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TopGunn#22

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  1. Like
    TopGunn#22 got a reaction from Minny505 in Trade Target: Chris Bassitt   
    I would use Larnach in a separate deal with Miami for pitching and go with the Soulaire, Wallner, Enlow, Strotman deal. In fact, I think the A's would probably prefer that to a one for one.  I think the Twins will need to trade for at least 3 SP's and Bassitt would be one pitcher I'd surely target.  Montas would be fantastic. but the cost to get him, like a Luis Castillo would probably be too high.  If the Twins were just ONE pitcher away, I'd be all for going after a Castillo or Montas.  The problem is, they need FOUR SP's so they have to aim for "good' pitchers but "quantity" as well.   
  2. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to tony&rodney in Scratch One SP Off the List - Rodriguez to Tigers   
    Detroit identified what they wanted and could do and then did it. I have made a few lists myself and was influenced by a recent post to add Rodriguez. I wrote his salary down as $17 million. He's gone and it is reasonable to rotate to Jon Gray. Stroman and Gausman seem a little rich, but why not hold out hope for one of these pitchers. Trades are still available but I'm hoping that movement is sooner than later because so many teams are looking for pitchers, it seems like the best will be spoken for by December 1. 
  3. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to DocBauer in Scratch One SP Off the List - Rodriguez to Tigers   
    Rodriguez was in my "second tier" as a signing for the #1 spot to lead the 2022 rotation.
    This tells me one of two things:
    1] The FO is willing to re-visit the FA market for a 3rd time, having lost out on Darvish and Wheeler, and commit to Stoman or maybe Gausman for a 4-5yr deal at $20M plus for someone to lead the staff and then add via FA or trade to find someone who is just SOLID to fill the #2 spot, hopefully with some upside. Budget still works.
    2] They expect to trade milb talent and maybe a player or two off the ML roster to bring in an arm for the potential #1 spot and still sign one of many interesting guys for the #2 spot. Budget still works.
    I'm still assuming the #3 spot is Pineda or similar. Both plans work. Losing out on Rodriguez doesn't blow up 2022 for the Twins, even though he could have been a nice signing. Smart move by the Tigers. 
    There is still a LOT of opportunity for the Twins, however.
  4. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Scratch One SP Off the List - Rodriguez to Tigers   
    Rodriguez and Gray were my personal bang for the buck choices.
    Rodriguez is off the table, now I hope the Twins are strongly considering Gray.
  5. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to raindog in Scratch One SP Off the List - Rodriguez to Tigers   
    That was my number one target for the Twins. Best realistic chance to get a high-end starter. Gray maybe is a step below, so I hope they go after him. I just don't see them aiming higher than that.
  6. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to Mike Sixel in Scratch One SP Off the List - Rodriguez to Tigers   
    Not one bit. I'd "trade" a 3rd round pick for a starter I believed in every single time.
  7. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to Andrew Mahlke in Scratch One SP Off the List - Rodriguez to Tigers   
    This is a good signing for Detroit. They are a couple of pieces (Correa) from being contenders.
    A little disappointed we couldn’t get Rodriguez and we weren’t reported to be in discussions with him lately. Will be interesting to see if we can make any signings before the CBA
  8. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to 4twinsJA in Scratch One SP Off the List - Rodriguez to Tigers   
    Hope this pushes Twins to get someone signed, Gray my choice. Could be similar numbers as Rodriguez.
  9. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Scratch One SP Off the List - Rodriguez to Tigers   
    I don't mind opt-out deals for the team. If the player is good, it sucks to lose him but also, it means you received a great performance value for a few years and aren't on the hook for the decline years. I take that trade-off almost every time, especially in pitchers where decline often comes suddenly and sharply and injury is a persistent concern.
  10. Like
    TopGunn#22 got a reaction from Karbo in Back to the Bargain Bin   
    In a "normal" off season, these would be the kind of guys that may or may not help, but that typically you'd get more "Shoemaker" than you would "Odorizzi" out of them.   However, THIS off season the Twins need to add FOUR SP's to effectively make Ryan & Ober the #5/#6 starters.  Two quality arms like Jon Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez Or Danny Duffy) would be the top two.  But Bundy & C-Mart types are certainly needed this year just to fill out the rotation and spread the innings load.  I'd throw Pineda in there as our #3, roll with Bundy as #4 and use C-Mart as a swing guy (kind of like I had suggested with Vincent Velasquez and his great stuff) to throw an occasional spot start but give you 3 innings at a time out of the pen. 
