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jmlease1

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  1. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from Minny505 in Analyzing Outcomes for Recent Free Agent Relievers   
    Excellent reminder on the fungibility of relievers. I'm not interested in giving relievers in their mid-to-late 30's long term deals (3+ years), and I'm really not interested in giving them those deals while paying a premium for a "proven closer".
    Would I like the Twins to sign a good RHP for the bullpen for next season? yes indeed. But I'd rather get 2 years of a guy like Trevor May for $6-8M per than fling $12-15M at a Kenley Jackson or Craig Kimbrel for 2-3 years and pray they don't collapse.
  2. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from Twins33 in Analyzing Outcomes for Recent Free Agent Relievers   
    Excellent reminder on the fungibility of relievers. I'm not interested in giving relievers in their mid-to-late 30's long term deals (3+ years), and I'm really not interested in giving them those deals while paying a premium for a "proven closer".
    Would I like the Twins to sign a good RHP for the bullpen for next season? yes indeed. But I'd rather get 2 years of a guy like Trevor May for $6-8M per than fling $12-15M at a Kenley Jackson or Craig Kimbrel for 2-3 years and pray they don't collapse.
  3. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from Mike Sixel in Eddie Rosario   
    If you only look at what he's done in Atlanta, sure. but he wasn't anywhere near Polanco based on his Cleveland stats. Alex Kirilloff accumulated as much bWAR as Eddie Rosario did while battling a debilitating wrist injury that eventually ended his season.
    Do you think Cleveland is happy with the signing? They traded him to dump salary.
    I wish Rosario nothing but success, but the Twins made the correct decision when they declined to give him $9M in arbitration. he wasn't going to take less with the twins (who almost certainly would have chosen to keep him over Cave, if he'd been willing to stay for $5-6M), so he took the money in Cleveland, and underwhelmed. In a short stint in Atlanta he's been revived, which is great for him and them. He'll play in the majors next year, but he's not going to get a 3 year deal and he's not going to get an AAV of $8M+, because teams are going to look at his whole year and not just 100 ABs with Atlanta.
  4. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from Danchat in Analyzing Outcomes for Recent Free Agent Relievers   
    Excellent reminder on the fungibility of relievers. I'm not interested in giving relievers in their mid-to-late 30's long term deals (3+ years), and I'm really not interested in giving them those deals while paying a premium for a "proven closer".
    Would I like the Twins to sign a good RHP for the bullpen for next season? yes indeed. But I'd rather get 2 years of a guy like Trevor May for $6-8M per than fling $12-15M at a Kenley Jackson or Craig Kimbrel for 2-3 years and pray they don't collapse.
  5. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from beckmt in Analyzing Outcomes for Recent Free Agent Relievers   
    I don't disagree, but the problem is the entire fanbase might have PTSD in relation to Colome...and if we do, does the team? But seriously, I'm not sure his style is right overall for the Twins 'pen. He's basically a cutter guy who's hard to square up on if he keeps it out of the heart of the plate, but struggled to do just that at times with the Twins. I'd prefer to get a RH arm who really brings some gas and strike outs to the party. (I'm not sure who that will be at this point, but there should be someone?)
    Twins will almost certainly run out a 8-man bullpen again, and I like 6 internal options right now: Rogers, Alcala, Duffey, Thielbar, Moran, and John Gant. (I think Gant is a better option for the bullpen. Others might prefer running Minaya back) I really do believe in Moran and his change-up. I'd look to find this year's Trevor May to fill one more spot in FA and look in-house for the last one, in part to keep the Twins from getting stuck in the sunk-cost fallacy. We got to a solid bullpen by the end of the year when we started churning arms until we found the combo that worked. Sign a bunch of veterans to $1M+ contracts and they'd better perform out the gate, because those guys probably don't get churned if/when they struggle.
    It's a tough world out there for relief pitchers because increasingly there's no "middle class" and more teams are seeing everyone that's not on the top end as being fungible...and they might not be wrong.
  6. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from roger in Analyzing Outcomes for Recent Free Agent Relievers   
    I don't disagree, but the problem is the entire fanbase might have PTSD in relation to Colome...and if we do, does the team? But seriously, I'm not sure his style is right overall for the Twins 'pen. He's basically a cutter guy who's hard to square up on if he keeps it out of the heart of the plate, but struggled to do just that at times with the Twins. I'd prefer to get a RH arm who really brings some gas and strike outs to the party. (I'm not sure who that will be at this point, but there should be someone?)
