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TwinsDr2021

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  1. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Baldelli needs to break up Bundy and Archer   
    Compare those to Bundy, who I don’t think has gone more than five innings since the ASB (without checking, admittedly).
    I don’t even care if they wedge Gray in there, it could just as easily be Ryan or Mahle. My point is to break up Bundy and Archer, Gray is just the easiest one to move to that slot. 
  2. Haha
    TwinsDr2021 got a reaction from TwinsRealist in Baldelli needs to break up Bundy and Archer   
    We are 114 games into 162 schedule, do we think the twins are really going to change anything?
    I will say it does seem like Rocco has tried to extend his starters a tiny bit and every time he does they give up a hit or run and he quickly pulls them.
    I would love to see Pagan start Archer's next game or somebody that can go two innings, let Archer go his 4 and see what happens.
  3. Like
    TwinsDr2021 got a reaction from TwinsRealist in Baldelli needs to break up Bundy and Archer   
    Will this really help?
    Last 5 starts -
    Bundy - 5, 4, 5,4, 5.1 = 23.1
    Ryan - 5.1, 5, 5, 4.2, 5.2 = 25.2
    Gray - 4.2, 5, 5, 6, 3.2 = 24.1
    So in the last 5 starts the difference is 2 2/3 inning for Ryan and 1 inning for Gray compared to Bundy. So maybe throwing Mahle, Archer, Ryan, Bundy Gray would help a little?
    The fact of the matter is that if your starter goes 5 you need 4 innings, and since most Twins starts are 5 innings, you need two set of 4 pitchers to pitch one inning every other game, and that is not sustainable.
     
     
     
  4. Like
    TwinsDr2021 got a reaction from DocBauer in Baldelli needs to break up Bundy and Archer   
    Will this really help?
    Last 5 starts -
    Bundy - 5, 4, 5,4, 5.1 = 23.1
    Ryan - 5.1, 5, 5, 4.2, 5.2 = 25.2
    Gray - 4.2, 5, 5, 6, 3.2 = 24.1
    So in the last 5 starts the difference is 2 2/3 inning for Ryan and 1 inning for Gray compared to Bundy. So maybe throwing Mahle, Archer, Ryan, Bundy Gray would help a little?
    The fact of the matter is that if your starter goes 5 you need 4 innings, and since most Twins starts are 5 innings, you need two set of 4 pitchers to pitch one inning every other game, and that is not sustainable.
     
     
     
  5. Like
    TwinsDr2021 got a reaction from Mike Sixel in Do Any of the Top Free Agents Fit in Minnesota?   
    What pitchers are you thinking?
  6. Like
    TwinsDr2021 got a reaction from h2oface in The unpredictability of relief pitching   
    There is no way to know how many Scherzer types are left because teams aren't training them to do that. I mean Sandy Alcantara can't be the only 26 year old pitcher in the world that can average over 7 innings, can he? The Twins will never know how much stamina their pitchers have or how good they truly can be, because they are only asking 5 innings from their starters in the minors, may goodness here on TD they talk about how great a game a minor league pitcher had even if he pitched 5 innings.
    I will say this though, back when I was in college (I pitched a little bit, real little bit) my coach said to us pitchers if you have to go to your third or fourth pitch to get people out in the first couple of innings, know you are going to be a relief pitcher. The best pitchers where able to get guys out early in the game with their best couple of pitches, so when they faced them later in the game they could throw all their pitches and keep the batters off balance. Maybe with video, only a few of the best pitchers can still do that anymore.
    I think it was Ryan's start against Colorado where Gladden said, this could be a long/short day for Ryan because he is already going to his secondary stuff in the first inning. (he went on to pitch 102 pitches in 5 innings that day)
  7. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to nicksaviking in Tatis suspended   
    I ****think**** this is the same excuse. Googling 'head fungus' (gross) shows it is also known as 'ringworm of the scalp'.
    It's just that no one got their stories straight. Particularly the part where the cohort got the name of their steroid mixed up with the name of an OTC antihistamine. Oops.
  8. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to USAFChief in Do Any of the Top Free Agents Fit in Minnesota?   
    Well anything's possible. 
    Except Judge or Turner signing with the Twins.
  9. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to bean5302 in Do Any of the Top Free Agents Fit in Minnesota?   
    Nope.
    Judge is will stay in NY.
    Turner will stay in LA.
    Arenado is on pace to win the NL MVP this year and he's not in the Twins' budget or their needs.
    Correa will be out of the Twins' budget.
     
