Oldgoat_MN

Whenever I see Wallner identified as a trade chip I wonder what people think of him.
328 MLB players had >=250 PA in 2023. Matt Wallner had a higher OPS (.877) than all but 17 of them.
He had a .328 BABIP (higher than all but 60 of these same 328), but that OPS is still impressive. 
Was that a fluke? Is he going to regress to the point that he's easily and cheaply replaced?
Really fun ideas here, but each trade proposal suggested exposes some confidence (or lack thereof) in our current player.

The Twins pursued Pablo for years. They obviously knew him well. They even had a plan to unlock the next level for him. To Pablo's credit, he was able to take it on, including adding a sweeper and using it immediately.
I'm curious who else they're following closely. Based on stats, Sandoval looks like a solid comparison. I'd just caution that some of the things that make Pablo who he is do not show up so obviously in the stat line.

In 32 starts in 2023, Burnes made it into the 7th inning 9 times.  In 32 starts, Gray made it into the 7th inning 10 times.
Burnes covered 9.2 innings more than Gray, over the course of the season. 
The difference is not night and day.

I'm not sure how much it matters, which I guess puts me in the "stand pat" camp. Barring disaster (e.g., injuries) they will win the AL Central. Playoff success, now that we are not guaranteed automatic losers in the first round, is all about the luck of playing your best at the right time. None of the division winners made the WS last year, and this is not unusual. 
It could easily happen that the Twins unload potentially excellent prospects for someone who adds 2-3 wins and allows them to win the division by 10 games instead of 7. But it's what he does during the postseason that matters at this point. Another Gray-quality pitcher would likely make a difference, but I'm not sure we can afford (in prospects or cash) anyone with a high probability of matching Gray's 2023 performance, which was far better than his "typical year." Maybe we'll get lucky and Ober, Ryan, or one of the younger pitchers will make that step up??

Nick, excellent write-up as usual.
My reactions: 1. Burnes is a decent target but i fear the cost. The package of Polanco plus Festa might not be enough for Milwaukee but I'm not trading Festa either. If i had to pick one position player and one pitcher to protect among prospects, it is Jenkins and Festa.
2. The information came out on both budget and Moran after this exercise. Soto makes no sense unless the budget reaches $160 million, and even then it is a stretch. Same with Glasnow. Losing Moran was a blow as he has promise and held value before the news of his elbow tear.
3. Keller is who the Pirates need right now, especially after news of Oviedo going down. Pittsburgh is unlikely to listen on pitchers. This is true for Cincinnati as well.
4. Seattle is a darling object for teams looking to add pitching. The cost could be high. Polanco and Kepler have relatively inexpensive contracts. They would be the top choice (Polanco) or one of the top (Kepler) players in their positions. Adding a couple of guys like Tanner Schobel to them might bring back Bryce Miller. Hancock has been lauded but has had some trouble getting his career moving. Is Hancock an improvement over Festa? I wonder what any of Julien, Lee or Lewis returns? 
5. We don't know how either the Twins or other teams value players. Trading Polanco and Kepler may severely weaken the Twins making our speculations moot.
The board clearly believes that a trade is the expected path to acquire a strong pitcher. Guys like Giolito and Severino would be possible additions later in the offseason perhaps. Can the Twins just stand pat and play the hand they have right now? I guess that is another article.

Kepler, Castro and Wallner had WRC+ above league average. Larnach was close to average with a WRC+ = 99. This is without Buxton. Granted, the defense is not elite. Data is from Fangraphs. 
 
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&pos=of&qual=150&team=8
 
By team OF, the Twins were slightly above average, 11th or 12th depending on which metrics are used.  The OF position most in need of upgrading from 2023 is CF. Because of uncertainty surrounding Buxton, this also the most difficult to manage. There is also uncertainty with regards to Kepler and Wallner maintaining this past year’s production. 
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&pos=of&qual=150&team=0%2Cts&sortcol=21&sortdir=default&pagenum=1
 

Ted, Thanks for an interesting and entertaining article. I would enjoy more articles like this.

