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jmlease1

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  1. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from Dman in Batting Average is the worst offensive statistic in baseball   
    That's fine if they're guys like Arraez at the plate (and can stay healthy, and play decent defense, etc); that's not fine when they're more like Astudillo.
    Willans Astudillo had a career Batting Average of .267. That's higher than 9 guys currently on the 16 man roster, and 14 of the 18 hitters that have taken ABs for the Twins this season, for this season. You will lose a LOT more games with a lineup of Astudillos over the current group.
    But the ball will be in play!
  2. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from Dman in Batting Average is the worst offensive statistic in baseball   
    They would not be talking about him like he was a Hall of Famer today. Kingman wasn't that good of an offensive player. He hit HRs, but that was it; Kingman only hit 20+ doubles 3 times in 16 seasons. He didn't walk much; only cleared 50 BBs 3 times as well. He's a more neutral version of Adam Dunn (Dunn was significantly better on offense and one of the worst defensive players in MLB, impressively worse than Kingman) and no one is considering Dunn for the Hall. Kingman wasn't exactly a great teammate either, but that's less relevant. Dunn was a 2 time all-star, Kingman got 3...both of them probably deserved maybe ONE.
    Joey Gallo is closing in on Kingman in terms of bWAR already and he hasn't even finished his 9th season yet. No one is talking about Gallo has a Hall of Fame-type player either, although Gallo was more deserving in both of his all-star campaigns than Dunn or Kingman in any of theirs.
    Carew absolutely would not have been in the Hall if he hit .209. I I guess I don't understand the point? It's like saying Wade Boggs wouldn't have been in the Hall if he hit .209. Or Reggie Jackson wouldn't be in the hall if he'd only hit 400 HRs. Getting a lot of hits was key to Carew's success, but he's not in the hall just because he got a ton of singles: Carew drew 50+ BBs 10 times. 20+ 2Bs 13 times. 10+ 3Bs 5 times. OBP over .400 8 times. SLG% over .425 9 times. (for comparison, Arraez hasn't finished with an OBP over .400 yet in his career, though he's on track right now. SLG of .425 once, but again on track this year.)
    Bating average isn't meaningless, but it is limited. It describes only a small portion of a player's offensive contributions. It still seems to be focused on by a lot of people because does illustrate players that play an aesthetically pleasing style of baseball, even if it's not necessarily always a winning one. 
  3. Like
    jmlease1 reacted to jkcarew in Batting Average is the worst offensive statistic in baseball   
    Kingman’s best 3 years we’re in Wrigley…he barely had anything close to a good year outside of wrigley…maybe one.
    He wouldn’t be in the hall of fame in ANY era.
  4. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from wabene in Batting Average is the worst offensive statistic in baseball   
    That's fine if they're guys like Arraez at the plate (and can stay healthy, and play decent defense, etc); that's not fine when they're more like Astudillo.
    Willans Astudillo had a career Batting Average of .267. That's higher than 9 guys currently on the 16 man roster, and 14 of the 18 hitters that have taken ABs for the Twins this season, for this season. You will lose a LOT more games with a lineup of Astudillos over the current group.
    But the ball will be in play!
  5. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from chpettit19 in Batting Average is the worst offensive statistic in baseball   
    That's fine if they're guys like Arraez at the plate (and can stay healthy, and play decent defense, etc); that's not fine when they're more like Astudillo.
    Willans Astudillo had a career Batting Average of .267. That's higher than 9 guys currently on the 16 man roster, and 14 of the 18 hitters that have taken ABs for the Twins this season, for this season. You will lose a LOT more games with a lineup of Astudillos over the current group.
    But the ball will be in play!
  6. Like
    jmlease1 reacted to chpettit19 in Batting Average is the worst offensive statistic in baseball   
    The problem for baseball is that the high average guys are more entertaining, but they don't score as many runs. Power is the best way to score, and win games. There are 9 teams with 200+ runs scored so far this season. Including the top 8 teams in slugging. "Only" 6 of them are in the top 10 in BA. 80% vs 60% is rather significant.
