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Bigfork Twins Guy

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  1. Like
    Bigfork Twins Guy reacted to TheBoofIsLoose in Managerial questions   
    Math was never my strong suit, but a 43 game win swing for Rocco's managerial career would put his record at 295-164 or a 64% winning percentage, which over the course of a 162 game season averages to around 105-106 wins a year. But this is irrelevant because we can't be making up statistics and pretending that they have a basis in reality; Manager WAR simply doesn't exist.
  2. Yikes
    Bigfork Twins Guy reacted to Epravens in Managerial questions   
    It is based on being a very astute observer and noting that a replacement, virtually any replacement who manages at the professional level, would have won 43 more games during his tenure. Not to question your math skills but last year he was -15 which would have placed them at 88-74, or on the cusp of the post season. Not 106 and whatever. But varying opinions make the world go 'round and enjoyed the discussion. Thank you
  3. Like
    Bigfork Twins Guy reacted to Epravens in Managerial questions   
    My issues with the Twins manager run much deeper than his often questionable decisions regarding the pitching staff. His teams would consistently receive low marks for fundamentals, situational hitting and the manufacture of runs and those are areas that fall directly on the manager and his staff (and he is responsible for his staff). Good managers can steal games because their teams can beat you with mosquito bites. In close games that matters over a long season, which is a big reason why his WAR is -43.
  4. Haha
    Bigfork Twins Guy got a reaction from Hunter48 in Correa to opt out?   
    Way too early to be discussing opt outs. Let’s see how the season progresses for him and the team and then discuss. That said, if both he and the team do well I am hoping we offer and he accepts a longer term deal.
    I think he needs to not only like it here, but needs to see signs that the Twins have talent in the pipeline to compete.
  5. Like
    Bigfork Twins Guy got a reaction from Einheri in One Prospect That Can Fill the Royce Lewis Void   
    No room at the MLB level at the present. Let him season some more in STP for a potential call up next year or possibly include him in a deadline trade package this year.
  6. Like
    Bigfork Twins Guy got a reaction from Richie the Rally Goat in The Twins Hired a Data Guy. Wes Johnson Built a Communication Program.   
    The greatest tribute to Wes and his communication style was summed up by Sonny Gray in today's Strib article. 
    "When Gray came out of the game, he and Johnson shared a long hug in the dugout. They didn't say anything to each other. But they both knew what they were communicating."
    "It's not all the time easy to go to a new place and feel welcome with open arms. But he had his arms open from the get-go. And never one time did I not feel that I wasn't a part of this," Gray said.
    "I'm going to miss him. I'm going to miss him a lot."
  7. Like
    Bigfork Twins Guy got a reaction from kenbuddha in The Twins Hired a Data Guy. Wes Johnson Built a Communication Program.   
    The greatest tribute to Wes and his communication style was summed up by Sonny Gray in today's Strib article. 
    "When Gray came out of the game, he and Johnson shared a long hug in the dugout. They didn't say anything to each other. But they both knew what they were communicating."
    "It's not all the time easy to go to a new place and feel welcome with open arms. But he had his arms open from the get-go. And never one time did I not feel that I wasn't a part of this," Gray said.
    "I'm going to miss him. I'm going to miss him a lot."
  8. Like
    Bigfork Twins Guy got a reaction from tarheeltwinsfan in The Twins Hired a Data Guy. Wes Johnson Built a Communication Program.   
    The greatest tribute to Wes and his communication style was summed up by Sonny Gray in today's Strib article. 
    "When Gray came out of the game, he and Johnson shared a long hug in the dugout. They didn't say anything to each other. But they both knew what they were communicating."
    "It's not all the time easy to go to a new place and feel welcome with open arms. But he had his arms open from the get-go. And never one time did I not feel that I wasn't a part of this," Gray said.
    "I'm going to miss him. I'm going to miss him a lot."