    Twins will almost certainly run out a 8-man bullpen again, and I like 6 internal options right now: Rogers, Alcala, Duffey, Thielbar, Moran, and John Gant. (I think Gant is a better option for the bullpen. Others might prefer running Minaya back) I really do believe in Moran and his change-up. I'd look to find this year's Trevor May to fill one more spot in FA and look in-house for the last one, in part to keep the Twins from getting stuck in the sunk-cost fallacy. We got to a solid bullpen by the end of the year when we started churning arms until we found the combo that worked. Sign a bunch of veterans to $1M+ contracts and they'd better perform out the gate, because those guys probably don't get churned if/when they struggle.
    It's a tough world out there for relief pitchers because increasingly there's no "middle class" and more teams are seeing everyone that's not on the top end as being fungible...and they might not be wrong.
  7. Like
    jmlease1 reacted to DocBauer in 3 Free Agent Pitching Additions Who Fit the Twins Offseason Strategy   
    A couple brief comments regarding the initial 4 points posted first:
    1] I firmly believe the Twins are at least 50/50 on signjng one of the top FA arms. They went hard after Darvish and were one of the finalists. The Cubs went an extra year and "won" his services. (Might have bumped the A/V a bit I can't remember). They were serious about Wheeler at $20M plus but had the door slammed immediately as he just didn't want to leave the east coast. But the point is, they HAVE previously looked at the big arms. I think they WILL look again. And if they succeed, well, awesome! But it will impact point #2.
    2] I DO think the Twins are going to trade for a rotation piece. I'm oblivious as to who and a bit sketchy as to how. Odorizzi and Maeda were virtual steals for a milb player, but can they do it again? Just a gut feeling, but I think the FO is looking to trade from their milb depth for an arm and wanting to keep the ML roster mostly intact at this point. I mean, we're talking about a re-tool vs a re-build so I don't see more than one roster fixture being moved.
    3] I believe Pineda is a virtual lock for about $8M. Maybe with a couple kickers thrown in. But to me, that's a re-sign and agree it's not like some "on the market" signing. And so that still leaves 2 holes to fill.
    4] I agree reinforcements are close. Could be as many as 4 or 5 ready by mid-season despite the disappointments of delayed development in 2021. But we're talking mid-season more than likely. You can't open 2022 on wishes and prayers to begin the season.
    I'm out on Greinke due to age and his previous reluctance to include the Twins as a tradeable team. Not saying I don't make a call to see if he's suddenly had a change of heart, but I don't expect it.
    I confess I don't know a lot about DeSclafini, but looked up his numbers. I'm OK with him but a little "meh". Not crazy about being 32yo, but if he really figuresd some things out and made some nice adjustments, he could be just as good working with Johnson. But are we talking a 1yr deal or something more? He could be an outstanding 1yr option, maybe some sort of 1+1 or option year, but I'm not willing for more than that at this point.
    Gray and Ray should almost be included together as they've both been mentioned in regard to the Twins as "potentials" the past few years as much as Stroman. Same age and similar careers. I could see either on 1 plus deal and could be OK.
    I think the Twins are out on any of the TOP SS options unless they wash out in the SP FA market. That's how and why they signed Donaldson. BUT, if they can bring in a couple solid arms via trade and FA...heaven and baseball gods forbid they bring in 2 FA that are quality without breaking the bank...they could still make a strike in that area. But do they need to? And I'm being serious here. With a better pen and a little better health the second half, the Twins basically played .500 ball with a patchwork rotation. What could they accomplish with a couple better rotation pieces to lead the rotation?
    Basic logic and finances and what little we actually know and speculate about what we know about the FA options available, Stoman and Ray and Gray make the most sense as FA signings if you're looking for someone to lead the staff. I believe Stoman made $12M last year and pretty sure that was his biggest $ year to date. He's been tied to the Twins for years now as a very similar pitcher to Berrios. (FWIW). He would seem to be the perfect target for a 4 or 5yr deal at $18-20M per deal that doesn't break the bank or preclude the Twins from making additional signings or moves. Maybe most import, he's been a model of health and consistency. You could even throw in an "out clause" after the 2yrs if you really needed to, allowing for the rise of milb talent. I think Ray and Gray offer the same potential as Stoman, without as much consistency, and might come in a little cheaper. Do the Twins have to sign Scherzer or Thor or Bauer to compete? Hell no! But these are a couple of arms listed who are still young enough, proven enough, talented enough to actually head the rotation without blowing up payroll.