    The Dodgers are 25th in BA, 2nd in HR, 3rd in slug, and 3rd in runs. The Twins are 26th in BA, 6th in HR, 15th in slug, and 10th in runs. The Nationals are 9th in BA, 29th in HR, 28th in slug, and 25th in runs. Philly is 8th in BA, 20th in HR, 11th in slug, 20th in runs. Hitting homeruns and slugging make up for a significant amount of batting average when it comes to scoring runs, because it's really hard to string multiple singles together to score chunks of runs.
    Last year there were 14 teams to score 700+ runs. 7 of them were in the top 10 in BA. 9 in the top 10 of HR. 10 in the top 10 in slug. The title is a little aggressive calling BA the worst offensive stat, but it's correct in that BA is a severely lacking stat, and power is how teams win. Luis Arraez is far more entertaining to watch than a low BA power bat, but his lack of power makes him need to be all-time great to be an impact back. He's got 101 more points of BA than Taylor Walls, but his being 112 points worse in slugging means he's 15 points of wRC+ worse. He's a 15% worse hitter despite being 100 points better with BA because singles simply aren't as valuable as extra base hits.
  7. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from chpettit19 in Batting Average is the worst offensive statistic in baseball   
    They would not be talking about him like he was a Hall of Famer today. Kingman wasn't that good of an offensive player. He hit HRs, but that was it; Kingman only hit 20+ doubles 3 times in 16 seasons. He didn't walk much; only cleared 50 BBs 3 times as well. He's a more neutral version of Adam Dunn (Dunn was significantly better on offense and one of the worst defensive players in MLB, impressively worse than Kingman) and no one is considering Dunn for the Hall. Kingman wasn't exactly a great teammate either, but that's less relevant. Dunn was a 2 time all-star, Kingman got 3...both of them probably deserved maybe ONE.
    Joey Gallo is closing in on Kingman in terms of bWAR already and he hasn't even finished his 9th season yet. No one is talking about Gallo has a Hall of Fame-type player either, although Gallo was more deserving in both of his all-star campaigns than Dunn or Kingman in any of theirs.
    Carew absolutely would not have been in the Hall if he hit .209. I I guess I don't understand the point? It's like saying Wade Boggs wouldn't have been in the Hall if he hit .209. Or Reggie Jackson wouldn't be in the hall if he'd only hit 400 HRs. Getting a lot of hits was key to Carew's success, but he's not in the hall just because he got a ton of singles: Carew drew 50+ BBs 10 times. 20+ 2Bs 13 times. 10+ 3Bs 5 times. OBP over .400 8 times. SLG% over .425 9 times. (for comparison, Arraez hasn't finished with an OBP over .400 yet in his career, though he's on track right now. SLG of .425 once, but again on track this year.)
    Bating average isn't meaningless, but it is limited. It describes only a small portion of a player's offensive contributions. It still seems to be focused on by a lot of people because does illustrate players that play an aesthetically pleasing style of baseball, even if it's not necessarily always a winning one. 
  8. Like
    jmlease1 reacted to Major League Ready in Batting Average is the worst offensive statistic in baseball   
    Wouldn't the best example be Judge vs Arraez last year.  They had nearly identical BAs.  However, Judge had a wRC+ that was 76 points higher.  Would anyone argue Arraez had anywhere near the impact of Judge?
  9. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from wabene in Batting Average is the worst offensive statistic in baseball   
    Rod Carew was a hall of famer, so...no. Carew was substantially better on offense for his career, in part because he also walked more than Kingman. Carew also didn't just slap a bunch of singles; he had 45% more doubles and 4 1/2 times as many triples than Kingman, which makes up to a degree for the many more HRs that Kingman hit. Kingman was also a rotten defender, and Carew was a decent one. The Twins were better off with Carew not because of just his batting average, but because he also had a better on-base %, a better OPS, a better OPS+, and was a much better defensive player.
