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TopGunn#22

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  1. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to gunnarthor in Byron Buxton Isn’t the Next David Ortiz   
    Is Buxton going to go somewhere and load up on PEDS? 
    Also, isn't it great how ownership has completely persuaded the fan base that low payrolls were so natural that no one blames the Pohlads for not paying to keep Ortiz and are willing to accept payroll as a reason to not pay Berrios or Buxton?  
  2. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to mikelink45 in Byron Buxton Isn’t the Next David Ortiz   
    There is no answer to this question - it comes down to a variety of issues:
    Do the Twins think he can be healthy?
    Does he want to be here?  
    Did last place sour him?
    Will the Twins meet the demands of the agent?
    Is the agent willing to negotiate?
    Do we have a CF if he is gone?
    What is his market value?
    If he leaves will a FA want to come to the club minus its biggest star?
    Stay tuned.
  3. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to jun in 40 Man Roster Management October Update   
    Why do people believe in unproven player like Strotman? I would rather believe in Thielbar, Garza, Gant, Vincent and even Coulombe.
  4. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to Rosterman in 40 Man Roster Management October Update   
    What scares me is that the Twins could into spring training with Maeda, Balazovic, Colina, Duran, Enlow open the 40-man roster, and be hard-pressed that any of them will be up with the team for even 50% of the season.
     
    Throw in names like Winder, Gore...and will Moran rally step forward and break camp with the Twins...that's seven pitchers that you want to keep in the organization, one other go on the 60-day IL. None you would jettison for a minor league free agent signing. Throw in Ryan Mason as another consideration for a 40-man spot. 
     
    Do you really see any of Barraclough, Hamilton, Farrell, Garza, Gant, Jax, Stashak, Thielbar, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Gibaut, Albers, Vincent, even Coulombe being grabbed by ANY team and given a 40-man roster spot? Sure, most of them will sign as minor league depth somewhere, and probably all of them would get a callup to the majors next season with someone, somewhere. But I'm sure the Twins can find similar names that other teams jettison to fill replacement value ranks on any or all of these guys.
     
    But back to the first paragraphs...alot of young arms the Twins need to protect who DO have a chance to pitch for them in the future with better than average results. Would you rather see Enlow or Barnes or Strotman end up on another team, or any of the fringe min or league free agent signings that the Twins now have as roster placesetters?
  5. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to DJL44 in 40 Man Roster Management October Update   
    His best asset is clearly his versatility in the field. Take that away and he's mostly useless as a DH. He would have been worth less than 0.5 WAR this season as the DH. You really want to put Arraez at DH and keep Sano in the field?
     
    You think the Twins could get that lucky?
  6. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to stringer bell in 40 Man Roster Management October Update   
    Bullpen options: Minaya was very good. He throws 95-96 with the fastball and has developed trust in his changeup. I think he might have earned a spot on the 40-man. Garza's last outing was perhaps his worst as a Twin, but in his audition, he was pretty good, as well. He's under 30, but out of options. I guess I'd like to see if the Twins can sign him to a minor league contract. As noted, there will be guys added to the 60-day IL as soon as eligible, so a couple of guys on minor league contracts will be able to be added by Opening Day 2022.
  7. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to Alex Schieferdecker in 40 Man Roster Management October Update   
    I'm pretty high on Jax as a reliever. He has been very good the first time through the order, and if only asked to pitch an inning at a time, I think his stuff would benefit from being dialed up a few degrees. I'd definitely keep him as a bullpen arm.
  8. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to MMMordabito in 40 Man Roster Management October Update   
    Enlow could also be added to the 60-day IL once ST starts.  
    I'm in the camp that Rooker should be kept for more shots at opportunity, but I think you have a pretty good pecking order.  
     
  9. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to Danchat in 40 Man Roster Management October Update   
    Over the summer we analyzed the Twins' 40 man roster and what moves would have to be made to protect the right prospects and which fringe players to keep. Now that the season is nearly over, let's have a look at the updated 40 man roster (which is now at 49 with all the guys on the 60 day IL!), sorted by category.

