jmlease1

It's true.  Because I fully acknowledge that I would get roasted by the press for not doing something meaningful at the deadline.  Even if my paycheck is signed by a Pohlad and not by the press, you do have to take that into account.

Yeah, this is where I do it. And you don't. And we'd be in the same place ... damned if we did, damned if we didn't.

Agreed... You always have to consider that it takes two to tango. 
Trade deadlines would have to be chaotic with everyone in the market for starting pitching. They liked Mahle, chances are other teams like Mahle as well. Now you got to pay the price it costs to acquire Mahle. 
This price won't even matter if the Reds like the prospects that the Rays are offering. 
The front office just can't walk into trade deadline chaos like a supermarket and simply pull macaroni and cheese off the shelf and put in the basket. 
 

No matter what happens going forward with Steer and E-Strand.
We lost this trade.
Mahle will most likely never pitch in a Twins uniform again and if he does pitch in a Twins uniform... he will have to be signed as a free agent which is something we could have done if he was still with the Reds. 
We lost this trade... There is no debate on this.  
My question would be this:
I often hear fans saying things like the signs were there.
What signs? What signs could you possibly have that the front office wouldn't have?  
Why is it so easy to assume that a front office would make a deal like this knowing that there are signs that he would only throw 42 innings before needing Tommy John right before he hits free agency? 
Does that sound like something a 13 year old would do? I don't think a 13 year old would do that... so why is it so easy to assume, that a professional highly paid front office would do that.    
If the guy who runs a 3 pump convenience store in a small town in Idaho is aware of the signs... Why wouldn't the front office be aware of the signs. 

I've posted my Ultimate SSS observation from a game at Oakland before, but when I watched Steer playing first base what I noticed was a lack of nimbleness, and hand-eye coordination.  I don't see him being an asset at any defensive position on the diamond, merely "adequate".  With that as a baseline, the bar is set pretty high for his bat to cause regret.
The package we traded was a good idea.  Mahle being the choice of target is what made it a below-par gamble for a trade.  And I still don't have a good answer for who else I would have targeted at the trade deadline give that we were in first place at the time; "nobody, or some lower target and hang on to our best trade chips for the offseason," is about the closest I can come.

I think this is right. We'll see if Steer really can hit enough consistently to stick at 1B; he loses a fair amount of value if he can't play 3B. But it's also possible that he's only over there because they don't have anyone else at 1B right now. Without Votto it's pretty thin at 1B for Cincy.
CES was the player I least wanted to lose because I thought his bat might be special, but you never know how guys like him are going to go when they get to MLB. He's looking like a bad 1B or a DH, so I think chpettit19 is right: he's going to have to hit a LOT in order to make us be "haunted" by him. let's see if he can hit MLB sliders before we decide he's the next David Ortiz.
They rolled the dice on Tyler Mahle being healthy enough to stabilize the rotation last season and be a real contributor this year and crapped out. It's a mark against the front office in their ledger (and maybe they learned a lesson about how some players can't be trusted to tell you the truth about their health?) but I don't think they were wrong in the evaluations of Steer, CES, or Hajjar and how much prospect capital they gave up. 
If the expectation is that we never trade away any prospect that could be good, or even really good, but still expect the front office to bring back real talent in trades, then we have an expectations problem as well. there was a non-zero part of this board that wanted to deal Royce Lewis for pitching last year, and Brooks Lee's name has been thrown around too.

I think this is right. We'll see if Steer really can hit enough consistently to stick at 1B; he loses a fair amount of value if he can't play 3B. But it's also possible that he's only over there because they don't have anyone else at 1B right now. Without Votto it's pretty thin at 1B for Cincy.
CES was the player I least wanted to lose because I thought his bat might be special, but you never know how guys like him are going to go when they get to MLB. He's looking like a bad 1B or a DH, so I think chpettit19 is right: he's going to have to hit a LOT in order to make us be "haunted" by him. let's see if he can hit MLB sliders before we decide he's the next David Ortiz.
They rolled the dice on Tyler Mahle being healthy enough to stabilize the rotation last season and be a real contributor this year and crapped out. It's a mark against the front office in their ledger (and maybe they learned a lesson about how some players can't be trusted to tell you the truth about their health?) but I don't think they were wrong in the evaluations of Steer, CES, or Hajjar and how much prospect capital they gave up. 
If the expectation is that we never trade away any prospect that could be good, or even really good, but still expect the front office to bring back real talent in trades, then we have an expectations problem as well. there was a non-zero part of this board that wanted to deal Royce Lewis for pitching last year, and Brooks Lee's name has been thrown around too.