  10. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to bean5302 in The unpredictability of relief pitching   
    I'm saying the unpredictability is inherent to the game when it comes to small sample sizes. Relievers are always small sample sizes.
  11. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to USAFChief in Do Any of the Top Free Agents Fit in Minnesota?   
    The only way any of these players are with the Twins next year is if Correa opts in.
    And that's unlikely. At best.  Not impossible,  but unlikely. 
  12. Like
    TwinsDr2021 got a reaction from Dman in Baldelli needs to break up Bundy and Archer   
    Will this really help?
    Last 5 starts -
    Bundy - 5, 4, 5,4, 5.1 = 23.1
    Ryan - 5.1, 5, 5, 4.2, 5.2 = 25.2
    Gray - 4.2, 5, 5, 6, 3.2 = 24.1
    So in the last 5 starts the difference is 2 2/3 inning for Ryan and 1 inning for Gray compared to Bundy. So maybe throwing Mahle, Archer, Ryan, Bundy Gray would help a little?
    The fact of the matter is that if your starter goes 5 you need 4 innings, and since most Twins starts are 5 innings, you need two set of 4 pitchers to pitch one inning every other game, and that is not sustainable.
     
     
     
  13. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to gunnarthor in Baldelli needs to break up Bundy and Archer   
    I don't think there's a real difference in innings per start between Gray and Bundy.
  14. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to FlyingFinn in Baldelli needs to break up Bundy and Archer   
    Unless he is working on something in St. Paul, he has not been pitching well since he was sent down.
  15. Like
    TwinsDr2021 got a reaction from D.C Twins in Baldelli needs to break up Bundy and Archer   
    Will this really help?
    Last 5 starts -
    Bundy - 5, 4, 5,4, 5.1 = 23.1
    Ryan - 5.1, 5, 5, 4.2, 5.2 = 25.2
    Gray - 4.2, 5, 5, 6, 3.2 = 24.1
    So in the last 5 starts the difference is 2 2/3 inning for Ryan and 1 inning for Gray compared to Bundy. So maybe throwing Mahle, Archer, Ryan, Bundy Gray would help a little?
    The fact of the matter is that if your starter goes 5 you need 4 innings, and since most Twins starts are 5 innings, you need two set of 4 pitchers to pitch one inning every other game, and that is not sustainable.
     
     
     
  16. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to bean5302 in The unpredictability of relief pitching   
    It's Taylor ROGERS. Like Mr. Rogers.
    Not RODGERS like Aaron Rodgers.

    Anyway, I love for people to wait until a relief pitcher has a really rough game to jump all over them (this seems to happen frequently for Rogers around here). The guy owns a 2.24 FIP and 3.32 xFIP this year. Peripherals look outstanding as well. He's been a reliably good closer for years now, but he's just seemingly been unlucky, and with the small number of innings a reliever has, luck can be everything.

    2.81 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, 11.00 K/9 (28.5%) vs. 2.00 BB/9 (5.2%) BABIP .349
    Rogers' stuff is working, too. He's essentially tied for the lead in called strike percentage. Hitters are being frozen watching strike 3 over and over again and he's just above average in swinging strike rate. Contact rate on Roger's stuff out of the zone is excellent. The BABIP is killing him.
    Let's look at our closer acquisition Jorge Lopez.
    2.97 FIP, 3.26 xFIP, 9.79 K/9 (26.6%) vs. 3.21 BB/9 (8.7%) BABIP .246
    K rate is worse. BB is much worse. Chase rate is worse. Contact rates are worse. Swinging strike rate is worse, called strike rate is worse. First pitch strike is lower. Basically, across the board Lopez is inferior to Rogers.