    Some topics worth discussing:
    Where does Arraez end up? Playing LF and 3B seems to be harming his value, and Polanco should have 2B locked down. Would it make sense to trade him? John Gant, from what I've seen, will be maximized as a reliever rather than a starter. After a disastrous start, the Twins' bullpen has covered the middle innings well, so is Gant superfluous?  Speaking of 'middle' relief, I am hesitant to give up on Stashak after he was a strong cog in the system in 2019 and 2020. I also think Edwar Colina is too talented to try and sneak through waivers. Griffin Jax's only path to being a MLB pitcher might be through the pen. How many middling relievers should be retained on the 40 man to pitch the middle innings? Here's what I will be rolling with for my 40 man roster in preparation for free agency and the Rule 5 draft:
    #1-26: All the Locks
    #27: Cody Stashak - I can't give up on him yet, and his peripherals in 2021 suggested he was prime for positive regression. He won't have a lot of rope in 2022, however.
    #28: Nick Gordon - He has shown enough as a bench bat and utility player to be worth a roster spot. It's nice to finally have base-stealing speed on the bench. But many questions loom - will he ever be able to handle SS and will he develop any power?
    #29 - 34: Rule 5 protections in Lewis, Miranda, Winder, Enlow, Sands, and Palacios. IMO Enlow is too good to expose to R5, unlike Nick Burdi was several years back. He won't be placed on the 60 day IL as he would receive MLB pay and service time, so he will just take up a 40 man roster spot all season. Palacios is the one borderline guy I will keep, as from what I've read he can handle SS and he's hit well at AA. With Gordon unlikely to be trusted as the backup SS, I wonder if Palacios could fill that role further down the road.
    As for the other prospects, I simply don't value Severino as highly as others. He likely lands at 2B, and while he's had a breakout year with the bat, his power still hasn't developed. If someone claims a 22 year old from A+ with a nondescript track record... well, I can live with that. Vallimont has not been good at AA and should be moved to the bullpen. Javier just can't hit. Funderburk intrigues me, but probably ends up as a reliever if he makes it to the majors. Rijo has been hurt most the year, like most of our pitching prospects.
    The rest of these spots are placeholders for trade targets/free agents/wavier claims:
    #35: Brent Rooker - I don't think Rooker has a long future in the majors, though there is reason to believe that there is something more diving into the numbers - see bean5301's article on that here. 
    #36: Griffin Jax - I like that the Twins gave Jax a chance, but he has failed to show promise. Just maybe he can work as a long reliever, but I wouldn't save him a spot on the 40 man for that.
    #37: Juan Minaya - He's pitched far better than expected, but I see regression coming. I think the Twins could DFA him and bring him back on a minor league deal instead of going through arbitration.
    #38: Devin Smeltzer - He was only hitting 87/88 MPH before having a UCL tear. We need starting pitching depth, but I am unsure whether Smezlter will still be up to the task.
    #39: Ralph Garza - The waiver claim hasn't been half bad, but there's also little upside here. He could sneak through waivers.
    #40:  Kyle Garlick - His ability to rake against lefties is nice, but he's been awful against righties and is already turning 30. He will be the first to be DFA'd.
     
    Other Notes:
    Pineda is a candidate to re-sign, but that probably won't happen until later, probably past the Rule 5 draft.
    Maeda can be placed on the 60 day IL to save a spot when Spring Training starts, or sometime around then (if I remember right).
    MLB is probably going to have a lockout in 2022, making this all moot. 😔
     
