stone.

    On 6/26/2021 at 9:54 PM, SteelDodo said:

    Good list! Personally, I would move Julien to ~20.

    I guess I'm not feeling the hype quite as much on him. His .490 OBP is insane.

  9. 11 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

    What I do not want is for Kepler to come back and bench one of these two players.  I see Kepler in CF (not my favorite either) Celestino sent down and Kiriloff and Larnach surrounding him. 

    I'm not worried. When it has come to Falvine's top hitting prospects, they are either in the lineup every day or playing that much in AAA.

    9 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

    I feel the team misses Eddie Rosarios flair & passion, but these two have the skills to replace him and more.

    "Passion"? He'd routinely show little effort running to first and would misplay routine flyballs. I in no way hate Rosario, but if the Twins retained him and the he hits like he has for the Indians, Twins Daily would be slamming him. He hasn't been all that much better than Sano this year and has certainly not been worth the $8M Cleveland gave him. He still can't get on base and his power is suddenly gone (4 HRs in 240+ PAs).

    9 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

    Now we have Gordon, who is by all accounts a whiz of a fielder, can fill in at CF for Buxton, speed galore and is hitting better than Arraiz

    You're basing this off small sample sizes for both Gordon and Arraez... even with Arraez slumping, he still getting on base with a .350 OBP and has a career .316 BA. His defense is pretty bad, but we need him in the lineup, especially with how many solo HRs this team has been hitting without him.

  10. Larnach never struggled at any level in the minors over a full season, which is why I thought of him as the "safest" prospect in the organization, and it looks like he's taken the promotion well, and he's here to stay. Hitting against MLB pitchers is incredibly difficult and Larnach will surely have some slumps, but I have confidence he will become a cornerstone for the Twins for several years. Here's hoping their pitching prospects can come up and show similar poise and competency that Larnach does.

  11.  

    How many of the top prospects will make significant contributions to winning the AL central? I'd love to have Rocco get the top 6-8 guys together and put a little pressure on them to take a big step forward in 2021. They will all be playing in midway or downtown...

    Jeffers and Kiriloff should, Rooker will likely too. Wallner and Balazovic aren't close enough yet to help, and I don't think Lewis will be ready to contribute this year. Larnach definitely could this year. Maybe Duran breaks into the rotation at some point, but landing in the bullpen in September is a possibility too, and then he competes for a rotation spot in 2022.

  12.  

    If I am reading this right, you are listing 6 "sure thing" hitters, mostly with power, and 2 pitchers that are expected to be relievers.  Some lucky team that is willing to part with a decent young pitcher will be very fortunate to make a trade with us.  :)

    Both of the pitchers listed project to be starters, Duran is just more likely to start out in the bullpen at the end of the 2021 season, like many top pitching prospects. They wouldn't be ranked so high if they were likely to end up in the bullpen.

     

    I wouldn't call the hitters sure things, though I think Larnach, Kiriloff, and Jeffers are close to that.

  13.  

    Not sure I can agree with you on Lewis.  None of the players ahead of him have 5 tool potential he is the only one and prospect lists are based on potential not stats. I agree his hit tool is suspect and he might not be a 5 tool player in the end but he is only 22 with only one bad year so far.  I think it is too early to have him that low.  

     

    Surprised by your Kirilloff, Larnach switch but I can get behind it.  I know Kirilloff's bat is "special" but having a good eye and making pitchers work is a very important if underrated skill to have and Larnach has it.  I think I still like Kirilloff slightly better as I think he has the better power profile but I can see your point.

     

    No one has put Jeffers that high mainly based on potential but I agree catchers who can hit and defend are rare and should be treated as the special commodity they are.  Two is a little high for me but again I can see it so not that big of a deal for me.

     

    I was more disappointed than you with Wallner.  Granted he hasn't had much time to prove himself but I am questioning the bat a bit right now.  I wouldn't have him this high yet but it is such a small sample size I could be wrong.  He has the arm for right but is still a bit of liability defensively there since he doesn't run that well so that brings him down some for me.  Power is his calling card but the bat needs to be special to be in this territory IMO and I am not sure it is just yet.

    Maybe it's just me sensing that Lewis' career is going to go like Carlos Gomez's or Aaron Hicks'. Perhaps I am overreacting a bit to a single year of his minor league career, but I see a lot of red flags. Other prospect rankings don't seem to factor in risk as much as I did - that's not to say they're wrong to do so, I'm just looking at things from a more mathematical standpoint.

     

    The top 3 are very close and could be interchanged. Kiriloff and Larnach have their differences, but they're both the same level of prospect. 

     

    I'll need to see more of Wallner to know where to better rank him, as he might end up in the 'teens' range.

  14.  

    Thanks for doing the honorable mentions as it is nice to see who was close to making the list.  FWIW I agree with most of those.  I like where you put Solarie as a fair number of analysts were not sure the bat would translate and at best he would be an average defender in Left or second base.  I think he is too high on the other lists but maybe he will prove me wrong I know Jeffers did.

     

    While I agree with what you said about Windor and he placed about the same on MLB's prospect list I think you might be short selling him.  Lot's of reports of improved velocity and a legitimate change up.  I think he OK at this level but there is reason to bump him up as well.

     

    I think you have Andrade placed about right but many analysts see him moving over to third and he has the power stroke to be fine there.

     

    Nice list I like it.

    Winder's profile was written before the Fangraphs update that went on about his MPH gain, so he should probably be a bit higher.

     

    The international prospects are hard to rank when they're so young and so far out, but I feel like this is the best spot to place them. Urbina will be in the #20-11 range.

  15. Adding on to the comparisons:

     

    Playoffs:

    Rosario 6 games, .217/.250/.522 (.772 OPS)
    Buxton 3 games, .167/.167/.167 (.333 OPS)
    Sano 5 games, .105/.150/.263 (.413 OPS)
    Kepler 6 games, .056/.320/.375 (.431 OPS)

     

    Yuck. And Eddie's is with 0/7 vs the Astros!

     

    I'm not all aboard the Rosario train, but he's certainly not a bad player. He should be a 1.5-3 WAR player again in 2021. I wouldn't give him a multi-year extension, but I wouldn't hate it if he was tendered. I would like to get him back if we lose Cruz, but I'm also comfortable with the future of the LF spot with Kiriloff and Larnach close to being ready.

  16. Nice list!

     

    Sabato and Rooker look like near identical prospects to me... 

     

    I'd put Jeffers at #6 over Enlow and Thorpe. I think Jeffers is a stud, and Enlow's upside isn't amazing and Thorpe might end up as a decent reliever. 

     

    Just wondering aloud, where would Jaylin Davis and Lewin Diaz rank if they weren't traded? I know they'd likely be outside of the top 10. Though with the way Falvine is drafting hitters so frequently, it's easy to forget they aren't in the system any longer.

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