    I mean, you're comparing an 18-time all-star vs a 3 time all-star (who played on teams that didn't have a lot of other options and was a marginal to poor choice all three years), a no-doubt Hall of Famer, MVP, and RoY against a guy who was...just a guy.
    Arraez is a very good player and currently having a Carew-like year. but it's been less than 1/4 of the season for a player that struggled down the stretch last year because of chronic leg problems. He's healthy now and playing great (good for him! I love Luis Arraez) but he did similar things for the Twins last season before falling off significantly. he's struggled against lefties his whole career and has a pretty significant split again this season. So far, Gallo and Arraez have been pretty similar in terms of their overall offensive contributions, albeit in very different ways. Arraez could end up providing more total value over the course of the season (and has so far) if he's able to stay healthy and at 2B...but that's a pretty huge if. Too early to really compare him to Rod Carew.
  10. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from SF Twins Fan in Batting Average is the worst offensive statistic in baseball   
    Batting average is still a bit overrated, but it's still more useful than RBIs in telling you things about who the player is and how much they contribute to the offense.
  11. Haha
    jmlease1 got a reaction from LiamC in What are the 6 biggest HRs in Twins history?   
    I think this is a fine list. The Hrbek & Puckett HRs are deeply ingrained in my Twins memory. I'll admit, I'd sorta forgotten about the Baylor one because the Hrbek blast was just so awesome.
    As an honorable mention I want to name the Cuddyer/Morneau back-to-back jacks in the playoffs from the aughts (definitely not "important" enough to make the list, since we lost that game) because that was a) as loud as I'd ever gotten to experience the Metrodome, and b) it's the only time I've made a called shot. Turned to my pal after the first one and screamed, "He's going to hit one out, we're going back-to-back" (had to scream, because it was ear-bleeding loud in there) and then we all went mad as another one sailed into the seat. 
    I'm still kinda mad at Torii for diving after that stupid single.
  12. Haha
    jmlease1 got a reaction from Devlin Clark in What are the 6 biggest HRs in Twins history?   
    I think this is a fine list. The Hrbek & Puckett HRs are deeply ingrained in my Twins memory. I'll admit, I'd sorta forgotten about the Baylor one because the Hrbek blast was just so awesome.
    As an honorable mention I want to name the Cuddyer/Morneau back-to-back jacks in the playoffs from the aughts (definitely not "important" enough to make the list, since we lost that game) because that was a) as loud as I'd ever gotten to experience the Metrodome, and b) it's the only time I've made a called shot. Turned to my pal after the first one and screamed, "He's going to hit one out, we're going back-to-back" (had to scream, because it was ear-bleeding loud in there) and then we all went mad as another one sailed into the seat. 
    I'm still kinda mad at Torii for diving after that stupid single.
  13. Like
    jmlease1 reacted to Richie the Rally Goat in The Downfall of Byung-Ho Park   
    In retrospect, a 28 or 29 year old obliterating baseballs in the equivalent of AA with a very high K rate probably doesn’t translate to obliterating baseballs in MLB. If he was 22 or 23, I can’t imagine the posting fee and salary… Park was fairly cheap at 24 million total.
  14. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from Richie the Rally Goat in The Downfall of Byung-Ho Park   
    I think the biggest factor that brought down Park as a major league player was age. he was 29 when he first came to MLB, not 24. he'd been a star in his home country, but the pitching in the Korean league isn't up to MLB standard and he struggled with the sharper and faster breaking stuff. I think it's a lot harder to adjust when you're older, and when you're also trying to adjust to a foreign country in a place where there's not a huge Korean immigrant population, it's probably even harder.
