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roger

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  1. Like
    roger reacted to Seth Stohs in Twins Daily 2021 Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year: Louie Varland   
    For transparency, and to create discussion in the hopes others will give us their rankings here, here is my ranking: 
    1.) Varland - easy choice. 
    2.) Sands - I had to do a double-take at his numbers. For being a good (mid-teens) prospect, he didn't get talked about a lot! 
    3.) Winder - Until the injury, he was certainly the favorite. And, he might just be the top prospect. 
    4.) Gipson-Long - Those strikeouts are pretty impressive. 
    5.) Balazovic - ups and downs, but he is the top pitching prospect. 
    6.) Gross - Just solid, consistent, ate innings, had a good first full season. 
  2. Like
    roger got a reaction from darwin22 in Twins Daily 2021 Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year: Louie Varland   
    A year ago Jose Miranda wasn't added to the 40-man and exposed to the Rule 5 draft.  Earlier this week, he was named Minor League Hitter of the Year with many of us wondering why he isn't in a Twins uni tonight.  
    A year ago Louie Varland had just completed his summer of doing nothing (I know he probably worked his tail off, but didn't play in a single game) and left wondering what his future would be.  Today he is named the Minor League Pitcher of the Year after an astonishing season.  Will he become the best player to ever have played for Lunch McKensie at Concordia?
    Yes, I understand that Josh Winder's season was cut short by the line drive and shoulder problem.  But looking at his numbers, he is the only pitcher in this group of a dozen pitchers with a sub 1.00 WHIP...and he did it at AA/AAA.  Furthermore, his K:BB ratio of more than 6:1 is better than all of them, except Albers, and much better than most.  I know if I were voting on this honor, after seeing several of his games at Wichita and that first gem in St. Paul, he would be at the top of my list.
    When next year's Players of the Year are announced will we also be surprised that they will have seemed to come out of nowhere?  
  3. Like
    roger got a reaction from Twins33 in Twins Daily 2021 Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year: Louie Varland   
    A year ago Jose Miranda wasn't added to the 40-man and exposed to the Rule 5 draft.  Earlier this week, he was named Minor League Hitter of the Year with many of us wondering why he isn't in a Twins uni tonight.  
    A year ago Louie Varland had just completed his summer of doing nothing (I know he probably worked his tail off, but didn't play in a single game) and left wondering what his future would be.  Today he is named the Minor League Pitcher of the Year after an astonishing season.  Will he become the best player to ever have played for Lunch McKensie at Concordia?
    Yes, I understand that Josh Winder's season was cut short by the line drive and shoulder problem.  But looking at his numbers, he is the only pitcher in this group of a dozen pitchers with a sub 1.00 WHIP...and he did it at AA/AAA.  Furthermore, his K:BB ratio of more than 6:1 is better than all of them, except Albers, and much better than most.  I know if I were voting on this honor, after seeing several of his games at Wichita and that first gem in St. Paul, he would be at the top of my list.
    When next year's Players of the Year are announced will we also be surprised that they will have seemed to come out of nowhere?  
  4. Like
    roger got a reaction from Mike Frasier Law in Twins Daily 2021 Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year: Louie Varland   
    A year ago Jose Miranda wasn't added to the 40-man and exposed to the Rule 5 draft.  Earlier this week, he was named Minor League Hitter of the Year with many of us wondering why he isn't in a Twins uni tonight.  
    A year ago Louie Varland had just completed his summer of doing nothing (I know he probably worked his tail off, but didn't play in a single game) and left wondering what his future would be.  Today he is named the Minor League Pitcher of the Year after an astonishing season.  Will he become the best player to ever have played for Lunch McKensie at Concordia?
    Yes, I understand that Josh Winder's season was cut short by the line drive and shoulder problem.  But looking at his numbers, he is the only pitcher in this group of a dozen pitchers with a sub 1.00 WHIP...and he did it at AA/AAA.  Furthermore, his K:BB ratio of more than 6:1 is better than all of them, except Albers, and much better than most.  I know if I were voting on this honor, after seeing several of his games at Wichita and that first gem in St. Paul, he would be at the top of my list.
    When next year's Players of the Year are announced will we also be surprised that they will have seemed to come out of nowhere?  
  5. Like
    roger reacted to Matt Braun in Twins Daily 2021 Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year: Louie Varland   
    Yes, that's exactly correct. 
  6. Like
    roger got a reaction from bean5302 in Twins Daily 2021 Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year: Louie Varland   
    Thanks Matt.  In your one inning example, the strikeouts were 33.3% and the walks 16.67%, with a difference of 16.67%.  So the percentage you referred to is the difference?  In the case of Winder, his strikeouts were 24.4% higher than the walks based on all hitters faced?