Love this kind of insight.  Very cool experience.

What a great inside look at the game.

I don't understand the business logic of cutting loose a player who plays the same set of positions, is faster, better defensively, hits for more power, and had a far better year than Gordon last year. This strikes me as too cute by half.

Castro, I believe, is a better defender and is coming off possibly a breakout season, but the fact he is a switch hitter puts the nail in the coffin. We are loaded with left-handed bats.

Gordon’s injury last season was incredibly disappointing after his spark plug season in 2022. Let’s remember his great play through August and into September that season was instrumental in keeping us in the race.
Assuming the Twins carry 13 position players on Opening Day and Buxton is the titular DH and Vasquez is the backup catcher, that leaves four spots available for Gordon: starting CF or one of three utility spots.
Could he be the starting CF? Probably not.  But what if he platooned in that role with the right handed hitting Martin?  Castro and Farmer are then your other two bench players.  Theoretically, all four of those players - plus Jeffers on days he’s not catching - could be used in the DH role when Buxton needs a break. Hmmm.  Cheap solution too.  But he (or Martin) would still have to beat out Larnach (assuming Wallner and Kepler are our starting corner outfielders).  So, yeah, at the moment before any trades, it seems like Larnach, Martin and Gordon are battling for two bench spots.
I’ve written way sillier things on the TD……..

The Donaldson and Simmons et al era really cemented something very important for the current squad.  Team matters, character matters, working together matters.  Correa drives culture and I would be very surprised if they intentionally brought in one of these disruptive type forces again. 

I love Rule of 5 season... because it always makes me think of Santana which of course makes me smile!

I'm just happy  to see Martin finally making it look like there might be a return on the Berrios trade.

No

Bellinger is going to get paid. A lot. Like more than 150 million. No way the Twins are a player there.

Because he's obligated to keep rehabbing and trying to make it back each year. If it's not happening, there is some value to both parties in negotiating an amicable parting.

You mean we can't just trade all the players we don't necessarily/hypothetically love for another team's best players? What's up with that? :)
Also, I'm trying to find, in the settings menu, where to turn injuries off for 2024. Have you been able to find that? :)

Depends on the pitcher. I really like Julien's bat, and actually think he should start trying left field a bit to be honest. 

Check the brakes.
Remember everyone howling about Miranda butchering 3rd with a pro defensive avg of .950 at 3rd.
Lee? .947/.954, 3rd/SS. Not sure I see Gold Glove there.

Wish Nightingale would quit reporting the Twins were cutting payroll because of the Bally Contract!! Every team that has resigned or found a new vendor have seen a 20% increase. Somebody will pick up the Twins.

The Twins probably want a first class fielding person at First Base.
Kirilloff is not one and the others you suggest are worse.
They want some one who can field like Gallo, but keeps his BA above the Mendoza line.

Agree with the room on Julien's value. Agree otherwise with the list, and with the premise that if you want a clear star, you are not getting them by packaging the sweepings of our 40-man (Larnach, Winder, Sands, Moran) or players with a lot of recent injury history (Kirilloff, Miranda), or even players with ups/downs and/or injury (Kepler, Polanco), though some of these might work for lesser deals. It is why I'd keep Polo and Max (and move Jorge toward 1B more than Julien).
As to the Caretaker thing, exposing enough of that content to tease prospective buyers and give a sense of what is available behind the paywall is a great way to make sales. To answer one suggestion, there IS actually a Caretaker site within TD. For those who want a low cost option, Silver Caretaker is less than $4.25 a month for year-round professional content about our favorite team, and right now there is a 25% off sale going on. This site is what it is (a place I visit all year, and live on at times of the year), because there are professionals working here in tandem with great fans. That takes money, and unsupported sites are the ones that one day just aren't there. (FYI, I don't work for TD or really know anyone that does. Just love the site.)