Jump to content
  • Create Account

TheLeviathan

Old-Timey Member
  • Posts

    17,425
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    41

Reputation Activity

  1. Like
    TheLeviathan got a reaction from Mike Sixel in José Berríos Traded to Blue Jays   
    I don't think it's fair to say the Twins can win bidding wars in FA with the heavy spending organizations.  Baseball has a serious problem on this front, I'm not sure why we're approaching the system in denial of that.  We don't have to like it.  We can find it morally wrong.  Yet, nevertheless, this is our situation: we won't be outbidding the big dogs and Berrios wants to let the big dogs fight over him.
    We'd all love to be in a situation where keeping Jose Berrios made sense.  All of us.  We all wish the organization's status with MLB-ready pitching was better.  But it's the reality of both of those things that make the analysis of this rather simple, if depressing.  He isn't staying.  The Twins aren't going to spend 30M on a pitcher because that's not the way they operate.  They don't have anyone ready now or for next year that can step in and make this team a contender.  We look like a retool for 2023 by all probabilities.  Given that, it makes more sense to have two well regarded guys that could be here in 2023 over a guy with 0% chance.  
    The sober part is about not letting the emotional arguments you keep make rule over the cold analytical ones.  Hard as that might be.
  2. Like
    TheLeviathan got a reaction from nicksaviking in 2021 Off-Season Thread   
    Vikings cut Gladney.  What a colossal misfire that pick was.
    And for what he did I hope he gets every ounce of that ten year maximum.
  3. Like
    TheLeviathan got a reaction from Mike Sixel in 2021 Off-Season Thread   
    Vikings cut Gladney.  What a colossal misfire that pick was.
    And for what he did I hope he gets every ounce of that ten year maximum.
  4. Like
    TheLeviathan reacted to Tim in The Twins Bought Low on Austin Martin   
    You are aware that every single player, prior to playing a major league game, is considered a prospect, right? These are 2 very good, young players. Believe it or not, Berrios was once a prospect!
  5. Like
    TheLeviathan reacted to gunnarthor in The Twins Bought Low on Austin Martin   
    I like the Arraez comparison and I think it's a good one, although Martin's bat will be a lot better in the long run. I'm not really worried about him, Toronto is pretty aggressive with their prospects. Most teams probably wouldn't have dropped him in AA to start his career so it made sense that he struggled a bit. He's going to be really good.
  6. Like
    TheLeviathan got a reaction from Major League Ready in José Berríos Traded to Blue Jays   
    It's a W in the sense that they got much more value than was expected.  And it was a W relative to other deals for other similar players who moved at the deadline.  It isn't mutually exclusive that the team also will suffer immediately from losing Berrios and that the Twins did very well given the circumstances.
    0% chance is not entirely on the Twins either.  That's the marching orders Barreiro is preaching in the media market and he's mostly grasping for straws.  (Reusse too.  On the basis of haggling in arbitration....which happens ALL THE TIME.  It's literally what the process is: quibbling over thousands) Jose Berrios wants to experience FA.  He can't do that by signing an extension.  I'm sure if the Twins threw some absurd amount of money at him he might change his mind, but the money it'd take to do that is not what I think any Twins fan would agree to pay.  (Say....5 years, 150M) So, no, that's not on them.  That's how the system is built.  Good for Jose that he gets to set his terms and his valuation and let suitors come to him.  He has earned that privilege and there is nothing the Twins can do about that if he has his mind set to do so.
    Given that's the case, you have to weigh the prospects of what 2022 looks like because keeping him guarantees you a vastly diminished return in a trade.  The 2022 staff is still a bad pitching staff with him and there are less tradeable assets and less money to improve.  Now they have more options because they chose to maximize his trade value.  
    I don't think 2022 is a contention year, I think 2023 is more likely because of the state of their young talent and what 2020 did to delay that pipeline.  Is that a certainty?  No.  But no one gets to deal in certainties, only probabilities.  All the probabilities point to this series of decisions being the right ones. We seem to be trying to paint people as "lusting for prospects" when all that's really happening is a sober take on where we're at.  No one wants to be at this point, especially not with the expectations we set out with.  But this isn't a fantasy land where you can just will the team to success on the basis of your undying love of seeing them play right now.  Good teams, that retool quickly, don't double down on mistakes and hang on too long out of denial.