  7. Like
    roger reacted to Matt Braun in Twins Daily 2021 Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year: Louie Varland   
    You're comparing solely strikeouts and walks to each other instead of considering all that a pitcher can allow.
    Winder had 80 strikeouts and 13 walks, yes. But he allowed other things as well; singles, homers, groundouts, you name it. K-BB% includes all of this instead of just pitting strikeouts and walks against each other. Say a pitcher strikes out two batters in an inning, walks another, and in total, faces six hitters. If you calculated it by comparing the strikeouts to the walk, he would be at 66%. If you calculated by including all outcomes (the six batters faced), he would be at 16.7%. In a way, you can think of K-BB% as considering strikeouts along with a pitchers WHIP. Giving up more hits and walks takes away opportunities for strikeouts. 
  8. Like
    roger reacted to darwin22 in Twins Minor League Week in Review: Two Seconds and One Final Series   
    Seth:  Thanks for this end of season write up/review of our minor league affiliates.  You and your staff at TD did an outstanding job all season giving all fans daily reports!  As a "new" fan to TD, your coverage gave me a very welcome respite from the train wreck of a season with the Twins.  Being recently retired as an educator in the Kansas City area, I had the time and proximity to attend several games this summer.  An early season (May) road trip to Springfield to see the Wind Surge was followed by a 2-game trip to Wichita in mid June.  Followed that up to see the Kernels in Cedar Rapids in July.  Planning to make several trips next summer and possibly a trip to see the Saints in Saint Paul.  Looking forward to your offseason reports as the progression/advancement of Miranda, Martin, Winder, Balazovic and Winder (and others) will keep my interest.
  9. Like
    roger got a reaction from DocBauer in Twins Minor League Week in Review: Two Seconds and One Final Series   
    I continue to believe that Balazovic has 'it' and the potential to be a true ACE.  Will he?  Remains to be seen, but he sure didn't step up and get the Wind Surge a win in game one of their series.  But when he was in his mid-summer stretch he was pitching as well as anyone in minor league baseball.
    With that said, based on the games I watched this summer I believe that Winder is the top pitching prospect in the organization.  Well, maybe except for Canterino, but we didn't get to see much of him this summer.  Is unlikely Canterino could make it to the Twins before 2023 and Balazovic won't be ready before next late summer.  But Winder could be someone to step in when a starter is needed in early summer...assuming agreeable health.
  10. Like
    roger got a reaction from MN_ExPat in Bailey Ober's successful innings management   
    Great question, Brock.  And expect none of us are in position to know what is best, much less what will happen beginning six months from now.
    What I do know is that I am thrilled to be having this discussion.  Who would have ever guessed that Ober might be our most experienced internal option for the 2022 starting rotation, and possibly the best.  Who would have thunk?
  11. Like
    roger reacted to tony&rodney in Has Miguel Sanó Increased His Trade Value?   
    Exactly - What are the plans? The budget and Twins desired direction will determine how the offseason unfolds and whether we see a possible return to the playoffs or a KC/Detroit rebuild with expected heavy losing. Also, the DH in the NL is a definite factor in Sano's value. Will MLB get its act together? These questions directly impact Sano. He slots neatly into the DH role and Kirilloff at 1B makes the defense better, but I do think a team like Milwaukee would be interested in Miguel. Either way, there is still value in Miguel Sano.
  12. Like
    roger reacted to Dman in Has Miguel Sanó Increased His Trade Value?   
    He might have increased his trade value but he also looks like a decent replacement for Cruz and he can sub in at 1st base as needed.  He can probably handle third as well on occasion if he DH's more.
    I just don't see the Twins trading him though.  He has the power that they love and at times you can see pitchers don't like facing him in tough situations.  I think they give him one more year to see if he can move that K rate down a bit more and see if he stays in that 800 to 900 OPS range he was starting to find halfway through the season.  Those types of hitters don't grow on tree's.  it has taken longer than hoped but it looks like Sano might be "getting there" as a hitter.
  13. Like
    roger reacted to tony&rodney in Twins Daily 2021 Minor League Hitter of the Year: Jose Miranda   
    I have not seen Jose Miranda this season. His numbers are amazing. What is the report on his prospects for being a full time contributing MLB player? Can he be counted on to take a position next season? What about his glove, does it play at 3B? The answers to these questions are important to a consideration of where Miranda fits on a Twins roster. The average, contact, patience, and power are very impressive and if he looks anything like Kirilloff he deserves a real shot at playing time. This, in turn, affects who is available to trade. 
    Congratulations to Jose Miranda for a spectacular season. I wish I had had an opportunity to see him play. I checked milb.com every game for his line for each game and the consistency of his production was so laudable.
  14. Like
    roger reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Week in Review: Small Victories   
    Agreed on Rooker.
    I quite confident we'll see Jax in Minnesota again, almost surely from the bullpen. His slider is good enough he'll receive more chances and he has options remaining.