    IF you make the right and smart move, you STILL have the "luxury" of a 2nd FA signing or a smart trade to bring in that Odorizzi or Maeda trade to fill the #2 spot. Such a trade could a steal as they've done before, hopefully, or it could include a couple quality milb prospects and one ML player like Kepler or Sano along with someone like Sands, just for example.
    Make no mistake, I'm open to a lot of potential scenarios here to bring in a couple quality SP options to lead our 2022 rotation. I'm inclined to keep the ML roster intact as much as possible as 2 steps forward and 2 steps back doesn't lead to success. But the Twins have enough talent and depth and $ available to make one or two smart moves to re-tool this roster without blowing up the roster or the system to make 2022 a competitive team.
    And whether they sign one of FA SP pitcher mentioned previously, as a primary or secondary, I have thoughts about guys like Rodon or Bundy. Would you bet big $ on Rodon?  One big year for Rodon? Or would you play it safe for Bundy who has flashed and might be primed for a good year with Johnson and the Twins after a career with Baltimore and the Angels?
    Sorry to be long winded, but there are a lot of different venues for this FO to follow the next couple of months to add and re-tool this rotation.
  8. Like
    jmlease1 reacted to DocBauer in Analyzing Outcomes for Recent Free Agent Relievers   
    I agree with the basic sentiment that signing a big $ BP arm seldom makes sense or turns out right. History shows this as being a crap shoot, but then again, FA in general can be that way I guess. That doesn't mean the Twins shouldn't sign SOMEONE they think has real value for $6-7M-ish to augment the back end of the pen. I don't know who that guy is right now I'm sorry to say. 
    We keep talking about making a trade for a quality SP with a couple years of control. But what about a trade for a BP arm from a team not expected to compete in 2022, OR, a team needing a little help somewhere who has a setup arm they would be willing to deal? That used to be a common way for teams to acquire a closer, get the setup guy from someone else who may be ready for the next step.
    Other than trading for Reardon, way back in the day, and nabbing Nathan from the Giants as, you guessed it, a setup man ready for an expanded role, the Twins excelled in developing their closer from converted starters within their system. Aguillera, Perkins, Trombley, Guardado are some examples. (Aguillera was acquired as a SP and then later converted). That is the best way to go to be sure. But we don't have THAT GUY at the moment. Alcala might be the next opportunity, but he's just taking that first step to being a reliable back end arm. Duran could be as well, but I'm sure as hell not going to give up on him as a SP at this point. Canterino is the same, but further away.
    They really, really need ONE ARM they believe in to join Rogers, Duffey, Thielbar and Alcala on that back end. And nobody wants to hear this, and I don't want to say it, but until someone shows me a real FA or trade target that makes sense....forgive me....I still have to wonder if Colome isn't a viable option. At some point, we have to forget April and May last year and look at his career and what he did from about June 1st on. I hope they can do better for the same $ or a bump, but I think he needs to be considered as a 1yr option. 
  9. Like
    jmlease1 reacted to se7799 in Analyzing Outcomes for Recent Free Agent Relievers   
    I honestly believe our best options for relievers is to develop them in house.  I'd rather trade for, or pay for top end starters.  But so many good closers/relievers are converted or non successful starters.  We have witnessed this from our own team in the past few years.  Maybe a couple of our minor league starters whom can not handle a full seasons workload could become high end relievers soon.
  10. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from tarheeltwinsfan in Analyzing Outcomes for Recent Free Agent Relievers   
    Excellent reminder on the fungibility of relievers. I'm not interested in giving relievers in their mid-to-late 30's long term deals (3+ years), and I'm really not interested in giving them those deals while paying a premium for a "proven closer".
    Would I like the Twins to sign a good RHP for the bullpen for next season? yes indeed. But I'd rather get 2 years of a guy like Trevor May for $6-8M per than fling $12-15M at a Kenley Jackson or Craig Kimbrel for 2-3 years and pray they don't collapse.
  11. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from TopGunn#22 in Analyzing Outcomes for Recent Free Agent Relievers   
    Excellent reminder on the fungibility of relievers. I'm not interested in giving relievers in their mid-to-late 30's long term deals (3+ years), and I'm really not interested in giving them those deals while paying a premium for a "proven closer".
    Would I like the Twins to sign a good RHP for the bullpen for next season? yes indeed. But I'd rather get 2 years of a guy like Trevor May for $6-8M per than fling $12-15M at a Kenley Jackson or Craig Kimbrel for 2-3 years and pray they don't collapse.