    It's also important to remember that Park struck out a lot in Korea as well, it's not just that his K rate in MLB was was high: he rang up a lot of them in Korea against worse pitching. Throw in some injuries and just ok performance in AAA and he didn't make it back.
    i thought it was a good move at the time and I was excited to see the Twins taking some risks in the international market, but it didn't work out. I'm guessing the Twins have a lot better feel for evaluating Korean baseball now?
  15. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from LiamC in The Downfall of Byung-Ho Park   
    I think the biggest factor that brought down Park as a major league player was age. he was 29 when he first came to MLB, not 24. he'd been a star in his home country, but the pitching in the Korean league isn't up to MLB standard and he struggled with the sharper and faster breaking stuff. I think it's a lot harder to adjust when you're older, and when you're also trying to adjust to a foreign country in a place where there's not a huge Korean immigrant population, it's probably even harder.
    It's also important to remember that Park struck out a lot in Korea as well, it's not just that his K rate in MLB was was high: he rang up a lot of them in Korea against worse pitching. Throw in some injuries and just ok performance in AAA and he didn't make it back.
    i thought it was a good move at the time and I was excited to see the Twins taking some risks in the international market, but it didn't work out. I'm guessing the Twins have a lot better feel for evaluating Korean baseball now?
  16. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from Bodie in The Downfall of Byung-Ho Park   
    I think the biggest factor that brought down Park as a major league player was age. he was 29 when he first came to MLB, not 24. he'd been a star in his home country, but the pitching in the Korean league isn't up to MLB standard and he struggled with the sharper and faster breaking stuff. I think it's a lot harder to adjust when you're older, and when you're also trying to adjust to a foreign country in a place where there's not a huge Korean immigrant population, it's probably even harder.
    It's also important to remember that Park struck out a lot in Korea as well, it's not just that his K rate in MLB was was high: he rang up a lot of them in Korea against worse pitching. Throw in some injuries and just ok performance in AAA and he didn't make it back.
    i thought it was a good move at the time and I was excited to see the Twins taking some risks in the international market, but it didn't work out. I'm guessing the Twins have a lot better feel for evaluating Korean baseball now?
  17. Love
    jmlease1 got a reaction from LiamC in Minnesota Twins Mount Rushmore   
    A fine list, and probably mine as well. Tony O was great, but I'd rate Mauer a little higher if forced, because of the defense. Mauer was more consistently good on D at a tougher position, and even after moving off catcher developed into a Gold Glove caliber defender at a new position, which is pretty unusual. Harmon, Rodney, and Kirby are easy picks unless you fold in the Senators years.
    Johan is an interesting case; the peak was insanely great. I think I want my Team Mt. Rushmore guys to play at least 10 years for the club. It's a little arbitrary I admit, but you have to find criteria somewhere. Bert has enough seasons in MN...barely. The last years weren't as great, though, even if they did include a title.
    Buxton could get there, depending on how the next 5-6 years go. He's got the talent, no question, just needs the health. Can Correa contend? He could make me reconsider my "10 years" rule if he dominates the next 5-6 years, even if he doesn't get through all years of the deal.
  18. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from IndyTwinsFan in Realistic Goals for Twins Hitters in 2023   
    as goals these are all reasonable. remember, he's not saying "this is what these guys will do" or even "this is was I expect from each player".
    This is "what's an attainable goal for each player" and none of them are outrageous. Some do require seeing things we haven't gotten recently (if ever), But if Buxton plays 120 games, there's little reason to think he can't have an OPS of .800 and hit 30 dingers. Miranda showed he could hit at that level; throw out that horrific start in May and he's right there last season. That's a good goal to aim for. I think it's important to look at each of these individually, not as a set, because each player's goal is independent of each other. Alex Kirilloff being healthy and hitting without pain has nothing to do with Byron Buxton's knee not barking at him.
  19. Love
    jmlease1 got a reaction from Harrison Smith in Realistic Goals for Twins Hitters in 2023   
    as goals these are all reasonable. remember, he's not saying "this is what these guys will do" or even "this is was I expect from each player".