I agree part of why he's at 1B now may certainly just be roster needs, but they have a number of much better fielders coming up behind him pretty quick, and I'd guess the odds are that he is destined for far more 1B than anywhere else in the IF when the rest of this prospect wave hits.
We'll see how it all turns out. Long ways to go in their careers. That trade definitely isn't going to be a win, though. 

I think this is right. We'll see if Steer really can hit enough consistently to stick at 1B; he loses a fair amount of value if he can't play 3B. But it's also possible that he's only over there because they don't have anyone else at 1B right now. Without Votto it's pretty thin at 1B for Cincy.
CES was the player I least wanted to lose because I thought his bat might be special, but you never know how guys like him are going to go when they get to MLB. He's looking like a bad 1B or a DH, so I think chpettit19 is right: he's going to have to hit a LOT in order to make us be "haunted" by him. let's see if he can hit MLB sliders before we decide he's the next David Ortiz.
They rolled the dice on Tyler Mahle being healthy enough to stabilize the rotation last season and be a real contributor this year and crapped out. It's a mark against the front office in their ledger (and maybe they learned a lesson about how some players can't be trusted to tell you the truth about their health?) but I don't think they were wrong in the evaluations of Steer, CES, or Hajjar and how much prospect capital they gave up. 
If the expectation is that we never trade away any prospect that could be good, or even really good, but still expect the front office to bring back real talent in trades, then we have an expectations problem as well. there was a non-zero part of this board that wanted to deal Royce Lewis for pitching last year, and Brooks Lee's name has been thrown around too.

From what I've witnessed on the road this season, no one in baseball receives the constant hate that Correa does in opposing ballparks. Dodgers Stadium was almost criminal at times. I don't know how a human being hears that time after time and doesn't let it impact his body during an at bat. Hearing the boos at home didn't help, because why would they.
Until that all stops, its going to be an impossible hill to climb I'm afraid. It's one thing when the Astros come to town and the whole team gets hated on...you can build around that and rally against it. The personal hate towards Correa, with the stuff that went down that he had no control over this off-season getting added into the boos by jealous and non-millionaire fans, impact a body's ability to focus on the hardest task in professional sports...hitting a round ball with a round bat.
His fielding hasn't sufferred...because he doesn't get booed out there.
Hoping that time heals the wounds...but not thinking its a quick fix.
Steve

I was always more concerned about Encarnacion-Strand. His batting numbers were starting to look scary last year, and this year he has been killing it. It is hard to find hitters that can perform like he has. I wish him luck, but will be sad if it translates to the majors. 

The determining factor, to me, on them haunting the Twins is what Miranda, Kirilloff, Buxton, Lewis, Julien, and Lee do over the next 6+ years. Steer is down to 1B/3B/DH. CES is down to 1B/DH. The Twins took a calculated risk that some combination of the 6 guys I named earlier would be a better overall combination at 1B/3B/DH for the Twins. Or at least that a combination of them at those positions, plus Mahle in the rotation for a year and a half, would be as good as Steer, CES, and Hajjar for 6+ years.
CES has to be Nelson Cruz to be a truly haunting player. I would bet against that happening, but you never really know. That's the game you play when making trades. If Buxton is a fulltime, or most-time, DH over the next 6 years CES didn't really have a place to play here. To me, the bigger thing haunting the Twins in that scenario is Buxton being a DH.
Steer has already been pushed down to having most of his time at 1B now. The bar to clear offensively for being a "haunting" player there is awfully high. I would bet against that happening as well, but he's looked good for the last month. 
Both of their defensive limitations lessen the likelihood that they're truly haunting losses. But Steer's current batting line sure would look nice in the Twins lineup right now. I wouldn't replace Lewis or Kirilloff with him, though.

