I recently wrote about how I’ve lost faith in this front office and this exercise didn’t make me feel any better. To be fair, there’s still a lot yet to be determined from some of these trades. The Twins have quite a few of the players acquired in these deadline deals still in their system. Still, I think there are some things we can take away from revisiting these deals.
We’re going to be using FanGraphs’ version of WAR to evaluate these deals. That seemed like the most direct way to put a number on these things, but no matter how you want to look at it I think you’re going to come to the same conclusion. It’s not very close. Well, at least for now.
Here’s a breakdown on how the Twins made out from the 2017 trade deadline.
John Ryan Murphy
Let’s take a look at 2018.The Twins didn’t get much here, and only have Tyler Watson left from this group. Watson has a 2.45 ERA this year but it’s as a 24-year-old in High-A. Huascar Ynoa has a 3.02 ERA in the big leagues at 23. Things already don’t look good for the Twins here, but Ynoa figures to be in Atlanta’s rotation for years to come. Yes, John Ryan Murphy really did provide some value (almost all of it on defense) as a backup catcher during the two-plus years of team control he had after the deal.
Ernie De La Trinidad
Chase De Jong
The Escobar and Pressly figures are only from their years of control that were traded at the time. Credit to their current organizations for signing them to extensions, but anything they’ve done during those additional seasons shouldn’t be factored into these trade evaluations. Lance Lynn, man. He flipped his K:BB ratio from 1.61 with the Twins to 4.36.
The Twins are way behind so far, but Jhoan Duran and Co. could eventually swing things the other direction. Still, being three years removed from this trade deadline and having seen very little materialize on the big club is a bit of a letdown.
If there's one prospect acquired who you'd hope would be on his way to becoming an established major leaguer by now it's Jorge Alcala. He turns 26 later this month and has been worth -0.4 fWAR so far this season. He actually has a worse FIP than Alex Colomé this year. Alcala ranks 171st among the 177 qualified relievers in FIP this year. Yikes.
Onward to the 2019 deadline.
The same logic that applied to Escobar and Pressly applies here with Romo. This only accounts for 2019. He became a free agent after that season and signed a deal to return to Minnesota, so his performance that year was not included.
The Twins actually come out ahead, so far, but that Sam Dyson trade could really end up biting them. I’ve always thought that trade with the Marlins was pretty clever. The Twins front office managed to buy for now and later. Romo pitched well and Chris Vallimont is looking quite intriguing in Double-A. He cracked Twins Daily’s top-20 prospects in our most recent update. Lewin Diaz could end up being a nice piece for Miami but it’s not like the Twins need another left-handed bat or first baseman.
And that’s it. The Twins didn’t make any moves leading up to last year’s trade deadline. Let’s tally up the damage.
Things don’t look great. Sure, the Twins have some prospects that will hopefully improve upon their current mark, but Ynoa and the prospects dealt at the 2019 deadline could also tip the scales the other direction.
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