    This is "what's an attainable goal for each player" and none of them are outrageous. Some do require seeing things we haven't gotten recently (if ever), But if Buxton plays 120 games, there's little reason to think he can't have an OPS of .800 and hit 30 dingers. Miranda showed he could hit at that level; throw out that horrific start in May and he's right there last season. That's a good goal to aim for. I think it's important to look at each of these individually, not as a set, because each player's goal is independent of each other. Alex Kirilloff being healthy and hitting without pain has nothing to do with Byron Buxton's knee not barking at him.
  20. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from Melissa in Realistic Goals for Twins Hitters in 2023   
    as goals these are all reasonable. remember, he's not saying "this is what these guys will do" or even "this is was I expect from each player".
    This is "what's an attainable goal for each player" and none of them are outrageous. Some do require seeing things we haven't gotten recently (if ever), But if Buxton plays 120 games, there's little reason to think he can't have an OPS of .800 and hit 30 dingers. Miranda showed he could hit at that level; throw out that horrific start in May and he's right there last season. That's a good goal to aim for. I think it's important to look at each of these individually, not as a set, because each player's goal is independent of each other. Alex Kirilloff being healthy and hitting without pain has nothing to do with Byron Buxton's knee not barking at him.
  21. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from wabene in Realistic Goals for Twins Hitters in 2023   
    as goals these are all reasonable. remember, he's not saying "this is what these guys will do" or even "this is was I expect from each player".
    This is "what's an attainable goal for each player" and none of them are outrageous. Some do require seeing things we haven't gotten recently (if ever), But if Buxton plays 120 games, there's little reason to think he can't have an OPS of .800 and hit 30 dingers. Miranda showed he could hit at that level; throw out that horrific start in May and he's right there last season. That's a good goal to aim for. I think it's important to look at each of these individually, not as a set, because each player's goal is independent of each other. Alex Kirilloff being healthy and hitting without pain has nothing to do with Byron Buxton's knee not barking at him.
  22. Like
    jmlease1 reacted to DocBauer in Does Alex Reyes Make Sense for the Twins?   
    Interesting idea.
    What SHOULD happen is a signing by a team not expected to contend and then use him for a trade to someone needing pen help, IF he's healthy and productive again.
    The 40 man is really crowded for the Twins right now. Other than maybe Pagan, I can't think of any obvious drop candidate to take a ML flier on Reyes. I'd much rather sign a more known arm such as Fulmer and offer Reyes a invite on a milb if nobody steps up.
    However, I do want to remind that once things get rolling, the Twins have 3 probably 60 day IL candidates. So if a reliever like Reyes was still sitting there late, that changes the entire thought process about taking that flier.
  23. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from wabene in Rocco Baldelli; The Perfect Modern Manager   
    I think people tend to be full of crap on this one. I see this kind of statement all the time from the "Fire Rocco" crowd about how they want the starter to try and work out of a jam, but they'll bury the manager just as fast when the starter gives up the back-breaking hit that busts the game wide open too. Then it'll be all about how "the manager should have seen that he was gassed" or "anyone with a brain should have known that the starter just didn't have it".
    Look, I'd rather have pretty much any pitcher work out of a jam than Pagan right now, but that's because I don't think Pagan is a very good pitcher.
    I think the article is a bit mean-spirited in how it treats Rocco, with the suggestion that he's literally just a puppet and Falvey/Levine are really making all the tactical decisions in advance for Rocco to select one off the iPad or something. And I pretty much discount any opinion that starts snottily bringing up Rocco & spreadsheets and treating the man like he's some kind of numbers obsessive who spends all his time pouring over numbers to the exclusion of everything else (the dude was basically the ultimate jock until becoming a manager apparently turned him into a geek to some people). But it's not wrong in that Rocco's overall strategic decision-making patterns are in line with what the front office wants. This is also how pretty much every front office operates now, where the front office hires managers that are in basic agreement with how the front office wants things to go.
