PseudoSABR

Scott Diamond had an ok 3 year run 2011-2013, at least in comparison to the rest of the pitching staff at that time. Otherwise I don't know that I can argue any of the choices.
And yes, man, was Shane Mack good. :)

I look forward to him coming to camp in The Best Shape Of His Life (tm)
 

omfg I'm dying
 

No

Sorry, but this all sounds like you think the Kepler we saw the last three months is the Kepler that's here to stay.
I don't buy his late career turnaround for a minute. By all rights he should have been DFA'd. As it turns out, the Twins were wise not to, and the luck paid off but they'd be foolish to double down on it instead of cashing out way up.
But whatever, it doesn't matter how one feels about Kepler. Keep him, Polanco and Farmer. If you do that, you'd only have room for a couple of free agents at most outside of the bullpen. In that scenario, what do you care about the reduced payroll? You can still go get something significant unless you're aiming for Ohtani or Bellinger.

I appreciate the discussion.
I am finding it hard to be passionate about whether the pay roll is 130 million or 160 million. My joy for the game of baseball is not correlated to the level of payroll. I think there is a lot more joy that comes when a kid you have been following over the years comes up and hits a walk off home run or makes his debut as a starter in Yankee stadium. It is that connection of following the careers of these players that keeps me a Twins fan 48 years after leaving Minnesota. 
I will be listening to or watching nearly every game no matter the payroll. I will look forward to opening day and the debuts during the season of the prospects.
I also enjoy that back and forth in this site. One thing I won’t enjoy is when every thread evolves into the same discussion about payroll that so many are rigidly passionate about. I just don’t share the same passion.

I’m hearing an awful lot about lower revenues, operating losses, etc.
The numbers on the income statement mean nothing for an MLB baseball team in terms of available resources.  There is so much non-cash crap running through there (depreciation, amortization, deferred, and unrealized items).
The items I want to see on their financials that will tell me what they can really afford:  Balance sheet, Cash Flow Statement and Statement of Retained Earnings.
People make it sound like they have to decrease payroll or risk some sort of insolvency.  That’s absolutely absurd.  They could run a payroll much larger they are and still be making money hand over fist.  They use numbers accounted for on a different basis to fit the “affordability” narrative.  I see the defenders switch from cash basis, to accrual basis, to whatever meaningless pile of numbers they can to paint a picture.  It’s disingenuous financial analysis.
In reality, the average MLB team value went up 12% in 2022.  They bought the team for $44 million.  They’ve earned nearly $1.5 billion in unrealized gains sitting in retained earnings.  That number doesn’t get factored into what they can afford, and the argument is “noncash.”  In the same breath, people will say, “they’re not cheap they had an operating loss last year.”  That includes all sorts of noncash stuff.  You need to the full picture, which nobody has.  What’s the EBIDTA?  Bet it’s nowhere near a loss.  What’s the owners draw from the company every year?  Bet it’s pretty healthy.
People like to talk like they’re so sure of the financial situation of this team, but have no idea what these numbers mean and how businesses actually accumulate value.  Freaking Amazon operates at a loss every year while Jeff Bezos has created a net worth of $150 Billion.  Would you buy it if they told you they had to cut salaries next year because they might lost a little bit of revenue that’s relatively insignificant to the companies actual value?
It’s insulting for them to come out and say “we can’t afford this or that, but everyone come spend absurd percentages if you disposable income on $12 cans of beer and tickets to watch us lose every GD year.”  All while they increased the cost of buying anything in Hennepin County by .15% to pay for their stadium, which increased their personal net worth by hundreds of millions.
Just a little perspective from my career experience.  I don’t blame them for making money and being frugal, good for them.  That’s how you make money in business.  But, all of the “they’re not cheap - look at the operating loss” I’ve been hearing lately is based on a false premise.

Castro OR Martin succeeding v. Keirmaier staying healthy & succeeding…………I like the cost and probability blended risk of the former.
If we’re signing a FA for CF with a good glove and decent health history to reduce risk of the young guys, Taylor has to get serious consideration.

I think your predictions are a bit low, by 15-20%.   If the Twins could get Gray at 3/60, they should absolutely get it done.

I think your predictions are a bit low, by 15-20%.   If the Twins could get Gray at 3/60, they should absolutely get it done.

I think your predictions are a bit low, by 15-20%.   If the Twins could get Gray at 3/60, they should absolutely get it done.

Not my predictions, Jim Bowden's predictions. An additional 15% on the deals around 25/year would put them at nearly 29/year. 20% would put them at 30/year. There are currently 6 big league starters making 30/year. They're named Scherzer, Verlander, deGrom, Cole, Strasburg, and Ohtani. There's only 1 other pitcher making 29 (sale). Carlos Rodon signed for 27/year over 6 years last year. Beyond that there's no other starting pitcher in baseball making 25/year. You're suggesting that we'll go from 8 guys making over 25 mil to 12 in 1 offseason? That'd be a big bump. I think 25ish mil a year is probably a pretty good baseline for those guys.

I think best case scenario, and what I'm hoping for while not expecting, is a Jackson Holliday style rise through the system. Reaching AAA at the tail end of 2024 would be fantastic. Not expecting it, but sure would be awesome. But I think AA is a realistic, wonderful outcome for him in 2024. AA with an AFL appearance would have me very excited for 2025.
He's very young, and there's a long ways to go, but it sure would be great for the Twins to have one of these phenoms fly up the system. An MLB debut before he can have a legal drink to celebrate it would be a fantastic outcome, and I think it's relatively reasonable.

I went to school for healthcare, not math!

I still carry it as my location since we moved here.

I recall another attempt at a wiki on a Twins website long ago, with varying results...

Canada City will live in infamy forever.

I recall another attempt at a wiki on a Twins website long ago, with varying results...

Buxton is done.  His past points to an injury plagued future.  They need to move off him.

Did anyone else catch Jayce Tingler's interview on Foul Territory between playoff rounds?
Although it's largely a bunch of pre-canned yet friendly non-answers, I thought what he said in response to Adam Jones' question (starting circa 9:30 in the video) shed some unique light onto the big-picture organizational process of integrating analytics. Seemed a little informative and very reassuring.
I'm curious about what others think here...maybe I'm making too much of Tingler's enthusiasm (ultimately this might just be his means of getting a head start at managerial interviewing?).