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Tim

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  1. Like
    Tim got a reaction from RpR in A 21-22 Offseason Idea   
    5/135 for Seager, might need to add 3 years and 100 million to that
  2. Like
    Tim reacted to bean5302 in A 21-22 Offseason Idea   
    Definitely a lot of work put into stuff like this and I can appreciate it, I just don't think it's realistic for the Twins to spend $140MM in a season they don't expect to compete (by your words).
  3. Like
    Tim reacted to bean5302 in A 21-22 Offseason Idea   
    Sixto Sanchez underwent capsule repair shoulder surgery with additional cleanup. There is no timetable on him and the chances he returns at his pre-surgery performance levels are poor if he ever returns to MLB caliber at all. This isn't UCL surgery, this is shoulder surgery which often ruins pitching careers.
  4. Like
    Tim reacted to TopGunn#22 in Let Me Talk About Catchers   
    I've commented on this several times as well.  With the Marlins as a trade target, the Twins have both Garver and Jeffers who should be VERY interesting to Miami.  MLB Trade values currently has Garver at 18.1 and Jeffers at 27.9.  If the Twins are looking for someone like Sandy Alcantara it would take Jeffers and Larnach.  I'd do that.  If the Twins are willing to go for someone like former Golden Gopher Max Meyer (28.1) Jeffers in a one-for-one swap pretty much does it.  If the Twins want to go BIG and ask for Meyer AND Sixto Sanchez (9.5) then a little something extra would need to be added with Jeffers.  The thing is, Jeffers is a solid defensive catcher with power (14 HR's in under 300 PA's) whose younger with more years of team control.  The Marlins catching situation is a disaster and one they will need to address this off season.  Is Jeffers really worth more than Garver ?  I don't think so either, but it depends what the Marlins think.  With Rortvedt about a year away, I see the Twins dealing Jeffers and picking up a Jason Castro type for a backup.  The Marlins have an embarrassment of riches with young pitching and a black hole at catcher.  Larnach is just the type of young hitter a team desperate for offense should take a chance on.  I'd hate to part with Larnach, been a fan ever since I saw him get clutch hit after clutch hit in leading Oregon state to an NCAA baseball title.  But his value is much higher than Kepler's, so Kepler is worth more to the Twins at his currently depressed value, making Larnach available.  Maybe Max figures out what he needs to do to hit better, maybe not, but the Twins can't trade guys like Kepler or Buxton when their current value is so low.
    I trade Jeffers to the Marlins in a package for young SP.
  5. Like
    Tim got a reaction from glunn in Jorge Polanco and The Twins   
    Well actually in terms of WAR, the gap between Arraez and Polanco is only 1.4 .. Yes, you lose power, power at 2nd is a luxury.... But to say we don't have anyone close to replace him at 2nd is just inaccurate. They also just traded their "ace" for a top 30 prospect who's pretty much major league ready and will most likely end up at 2nd.
    There is no such thing as an underrated player to major league front offices. The statistics I listed above justify that over a 3 year sample size, all public information.. Underrated in terms of popularity amongst fans? maybe I guess.
    This is a big picture trade to benefit the growth of the organization in the long run. Having a power hitting 2nd basemen is a luxury for a playoff contender, not a rebuilding club.
  6. Like
    Tim reacted to In My La Z boy in Jorge Polanco and The Twins   
    This is the question. Does Falvey think we are a playoff contender next year, or does he think we are rebuilding? We certainly should consider trading him if we aren't thinking playoffs for 2-4 years. Given the contract, and his numbers, Polanco is by far our most valuable trade piece. I'll give the chances of this happening at 10% max. Zero percent if we cannot sign Buxton.
  7. Like
    Tim got a reaction from In My La Z boy in Jorge Polanco and The Twins   
    Well actually in terms of WAR, the gap between Arraez and Polanco is only 1.4 .. Yes, you lose power, power at 2nd is a luxury.... But to say we don't have anyone close to replace him at 2nd is just inaccurate. They also just traded their "ace" for a top 30 prospect who's pretty much major league ready and will most likely end up at 2nd.
    There is no such thing as an underrated player to major league front offices. The statistics I listed above justify that over a 3 year sample size, all public information.. Underrated in terms of popularity amongst fans? maybe I guess.
    This is a big picture trade to benefit the growth of the organization in the long run. Having a power hitting 2nd basemen is a luxury for a playoff contender, not a rebuilding club.
