Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

TwinsDr2021

Verified Member
  • Posts

    900
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Reputation Activity

  1. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to bean5302 in Where's Wallner?   
    Wallner is .308/.400/.577 for an OPS of .977 in August (last 6 games) after being ice cold in his first 10 games in AAA so his numbers are quickly correcting at this point. It's not like his number suggested he was overmatched. He wasn't striking out much and he was walking a fair bit since he was promoted. The sample sizes are too small to take anything from his time there.
    Aside from that, no, Wallner is probably not the next guy up. Not till September when rosters expand because he's not on the 40 man.
     
  2. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to RpR in Where's Wallner?   
    Wallner is batting .188 in the Minors where he should stay.
  3. Yikes
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to bird in State of the Twins Farm System - 6 Years Into Falvey's Reign.   
    Fangraphs didn't share your opinion, prior to the deadline, that Falvey's farm system is pretty empty. And, depending on one's definition of what a "stud" is, I'd argue that Mahle and Lopez qualify as studs, and they're a product of Falvey's farm system, as is Paddack, and who knows, maybe Brayan Medina becomes a stud later.
    Royce Lewis will be a stud, IMO. The jury's out on Kirilloff and Larnach after fewer than 500 MLB AB's, especially given their injury histories. I think we may be slightly and pleasantly surprised at how the experts view the system in the next round of rankings.
    And let's put things into context. Falvey's draft order since 2017 has averaged #16. Compare that to Detroit (#6) or KC (#9) or even CWS (#13), and keep in mind how greatly your odds improve when you have a top 5 choice, as Detroit has during Falvey's reign 4 out of 6 years, KC twice plus two other top 10's, and CWS with two top 5's. The Twins? Royce Lewis, and now Brooks Lee at #8. It's my opinion that the Twins have the second best draft and development capability in the division, and they're not far behing the Guardians, particularly when you factor in the IFA signings.
    And again, I'll mention the value of depth, where the Twins have a decided edge over all but the Guardians. Are you possibly under-valuing this?
  4. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to dxpavelka in State of the Twins Farm System - 6 Years Into Falvey's Reign.   
    Actually I'd say the prospect pool is fairly similar now to what it was then.  The difference has been the performance of the major league team--at least until the playoffs.  Of course I would be remiss to fail to mention that a good portion of the on field performance of the big league club can be attributed to folks brought on board by the previous regime.  Just sayin.  What will truly be interesting going forward is what impact changes to the draft and minor league systems will have on prospect pools of the various teams.
  5. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to Doctor Gast in State of the Twins Farm System - 6 Years Into Falvey's Reign.   
    IMO Dman is spot on. We didn't develop Joe Ryan but maybe you used him only as an example. Which further states the fact that this organization can't develop pitching which is the main reason why we hired them. There has been some bad drafts picks, evaluations and trades by present & previous FOs which has hurt  this club and farm system. 
    But we have to look at what is a farm system for? It's not for winning MiLB championships although that's great. It's for developing valuable players core & continue to supply the MLB club w/ an influx of MiLB players to compliment the core. Any redundancy needs to be traded to fill hole in the MLB team. Although I've criticized this FO for not being proactive in trades, they have evolved into a pretty good trader which finally appeared this deadline. 
    I've been very patient with this FO because they have had many bad mindsets but slowly they are evolving into a pretty good one. Pitching still needs a lot of work, they are still a long way from that "Ace Factory" that I had hoped. But as long as we can trade for some of them, I'm happy.
  6. Like
    TwinsDr2021 got a reaction from glunn in State of the Twins Farm System - 6 Years Into Falvey's Reign.   
    I think this FO has done a really good job of finding prospects that make the majors or look like a for sure thing to make the majors, which is great for using those players to fill needs on the major league roster. What they have lacked it seems is the future all star type talent. This FO inherited all stars and silver sluggers all over the diamond, what they didn't inherit besides Berrios and maybe Gibson was starting pitchers. Again for the most part this FO has used minor league players to supplement that with some good trades and thus have kept this pretty competitive the whole time they have been here. What I hoped was that by now the 17, 18 and 19 draft would have produced more or maybe higher quality by now (yes Jeffers, Larnach, Winder and others have shown some promise, I get the high school kids would be still pretty young, but the college kids are getting old fast),
  7. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to Dman in State of the Twins Farm System - 6 Years Into Falvey's Reign.   
    You forgot a few big names like Rodriguez and Jullien and they just traded Steer, CES and two good left handed pitchers which would have changed this list considerably.  To your point I don't think they have built a top 10 Farm since they have been here mainly because top picks like Rooker, Sabato and Cavaco didn't work out well and they missed on the international FA like Javier and others. 
    I think the larger point to make is that they haven't really produced much for starting pitchers which is what they were brought in to do.  Cleveland has continued to be far more successful than Falvine on the pitching side but then again they have taken risks taking pitchers early and late in several drafts.  While the Twins drafts have been balanced they just haven't found enough viable arms.  Things looked like maybe they were going to turn this year and with Ryan, Ober Winder set to play key roles things were looking better for the FO but Ober doesn't look like he will ever make it a full season as a starter and given Winders shoulder it doesn't look good for him either.  Everyone else has pretty much imploded on the farm.  Things could change next year for Balazovich, Henriquez, Canterino, Sands, Enlow but it doesn't look good at this point.  Losing Povich and Hajjar leaves the only potential fast mover as Prielipp from this years draft and we don't really know how durable he will end up being either.
    This team is going to be in a tough spot if they can't draft and develop more guys like Joe Ryan.  Constantly trading away your farm for 1.5 years of a pitcher is not a great strategy moving forward.  Not sure how they are going to get out of this mess but hopefully this years draft is a really good one and they need to replenish the pitching pipeline next year or there won't be much of one.
    I still like this FO for the most part but if they want to keep their jobs long term I think they are going to have to do better than they have been.
  8. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to bean5302 in State of the Twins Farm System - 6 Years Into Falvey's Reign.   
    I'm curious, which Falvey drafted and developed hitters were parlayed into pitchers? Pitcher Steve Hajjar and hitters Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were part of the Mahle trade just now, but I think that's literally about it.

