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Danchat

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Blog Comments posted by Danchat

  1. 3 hours ago, MMMordabito said:

    Lewis, Miranda, Sands, Winder and Enlow all need to be protected.  

    Palacios could be on either side of the 40 line when it's all settled.  His fate may lie in what the return looks like with the assumed deadline deals.

    Barring a second-half explosion, gambles can probably be made with Maciel and Javier.

    Agreed, right now I would add Palacios simply because we don't have many pure SS prospects. I would be OK losing Javier, since I have my doubts that he'll ever hit well in the majors.

  2. 8 hours ago, annismark said:

    I'm curious, Is Moran considered a prospect or not.   His results seem pretty good compared to some on the list. 

    He's #32 on my board, his Tool Grades from Fangraphs is keeping him lower on the list than the others, but he probably shouldn't be 10 spots behind Cano.

    8 hours ago, Dman said:

    Also I admit I have a bias, but the K rate for Wallner is too large and his BABIP (500) too high to consider his numbers anything but a mirage at this point

    Wallner was my 8th prospect originally and the top 3 graduated, so it's hard to knock him down much lower after just 75 PAs. I don't think you'll see any of the others rate Miranda over Wallner like I did, at least this high.

    8 hours ago, Dman said:

    I don't love Sabato at number 9 but his eye at the plate is good and have to believe he can fix some of that swing and miss eventually.  He has kept his OBP high so that is good.

    Sabato was originally ranked #9 and was essentially knocked down 3 spots as I explained above. I'm also being more lenient on guys who are in their first season - Rooker, on the other hand, has had plenty of time, hence him dropping like a stone.

    On 6/26/2021 at 9:54 PM, SteelDodo said:

    Good list! Personally, I would move Julien to ~20.

    I guess I'm not feeling the hype quite as much on him. His .490 OBP is insane.

  3. 11 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

    What I do not want is for Kepler to come back and bench one of these two players.  I see Kepler in CF (not my favorite either) Celestino sent down and Kiriloff and Larnach surrounding him. 

    I'm not worried. When it has come to Falvine's top hitting prospects, they are either in the lineup every day or playing that much in AAA.

    9 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

    I feel the team misses Eddie Rosarios flair & passion, but these two have the skills to replace him and more.

    "Passion"? He'd routinely show little effort running to first and would misplay routine flyballs. I in no way hate Rosario, but if the Twins retained him and the he hits like he has for the Indians, Twins Daily would be slamming him. He hasn't been all that much better than Sano this year and has certainly not been worth the $8M Cleveland gave him. He still can't get on base and his power is suddenly gone (4 HRs in 240+ PAs).

    9 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

    Now we have Gordon, who is by all accounts a whiz of a fielder, can fill in at CF for Buxton, speed galore and is hitting better than Arraiz

    You're basing this off small sample sizes for both Gordon and Arraez... even with Arraez slumping, he still getting on base with a .350 OBP and has a career .316 BA. His defense is pretty bad, but we need him in the lineup, especially with how many solo HRs this team has been hitting without him.

  4. Larnach never struggled at any level in the minors over a full season, which is why I thought of him as the "safest" prospect in the organization, and it looks like he's taken the promotion well, and he's here to stay. Hitting against MLB pitchers is incredibly difficult and Larnach will surely have some slumps, but I have confidence he will become a cornerstone for the Twins for several years. Here's hoping their pitching prospects can come up and show similar poise and competency that Larnach does.

  5.  

    How many of the top prospects will make significant contributions to winning the AL central? I'd love to have Rocco get the top 6-8 guys together and put a little pressure on them to take a big step forward in 2021. They will all be playing in midway or downtown...

    Jeffers and Kiriloff should, Rooker will likely too. Wallner and Balazovic aren't close enough yet to help, and I don't think Lewis will be ready to contribute this year. Larnach definitely could this year. Maybe Duran breaks into the rotation at some point, but landing in the bullpen in September is a possibility too, and then he competes for a rotation spot in 2022.

  6.  

    If I am reading this right, you are listing 6 "sure thing" hitters, mostly with power, and 2 pitchers that are expected to be relievers.  Some lucky team that is willing to part with a decent young pitcher will be very fortunate to make a trade with us.  :)

    Both of the pitchers listed project to be starters, Duran is just more likely to start out in the bullpen at the end of the 2021 season, like many top pitching prospects. They wouldn't be ranked so high if they were likely to end up in the bullpen.