    Let me know who you'd keep on your 40 man roster!
  10. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to tony&rodney in What Happens to the Twins Emerging Star?   
    The Twins really need to decide whether Buxton is "their" player and hopefully there is a deal worked out based off of a base plus incentives. Buxton is the real deal when on the field.
    If, and only if, it is necessary to trade Buxton then the Padres and some other teams could be decent partners. In the proposal by Capt'n Piranha quoted, I suggest a simple tweak, pulling back Garver and Ober and substituting Ryan. 
    Moving Buxton means major adjustments and pulling Garver back allows me to trade Larnach, Jeffers, Dobnak, Rooker, and Celestino for Sandy Alcantara and Max Meyer. 
    Jose Miranda will get a chance to play 1B, 2B, and 3B next season if he shows the tools next Spring Training. I'm excited to see him play for the Twins. 
    The disappointment of 2021 has manifested itself across the region and Twins fans want a return to playoff baseball or at least a relevant competitive team. Just recently Falvey reiterated that he plans to make moves that return the Twins to a different place in the standings. We shall see. We hope Buxton is back but all contingencies need to be examined and Jose Miranda is also certainly a piece of the puzzle.
  11. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to South Dakota Tom in What Happens to the Twins Emerging Star?   
    The "dump so-and-so" trade philosophies are the opposite of my thinking.  Sano?  You'd be selling low.  Kepler? Same.  The sell-high candidates right now are Buxton, Polanco, Miranda and possibly Donaldson (esp if there is an NL DH), and since I want my team to be actually good, I think the only one of those that I would actively shop would be JD.  Yes, we would eat some salary, but it would open up 3b for Miranda, extra Arraez at-bats, and if Sano does actually shed 30 pounds, he can play there as well on occasion.
    I agree with the one-year SS free-agent thinking (though my dream SS is Trea Turner if LA keeps Seager).  I don't think we're out-bidding for the top SS anyway, so the Galvis/Iglesias/Simmons combo would pave the way for a mid-season Lewis/Martin promotion (wishful thinking).  Celestino is my opening day LF, and an outfield of Celestino, Buxton, Kepler is very strong defensively.
    Kiriloff/Polanco/Iglesias/Miranda (Arraez/Gordon); Celestino/Buxton/Kepler (Larnach or Rooker); Garver/Jeffers.  Sano is DH. All 3 outfielders can play center, as well as Gordon; Polanco is backup at SS, with Gordon in emergencies. Arraez can get ABs as 2b/3b (no more outfield) and some DH, Kiriloff can play LF, Miranda can have a few days at 2b with Arraez or Sano at 3b and Polanco DH or day off.  DH is Kiriloff or Sano (whichever isn't playing 1b that day) with Larnach, Arraez, Garver.  Gordon is our pinch-runner late in games.
    $ (no more Donaldson, no 3rd arb year for Berrios, no Colome) is all spent on Buxton and pitching (and I've advocated for Pineda and Rodon, filling every bullpen slot with existing players, extra starters, or low-cost fliers). Plan B is keep JD, and substitute Miranda for Celestino in the above scenarios.
  12. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to DocBauer in What Happens to the Twins Emerging Star?   
    After reading some of the other posts here, I felt the need to add to my previous one.
    We won the central twice with Polanco at SS, and give me all the numbers and metrics you want but my eye said he wasn't the disaster some say he was there. But he's just so much better at 2B and continues to grow. Its also easier on his ankles and the last thing we need is to take an absolute stud at a position an move him somewhere where he is less effective and could put greater strain on his ankles.