  9. Like
    Bigfork Twins Guy reacted to chpettit19 in Ranking the Twins’ Top 5 Relievers by Level of Trust   
    Jax is in the 87th percentile for K% this season. I think you may be selling him short. 76th percentile for velo isn't exactly elite, but 90th percentile in whiff% shows he's certainly missing bats. He's been way different as a reliever than as a starter.
  10. Like
    Bigfork Twins Guy reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Chris Archer, Iron Man?   
    It'd be interesting to see if you could bait the opposition to go lefty-heavy against Archer, get 3-4 innings out of him, then flip to Smeltzer for 2-3 innings. That could drain the bench early in the game or the opponent would have to give Smeltzer a big platoon advantage for one trip through the order.
  11. Like
    Bigfork Twins Guy reacted to Dave The Dastardly in Jose Miranda Deserves a Shot   
    Can't agree with you on the rookie thing. The current Twins are not a playoff team. Cleveland just proved that. And a team doesn't "improve" by keeping average players in the lineup when it has rookies that may be better. But the only way you can prove a rookie can do a better than average job, is to play them. A lot. And give them all the chances in the world to play at the position they have been trained for at the level of competition you need them to play at. If you have to play them at a new position, then its only fair to cut them some slack while they adapt instead of immediately condemning their performance and ruling them a disaster.
    I've been preaching all year that this season is for the Twins to kick the tires on their prospects if they want to be a playoff team next season. Witness the negative effect  the absence of Sano and Donaldson has had. None. Yet the 2022 team is better than the 2021 team because getting rid of those two made room for Arraez and the rookies. Yeah, the rookies will make mistakes, but that's how rookies learn. And if they get enough playing time this year, they won't be rookies next season.
  12. Like
    Bigfork Twins Guy reacted to Game7-91 in Jose Miranda Deserves a Shot   
    He does. But agree he is not being served well here, specifically by the organizational philosophy of not giving a hoot about developing defensive skills. Identify their position in minors, develop their skills, and plant them in that position in mlb. Expecting young guys to plug and play positions they are not practiced at...at the mlb level ...is ludicrous. It's OJT. See Lewis,Royce.
    Our organizational fascination with developing infielders who are not tasked with mastering a defensive position in their minor league development, then asked to learn a new position on the fly at mlb level....truly is mystifying. Jack of a few positions, master of none. Miranda, et al, deserve better organizational commitment and development.
  13. Like
    Bigfork Twins Guy reacted to Game7-91 in Is Defense Part of the Twins’ Problem?   
    Defense is 1 part athleticism and 2 parts commitment/repetition.
    Polanco and Arraez initiated this FO trend of creating interchangeable infield parts. Polancos injuries necessitated a permanent shift to 2b, he has improved since. Arraez is treated like a positional wandering nomad, and the team suffers. His offensive contributions are mitigated by his defense. But its not all on him. 
    Whats worrying is the number of guys being developed in the same way. Is Kiriloff a 1b or OF? If 1b, play him there. Regularly. Miranda? Ditto. Arraez? Ditto. Lewis...SS, CF, corner? Really? After how many years , still cant figure out where he plays? Martin? What are they doing with some of the other minor league infielders featured on this site? Advancing high level prospects to MLB roster and deploying them like 26th man utility players? IMHO it is not only depressing wins now, but if our team somehow navigates this god-awful division to make a playoff series, will most certainly cost runs and games when the pressure is really on. 
    It is clearly an organizational philosophy, but its the wrong one, and is detrimental to individual player development and the actual MLB product. Identify their best positions, give them rep's in MiLB, let them develop. 
    Unless MlB wants to do something really radical, and roster for designated defense and offense....but thats for another discussion🙂
  14. Like
    Bigfork Twins Guy got a reaction from Karbo in Twins 1, Guardians 0: Devin Smeltzer Throws 6 Shutout Innings and the Bullpen Holds on   
    Good to see Smith get out of HIS jam.  He does not look like the same pitcher than he did earlier in the season.
    Good to see Gordon unleash one.
    Nice scoop at FB by Miranda on the Theilbar throw.