  7. Like
    TheLeviathan reacted to Brock Beauchamp in POLL: Grade the Deadline   
    A bit of an aside but the analysis on Berríos is pretty terrible there:
    1. Target Field has been roughly neutral for years, as far as I'm aware.
    2. Using Berríos' career ERA is just lazy. 4.08 career ERA. If you remove that atrocious rookie campaign, it drops to 3.82. If you look at only the last three seasons, it's 3.61 (which is a 120 ERA+).
  8. Like
    TheLeviathan got a reaction from Major League Ready in POLL: Grade the Deadline   
    Me either, I just don't like what I read here.  @Major League Ready Now, if the return stunk even with money, fine, but if they turned down a good move over a few million bucks I'd be a little irritated.  
  9. Like
    TheLeviathan got a reaction from Melissa in 5 Things To Know About New Twins Pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson   
    20 and at AA....that part can't be said enough.
  10. Like
    TheLeviathan reacted to ashbury in POLL: Grade the Deadline   
    That's a truism, but the FO doesn't have the luxury of that kind of perspective, and we're invited to play along from our armchairs. Go ahead, give it a whirl.
  11. Like
    TheLeviathan reacted to wsnydes in POLL: Grade the Deadline   
    I gave them a B+.  They hit on the two big trades, but failed to deal Pineda.  They somehow managed to deal Happ though.
    That said, I think they did really well on the two important trades.  That's a much bigger deal for the franchise.
    It would be nice to see them pivot and extend Pineda now.
  12. Like
    TheLeviathan reacted to SanoMustGo in POLL: Grade the Deadline   
    B+  I think they traded away the guy the knew they couldn't sign.  They also got return for two of the horrible free agent signings.  And, two good prospect arms for Cruz.  We also save money for free agency in 2022 since we don't have to go through arb with Berrios.  The pipeline is now full of good arms.  I am optimistic about the future, maybe even 2022 as long as the FO does a better job with free agents.  Still a decent remaining group of of vets, and a very good core of young position players.  Time will tell if the gaps can be filled properly.
  13. Like
    TheLeviathan got a reaction from Mike Frasier Law in 5 Things To Know About New Twins Pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson   
    20 and at AA....that part can't be said enough.
  14. Like
    TheLeviathan got a reaction from Major League Ready in José Berríos Traded to Blue Jays   
    I have heard multiple people lament hos loss.  I have done so no less than three times.  It has been acknowledged.
    We just added two top 100 prospects who immediately slid into the top 3 in our organization.  Top 100 prospects hold a crap ton of value in trades. I don't know what the future holds in terms of how they will help the club....but I also haven't declared the next year, or two years, or decade a waste because we traded one pitcher.  Yeah...maybe 2022 sucks.  But it looked like it was bound to be a longshot with or without Berrios.
    What I do know is waiting dramatically reduces his value in trade for a player we have zero chance to retain long term.  Deliberately tanking that value to buy in to 2022 seems like the kind idea you don't need hindsight to warn against.
  15. Like
    TheLeviathan got a reaction from Major League Ready in José Berríos Traded to Blue Jays   
    He has said everything but that.  He has made it crystal clear he simply isn't interested in an extension.  That is a factual, vital part of evaluating the situation.
    I love Jose.  I'm sad our situation forced these choices.  But I can't remove the context and then judge the move fairly.  Not once in this thread has it felt like you fairly weighed the context/realities of the situation.  It's ok to be pissed or worn down or sad....but it's leading to completely unfair arguments born of fantasy rather than reality.
  16. Like
    TheLeviathan got a reaction from Major League Ready in José Berríos Traded to Blue Jays   
    I'm not confident they can add much talent to the roster hanging on to a guy who has every intention of not being here in 2023.  They could take these two prospects and use them to add arms.  Martin and somebody for Zac Gallen.  Woods Richardson and another piece for John Means.
    Bam.  Better 2022 Rotation.  And 2023.  And 2024.  These are the kinds of things you can do when you have assets to move.
  17. Like
    TheLeviathan got a reaction from bighat in 5 Things To Know About New Twins Pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson   
    20 and at AA....that part can't be said enough.
  18. Like