  8. Like
    Tim got a reaction from wabene in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    Honestly at the time, Happ was a lot safer of a signing than taking a flier on Kluber. Happ had pitched to an ERA below 4, 5/6 previous years. No one expected him to be as bad as he was. Kluber was coming off surgery and hadn't pitched professionally in 2 years. Interesting thoughts on the Walker signing .. Maybe there is a conspiracy ..
    This comes back to depth. The front office knew that they couldn't get by with AAA guys making spot starts so went after quantity. I believe this is the case for the previous years as well. 
  9. Like
    Tim reacted to smartfred in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    The problem I have with your list list is that you're cherry picking players that are fitting your narrative.
    For example...
    2021 FA Class of High End Starters
    Trevor Bauer - WAR - 1.7 @ 3 years for $34 million = $20 million/WAR
    Charlie Morton - WAR - 3.6 @ 1 year for $15 million = $4.15 million/WAR
    Kevin Gausman - WAR - 4.2 @ 1 year for $18.9 million = $4.5 million/WAR
    Marcus Stroman - WAR - 3.1 @ 1 year for $18.9 million = $6.1 million/ WAR
    That's it for higher end SP's for 2021
    The middle guys
    Corey Kluber - WAR - 1 @ 1 year for $11 million = $11 million / WAR
    Mike Minor - WAR - 2 @ 2 years for $18 million = $2.25 million / WAR
    James Paxton - WAR - 0 @ 1 year for $8.5 million = INF / WAR
    Robbie Ray - WAR - 3.7 @ 1 year for $8 million = $2.16 million / WAR
    Drew Smyly - WAR - .2 @ 1 year for $11 million = $55 million / WAR
    The Twins Picks
    J.A. Happ - WAR 0 @ $8 million
    Matt Shoemaker - .7 WAR @ $2 million
    The Twins have had 15 different starting pitchers in 2021. Less than 60% of SP's in the rotation will end the year with 30 starts.
    This means the Twins need at least 10 - 15 starting pitcher.
    I don't see any logic why the Twins FO will sign a SP that will cost 15-25% of the payroll and only has a 50-60% chance to make it through the entire season.
    We could have signed 2 mid tier pitchers and gambled on their success, or do what the Twins did and signed 1 mid tier pitcher and 1 low end pitcher and roll the dice.
    Unfortunately the dice roll didn't end up.
    The Twins Plan That Didn't Work 
    Sign elite defenders so mediocre pitchers have a better chance to thrive at Target Field Josh Donaldson Andrelton Simmons Buxton in CF Polonco is a + defender at 2B Keplar is a + defender in the OF Realistically the Twins made some good decisions, they just lost the dice roll. 
    Sure beats being stuck with a lost season from;
    Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander, Chris Sale, Luis Severino and many others....
    25% of your payroll just thrown in the trash.... that would hurt... I like the Twins strategy better.
  10. Like
    Tim reacted to Dman in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    I like the analysis and it makes sense but not every team is going to be able to sign the three to four elite pitchers that come out every year so 27 teams are going to miss out that is the math of supply and demand.  If it is worth it for the Twins why wouldn't it be worth it for the Yankee's, Dodgers etc? Teams that can up the anti until they can't.
    Maybe it is the owner but Falvey came from Cleveland and they never bought an ace in fact they seem to get rid of their guys once they get too expensive.  I think it will be the same mentality for the Twins.  They are going to do it from within and hope those one year deals work out more often than not.  If they get to a Cleveland like pitching pipeline then they won't spend big on pitching at all.  It will all come from the farm.
    I'm not saying your analysis is wrong but it seems like most teams in the Twins payroll range don't buy into your premise.  They seem to feel or have analysis that arms are too volatile to bank on and that on average younger arms are better than older ones.  Thus the home grown and one year prove it deals for Oakland, Tampa, KC, Cleveland, Miami, Pittsburg, Milwaukee etc..  None of those teams do what you are suggesting in fact they all avoid it. Most all of those teams are banking on building a staff of young arms and supplementing with a reasonably priced veteran on a shorter term deal.
    I like the go big or go home approach but for small market it has to hurt and mean losing other valuable players at some point.  There is more to your analysis than meets the eye IMO.  Else everyone would\could do it.