  12. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from DocBauer in Analyzing Outcomes for Recent Free Agent Relievers   
    Excellent reminder on the fungibility of relievers. I'm not interested in giving relievers in their mid-to-late 30's long term deals (3+ years), and I'm really not interested in giving them those deals while paying a premium for a "proven closer".
    Would I like the Twins to sign a good RHP for the bullpen for next season? yes indeed. But I'd rather get 2 years of a guy like Trevor May for $6-8M per than fling $12-15M at a Kenley Jackson or Craig Kimbrel for 2-3 years and pray they don't collapse.
  13. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from glunn in 3 Free Agent Pitching Additions Who Fit the Twins Offseason Strategy   
    Zack Greinke is interesting. Feels a bit like a boom/bust candidate? Is the drop-off this season due to him finally getting old, or is he going to have a bounceback season for someone and be a really nice starter again? He's been successful before without a huge K rate, but should we be more alarmed that in a season where everyone was striking out a million times his rate dropped sharply? Lot of veteran savvy and know-how for guys like Ober/Ryan and the rest of the young guys who are going to get some chances...but also might just be, you know...old. He does seem to know how to stay healthy.
    If something higher tier doesn't present itself he's someone I would study and evaluate really hard. but I'll admit to a bias: I've always liked him and I'm a huge fan, even if he's been with the damn cheatin' Astros the last 2 1/2 seasons.
  14. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from glunn in Analyzing Outcomes for Recent Free Agent Relievers   
    Excellent reminder on the fungibility of relievers. I'm not interested in giving relievers in their mid-to-late 30's long term deals (3+ years), and I'm really not interested in giving them those deals while paying a premium for a "proven closer".
    Would I like the Twins to sign a good RHP for the bullpen for next season? yes indeed. But I'd rather get 2 years of a guy like Trevor May for $6-8M per than fling $12-15M at a Kenley Jackson or Craig Kimbrel for 2-3 years and pray they don't collapse.
  15. Like
    jmlease1 reacted to Trov in Analyzing Outcomes for Recent Free Agent Relievers   
    I have never been a fan of going out to sign FA relievers to big deal.  One, relievers can be so volatile in terms of output.  You can find guys out of no where or guys that have long string of success flop.  Investing large sums to them never seem to pan out all that well. 
    I hope the team does not make in big splashes in the RP department.   
  16. Like
    jmlease1 reacted to bean5302 in Pitching Prospect Louie Varland Tells All   
    Agreed. AA is a big leap forward in terms of talent, but I think the biggest difference is going to be how the AA hitters barrel balls. That said, the leap from Low-A to High-A is pretty big too, in my opinion.
    MLB >> AAA > AA >>> A+ >> A- > Rk
    If Varland is able to produce similar results at AA without a significant jump in walk rate, I'd be fully confident in him having some success at the MLB level. It seems like the only thing which which derails pitchers above AA is control.
  17. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from bean5302 in Pitching Prospect Louie Varland Tells All   
    Absolutely correct. Especially for guys in A-ball where even if they have an already top line breaking pitch the command will almost always need work.
    A-ball pitchers are are funny. It's easy to get super excited about a guy and just as easy to find 5 reasons why they're not going to make it.
    I feel like the jump to AA is a big delineator for pitchers: it's harder to simply overwhelm guys with stuff, the hitters have a more advanced approach and won't chase nearly as much, and the hitters have also been exposed to a lot more quality pitching and aren't getting surprised as easily. The age range tends to smooth out a bit too: few teenagers (if any) and more bunching around 23-25. (Wichita's average age was 24.7) If Varland kicks butt in AA, I'm going from intrigued and hopeful to really excited in a big hurry.
  18. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from Trov in Analyzing Outcomes for Recent Free Agent Relievers   
    Excellent reminder on the fungibility of relievers. I'm not interested in giving relievers in their mid-to-late 30's long term deals (3+ years), and I'm really not interested in giving them those deals while paying a premium for a "proven closer".
    Would I like the Twins to sign a good RHP for the bullpen for next season? yes indeed. But I'd rather get 2 years of a guy like Trevor May for $6-8M per than fling $12-15M at a Kenley Jackson or Craig Kimbrel for 2-3 years and pray they don't collapse.