    TheLeviathan got a reaction from ToddlerHarmon in 5 Things To Know About New Twins Pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson   
    20 and at AA....that part can't be said enough.
  19. Like
    TheLeviathan got a reaction from flpmagikat in José Berríos Traded to Blue Jays   
    I have heard multiple people lament hos loss.  I have done so no less than three times.  It has been acknowledged.
    We just added two top 100 prospects who immediately slid into the top 3 in our organization.  Top 100 prospects hold a crap ton of value in trades. I don't know what the future holds in terms of how they will help the club....but I also haven't declared the next year, or two years, or decade a waste because we traded one pitcher.  Yeah...maybe 2022 sucks.  But it looked like it was bound to be a longshot with or without Berrios.
    What I do know is waiting dramatically reduces his value in trade for a player we have zero chance to retain long term.  Deliberately tanking that value to buy in to 2022 seems like the kind idea you don't need hindsight to warn against.
  20. Like
    TheLeviathan got a reaction from nicksaviking in 5 Things To Know About New Twins Pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson   
    20 and at AA....that part can't be said enough.
  21. Like
    TheLeviathan got a reaction from Danchat in 5 Things To Know About New Twins Pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson   
    20 and at AA....that part can't be said enough.
  22. Like
    TheLeviathan got a reaction from twinssporto in 5 Things To Know About New Twins Pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson   
    20 and at AA....that part can't be said enough.
  23. Like
    TheLeviathan got a reaction from Twins33 in José Berríos Traded to Blue Jays   
    I have heard multiple people lament hos loss.  I have done so no less than three times.  It has been acknowledged.
    We just added two top 100 prospects who immediately slid into the top 3 in our organization.  Top 100 prospects hold a crap ton of value in trades. I don't know what the future holds in terms of how they will help the club....but I also haven't declared the next year, or two years, or decade a waste because we traded one pitcher.  Yeah...maybe 2022 sucks.  But it looked like it was bound to be a longshot with or without Berrios.
    What I do know is waiting dramatically reduces his value in trade for a player we have zero chance to retain long term.  Deliberately tanking that value to buy in to 2022 seems like the kind idea you don't need hindsight to warn against.
  24. Like
    TheLeviathan got a reaction from Twins33 in José Berríos Traded to Blue Jays   
    He has said everything but that.  He has made it crystal clear he simply isn't interested in an extension.  That is a factual, vital part of evaluating the situation.
    I love Jose.  I'm sad our situation forced these choices.  But I can't remove the context and then judge the move fairly.  Not once in this thread has it felt like you fairly weighed the context/realities of the situation.  It's ok to be pissed or worn down or sad....but it's leading to completely unfair arguments born of fantasy rather than reality.
  25. Like
    TheLeviathan got a reaction from gbg in José Berríos Traded to Blue Jays   
    I think ashbury and mike answered this well, but I don't understand why it was a question at all.  So much of the discord in here feels like people are tailoring the context of this trade in strange ways that omit key reasons why it makes so much sense to pull this trigger.  Take just a few:
    1. Berrios has made it abundantly clear he isn't interested in an extension.  Short of "Pay me 5 years and 200M or I'm going to let the Yanks wine and dine me"....there isn't much mystery about his intentions.  That means in one season and two months you have as much control over who he pitches for as every other MLB team.
    2. Trading him at the next deadline will dramatically reduce the return.  I can't emphasize dramatically hard enough.  
    3. If your plan is to outbid the Yankees....you get your shot in 2022 I guess.  Plus the guys we just got!
    4. Jose Berrios and a bunch of question marks is not a contending caliber staff.  2022 doesn't have enough ready starting pitchers to supplement Jose.
    Now, let me add a few personal contextual bits I think are worth noting:
    1. The Twins just got more for Jose Berrios than the Nats got for Scherzer AND Trae Turner with a similar level of control.
    2 I'd trade Berrios for Turner 102 times out of 100 straight up.  
    3.  The Twins could, conceivably, turn around this offseason and make two separate deals with these guys as lead parts of the package and come back with two arms as good (or nearly as good) as Jose.  This is what could happen because now the Twins have more assets to make the 2022 team better than one guy who has made it his outward goal to bet on himself.
×
×
  • Create New...