    How about our super stud Jhoan Duran.
    3.04 FIP, 2.32 xFIP, 11.55 K/9 (32.3%), 2.13 BB/9 (6.0%). BABIP .289
    Duran's given up an extra home run or two more than expected. His overall line is better than Rogers this year. Duran has been pretty elite, but you can see the K rate, BB rate, and FIPs are similar to Rogers.

    When you're talking about 20 or 30 or 40 innings, you're talking about 5-7 starts for a starter (162 starts for Baldelli managed teams), all it takes is a couple unlucky base runners and a home run to jack ERA's up. Rogers has allowed 0 earned runs in 32 and 1 earned run in 8 of his 46 appearances. That's 87% of the time Rogers allowed 0-1 runs (earned or unearned) total.

     
  17. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to notoriousgod71 in The unpredictability of relief pitching   
    So if no one can trust anybody in the bullpen we should try to get as many innings as possible out of the top half of the rotation, yeah?
     
    If you can't trust anyone you have failed as a GM .
  18. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to Sean.h in Baldelli needs to break up Bundy and Archer   
    with two off-days last week, why not skip their turn in the rotation???
  19. Haha
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to strumdatjag in Max Kepler Under Contract for 2023   
    I’m taking credit for Kepler’s 3 hit night tonight.   He needed to have a fire lit under him.   My negative Kepler post starting this thread is the thing that lit that fire tonight.  Your welcome!!!! 
  20. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to LA VIkes Fan in Max Kepler Under Contract for 2023   
    Hey, I'm one of Kepler's harshest critics but he did seem to adjust and hit 2 line drives to LF tonight. At this point though, we all know what were getting from him. .230/.320/.400 ish; OPs around .700-.725, and superior defense in RF. Not a bad guy to have but it would be great if we had 3 better OFs so he could be the 4th. Well, let's see, we have Buxton, and in descending order maybe Larnach (?), maaybe Kiriloff (?), maaaybe Gordon (?), and maaaaybe Celestino (?)! Cave and Contreras appear to be hard NOs, and who knows about guys in the minors like Wallner and Julien. Boy, it's going to be hard to trade him with those alternatives.  
  21. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to bean5302 in Max Kepler Under Contract for 2023   
    My point is that Kepler is a solid player. Larnach has yet to prove he is. As I noted above, yes, Kepler is a good potential asset to trade if they feel Gordon and Wallner could replace him.

    If you want to believe Larnach is more than the next Nomar Mazara, you can.
  22. Yikes
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to darin617 in Max Kepler Under Contract for 2023   
    Kepler will have to have a good rest of this season to not get cut loose and replaced by one of the many young OF in the organization.
    Eat the money and instantly improve the offense.
  23. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to bean5302 in Max Kepler Under Contract for 2023   
    Kepler > Trevor Larnach. All day, every day. Better at the plate. Better on the base paths. Better defense.

    If Kepler plays a full season? 95% he's 2.0+ WAR.
  24. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to jkcarew in Max Kepler Under Contract for 2023   
    Wallner seems like a first baseman when I watch him. And regardless, I wouldn’t want to count on him in 2023….risky…it’s not like 2023 shapes up to be a rebuilding year, at least going in.
    When he gets through this __it storm, it’s likely that Kepler remains a solidly above league-average hitter against right handed pitching for at least a couple more years. And IMO, you can’t do anything with Kepler until you are SURE about Kirilloff. I say you plan on platooning him in 2023 with Garlick or some other right handed batter who rakes lefties.
     
    After 2023, I’m sure at least one of Kepler/Larnach/Kirilloff will not be in the picture.
  25. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to Mike Sixel in Max Kepler Under Contract for 2023   
    Odds either puts up 2-3 WAR next year? Slim? 
    Now, if Larnach is healthy, and they want to roll the dice on dealing Max (if they spend the money elsewhere)? I'm ok with that.
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