     

    I wouldn't call the hitters sure things, though I think Larnach, Kiriloff, and Jeffers are close to that.

  7.  

    Not sure I can agree with you on Lewis.  None of the players ahead of him have 5 tool potential he is the only one and prospect lists are based on potential not stats. I agree his hit tool is suspect and he might not be a 5 tool player in the end but he is only 22 with only one bad year so far.  I think it is too early to have him that low.  

     

    Surprised by your Kirilloff, Larnach switch but I can get behind it.  I know Kirilloff's bat is "special" but having a good eye and making pitchers work is a very important if underrated skill to have and Larnach has it.  I think I still like Kirilloff slightly better as I think he has the better power profile but I can see your point.

     

    No one has put Jeffers that high mainly based on potential but I agree catchers who can hit and defend are rare and should be treated as the special commodity they are.  Two is a little high for me but again I can see it so not that big of a deal for me.

     

    I was more disappointed than you with Wallner.  Granted he hasn't had much time to prove himself but I am questioning the bat a bit right now.  I wouldn't have him this high yet but it is such a small sample size I could be wrong.  He has the arm for right but is still a bit of liability defensively there since he doesn't run that well so that brings him down some for me.  Power is his calling card but the bat needs to be special to be in this territory IMO and I am not sure it is just yet.

    Maybe it's just me sensing that Lewis' career is going to go like Carlos Gomez's or Aaron Hicks'. Perhaps I am overreacting a bit to a single year of his minor league career, but I see a lot of red flags. Other prospect rankings don't seem to factor in risk as much as I did - that's not to say they're wrong to do so, I'm just looking at things from a more mathematical standpoint.

     

    The top 3 are very close and could be interchanged. Kiriloff and Larnach have their differences, but they're both the same level of prospect. 

     

    I'll need to see more of Wallner to know where to better rank him, as he might end up in the 'teens' range.

  8.  

    Thanks for doing the honorable mentions as it is nice to see who was close to making the list.  FWIW I agree with most of those.  I like where you put Solarie as a fair number of analysts were not sure the bat would translate and at best he would be an average defender in Left or second base.  I think he is too high on the other lists but maybe he will prove me wrong I know Jeffers did.

     

    While I agree with what you said about Windor and he placed about the same on MLB's prospect list I think you might be short selling him.  Lot's of reports of improved velocity and a legitimate change up.  I think he OK at this level but there is reason to bump him up as well.

     

    I think you have Andrade placed about right but many analysts see him moving over to third and he has the power stroke to be fine there.

     

    Nice list I like it.

    Winder's profile was written before the Fangraphs update that went on about his MPH gain, so he should probably be a bit higher.

     

    The international prospects are hard to rank when they're so young and so far out, but I feel like this is the best spot to place them. Urbina will be in the #20-11 range.

  9. Adding on to the comparisons:

     

    Playoffs:

    Rosario 6 games, .217/.250/.522 (.772 OPS)
    Buxton 3 games, .167/.167/.167 (.333 OPS)
    Sano 5 games, .105/.150/.263 (.413 OPS)
    Kepler 6 games, .056/.320/.375 (.431 OPS)

     

    Yuck. And Eddie's is with 0/7 vs the Astros!

     

    I'm not all aboard the Rosario train, but he's certainly not a bad player. He should be a 1.5-3 WAR player again in 2021. I wouldn't give him a multi-year extension, but I wouldn't hate it if he was tendered. I would like to get him back if we lose Cruz, but I'm also comfortable with the future of the LF spot with Kiriloff and Larnach close to being ready.

  10. Nice list!

     

    Sabato and Rooker look like near identical prospects to me... 

     

    I'd put Jeffers at #6 over Enlow and Thorpe. I think Jeffers is a stud, and Enlow's upside isn't amazing and Thorpe might end up as a decent reliever. 

     

    Just wondering aloud, where would Jaylin Davis and Lewin Diaz rank if they weren't traded? I know they'd likely be outside of the top 10. Though with the way Falvine is drafting hitters so frequently, it's easy to forget they aren't in the system any longer.