     
  11. Like
    Tim got a reaction from smartfred in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    Honestly at the time, Happ was a lot safer of a signing than taking a flier on Kluber. Happ had pitched to an ERA below 4, 5/6 previous years. No one expected him to be as bad as he was. Kluber was coming off surgery and hadn't pitched professionally in 2 years. Interesting thoughts on the Walker signing .. Maybe there is a conspiracy ..
    This comes back to depth. The front office knew that they couldn't get by with AAA guys making spot starts so went after quantity. I believe this is the case for the previous years as well. 
  12. Like
    Tim got a reaction from smartfred in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    really cool exercise, nice work putting this together! Definitely a great argument you have.
    But I think the issue more has to do with identifying pitching, not necessarily spending. Teams hit on lower tier free agent pitching every year, unfortunately the Twins haven't. While none of these guys are true aces, they've all pitched extremely well and could've absolutely been had this past offseason if the Twins decided to chose them.
    Anthony Desclafani - 1/6 mil  - 11-6 / 3.24 / 141 IP/ 132 SO
    Robbie Ray - 1/8 mil - 11-5 / 2.60  / 166 IP / 212 SO
    Carlos Rodon - 1/3 mil - 11-5 / 2.41 / 119 IP / 168 SO
    Taijuan Walker - 2/20 mil - 7-9 / 4.15 / 138 IP / 129 SO
    Obviously it doesn't always work out. Paxton, Kluber, Quintana, Richards, etc. all signed similar 8-12mil 1 year deals and haven't produced. I think that's just the game though with free agent starting pitching. I think a big part of teams choosing to go this route has to do with looking ahead to future free agent classes and when to allocate money to the starting rotation.
    A lot of it is luck and that goes for the mid tier category as well. It's not easy to find solid starting pitching and if you can hit on a deal like the ones listed above, why risk it. Identifying talent is the issue .. or luck. cant decide yet.
     
  13. Like
    Tim got a reaction from Dman in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    really cool exercise, nice work putting this together! Definitely a great argument you have.
    But I think the issue more has to do with identifying pitching, not necessarily spending. Teams hit on lower tier free agent pitching every year, unfortunately the Twins haven't. While none of these guys are true aces, they've all pitched extremely well and could've absolutely been had this past offseason if the Twins decided to chose them.
    Anthony Desclafani - 1/6 mil  - 11-6 / 3.24 / 141 IP/ 132 SO
    Robbie Ray - 1/8 mil - 11-5 / 2.60  / 166 IP / 212 SO
    Carlos Rodon - 1/3 mil - 11-5 / 2.41 / 119 IP / 168 SO
    Taijuan Walker - 2/20 mil - 7-9 / 4.15 / 138 IP / 129 SO
    Obviously it doesn't always work out. Paxton, Kluber, Quintana, Richards, etc. all signed similar 8-12mil 1 year deals and haven't produced. I think that's just the game though with free agent starting pitching. I think a big part of teams choosing to go this route has to do with looking ahead to future free agent classes and when to allocate money to the starting rotation.
    A lot of it is luck and that goes for the mid tier category as well. It's not easy to find solid starting pitching and if you can hit on a deal like the ones listed above, why risk it. Identifying talent is the issue .. or luck. cant decide yet.
     
  14. Like
    Tim got a reaction from Minny505 in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    Honestly at the time, Happ was a lot safer of a signing than taking a flier on Kluber. Happ had pitched to an ERA below 4, 5/6 previous years. No one expected him to be as bad as he was. Kluber was coming off surgery and hadn't pitched professionally in 2 years. Interesting thoughts on the Walker signing .. Maybe there is a conspiracy ..
    This comes back to depth. The front office knew that they couldn't get by with AAA guys making spot starts so went after quantity. I believe this is the case for the previous years as well. 
  15. Like
    Tim got a reaction from RpR in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    Honestly at the time, Happ was a lot safer of a signing than taking a flier on Kluber. Happ had pitched to an ERA below 4, 5/6 previous years. No one expected him to be as bad as he was. Kluber was coming off surgery and hadn't pitched professionally in 2 years. Interesting thoughts on the Walker signing .. Maybe there is a conspiracy ..
    This comes back to depth. The front office knew that they couldn't get by with AAA guys making spot starts so went after quantity. I believe this is the case for the previous years as well. 
  16. Like
    Tim got a reaction from TopGunn#22 in Can The Twins Fill a Rotation for 2022?   