    High Heat summed up the lineup rather succinctly; guys get hurt and your initial lineup/roster construction will vary throughout the year. It's a GOOD THING to have more talent than roster spots! Your 13 man player roster will need to be expanded out to about 18-20 guys before the season is done. And the "problem" the Twins have offensively is not really MORE offense, just better health and more CONSISTENCY.
    C] Garver/Jeffers with Rortvedt at AAA. (Astudillo if around). Garver also takes turns at DH to keep his bat in the lineup.
    1B] Kirilloff/Sano/Miranda/Astudillo/maybe some Garver: AK can still play the OF and Sano can DH
    2B] Polanco/Arraez/Gordon/Miranda
    SS] FA/Polanco/Gordon (need a good glove at AAA just in case)
    3B] Donaldson/Miranda/Arraez/Astudillo/Gordon 
    LF] Larnach/Arraez/Kirilloff/4th OF TBD/Rooker/Gordon/maybe Miranda/Celestino
    CF] Buxton/Kepler/Gordon/maybe 4th OF TBD/Celestino
    RF] Kepler/Larnach/4th OF TBD/AK/Gordon/Celestino
    DH] Donaldson/Sano/Arraez/Garver
    Unless I just forgot how to count, that's 19 guys for 13 spots and depth. Rortvedt and Celestino and probably Rooker begin the year in St Paul. (IMO, Rooker is protected over Refsnyder and Garlik each of whom I'd love back on a milb deal). My roster includes a FA SS TBD, as well as a RH 4th OF who may or may not be a CF option, (I hope he is). I've been banging tbat drum for some time now and will continue to do so. It's very possible the Twins will look for a proven corner option allowing Kepler and Gordon to be the backups. Further, they could just blow off my opinion all together, LOL, and stick with the RH options already on hand. But you see how easily the numbers work out for the roster and depth, right?
    And YES, I'm including Astudillo for now. I fully recognise he might not be protected due to the numbers game. And if NOT protected, I would also love to have him back on a milb deal. IMO, left unprotected, someone would try to sign him for his versatility and his intangibles. I also think he'd rather stick with the Twins on a milb deal, maybe a split deal, vs going elsewhere. 
    The whole point is, there is a lot of talent available here to have a good roster for 2022, albeit a couple young guys still proving themselves and fitting in. Larnach is a perfect example. He is just so close to proving he's ready, but might not break camp. And let's use AK as a comp for Miranda for 2022. For whatever reason, Kirilloff just had a lousy ST even though be was virtually handed a job. So he went down. He sure looked ready a month later and rocked it before a 2nd wrist injury curtailed his year. I believe in Miranda, like AK, 100%. But does he have to be handed a job? No. Again, having too much talent and depth is a GOOD THING.
    And to further repeat myself, I am NOT saying the Twins shouldn't/can't/won't trade someone off the roster for pitching help. But if they bring back Pineda, which I believe they will, they ABSOLUTELY have the $ available to bring in Stoman to front the rotation for the next 3-5yrs. And he's durable enough, proven enough, and been tied to the Twins for a couple of years now. Makes so much sense it's scary. That leaves ONE rotation spot to be filled via FA or trade. But when I have seen how "little" the FO spent to bring in Odorizzi and Maeda, I have to question whether we actually have to disrupt the ML roster to do so.
    I'd like to keep the roster as intact as possible. Miranda WILL get opportunity and force his way, even if he's not on the roster day one.  I'd just really like the FO spend a few $M for 2 rotation spots, a little help in the pen, my preference for a 4th OF, and THEN look at the options available to them like a spreadsheet for the 3rd SP they need. Can they pull a rabbit out of the hat a 3rd time by trading within the system for a solid rotation addition? Or will the market deliver someone to them to fill that last spot? 
    There is work to do! But Miranda will get his shot, no doubt! It all comes down to how big of a re-tool we are looking at. Because there is a lot to like looking at 2022.
     