    C-Mart and Velasquez fit that profile.  Good fastball, pretty good slider.  But inconsistent.  But the sheer VOLUME of arms the Twins need to fill out their starting rotation means a couple of solid, mid-tier guys are needed as are "lottery tickets" like Bundy, C-Mart, Velasquez etc...
  11. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to tony&rodney in Can Ryan Jeffers Hit With Consistency?   
    Jeffers is young and a full season of MLB is a beast coming from college and the minor leagues for any young player. A catcher has more responsibilities, by far, than any other player on the field and the preparation is massive and exhausting for a young player. Jeffers will be fine. 
    You also asked about whether the Twins should trade a catcher. I say yes and I think quite highly of both Garver and Jeffers. Although I have not seen anything specific, I believe there are a few other teams that also think very positively of both catchers. Additionally, while I am aware of how overmatched Rortvedt looked at the plate, he also is good behind the plate and rebounded at St. Paul in September. The only concern was the concussion late in the year. I'm a believer in Rortvedt right now and could see a good pitcher coming back for Garver. 
  12. Like
    TopGunn#22 got a reaction from Doctor Gast in Where Can the Twins Improve Defensively in 2022?   
    This was a very interesting read.  Some of my "assumptions" have been shattered.  I knew that Simmons was going to be an upgrade at SS.  And he was as advertised even though I thought he would be "better' I kept expecting Ozzie Smith type plays nightly.  Honestly, the Twins haven't had a GOOD SS day in and day out since Gagne (Guzman was good, but not nearing as consistent as Greg Gagne).  If I KNEW Simmons would hit closer to the previous 4-5 years I'd abandon my Mondesi pipe dream and sign him for $3 million (that's all Simmons is worth at this point).  
    I'm really surprised Arraez was that proficient at 3B.  It makes him more valuable to the Twins and I believe more of a trade chip than I realized.  Kepler and Buxton are Gold Glove caliber.  Sano is a DH, plain and simple and if kept should bat 8th and DH.  Polanco was "solid" at 2B.  LF still remains a weak defensive position, and yes, tony&rodney  you can keep on banging his drum.  He's a GOOD baseball player.  I just think we need so much on our pitching staff that lineup improvements will need to take a back seat.  
    Because Jeffers appears to be a "Catcher of the Future" (more than Garver) for a trade partner like Miami (and because I think Rortvedt will be a stud defensively) I make a blockbuster trade to Miami with Jeffers in a package for one or two young pitchers and give Rortvedt a half season or less at St. Paul before I call him up (if he's earned it).  Tomas Tellis can be the backup catcher until that time. Honestly, Kiriloff at 1B.  Buxton and Kepler healthy and playing.  An engaged and desperate to prove he can still play Simmons and Polanco at 2B is a pretty solid foundation.  Throw in a healthy Donaldson (or Arraez if he's not traded) at 3B and the twins are fairly solid defensively.  
  13. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to tarheeltwinsfan in Where Can the Twins Improve Defensively in 2022?   
    How would the combination of Garver and Jeffers rank? In other words, if Garver had qualified, how would he rank. If JD had qualified at 3B, how would he rank? If Buck had qualified, how would he rank? #1 I hope.
  14. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to tony&rodney in Where Can the Twins Improve Defensively in 2022?   
    Signing Starling Marte would improve LF. I know, I know ..... money, etc. Just saying.
    Shane Mack played a good LF - I would like to see a solid LF glove out there, thus my wish.
  15. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to Doctor Gast in Where Can the Twins Improve Defensively in 2022?   
    I'm getting a little off subject but I was wondering why Kepler & Rosario while coming up through the minors weren't switched? Kepler while being a superior fielder wasn't put in LF and Rosario who had the superior arm not put in RF. It more sense to me, Rosario in RF might have stuck around a little longer.
  16. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to Seth Stohs in Where Can the Twins Improve Defensively in 2022?   