    Kenta Maeda was for pitcher Brusdar Graterol (Terry Ryan)
    Chris Paddack was for pitcher Taylor Rogers (Bill Smith)
    Sonny Gray was for pitcher Chase Petty (Derek Falvey)
    Michael Fulmer was for pitcher Sawyer Gipson-Long (Derek Falvey)
    Jorge Lopez was for pitchers Cade Povich (Derek Falvey) Yennier Cano (Terry Ryan), and 2 other pitchers.
    Hitter Austin Martin and pitcher SWR were acquired for the best starter the Twins had developed in 15 years, Jose Berrios (Terry Ryan).

    Nelson Cruz was flipped for Joe Ryan, but Cruz was a free agent signing and it would have been quite the gamble to predict he would play as well as he did. Big kudos to Falvey for finding that deal, it was great, but it hardly involved his front office doing what they were paid to do.

    Free agency is part of the job, but not the big part which Derek Falvey was hired to address in my opinion. He was hired to build a sustainable farm system through drafting and development, especially of pitchers.
     
  9. Like
    TwinsDr2021 got a reaction from Karbo in State of the Twins Farm System - 6 Years Into Falvey's Reign.   
    I think this FO has done a really good job of finding prospects that make the majors or look like a for sure thing to make the majors, which is great for using those players to fill needs on the major league roster. What they have lacked it seems is the future all star type talent. This FO inherited all stars and silver sluggers all over the diamond, what they didn't inherit besides Berrios and maybe Gibson was starting pitchers. Again for the most part this FO has used minor league players to supplement that with some good trades and thus have kept this pretty competitive the whole time they have been here. What I hoped was that by now the 17, 18 and 19 draft would have produced more or maybe higher quality by now (yes Jeffers, Larnach, Winder and others have shown some promise, I get the high school kids would be still pretty young, but the college kids are getting old fast),
  10. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to bean5302 in State of the Twins Farm System - 6 Years Into Falvey's Reign.   
    The farm system Derek Falvey inherited had graduated Sano, Polanco, Berrios, Rosario, Kepler and Buxton in the previous 2 years.

    Compared to what? Gordon (Terry Ryan), Arraez (Terry Ryan), Miranda (Terry Ryan), Larnach, Jeffers, Winder, Ober.

    Falvey's farm system is pretty empty and he's living off the previous regime's draft picks. Larnach has nearly 500 plate appearances with a wRC+ of 93 and iffy defense at the corner outfield position. Jeffers looks to be a solid backup catcher or maybe an adequate starter. Ober was a late round pick because of injuries and those have followed him throughout his career. Winder has been rebuilt with new mechanics which added massive velocity is seems his shoulder can't handle. Both Ober and Winder look destined for bullpen roles due to durability and neither was a highly rated prospect early on.