    I also was shocked to see Duran pulled in favor of Theilbar.  This time that strategy worked but 10 time out of 10 I would prefer to have Duran face even left-handed hitters then switch to Theilbar.
  15. Like
    Bigfork Twins Guy got a reaction from bighat in Twins 1, Guardians 0: Devin Smeltzer Throws 6 Shutout Innings and the Bullpen Holds on   
    Good to see Smith get out of HIS jam.  He does not look like the same pitcher than he did earlier in the season.
    Good to see Gordon unleash one.
    Nice scoop at FB by Miranda on the Theilbar throw.
    I also was shocked to see Duran pulled in favor of Theilbar.  This time that strategy worked but 10 time out of 10 I would prefer to have Duran face even left-handed hitters then switch to Theilbar.
  16. Like
    Bigfork Twins Guy got a reaction from glunn in Twins 1, Guardians 0: Devin Smeltzer Throws 6 Shutout Innings and the Bullpen Holds on   
    Good to see Smith get out of HIS jam.  He does not look like the same pitcher than he did earlier in the season.
    Good to see Gordon unleash one.
    Nice scoop at FB by Miranda on the Theilbar throw.
    I also was shocked to see Duran pulled in favor of Theilbar.  This time that strategy worked but 10 time out of 10 I would prefer to have Duran face even left-handed hitters then switch to Theilbar.
  17. Like
    Bigfork Twins Guy got a reaction from darwin22 in Twins 1, Guardians 0: Devin Smeltzer Throws 6 Shutout Innings and the Bullpen Holds on   
    Good to see Smith get out of HIS jam.  He does not look like the same pitcher than he did earlier in the season.
    Good to see Gordon unleash one.
    Nice scoop at FB by Miranda on the Theilbar throw.
    I also was shocked to see Duran pulled in favor of Theilbar.  This time that strategy worked but 10 time out of 10 I would prefer to have Duran face even left-handed hitters then switch to Theilbar.
  18. Like
    Bigfork Twins Guy reacted to DocBauer in What Does a Carlos Correa Extension Look Like for the Twins?   
    Sorry, years and dollars are just too much for this to happen, much as it would be fun and I've turned in to a big Correa fan. But I can and will play along.

    I understand the whole 10yrs and $35M per since it's been handed out to a similar player. But I have to say, just because it's been doesn't mean someone will do it again. I mean, you only need one team, but that team might have been the team that did so last year. Plus, you may have your choice of 3 very good ones again this year. Regardless, Correa is already playing this season for $35M, so he's really looking at a 7-9yr deal if/when he opts out.
    If the market just isn't there for 8 or 9 years, the Twins could go 7 and not feel bad about themselves. And as Brandon addressed earlier, the Twins would be in a position the next few years to front load the contract. This allows greater flexibility down the road for extensions and signings, and doesn't handcuff the payroll in Correa's final seasons when he will inevitably begin to decline.
    That's about the only way, 7yrs and front load the first few years.
     
  19. Like
    Bigfork Twins Guy reacted to chpettit19 in What Does a Carlos Correa Extension Look Like for the Twins?   
    I think Turner and Bogaerts being available leaves the door open just a crack for the Twins.
    If the Sox were willing to pay Bogaerts his asking price I'd think they already would have. From the reports out there he's pissed at their offers and he's out the door after this season. Are they good with shifting Story back to SS, or would they be willing to pay Correa what they wouldn't pay Bogaerts?
    I have to assume the Dodgers sign 1 of these 3 guys, and I'd guess it's Turner since they're familiar with him, but it really could be any of them.
    The Yankees will be interesting. The reports have been they aren't going to spend big on a SS because they have cheap ones on the doorstep that they believe in. If they come up short this year does that change? If they can't/don't keep Judge does that mean they shift to paying a SS?
    Can Philly afford a premiere SS? 
    What is happening with the Cubs? Are they going to pay one of these guys what they wouldn't pay Baez, Bryant, or Rizzo?
    The Angels get crazy and add yet another massive position player contract?