I don't know that they've had more issues with 1st round picks than other teams under this regime. They've made 9 picks in the first round since 2017. 4 of them have made it to MLB under the Twins (Lewis, Rooker, Larnach, and Wallner) and 3 of those are still with the franchise. 2 are looking like busts (Cavaco and Sabato), though they are still with the franchise. 1 was dealt for was has to be considered a win in Sonny Gray (Petty) who has been excellent for 2 seasons and will likely net us a similar draft pick next year. Miller looks good enough defensively to make the majors even if his hit tool doesn't develop, and Brooks Lee looks like a potential star.
Potential Stars: Lewis, Lee Solid MLB players: Larnach, Wallner Made it to MLB: Rooker Should make it to MLB: Miller Traded for quality MLB asset: Petty Bust: Cavcao, Sabato Look at say, the White Sox in a similar time period. They've only had 6 picks (no compensatory picks), but have also picked a bit higher than the Twins over the last 6 years. (average pick for Twins: 16. ChiSox: 13.)
Potential Stars: Montgomery Solid MLB players: Madrigal, Burger, Vaughn Made it to MLB: Crochet Schultz is basically exactly where Petty was for the Twins: HS pitcher with talent, not a top 100 prospect. Chicago hasn't had the misses the Twins did with Cavaco and Sabato, but they've also picked a bit higher overall and had fewer bites at the apple. (I understand if people think I'm overestimating Larnach or Wallner by calling them "solid MLB players" right now...but I do think it's reasonable to lump them in with players like Burger/Madrigal/Vaughn)

He's got the arm to be a quality corner OF, but he needs to keep working on his recognition and route-running because right now he's a liability in the OF. (the throw he made while up with the Twins to nail the runner at 2B was brilliant, but it was also on a ball that most OF simply catch without too much difficulty and he twisted himself around trying to get a line on it and let it hit the wall) He also still has deeply concerning contact numbers that aren't all that much of an issue against AAA pitching, but are problematic at the majors. Maybe he won't K in MLB like he did in 2022 next time he's up, but expecting him to hit like he did in his first stint(s) this season for an extended period and not pile up huge K numbers is overly-optimistic. That said, he's over-qualified for AAA at this point and the only thing holding him back from pushing kepler is his fairly awful defense.
Severino is doing a great job this season. It really looks like he's figured it out; ever since getting out of the FSL he's hit pretty darn well, and when he's repeated a level he's improved his performance since then as well. I think that's meaningful. The real question is: does he have a defensive home, or is he a player whose best position is "hitter"?
 

I don't know that they've had more issues with 1st round picks than other teams under this regime. They've made 9 picks in the first round since 2017. 4 of them have made it to MLB under the Twins (Lewis, Rooker, Larnach, and Wallner) and 3 of those are still with the franchise. 2 are looking like busts (Cavaco and Sabato), though they are still with the franchise. 1 was dealt for was has to be considered a win in Sonny Gray (Petty) who has been excellent for 2 seasons and will likely net us a similar draft pick next year. Miller looks good enough defensively to make the majors even if his hit tool doesn't develop, and Brooks Lee looks like a potential star.
Potential Stars: Lewis, Lee Solid MLB players: Larnach, Wallner Made it to MLB: Rooker Should make it to MLB: Miller Traded for quality MLB asset: Petty Bust: Cavcao, Sabato Look at say, the White Sox in a similar time period. They've only had 6 picks (no compensatory picks), but have also picked a bit higher than the Twins over the last 6 years. (average pick for Twins: 16. ChiSox: 13.)
Potential Stars: Montgomery Solid MLB players: Madrigal, Burger, Vaughn Made it to MLB: Crochet Schultz is basically exactly where Petty was for the Twins: HS pitcher with talent, not a top 100 prospect. Chicago hasn't had the misses the Twins did with Cavaco and Sabato, but they've also picked a bit higher overall and had fewer bites at the apple. (I understand if people think I'm overestimating Larnach or Wallner by calling them "solid MLB players" right now...but I do think it's reasonable to lump them in with players like Burger/Madrigal/Vaughn)

He's got the arm to be a quality corner OF, but he needs to keep working on his recognition and route-running because right now he's a liability in the OF. (the throw he made while up with the Twins to nail the runner at 2B was brilliant, but it was also on a ball that most OF simply catch without too much difficulty and he twisted himself around trying to get a line on it and let it hit the wall) He also still has deeply concerning contact numbers that aren't all that much of an issue against AAA pitching, but are problematic at the majors. Maybe he won't K in MLB like he did in 2022 next time he's up, but expecting him to hit like he did in his first stint(s) this season for an extended period and not pile up huge K numbers is overly-optimistic. That said, he's over-qualified for AAA at this point and the only thing holding him back from pushing kepler is his fairly awful defense.
Severino is doing a great job this season. It really looks like he's figured it out; ever since getting out of the FSL he's hit pretty darn well, and when he's repeated a level he's improved his performance since then as well. I think that's meaningful. The real question is: does he have a defensive home, or is he a player whose best position is "hitter"?
 