    I'm curious, what stud Twins players are being under-appreciated due to injury right now?
  11. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to bean5302 in State of the Twins Farm System - 6 Years Into Falvey's Reign.   
    How many playoff victories and World Series appearances do the Twins have under Falvey? If you want to give him a pass for failing to improve the farm system while "adjusting and responding" to the competitive needs of the team, he'd need to show achievements higher than the Twins have seen in the past 20 years. 

    I'd be the first to forgive the state of the farm system if the Twins had some playoff victories or a World Series appearance recently. In fact, the Twins might make that happen this year so it's not like the book is closed or something. I applaud Falvey for recognizing the state of the farm system and finding a way to bring in the talent to plug holes the Twins needed to address to become a legitimate playoff caliber team this year. But there need to be results along with the adjustments.
  12. Like
    TwinsDr2021 got a reaction from bean5302 in State of the Twins Farm System - 6 Years Into Falvey's Reign.   
    I think this FO has done a really good job of finding prospects that make the majors or look like a for sure thing to make the majors, which is great for using those players to fill needs on the major league roster. What they have lacked it seems is the future all star type talent. This FO inherited all stars and silver sluggers all over the diamond, what they didn't inherit besides Berrios and maybe Gibson was starting pitchers. Again for the most part this FO has used minor league players to supplement that with some good trades and thus have kept this pretty competitive the whole time they have been here. What I hoped was that by now the 17, 18 and 19 draft would have produced more or maybe higher quality by now (yes Jeffers, Larnach, Winder and others have shown some promise, I get the high school kids would be still pretty young, but the college kids are getting old fast),
  13. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to beterday in Am I LOOKING for a complaint???   
    Agree with USAChief:  " Duffey HASNT been better lately. He's had some better results, but not due to better pitching, just better luck."  I think he has just gotten away with his regular pitching lately.  I knew he was gonna lose the game against the Brewers and felt sorry for Rocco having to go to him in the 9th.  Rocco (Falvey and Levine) are baseball people; they must also watch with a fatalistic attitude.  Must be incredibly hard to keep going back to a dried up well.
     
     
  14. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to USAFChief in Am I LOOKING for a complaint???   
    I'd say the reasoning might be: pitching Duran in the 8th gives you the best chance of there being a bottom of the 9th. With the bonus if he has a quick 8th you might also get him for the 9th. If you give up a run in the 8th,  there's a strong likelihood there ISN'T a bottom 9, and now you've lost a close game late and your best reliever spent the entire game sitting on his ***.
    As an aside, Duffey HASNT been better lately. He's had some better results, but not due to better pitching, just better luck.
    He fools virtually nobody. He gets virtually zero bad swings. Almost every swing against him is powerful and well timed. He's not reliable, no matter if he's had a couple scoreless innings recently. 
  15. Like
    TwinsDr2021 got a reaction from tarheeltwinsfan in Twins prospects that I was wrong on   
    Don't forget included in that group were Berrios, Meyer, Thorpe, Jay, Jorge, Stewart, Mejia
  16. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to tarheeltwinsfan in The Bench (Its a huge team strength gone unnoticed)   
    Really good point Ashbury. And to Roco's credit, the players seem to be able to put the team goals ahead of personal goals. That gets tricky sometimes, but this years Twins, led by veterans, Correa, Buck, Urshela, Gray and Archer, seem to have a "team first" attitude, which I thoroughly enjoy. Now, Rocco, about bunting and advancing those runners with less than 2 outs and hitting against the shift, may I humbly suggest there are some strategic changes which could produce more runs at critical times.
  17. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to tarheeltwinsfan in Twins prospects that I was wrong on   
    Makes sense to me. Thanks for your thoughtful answer.
  18. Like
    TwinsDr2021 got a reaction from tarheeltwinsfan in Twins prospects that I was wrong on   
    It is called Hope, simple as that, hope of the future is always brighter and more alluring than the present.
    Imagine if at some point during the 21 season, somebody said dream if you will the Twins are 3.5 games up on second going into the all star break (With all stars Arraez and Buxton and the Twins went out and signed Carlos frickin Correa to a one year contract and traded for Sonny Gray) , should they go for it and trade some of their top prospects, I would guess most would say heck yea because the hopes and dreams of next year are bright, but when it actually happens some of those same people are like no we shouldn't make those type of trades because our futures is the future. and why? because it diminishes their hopes and dreams of a brighter future.
    Humans are funny animals
     