     
  13. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to jmlease1 in What Happens to the Twins Emerging Star?   
    This is why the only position player spot I want us making a FA signing in is SS. we have options to fill out what can be an excellent lineup. 4th OF could be a competition between Celestino and Martin, both of whom can play CF effectively and would provide superior D in the corners if they slot over there. both are RH, which makes them good options to back up Kepler and Kirilloff.
    I'd like to see 13 guys at the position slots:
    OF: Buxton, Kepler, Kirilloff, Celestino/Martin
    Corner INF: Donaldson, Sano, Miranda
    Middle INF: FA SS, Polanco, Arraez, Gordon
    Catcher: Garver, Jeffers
    Then you mix it up at DH with Donaldson, Arraez, Miranda, any OF that needs a day off in the field, etc, Kirilloff can get some time at 1B and give Miranda time out in the OF.
    Should be enough ABs to go around. Larnach and whichever of Celestino/Martin doesn't win the battle in spring training are the first two OF bats to call up, and Martin could move around into the infield if needed. Maybe you let Gordon be depth in AAA (he has an option left) and make sure you have a better defender backing up SS. There's room for Miranda when you dump Jake Cave & Astudillo's ABs.
  14. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to Brandon in What Happens to the Twins Emerging Star?   
    Donaldson could play 3B/DH in a 60/40 split with Miranda in LF / 3B split of 60/40 with Arreaz in LF 40% and utility
  15. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to jmlease1 in What Happens to the Twins Emerging Star?   
    i think  there's room to get Miranda reps regardless: Donaldson is going to get some reps at DH, likely miss some time due to injury/rest, and there's going to be reps available in both corner OF spots and at DH as well. Kirilloff is going to likely get a starting spot, but Miranda fits well as a bench bat who can play multiple spots.
    but good lord, can we stop putting out any articles on next year's lineup that have Polanco playing extensive time at SS? It is literally never going to happen, absent massive injuries to: a FA signing at SS (almost certain to happen), Royce Lewis, Austin Martin, even Nick Gordon, etc. The Twins want Polanco at 2B. Of course they do: he's an all-star there and it looks like he can stay healthy there too. I swear, any article that has "if the Twins slide Polanco over to SS..." in it is automatically invalid. Please stop. Polanco is a poor defensive SS, the position appears to negatively impact his health, the Twins have repeatedly shown they don't want him playing SS full-time, and he's an elite player at 2B. Trying the slot Polanco in at SS is a strat-o-matic play, not real baseball.
  16. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to DocBauer in What Happens to the Twins Emerging Star?   
    Agree that Donaldson is a positive for the Twins both offensively and defensively. He also provides a certain degree of leadership as well as experience. Now, if he suddenly wants out or is disgruntled and could be a disruptive presence, then you do all you can to move him. 
    Arguing about his health is pointless on a couple levels. No player is of value when out with injury. And if Donaldson is such a risk, even after been largely healthy and available this year, then wouldn't other teams ha e to consider that in regard to trade talks? I'm not saying don't trade him if a good/smart deal comes along. But how much $ do you have to throw in to get him moved for virtually nothing in return? And how much $ do you actually save to make a difference, especially compared to his potential value you are now losing?
    It's just not as simple/easy as saying ",move him".
    When the Twins add a SS...and hopefully a quality RH 4th OF...it's really easy to see a player roster of up to 18 players to roll through during the season. A lot of times these things just seem to work themselves out. I can't wait to see Miranda. And I'd like him playing daily or close. But unless 2022 is a true lost re-tool situation/opportunity, nothing wrong with having the most talent you can, the most depth you can, and work Miranda in rather than just handing him a guaranteed job.
  17. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to chopper0080 in What Happens to the Twins Emerging Star?   
    I like opening up the DH spot for multiple players to use vs having a dedicated DH, especially when I am trying to evaluate and grow multiple young players. Keeping Sano takes that away. I also like the ability of putting young players at the positions they are most comfortable at. I would rather play Kirilloff at 1B and Miranda at 3B if that is where they are comfortable and project the best. That doesn't mean Miranda can't get some 1B reps and Kirilloff can't get some OF reps but having three spots for each of them to get at bats on the roster is valuable along with being able to keep Donaldson fresh.
  18. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to mikelink45 in What Happens to the Twins Emerging Star?   
    I do not have the solution, but would have loved to see Miranda get some MLB exposure.  However, moving Donaldson to DH does not work for me, I watched him run out to LF and catch a fly that I don't believe more than 2 or 3 players would have gotten to.  His bat is valuable, but so is his glove.  I want Miranda up, but I do not know where. 
  19. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to Ruven in What Happens to the Twins Emerging Star?   
    Trade away in this order, for return value:
    1. Arraez - high on base top of the order guy, he has real return value despite his defensive liability
    2. Kepler — on the “better a year too early than a year too late” scale the Twins flubbed this one, but there might be a starter of some merit the Twins could acquire with Kepler and another stick (Larnach, Celestino) thrown in. Do NOT trade away or give up on any more pitching (Presley, Hendricks, Gil, Ynoa)  acquire acquire acquire
    3. Donaldson/Sano/Jeffers/Rooker — DH in both leagues increases the value of guys who can club the ball and can play a position in a pinch. Generating any return value for these guys for a proven starter will require $$s and/or adding a prospect to the mix. 
    Objective: add starters. Sign a shortstop. Start fresh. 
  20. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to tony&rodney in What Happens to the Twins Emerging Star?   
    I'm also confused why anyone sees Donaldson as anything other than a positive for the Twins. I guess it continues to beg the question - what are the Twins plans going forward? 
    Jose Miranda has had a terrific season and if he is ready to contribute at the major league level there will be a spot for him. He can be a piece next year or perhaps included in a trade for pitching. If the Twins are planning to be competitive next season (.500 or better), they will need to explore every decent free agent and trade possible. Every single player can be traded from the current roster if the trade makes the team better. Obviously, there are players we want to hold (Polanco, Buxton, Donaldson) or develop further (Ryan, etc.), but the goal needs to focus on a better team in 2022.
    Miranda needs to play where he is a better defender. If he can play an average LF and hit, fine. The Twins do not need any more weak defenders. I'm hoping he gets 500-600 at bats next year for the Twins and hits .280 with production as well as playing sound defense, likely between 3B, 1B, and 2B.
  21. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to TwinsDr2021 in What Happens to the Twins Emerging Star?   
    So am I understanding correctly, The Twins should trade a 3B with a 3.2 WAR in in 132 games, and 3.6 in 160 games and eat millions and millions of dollars , for salary relief and hand a spot to rookie 3B?
     