    The first time I talked to Kepler, he was in Elizabethton or maybe the GCL... and he has told me in the past (when in the minors) that he felt like LF was his best position. So yeah, I always thought the same thing... The first time Rosario played for Puerto Rico in the WBC, there were highlights of him throwing someone out at home from right... I think both are fine where they are, but I do still wonder what it might have looked like if they had flipped around. Probably similar. 
  17. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to DocBauer in Where Can the Twins Improve Defensively in 2022?   
    My eye test has been seeing Arraez as a solid 3B despite some bad plays here and there. There is nothing great about him defensively anywhere, but I've always believed he's solid wherever he plays. This rating seems to support my eye test. So 3B and 2B are just fine with what we have on hand.
    Kirilloff should solidify 1B as the primary there while seeing some time in the OF.
    I've maintained I'd be fine with Simmons back at SS if I knew he'd be the OPS producer he was the previous 4-5 years. Otherwise, I think a change has to be made. But there are SS options out there that are solid gloves that have decent bats who could replace him.
    Really, other than 1B, the only spot to really improve defensively...can't believe I'm saying that after the first 2 months of 2021....is LF. And until someone steps up and really grabs that spot, it's going to be a mash-up if multiple players and the defense might be questionable at times. For now, I'm OK with whatever platoon makes sense there for improved offense and average-ish defense. 
  18. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to mikelink45 in Where Can the Twins Improve Defensively in 2022?   
    I appreciate the overview. I am constantly shocked by Simmons ratings. He just does not meet my eye test but I guess I've learning that I'm not a good judge.
    I saw some really good plays by Arraez at third base and maybe that's his best position in the field. The log jam with him Donaldson and Miranda will be an interesting challenge for the team to figure out.
    Sano consistently has a bad Fielding Mark whether third base or first base and it appears to me that he is more logical for DH than Rooker.  
    The outfield is a real question mark Kepler's bat might not be enough to keep him in right field, Buxton's contract might eliminate him from centerfield and we haven't seen anybody play enough left field. In an era or launch angles and fly balls are much more frequent than ground balls The outfield is an essential defensive area that we need to look at as well. 
  19. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to Doc Munson in Are the Twins About to Build a Radically Unconventional Pitching Staff?   
    OK yes, this may be a "Get Off My Lawn!!" comment, but if we go this route I will be one step closer to moving on from being a lifelong Twins fan.  I just hate what the game is turning/turned into. pitchers only go a few innings, defensive shifts,  etc.  AND to me this makes no sense from a marketing standpoint. You need stars to market your team. The Twins are actually one of the few teams who CAN afford an ace like Scherzer... Why?  because right now we do not sell tickets. Scherzer will put butts in seats = $, which will drive concessions sales =$ He will drive Jersey sales =$  You can SELL a star like Scherzer (or anyone else)  How are you going to SELL Cahill and Tomlin?   "OK Kids lets get our Twins gear on and head out to the old ballgame... Tomlin and Cahill are piggybacking on the mound tonight!!!!!!!  sure hope there are still some good seats!!"  And, You do not even have a greater chance of winning going this route!!  The only reason you can point to the people winning World Series' like this is because the WS  has small sample sizes.  I may be proven wrong, but going this way over the course of a full season you will tire out arms.  For every pitcher you are able to keep fresh by less innings, you will have 1-2 relief pitchers get fatigued due to pitching their HIGHEST number of innings.
    And do I need to remind you how the Dodgers absolutely blew their chances by turning to short stints and using pitchers in varying roles, vs just letting their starter throw?!?!?!
     
    Lets look at the top pitching teams from last year (using the old fashioned ERA)
    1= DODGERS: Buehler, Urias, Scherzer (after trade)Kershaw (before injury) all averaged at or near 6 innings. (which is sad 6 is the benchmark now) 
    2= GIANTS: Gausman, DeSclafini, Webb, Wood = all again through at or around 6 innings per start. and these are NOT household names.
    3= BREWERS: Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Hauser... you guessed it at or near 6 innings.
    4= RAYS: Here is your outlier with 8 pitchers starting at least 10 games.
    5= WHITE SOX:  5 pitchers averaging 5 1/3 innings, a little bit below 6 innings per, but close.