  19. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from Heiny in Better Late Than Never   
    Will you come back an apologize when he doesn't sign a long-term deal with Toronto this off-season? Berrios wants to test free agency, and has made that clear. They didn't trade him because he wanted a market-rate deal; they traded him because the only way to lock him up long term was to offer something well above market rate, otherwise they were risking him going elsewhere for nothing.
    We have an excellent chance to compete in 2022 if we can add the right pitching moves and at least one of about 5 quality pitching prospects steps forward. The lineup is good enough to compete. The idea the franchise has "no belly to spend" is a canard: did you forget Josh Donaldson? Coming off an excellent season they spent significant money to take an very good lineup and try to make it a great one. 
    But never let reality get in the way of a chance to call the Pohlads cheap or the front office incompetent...
  20. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from Heiny in One Fan's Opinion: Cleaning the Clubhouse in Three Steps   
    I think people have pretty well covered the Simmons issue, lol. (I'm in agreement: his defense was worth, his offense was too putrid to be allowed near a twins lineup again, etc)
    I'm a 100% no on signing Cruz, much as I loved him as a player here. Age is undefeated. Eventually it gets all of us, and as special as Cruz is, he's going to hit that wall too and I'd rather not be holding the bag when it does since he's already off the team (and we got spectacular value for him). We've got plenty of guys worth rotating through the DH spot, so I'd rather keep it open to ensure that someone like Arraez has a spot to hit in, Donaldson can take a break without losing us his bat, Kirilloff can take some reps at 1B without Sano being forced to take a seat, etc. Better chances of keeping some of these hitters healthy and productive, while still giving opportunities to young guys like Miranda too. Beyond that, he's going to command $10M if the NL adds the DH easily, and I'd rather spend that on pitching/SS.
    I loved the Boomstick. Great guy, great signing, great player...but this would sadly be a reunion that i think would end in tears rather than cheers.
  21. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from MN_ExPat in Eddie Rosario   
    If you only look at what he's done in Atlanta, sure. but he wasn't anywhere near Polanco based on his Cleveland stats. Alex Kirilloff accumulated as much bWAR as Eddie Rosario did while battling a debilitating wrist injury that eventually ended his season.
    Do you think Cleveland is happy with the signing? They traded him to dump salary.
    I wish Rosario nothing but success, but the Twins made the correct decision when they declined to give him $9M in arbitration. he wasn't going to take less with the twins (who almost certainly would have chosen to keep him over Cave, if he'd been willing to stay for $5-6M), so he took the money in Cleveland, and underwhelmed. In a short stint in Atlanta he's been revived, which is great for him and them. He'll play in the majors next year, but he's not going to get a 3 year deal and he's not going to get an AAV of $8M+, because teams are going to look at his whole year and not just 100 ABs with Atlanta.
  22. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from MN_ExPat in Analyzing Outcomes for Recent Free Agent Relievers   
    Excellent reminder on the fungibility of relievers. I'm not interested in giving relievers in their mid-to-late 30's long term deals (3+ years), and I'm really not interested in giving them those deals while paying a premium for a "proven closer".
    Would I like the Twins to sign a good RHP for the bullpen for next season? yes indeed. But I'd rather get 2 years of a guy like Trevor May for $6-8M per than fling $12-15M at a Kenley Jackson or Craig Kimbrel for 2-3 years and pray they don't collapse.
  23. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from Brock Beauchamp in Eddie Rosario   
    If you only look at what he's done in Atlanta, sure. but he wasn't anywhere near Polanco based on his Cleveland stats. Alex Kirilloff accumulated as much bWAR as Eddie Rosario did while battling a debilitating wrist injury that eventually ended his season.
    Do you think Cleveland is happy with the signing? They traded him to dump salary.
    I wish Rosario nothing but success, but the Twins made the correct decision when they declined to give him $9M in arbitration. he wasn't going to take less with the twins (who almost certainly would have chosen to keep him over Cave, if he'd been willing to stay for $5-6M), so he took the money in Cleveland, and underwhelmed. In a short stint in Atlanta he's been revived, which is great for him and them. He'll play in the majors next year, but he's not going to get a 3 year deal and he's not going to get an AAV of $8M+, because teams are going to look at his whole year and not just 100 ABs with Atlanta.
  24. Like
    jmlease1 reacted to cHawk in Eddie Rosario   
    This.
  25. Like
    jmlease1 reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Eddie Rosario   
    Oh, that's not what I meant at all. I'm happy Rosario is doing well with another team. I have nothing against the guy at all, I enjoyed his time with the Twins, it simply didn't make sense to keep him for $9m.
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