He's got the arm to be a quality corner OF, but he needs to keep working on his recognition and route-running because right now he's a liability in the OF. (the throw he made while up with the Twins to nail the runner at 2B was brilliant, but it was also on a ball that most OF simply catch without too much difficulty and he twisted himself around trying to get a line on it and let it hit the wall) He also still has deeply concerning contact numbers that aren't all that much of an issue against AAA pitching, but are problematic at the majors. Maybe he won't K in MLB like he did in 2022 next time he's up, but expecting him to hit like he did in his first stint(s) this season for an extended period and not pile up huge K numbers is overly-optimistic. That said, he's over-qualified for AAA at this point and the only thing holding him back from pushing kepler is his fairly awful defense.
Severino is doing a great job this season. It really looks like he's figured it out; ever since getting out of the FSL he's hit pretty darn well, and when he's repeated a level he's improved his performance since then as well. I think that's meaningful. The real question is: does he have a defensive home, or is he a player whose best position is "hitter"?
 

Great to see Miranda have a good night. The start of a run? Sure hope so.
Wallner has the physical ability to be a decent OF if he can just learn to read the ball better and take better routes. He's very fast for such a big man, just takes him a step to get going. His arm is special. He can be decent, but he needs work. Other than that, a roughly 30% K rate us acceptable if he also hits a little, continues to put up good BB rates, and mash when he barrels up. When veterans play because they are veterans and provide little to no offense at all for a team struggling for runs, you need to look at a prospect who might jump start that offense.
I'm not saying Maeda is done as a SP. Nice to see his velocity back at 91, even though his game has never been about pure velocity. But even though his incentives are tied to GS and IP and the such, would he consider a move to the pen in order to be part of a winning team? Struggle in the rotation at 35yo or possibly excel in the pen?
Tough luck for Enlow last night. Should they have kept him in for 1 more batter and try to finish the inning off? His pen sure didn't help him. Severino has a ML future if the K's don't rise any further and he can be solid at 2B/3B.
 

He's got the arm to be a quality corner OF, but he needs to keep working on his recognition and route-running because right now he's a liability in the OF. (the throw he made while up with the Twins to nail the runner at 2B was brilliant, but it was also on a ball that most OF simply catch without too much difficulty and he twisted himself around trying to get a line on it and let it hit the wall) He also still has deeply concerning contact numbers that aren't all that much of an issue against AAA pitching, but are problematic at the majors. Maybe he won't K in MLB like he did in 2022 next time he's up, but expecting him to hit like he did in his first stint(s) this season for an extended period and not pile up huge K numbers is overly-optimistic. That said, he's over-qualified for AAA at this point and the only thing holding him back from pushing kepler is his fairly awful defense.
Severino is doing a great job this season. It really looks like he's figured it out; ever since getting out of the FSL he's hit pretty darn well, and when he's repeated a level he's improved his performance since then as well. I think that's meaningful. The real question is: does he have a defensive home, or is he a player whose best position is "hitter"?
 

Still not really sure how to rate Matthews or Lewis; they're doing everything asked of them, but as college pitchers in A-ball I don't exactly know if it's that meaningful against this level of competition. I do love the fact that Lewis throws a knuckleball. Cossetti is a little bit in this boat too; if he can stick at catcher and keep hitting now that he's been promoted he could be an interesting riser in Twins Prospect Rankings (but he's basically never going to make a national prospect list unless he starts putting up extreme video game stats; they always downgrade older players)
Kala'i Rosario is someone I thought should have been pushed back into the prospect rankings when the update was done, and he's only confirmed that opinion. He's hitting well, he's only 20, and all the numbers around him look good. K's are more manageable, walks are up, power is looking good and might project to more, and he's making good contact. 