     
  20. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to Mark G in Are the Twins About to Build a Radically Unconventional Pitching Staff?   
    I don't know, I think it does.  And what makes you think they will not have an entire staff built this way?  We are pretty close to it now, since JB left.  Guys going 6 or 7 would mean a 3rd time through the lineup, or, dare I even say it, a 4th time?  That is the whole point of a staff built the way we are discussing; to avoid even a 2nd time through for a majority of the guys, if not the vast majority.  And I assume only SP's would have their innings cut back because that is what would happen; as you said, relievers would have theirs increased to the point where it would be hard to tell the difference between the two.   And unless MLB changes the rule requiring starters to go 5 to get a win, what starter is going to want to pitch in that scenario?  And why do we want prospects who have been starters their whole amateur and professional lives transitioning to the majors as relievers?  I stand by the extremely humble opinion that we should be stretching them out in the minors to be major league starters, developing 3-4 pitches that would help them be successful.  Guys throwing upper 90's and racking up strike outs belong in the bullpen, true.  But if that is all you develop, no thanks; the guys who go 6-8 innings on a regular basis is what makes the others effective.  I also stand by the even more humble opinion that the design the article laid out is designed to limit innings, which limit salaries, which is fine for small market teams, but not for a team that wants to be a perennial contender.  The best want the innings and the wins, and they will go to where they can get them and that team will win.
    I have a feeling we are going to have to agree to disagree, but that is fine; I think the debate is healthy.  And, in the end, the debate might boil down to what role each given pitcher plays.  And the pitchers will be the first to tell us that they want a defined role so they can prepare both physically and mentally for a 162 game season.  Knowing what their role is gives them insight as to when they will be called on depending on the circumstances of each game as it develops.  The idea the article laid out requires too many pitchers a game all 162 games, which would require expanded pitching staffs, leaving less and less of a bench for anything else.  Sounds like a lot of the guys here want the expanded pitching staff; I prefer the added bench players, requiring more like a 12 man staff with starters eating at least a simple majority of the innings.  That's why, to me, my original posts make sense.  Thanks for the discourse.  
  21. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to tony&rodney in MLB Trade Rumors looks at the Minnesota Twins   
    He will be expensive. Marte can play a really good LF and with him on base in front of Baez and Buxton people will tune in to the games and want to be at Target Field. Like everyone else, i play around with rosters from $100-150 million. Marte is a perfect fit for my expensive team on a 4/$80 contract, though still at $145 million. Marte is not on my team at $100 million.
  22. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to Doctor Gast in MLB Trade Rumors looks at the Minnesota Twins   
    S. Marte will be very expensive because he's the really only CF on the market and demand for a real CF would be rightly ridiculous. Although CFs are in demand and there'll be a long line pursuing Buxton, none will pay what he's worth in trade. Buxton is a 5 tool player and is impacting in all of them. If FO sadly fail to sign Buxton now, I'd rather hold onto him for another year and offer him QO, while constantly try to sign him. As you mention J. Santana (who was healthy) got worthless players in return, who wasted space on the 40 man. Players in return for Buxton could potentially be worse. We've for a few years now, lack depth at CF, it'll be very difficult to find a CF that is 1/2 of Buxton to replace him. Celestino isn't ready yet, trading Buxton would create a large chasm. We shouldn't be substracting at CF but need to finally look to add an adequte sub for Buxton.
  23. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to tony&rodney in MLB Trade Rumors looks at the Minnesota Twins   
    Agreement on this priority is nearly unanimous; I agree too. However, Byron Buxton just watched his favorite team (as a kid) win the World Series. He is one year out from free agency on a team that has many questions, held him back to control his time, and knows that no matter the outcome of his own 2022 season that he is set for life financially. There are very few incentives for Buxton to sign a long term contract. The terms would have to meet his every wish. 
    The Twins are in a tough spot with Byron. How high can they go, knowing the injury history? 7/$175? If the Twins decide to trade Buxton, there will be the inevitable backlash. Who specifically can the Twins get in a trade that makes it worth a trade? If San Diego would ship C. J. Abrams ... ok, but extremely unlikely. So it is a rock and a hard place scenario.