    I believe the chance of Cave returning is near-zero. He's now arb eligible and there's absolutely no reason to start paying him a seven figure salary.
  15. Like
    roger reacted to dex8425 in Week in Review: Small Victories   
    Solid starter, no. His benefit is versatility. He's a competent defender in all three outfield spots, not on the level of Buxton, Kepler or even Celestino. 
     
    Re Gordon: if the FO has to make a choice between Gordon and Astudillo as the utility guy, that's a no brainer. I have no doubt Gordon is going to work hard and improve.  
  16. Like
    roger reacted to Seth Stohs in Bailey Ober's successful innings management   
    With a 'regular' offseason of rest, workouts, etc., I think he can get to 140-150 innings. I do think that they need to remain cautious. There are a lot of concerns about how the missed year could effect things for at least another year. 
  17. Like
    roger reacted to Linus in Bailey Ober's successful innings management   
    I think the technical changes are really important. If he is now pitching in mechanical/anatomically better position he may be able to withstand a higher jump in innings pitched. An amazing bright spot in a bad season. Love watching him aggressively go after hitters. 
  18. Like
    roger reacted to Seth Stohs in Bailey Ober's successful innings management   
    I think they handled Ober nearly flawlessly all season. Never expected all this from him, but also, with his track record and not pitching last year, to get him to make every start and remain healthy is fantastic. 
    His previous high was 78 1/3, but even that came in short spurts with a couple of extended IL stints. So, just as important as the number of innings, they were watching his number of pitches. I know some were frustrated, but whatever the plan was, it has worked! 
    Secondly, the player development and analytics and all that stuff Falvey brought in has really helped him. First, there is the increased velocity. Second, he told me in a 2019 article about using the technology and analysis to find a release point to stay healthy, to gain velocity, to know that he needs to work up in the strike zone, etc. 
  19. Like
    roger got a reaction from Linus in Bailey Ober's successful innings management   
    Great question, Brock.  And expect none of us are in position to know what is best, much less what will happen beginning six months from now.
    What I do know is that I am thrilled to be having this discussion.  Who would have ever guessed that Ober might be our most experienced internal option for the 2022 starting rotation, and possibly the best.  Who would have thunk?
  20. Like
    roger got a reaction from Squirrel in Bailey Ober's successful innings management   
    Great question, Brock.  And expect none of us are in position to know what is best, much less what will happen beginning six months from now.
    What I do know is that I am thrilled to be having this discussion.  Who would have ever guessed that Ober might be our most experienced internal option for the 2022 starting rotation, and possibly the best.  Who would have thunk?
  21. Like
    roger reacted to Seth Stohs in Twins Minor League Report (9/24): Wind Surge Swept, Kernels Take Control   
    I wonder how many, if any, of these Wind Surge players will play for the Saints next week.
  22. Like
    roger reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Bailey Ober's successful innings management   
    There was a lot of controversy surrounding Ober, particularly in June and July, about whether to let it rip and potentially shutting him down in September or whether to keep his pitch count low - around 80 pitches per outing - in hopes that would allow him to reach the finish line in 2021. I was as skeptical as anyone but also wasn't willing to dismiss the idea out of hand, as it was an interesting mid-term strategy that I can't recall seeing used so strictly to manage innings for an entire season.

    Well, it appears it worked. Ober has hit some speed bumps in September but is still pitching adequately and has blown past his previous innings pitched numbers.
    2017: 28.0 IP
    2018: 75.0 IP
    2019: 78.2 IP
    2020: 0 IP
    2021: 108.1 IP
    He has one remaining start so he'll likely end 2021 in the 111-114 IP range, roughly 35 IP more than any previous season and infinitely higher than the zero IP from 2020.
    I find the game theory in this interesting because I don't have a strong opinion either direction: is it more important to "fight through" lineups an additional time but then shut down late in the season or is it more important to adjust to the routine of a six month season, taking the ball every fifth day? And how does each impact that pitcher's ability to expand upon that the following season?
    And speaking of which, where would you place Ober's innings limit for 2022? Is 150 IP achievable? Or would you try to push even higher?
  23. Like
    roger got a reaction from operation mindcrime in Twins Minor League Report (9/24): Wind Surge Swept, Kernels Take Control   
    The Wichita sweep is a surprise.  Did not realize that Julien had that many walks and well over .400 OBP.  
  24. Like
    roger got a reaction from TopGunn#22 in Twins Minor League Report (9/24): Wind Surge Swept, Kernels Take Control   
    The Wichita sweep is a surprise.  Did not realize that Julien had that many walks and well over .400 OBP.  
  25. Like
    roger reacted to ryan189 in 2021 Instructional League Twins   
    try to post as much info you can get on instructional league please one of those kids is my son
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