     
  22. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to rv78 in What Happens to the Twins Emerging Star?   
    "He could slot in as Baldelli’s everyday third basemen."
    That'll never happen. Baldelli doesn't know how to play someone everyday.
    "Sano being the primary designated hitter also reduces the lineup flexibility for Baldelli on a nightly basis."
    This would be a good thing. The good players need to be playing everyday. Reducing Baldelli's ability to put his scrubs like Cave and Astudillo into the lineup makes the team better.
    Unfortunately for 2022 this team won't change much on the field except when Baldelli sets his lineup which happens daily. If everyone stays healthy:
    Garver needs to get 120+ games at Catcher with Jeffers or Rortvedt getting the other 40. 
    Sano will be the everyday 1B unless traded.
    Polanco is a no brainer at 2B. 150-160 games please.
    A new SS.
    Arraez at 3B, again 150-160 games.
    Miranda in LF, Buck in CF, Kirilloff in RF.
    Donaldson the everyday DH. 
    Gordon in a utility role. Kepler to the bench. 2 new bench players please to replace Cave and the Turtle. They aren't helping this team.
  23. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to Linus in Your best Twins memory   
    Game 7.   When Morris said let’s get it on you just had a good feeling. 
    A strange second one: when Herb Carneal would open the broadcast with Hello again everyone 
  24. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to twinssporto in Your best Twins memory   
    My favorite memory was sitting with my dad at game 7 in 1987. I was 15 years old back then....What a great World Series and so much fun! We sat behind Lou Brock about 10 rows behind first base. Watching Hrbek throw his arm up after getting the last out was a memory I'll never forget.  
     
     
  25. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to Nine of twelve in Your best Twins memory   
    This is like asking me what my favorite Beatles song is. There is no one answer.
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