  19. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to SwainZag in Twins prospects that I was wrong on   
    When I say the title I immediately thought of Romero and Arcia.  The amount of threads and pages dedicated to discussing Arcia on here/BYTO had to be in the 100s.  So many varying viewpoints on him.  If only he could have gotten regular ABs!! Lol.
    I would like to hear some prospects you thought that went the other way.  For me it was Jorge Polanco.  I never thought he would be a productive player and that calling him up as a 20 year old in 2014 was a huge mistake.  I also think they left him at SS for way too long and should have been moved to 2B years before he actually was.  
  20. Haha
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to MMMordabito in Twins prospects that I was wrong on   
    Haha .... Nothing is more blinding than single perspective prospect love.
    I'm sure I probably wrote a comment along the lines of "... there is no way I'm giving up Romero AND Gonsalves for JT Realmuto ... "
    I'll probably do it again, too. 🙃
  21. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to tony&rodney in Twins prospects that I was wrong on   
    The post and comments are why the Twins should consider trading a few prospects for relief help or make/ put together a sweet package for Luis Castillo.
  22. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to bean5302 in Twins prospects that I was wrong on   
    Romero is playing in Yokohama, Japan for the past couple years where he's had mediocre results after appearing in MLB across 2 years where he struggled. Romero also looked pretty rough at AAA in 2019 where he was too hittable and walked too many guys. He just doesn't have much of a track record of success.
    Sometimes players are just overhyped.

    Speaking of the hype machine, Brusdar Graterol is having a solid season with the Dodgers' out of their bullpen. He hasn't turned into the starter fans were hoping he could be, or the elite closer for that matter, but he is having an above average season and adding solid value. That said, chances Graterol turns lives up to the massive hype is pretty limited.
  23. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to ashbury in Sano Situation   
    Both the players suggested by the article are major leaguers, meaning that room for them both must be made on the 40-man roster.  It's hard enough to figure out how to add Sano himself back to the 40 (he's off because of being on the injured list) - so I think any trade speculation needs to include the roster implications at the same time.  What two current players get dropped from the 40-man to make room?  (And I don't think they can both be pitchers, because I don't see our FO dropping a pitcher to add a hitter.)
    And then if room is made on the 40, you still have to decide whom to remove from the 26-man major league roster - a few of our current major leaguers have minor-league options but most either can't be sent to St Paul or else are performing too well for us to want to.
    I don't have a good answer to these questions and thus I don't see the proposed trade as solving anything practical.
  24. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to tony&rodney in Mill1634's Trade Deadline Blueprint: Going for It   
    The future ....
    C = Jeffers and hopefully some help via FA/a trade
    1B = well covered with Kirilloff and Arraez leading the position and Miranda too
    2B = Polanco is taken for granted and Arraez still has a small glove for 2B
    3B = Miranda and/or Lewis can handle the position
    SS = Correa? Maybe Lewis takes care of SS, but don't quit on Palacios
    LF =  Fa / trade or Larnach
    CF = Buxton with Gordon/ Celestino still worth some playing time
    RF = Kepler, Larnach
    E. Rodriguez is the Twins best prospect but a few years away.
    So the Twins could use some new blood in time but while I'm not enamored with any of the trades suggested in the post, it is a well thought out exercise and doesn't do anything to harm the future of the MLB team. The Twins can certainly afford to part with both position players and pitchers in a few trades because their budget and roster configuration is pretty stable and the young players are already sprinkled across the roster. All of Martin, Cavaco, Severino, Wallner, Julien, Contreras, Mercedes, Steer, Sabato, Enlow, Enriquez, and Strotman are just hopefuls missing from any lists of top prospects across MLB. Matt Wallner and Steer may develop but all of the others are blocked by multiple better baseball players. The Twins will need to dangle some of their young pitchers to acquire a couple decent pitchers.
  25. Like
    TwinsDr2021 reacted to Shaitan in Mill1634's Trade Deadline Blueprint: Going for It   
    This certainly clears space on the 40 roster.
    Other than Lewis and Larnach, is anybody left in AA/AAA?
    I think some of these moves make sense, but not all combined.
×
×
  • Create New...