    This has ebbed and flowed over the years in baseball. There have been teams and even eras where the manager set the tone and has the most influence on the baseball side of the house and the front office was responsible for getting players that did what the manager wanted, etc. this is also not the first era where the front office called the shots and the manager was responsible for executing the plan the front office set. 
    It's pretty unusual for the manager and front office to be out of synch and the team to have any success, I'd say.
  24. Haha
    jmlease1 got a reaction from bap3141 in Rocco Baldelli; The Perfect Modern Manager   
    I think people tend to be full of crap on this one. I see this kind of statement all the time from the "Fire Rocco" crowd about how they want the starter to try and work out of a jam, but they'll bury the manager just as fast when the starter gives up the back-breaking hit that busts the game wide open too. Then it'll be all about how "the manager should have seen that he was gassed" or "anyone with a brain should have known that the starter just didn't have it".
    Look, I'd rather have pretty much any pitcher work out of a jam than Pagan right now, but that's because I don't think Pagan is a very good pitcher.
    I think the article is a bit mean-spirited in how it treats Rocco, with the suggestion that he's literally just a puppet and Falvey/Levine are really making all the tactical decisions in advance for Rocco to select one off the iPad or something. And I pretty much discount any opinion that starts snottily bringing up Rocco & spreadsheets and treating the man like he's some kind of numbers obsessive who spends all his time pouring over numbers to the exclusion of everything else (the dude was basically the ultimate jock until becoming a manager apparently turned him into a geek to some people). But it's not wrong in that Rocco's overall strategic decision-making patterns are in line with what the front office wants. This is also how pretty much every front office operates now, where the front office hires managers that are in basic agreement with how the front office wants things to go.
    This has ebbed and flowed over the years in baseball. There have been teams and even eras where the manager set the tone and has the most influence on the baseball side of the house and the front office was responsible for getting players that did what the manager wanted, etc. this is also not the first era where the front office called the shots and the manager was responsible for executing the plan the front office set. 
    It's pretty unusual for the manager and front office to be out of synch and the team to have any success, I'd say.
  25. Like
    jmlease1 got a reaction from Nick Hanzlik in Rocco Baldelli; The Perfect Modern Manager   
    I think people tend to be full of crap on this one. I see this kind of statement all the time from the "Fire Rocco" crowd about how they want the starter to try and work out of a jam, but they'll bury the manager just as fast when the starter gives up the back-breaking hit that busts the game wide open too. Then it'll be all about how "the manager should have seen that he was gassed" or "anyone with a brain should have known that the starter just didn't have it".
    Look, I'd rather have pretty much any pitcher work out of a jam than Pagan right now, but that's because I don't think Pagan is a very good pitcher.
    I think the article is a bit mean-spirited in how it treats Rocco, with the suggestion that he's literally just a puppet and Falvey/Levine are really making all the tactical decisions in advance for Rocco to select one off the iPad or something. And I pretty much discount any opinion that starts snottily bringing up Rocco & spreadsheets and treating the man like he's some kind of numbers obsessive who spends all his time pouring over numbers to the exclusion of everything else (the dude was basically the ultimate jock until becoming a manager apparently turned him into a geek to some people). But it's not wrong in that Rocco's overall strategic decision-making patterns are in line with what the front office wants. This is also how pretty much every front office operates now, where the front office hires managers that are in basic agreement with how the front office wants things to go.
    This has ebbed and flowed over the years in baseball. There have been teams and even eras where the manager set the tone and has the most influence on the baseball side of the house and the front office was responsible for getting players that did what the manager wanted, etc. this is also not the first era where the front office called the shots and the manager was responsible for executing the plan the front office set. 
    It's pretty unusual for the manager and front office to be out of synch and the team to have any success, I'd say.
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