  11.  

    If anyone is still listening.....

     

    I had purchased the SOM Hall of Fame board game when I visited Cooperstown in 2015 with my daughter.  I made up a few teams and played a few basic games, but then put it away. 

     

    Since my Sunday afternoons this spring are not spent drinking beer in the back yard while cooking something on the grill listening to Cory and Danny (or toddling down to Target Field to drink beer and eat a hot dog while watching Our Favorite Team in person), I went ahead and purchased the SOM 2019 card set.  I have been having a lot of fun playing....all by myself.

     

    Please understand, I am not a baseball geek, just a fan.  The lineups I have put together for a few games have been, well, interesting. To someone who knows the game better than me there is probably another word for what I've constructed - laughable. 

     

    Anyway. I'm looking for someone or some people to play the SOM board game virtually or socially distanced. (I have the digital version of SOM. Don't really care for it.) What I am really looking for is someone who knows the game well who would play and, rather than make it a big competition, make it a session about strategy. I want to understand the game, meaning baseball, more deeply.  

    How would that work? I don't have the digital version, and I only use my own homemade solutions, so I'm unsure if I would be able to help you there.

  12. With Minnesota having brought in Jhoulys Chacin on a minor league deal, the assumption would be that he has the inside track to crack the 26-man roster as the 5th pitcher.

     

    Boy, I sure hope not. I hope Thorpe or Dobnak can seize that 5th spot, and let Chacin stay as depth at AAA (until he opts out or whatever). I'd much rather go with the guy with far more upside (Thorpe) or at least the guy who pitched great down the stretch (Dobnak) rather than the junkballer who's at the tail end of his career (Chacin).

  13. Arcia was a bust, and many prospects simply flame out. I don't think the Twins did something wrong.

     

    Many have pointed out Romero's move to the bullpen as the cause of his lost season, but I firmly believe he would have pitched about the same as a starter. Heck, pitching as a starter in the majors is incredibly difficult, and Romero simply didn't have it this season. They'll need to see if they can fix him in 2020, as it's his last option year.

  14.  

    12/4: Jake Odorizzi signs a 5/$75 million contract with the Houston Astros

    Ugh, yeah, I wouldn't mind passing on that deal. Woof.

     

     

    12/6: Pat Reusse writes column that the Twins gave an honest attempt to sign Odorizzi. Didn't want to commit to 5th guaranteed year.

    If anyone is going to reporting this type of stuff, it'd probably be Wolfson, not Reusse. Old Pat would be ripping the front office left and right in that article.

  15. Schoop has started to slump as of late but I would wait things out. I think it'd be wise to have Schoop play out his deal and hit free agency in 2020.

     

    Defensively Schoop has been panned by the advanced metrics, but he's been a good fielder in previous years so I wouldn't be surprised if he regresses to the mean and plays better. 

     

    I have no idea what to do with Sano, and sending him to AAA is a legitimate option at this point. I wouldn't trade him during the season, though. 

  16. I know this isn't related to 2019, but I have to post this tidbit from the 2017 Rankings:

     

     

    I really thought [Jake] Reed would debut with Minnesota in 2016. Unfortunately a slow start derailed that opportunity, but he did finish strong with a promotion to Triple-A Rochester. He's one of Minnesota's hard throwing relief options, and there's real reason to believe he could push for an early big league opportunity in 2017. Reed has strikeout stuff, and his movement is the real deal.

     

    And yet Reed is still languishing at AAA!

  17.  

    In the 1980's, a group of us formed a lunch time strato league at work. I even made a cardboard Fenway Park to throw the dice in (forgive the dangling participle). Great way to waste company time and resources.

    I gotta wonder how many people my age have even played Strat-O-Matic Baseball (I'm in my 20s). From what I can tell its popularity was back in the 80s, maybe even before then?

  18. Nice article, Matt, I loved the personality you injected into this piece.

     

    I don't want to see retreads like A. Reed (unless his speed ticks back up), Duffey, or Magill in the bullpen... I would be fine cycling through some of the somewhat intriguing AAA depth (guys like Eades, Nicolino, J Reed) and see if anything sticks. I'd rather try out the guys with small chances to succeed rather than the guys we know that most likely won't succeed.

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