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Blog Comments posted by smartfred

  1. 38 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

    I did miss Bauer at the $100MM price point. Otherwise, I attempted to list every single starter who signed a $100MM+ contract in the past 8 years? I suppose there aren't a ton of aces who are allowed to hit free agency so they are rare; however, signing isn't the only way to acquire elite rotation arms. Darvish, Bauer, Greinke and Price were all traded. Also, as the article states "as they become available." 

    A lost season isn't a problem because the pitchers almost always make up for it across the entire contract. There's a big gap between winning the World Series every single year and not going to a World Series for more than 30 years.

    2020 FA Class

    Stephen Strasburg - 0 WAR over the last 2 seasons and probably headed for more ($245 million)

    Hyun Jin Ryu - 4.3 WAR over 2 season and $40 million = $9.3 million/ WAR with 2 years remaining and a 75% chance (due to injury) that 1 of the remaining 2 years will be lost.

    Zack Wheeler - 8.4 WAR over the last 2 season and cost $47 million which is $5.5 million per WAR. He has 2 years left so that's still a 75% chance that he will miss significant time due to injury. 

    All 3 guys would take up 20-30% of our payroll if we signed them to their current contract which would have been more if we a part of the bidding. Yikes that's a lot.

    4 seasons to gamble on 1 player is a really tough thing to do. If it doesn't work out or Tommy John surgery knocks him out for half of his contract, Ouch.

    If anything, it now makes even more sense why low market teams should continue to go after mid to low salary guys and hope they pull a Robbie Ray or Kevin Gausman out of their hat.

    Happ IMO was a good gamble since he pitched in Yankee Stadium and still had good numbers despite giving up lots of long balls.

    Moving to a pitcher friendly ballpark could have really been a sneaky great season for him but as we all know, it didn't work out.

    At least Gant is looking good! 

    Making the playoffs is the ultimate goal according to analytics. The sample size of a 1 game Wildcard or 7 game series is small enough that a weaker opponent still has a decent chance to win. (Yes... what's happened to the Twins in playoffs is extremely unlucky). 

    I don't understand the gap you're referring to as winning the WS every year versus not going to the WS in 30 years.

    It's to be expected that the Dodgers, Yankees, and other large market teams will make it.

    Look at the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics on what they've been able to do as far as making the playoffs versus their divisional rivals.

    Boston and New York should never not make the playoffs with their salary and with how much the Angels spend, they should dominate teams like the Athletics. 

    Also, where is the ace that's on the A's or Rays? Rays don't have one! A's don't have one! 

    I really like your post though, it's a great conversation to have with fellow Twins fans!


  2. The problem I have with your list list is that you're cherry picking players that are fitting your narrative.

    For example...

    2021 FA Class of High End Starters

    Trevor Bauer - WAR - 1.7 @ 3 years for $34 million = $20 million/WAR

    Charlie Morton - WAR - 3.6 @ 1 year for $15 million = $4.15 million/WAR

    Kevin Gausman - WAR - 4.2 @ 1 year for $18.9 million = $4.5 million/WAR

    Marcus Stroman - WAR - 3.1 @ 1 year for $18.9 million = $6.1 million/ WAR

    That's it for higher end SP's for 2021

    The middle guys

    Corey Kluber - WAR - 1 @ 1 year for $11 million = $11 million / WAR

    Mike Minor - WAR - 2 @ 2 years for $18 million = $2.25 million / WAR

    James Paxton - WAR - 0 @ 1 year for $8.5 million = INF / WAR

    Robbie Ray - WAR - 3.7 @ 1 year for $8 million = $2.16 million / WAR

    Drew Smyly - WAR - .2 @ 1 year for $11 million = $55 million / WAR

    The Twins Picks

    J.A. Happ - WAR 0 @ $8 million

    Matt Shoemaker - .7 WAR @ $2 million

    The Twins have had 15 different starting pitchers in 2021. Less than 60% of SP's in the rotation will end the year with 30 starts.

    This means the Twins need at least 10 - 15 starting pitcher.

    I don't see any logic why the Twins FO will sign a SP that will cost 15-25% of the payroll and only has a 50-60% chance to make it through the entire season.

    We could have signed 2 mid tier pitchers and gambled on their success, or do what the Twins did and signed 1 mid tier pitcher and 1 low end pitcher and roll the dice.

    Unfortunately the dice roll didn't end up.

    The Twins Plan That Didn't Work 

    • Sign elite defenders so mediocre pitchers have a better chance to thrive at Target Field
    • Josh Donaldson
    • Andrelton Simmons
    • Buxton in CF
    • Polonco is a + defender at 2B
    • Keplar is a + defender in the OF

    Realistically the Twins made some good decisions, they just lost the dice roll. 

    Sure beats being stuck with a lost season from;

    Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander, Chris Sale, Luis Severino and many others....

    25% of your payroll just thrown in the trash.... that would hurt... I like the Twins strategy better.

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