    Buxton is the Twins main priority. Maybe just letting him play it out is an option and then surround him in a way that a Twins contract  looks more appealing later. If all else fails, Byron is healthy and playing well and he must be traded on July 31 or miss any return .... Well, play out the season or trade Buck then. I would start by signing Starling Marte and Javy Baez. Baez might just be a one year contract, if he is open. This would be followed by making several aggressive trades to bring in starting pitchers. The one lesson learned from the entire debacle surrounding Johan Santana was that it is an option to just let an impending free agent play out their contract. We all want to see one year of Buxton playing 150 games like his April and September from last season. He is just so damn much fun to watch.
     
  24. Like
    TopGunn#22 reacted to DocBauer in Offseason Blueprint: A Two Area Focus   
    Ted, we agree on Stroman and Gray and I have the 2 of them heading my 2022 rotation. I do have Gray for a higher $AAV but happy to drop down to $10M from $12-14M. We differ on the #3 option, however. While Mahle is a fine young arm, your proposal trades away a couple young arms that might be as good and ready as early as this season. And you do so for only 2yrs of control. Not a bad idea, but why not Cobb or Pineda on a 1yr or 1+1  deal to solidify the rotation and provide opportunity for the young arms nearly ready?
    I like the Holland idea as a cheap flier with rebound upside. But there are 3 or 4 arms I like and feel safer about for another few $M and I think I'd go that route to better secure the back end of the pen.
    Baez would be awesome. I'd love it! But it means keeping the bullpen add and 3rd SP at low cost and that's where I'm going to disagree with Baez coming on board.
    I think Stoman should sign for $18-20M. But it's going to take $22-23M IMO to get it done. And Gray has been good enough, is young enough, and still has some upside I think he's going to be $12-14M. I hope I'm wrong, but that's how I see it playing out.
    That's why I look at a filler SS that is a solid player and a better addition to the pen. Even then, the payroll is pushing for the extra 10% that I'm calling for with butts in the seats, 2020 behind us, and the FO saying they intend to be competitive. $140M-ish payroll is well within the financial parameters the Twins have spent in recent years, and fits comments made by the FO that they are looking at keeping payroll within recent parameters. And the only long term $ they are committing is to a couple quality rotation arms. Those two commitments should in no way handicap the near future.
    I just don't see a fit for Baez, or any other top FA SS, unless A] The Twins bump payroll to $150M, OR B] The Twins can actually, successfully, lower obligated payroll with a move of Donaldson and maybe Sano. Then, you MIGHT have room to add a top SS FA. Even then, it might take some  combination of BOTH A AND B to get it done.
    I think the offense, and offensive potential is good to great.. I think the defense has a chance to be pretty solid as well. I think the team can compete as long as the staff is SOLID and the pen is SOLID. Neither has to be GREAT. But both have to be SOLID.
    Wish there was an easy/smart/lucky way for the rotation to be re-tooled and the pen have at least ONE solid addition and still leave room for one of those top FA SS. I just don't see it.
     
  25. Like
    TopGunn#22 got a reaction from Doctor Gast in Are the Twins About to Build a Radically Unconventional Pitching Staff?   
    I've been mentioning the problem of the Twins having only Ryan and Ober on innings limits and referring to them as a #5 "combined" or a #5/#6.  I'm much more in favor of a SIX man staff that allows Ryan and Ober to have their innings limited without disrupting the entire staff.  I sign Eduardo Rodriguez and Jon Gray as mid-level FA SP's.  I'd swing a trade or trades to add:  Bassitt and/or Manaea  /  a couple of young arms from the Marlins.  Whatever.  I don't like the mentioned "out of the box" idea.  I would rather leverage what we have on the big league roster and minor leagues to get some balance.  No "well managed" team should find themselves with the dearth of pitching the Twins currently have.  
    Finally, I'd consider adding a Vince Velazquez to the staff to be a multi-inning (3 at a time?) kind of guy.  They simply NEED to add SEVERAL pitchers.  By choosing the correct "mid-tier' guys they can be successful.  I'm realizing that paying Robbie Ray or Stroman $20-$25 million per year doesn't allow the Twins to add the DEPTH they need.  They're not going to get anything out of Balazovic, Duran, Winder, etc...until at least July.
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