    I don't think there's any chance the Twins would go 10 years, but I think there's a remote chance they'd go 7. And that may end up being enough if his market fails to materialize again. I certainly wouldn't predict a Correa extension, but wouldn't say it's a 0% chance either. Will be another interesting offseason of SS contract watching.
  20. Like
    Bigfork Twins Guy got a reaction from chpettit19 in Is this team in free fall?   
    They are not in full free fall yet but recent results are not looking good.  They are inconsistent both offensively and pitching, especially relief pitching.  I think the pen is wearing down due to over use.  We should consider getting at least 1 more inning out of each of our starters or start bringing up a few long relievers for the pen or move Smeltzer to the pen.  Maybe try openers.  We need something different other than 4-5 innings of relief pictures each game.
  21. Like
    Bigfork Twins Guy reacted to Riverbrian in Guardians 11, Twins 10: Another Bullpen Meltdown Wastes a Great Offensive Night   
    While I remain OK with the Paddack/Rogers deal.
    I continue to wait for the front office to get bullpen serious.
    In order to be bullpen serious, they need to replace the members of the bullpen that are not trusted. 
    Either Duffey is hurt or Rocco doesn't trust Duffey right now. I don't blame the team for not trusting Duffey,  However... if there isn't trust and he remains in the bullpen. They are not bullpen serious. 
    Duffey was fresh and Rocco went back to a 2nd inning of Pagan instead. 
    Not replacing arms that you don't trust leads to moments of no other options like last night. The bullpen is used too much these days to hide liabilities. It is entirely possible to build a bullpen with stuff up and down the line. Not only possible but necessary.
    We are not bullpen serious yet. 
     
     
     
  22. Haha
    Bigfork Twins Guy reacted to Mark G in Guardians 11, Twins 10: Another Bullpen Meltdown Wastes a Great Offensive Night   
    There must be a mistake in the article toward the end.  It stated Cleveland sacrificed the runner from 2nd to 3rd and he scored on a sacrifice fly (the winning run, by the way).   How could that be?  Haven't we been told for 3 1/2 years now that sacrifice bunts don't work?  You never give up an out for a base?  Even in the 9th inning or extra innings?  Then how could that have happened tonight?  Did Francona violate a code?  Or did he forget briefly what year it was and play the game the way he was taught?  This sounds very suspicious to me; I want someone to look further into this and maybe fine Francona if he broke the computer code.  
  23. Like
    Bigfork Twins Guy got a reaction from Longdistancetwins in Minnesota’s Second Coming of Rod Carew   
    You did not mention that even Carew has been closely watching him and roots for him and has mentioned similarities like his crouch at the plate.  I like that he fouls off a ton of pitches while waiting for one to hit.  Rod did the same.  I recall watching him have like 12, 13, etc. pitch at bats just fouling them off and then punching one to left field.  This also helps the rest of the line up as they get to see the pitches plus he wears out the opposing pitcher.
    I am loving this small ball BB this year and he is a huge part of it for the Twins.  I hope he can hold on for a batting title this year.  Love his energy.  Keep up the great work Luis!
  24. Like
    Bigfork Twins Guy got a reaction from PopRiveter in Minnesota’s Second Coming of Rod Carew   
    You did not mention that even Carew has been closely watching him and roots for him and has mentioned similarities like his crouch at the plate.  I like that he fouls off a ton of pitches while waiting for one to hit.  Rod did the same.  I recall watching him have like 12, 13, etc. pitch at bats just fouling them off and then punching one to left field.  This also helps the rest of the line up as they get to see the pitches plus he wears out the opposing pitcher.
    I am loving this small ball BB this year and he is a huge part of it for the Twins.  I hope he can hold on for a batting title this year.  Love his energy.  Keep up the great work Luis!
  25. Like
    Bigfork Twins Guy reacted to rwilfong86 in The Time Has Come to Place Byron Buxton on the Injured List   
    He's been playing better, let's see how he does against the NYY then make the decision. 
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