    Yes. Will the Twins field a good starting rotation? probably not. Definitely not actually.. The only starter I would consider paying "ace money" to is Kevin Gausman. So if that means 5/115 or whatever it is, sure. Other than that, pass on the stromans, rodons, etc .. Could see them dealing Polanco, Arraez, or Jeffers / Garver for a young starter .. Marlins? We'll see .. I like Kwang Hyun Kim as a fit in the more mid tire of starters.
  17. Like
    Tim got a reaction from rv78 in The Man, The Beard, The Legend: Jake Cave.   
    Jake Cave is pretty bad and has been for a while now. Obviously it stings more to know the Twins gave up Luis Gil for him and Lamonte Wade was essentially given away to keep him around.
  18. Like
    Tim got a reaction from Minny505 in The Man, The Beard, The Legend: Jake Cave.   
    Jake Cave is pretty bad and has been for a while now. Obviously it stings more to know the Twins gave up Luis Gil for him and Lamonte Wade was essentially given away to keep him around.
  19. Like
    Tim got a reaction from woolywoolhouse in The Man, The Beard, The Legend: Jake Cave.   
    Jake Cave is pretty bad and has been for a while now. Obviously it stings more to know the Twins gave up Luis Gil for him and Lamonte Wade was essentially given away to keep him around.
  20. Like
    Tim got a reaction from Dman in The Man, The Beard, The Legend: Jake Cave.   
    Jake Cave is pretty bad and has been for a while now. Obviously it stings more to know the Twins gave up Luis Gil for him and Lamonte Wade was essentially given away to keep him around.
  21. Like
    Tim reacted to LA VIkes Fan in Wheeling n' Dealing in The West - Dodgers and Padres   
    I would love to see the Twins get May and either Lux, Peipot or Gray for Berrios. I would even throw in Robles to "help" the Dodgers bullpen. If they want Berrios and Rogers, we need to get back May, plus Lux, Gray or Gonsolin, and a solid relief prospect like Bruihl or Jackson.  A starting pitcher, starting SS and decent upside MiLB pitcher. 
  22. Like
    Tim reacted to LA VIkes Fan in Wheeling n' Dealing in The West - Dodgers and Padres   
    I live in LA and I do think the Dodgers are in an interesting position with Baauer‘s future completely up in the air. I could see them trading for Berrios but I think they would have a hard time giving up Dustin May. What do you think about taking that same deal, have the Twins give up Berrios but not Rogers, and getting back Tony Gonsolin, Pepiot and Gavin Lux? Two pitchers and a SS? 
  23. Like
    Tim reacted to SanoMustGo in Wheeling n' Dealing in The West - Dodgers and Padres   
    We are losing now, and even if they return, I expect this team to lose next year too unless the entire pitching staff is gutted and the FO is able to rebuild it completely in ONE offseason.  That will cost alot of money.  If this team is bad again next year it just pushes the entire process back another season.  This is going to happen one way or another in the next 1.5 years, so do it now.  If the FO tries to patch this thing together the same way they have in the past and it fails again...you will have one pissed off fan base.  Ohh, and the team defense needs an overhaul too.
  24. Like
    Tim reacted to Whitey333 in The Grand "Re-Tool" Experiment   
    Wow.  Excellent article and great comments by all.  The biggest take away I get from this is the next couple of years for the Twins seems very bleak no matter which way they go.  They dug themselves a deep hole by signing bargain basement pitchers that are washed up.  That's the Twins way.  Until that philosophy changed I don't see us being contenders but pretenders.
  25. Like
    Tim reacted to TopGunn#22 in Wheeling n' Dealing in The West - Dodgers and Padres   
    Either trade would be pretty good...even though I'm not overly eager to trade Berrios/Rogers.  As a Twins fan #1 and a Dodgers fan #2 I would be O.K. with the Dodgers deal.  Berrios is durable and dependable.  May is coming back from Tommy John surgery.  And Rogers gives the Dodgers a dependable LH arm out of the bullpen who could possibly close in 2022.  However, even though the trade adds up in San Diego's favor, I like Hassell and Weathers.  THAT would be a trade that (I can't believe I'm saying this) would be HAPPY with.  Weathers is just 21.  Hassell is just 19.  These are guys you can build around for years.  The other two are good filler with "potential."  I'd make this trade.
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