Still not really sure how to rate Matthews or Lewis; they're doing everything asked of them, but as college pitchers in A-ball I don't exactly know if it's that meaningful against this level of competition. I do love the fact that Lewis throws a knuckleball. Cossetti is a little bit in this boat too; if he can stick at catcher and keep hitting now that he's been promoted he could be an interesting riser in Twins Prospect Rankings (but he's basically never going to make a national prospect list unless he starts putting up extreme video game stats; they always downgrade older players)
Kala'i Rosario is someone I thought should have been pushed back into the prospect rankings when the update was done, and he's only confirmed that opinion. He's hitting well, he's only 20, and all the numbers around him look good. K's are more manageable, walks are up, power is looking good and might project to more, and he's making good contact. 

I like all the players mentioned but let me start with who I like the least.  I could regret saying this but I don't love Jenkins as a pick for Minnesota.  We have young outfielders on the rise in Rosario and Rodriguez and a ton of guys right behind him in Mercedes, Jose Rodriguez, Nova and Churio.  If you believe in Aguiar he might be Jenkins right now with less plate discipline.  Maybe Jenkins is the next Crews but I don't love him at number 5 for the Twins.
Gonzalaz doesn't seem to have great power nor does he have great speed. That alone should take him out of the top 5 IMO but the fact we we have a slightly better version of him in Lee makes me even less interested.  I want more upside at 5 than he provides.
Langford might also be redundant in the system but if he fell he has a power speed profile that is intriguing to me.  I think the Twins would scoop him up in a hurry if he was there. The bat and the fact he runs well make him a good get at number 5.
I think Clark fits upside and team need the best of any player in the top 5.  We don't have a player with elite speed in center in the system.  He is a pretty solid 5 tool player with only power being a question mark.  Hearing some rumblings about makeup but he still would be my pick if available at number 5.
Teel is growing on me.  A catcher that can move well on the bases with a good eye at the plate and solid hit tool with power at a position with few offensive standouts seems like a nice get. I don't know a ton about his defense and if they don't think he sticks at that position I would prefer other players.  If they do see catching as his future I like him at number 5 just fine.
I still like Wilson if Clark is gone and maybe even if Clark is there as well.  He could be this years Zach Neto.  With only 5 K's this year and only 7 last year he gets the bat to the ball. He could be an Arraez type hitter if those numbers come close to holding.  He is not facing elite competition but I don't think Neto did either.  It looks like he can probably stick at short and the only real question has been power.
There are going to be lot's of good hitters to choose from at number 5.  We just need to get the one that is going to reach their ceiling. 

Still not really sure how to rate Matthews or Lewis; they're doing everything asked of them, but as college pitchers in A-ball I don't exactly know if it's that meaningful against this level of competition. I do love the fact that Lewis throws a knuckleball. Cossetti is a little bit in this boat too; if he can stick at catcher and keep hitting now that he's been promoted he could be an interesting riser in Twins Prospect Rankings (but he's basically never going to make a national prospect list unless he starts putting up extreme video game stats; they always downgrade older players)
Kala'i Rosario is someone I thought should have been pushed back into the prospect rankings when the update was done, and he's only confirmed that opinion. He's hitting well, he's only 20, and all the numbers around him look good. K's are more manageable, walks are up, power is looking good and might project to more, and he's making good contact. 

Making a change on players who signed at 16 wouldn't impact any of the players you've listed, though. I think it would be a mixed bag for the players: it would reduce some of the freedom (fewer players getting minor-league free agency at age 22), but also might position younger players to have a better development track if teams aren't having to make a decision on a low-A ball guy as early. I'm literally only suggesting this be considered as an adjustment for players who sign before they are age 18.
Ober, Wallner, Ryan, Varland, and Julien all were college players, which is the biggest reason they got their later starts in pro ball. But none of them were super-high picks either (Wallner was the only 1st round pick in the bunch and he was a supplemental pick; none of the others went above round 7) whereas Buxton and Correa were two of the absolute best prospects in the country, being the 1st and 2nd overall picks in their draft. So the comp is a little out of whack: Buxton and Correa didn't just get more cracks at paydays because they started at 18. they got it because they were the absolute best talents.

There's a reasonable argument that the clock maybe shouldn't start ticking on them for Rule 5 service time until they hit 18 or something. Because it can be pretty tough on the roster spots to protect a guy in A-ball who is still 2-3 years away, but is already pushing his service time because he was signed internationally at 16. Especially when they haven't played full-season pro ball for their first 2-3 seasons.