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roger

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  1. Like
    roger got a reaction from Melissa in Better Late Than Never   
    Many believe they will bring Pineda back, probably on a two year contract.  With Maeda returning late this year and lots of good prospects arriving the next couple years, a Kluber or Thor one year deal may be the perfect fit for a year in which the Twins could surprise.
    Kluber/Thor, Ryan, Pineda, Ober and Dobnak work for me as their opening day 5.  Send Jax and Barnes to St. Paul as early depth before Maeda is ready for the stretch run come August.  Add Winder and a few other prospects later in the year and the starting pitching should compete.  Will the Twins?
  2. Like
    roger reacted to DJL44 in Projected Arbitration Numbers From MLBTradeRumors   
    I agree that the low arbitration number gives the Twins some leverage for negotiations but I think that base is going to have to be above $17M. Lorenzo Cain is getting $16M from the Brewers. We know part of how salary is negotiated is keeping score. Being 3rd behind Trout ($35M) and Springer ($25M) would probably be okay but Buxton knows he's better than Cain. 5 years $87M plus incentives should be the starting point for the Twins. That makes the extension worth 4 years and $80M.
  3. Like
    roger got a reaction from MN_ExPat in Projected Arbitration Numbers From MLBTradeRumors   
    Its a shame the TD system doesn't allow me to give this piece 'two' likes.  Thanks, Doc.
  4. Like
    roger reacted to Nashvilletwin in 7 step plan for offseason   
    You absolutely are on the right track. The one factor you might be overlooking is the cash aspect. Twins ownership has been great over the past several years - essentially going all in from 2019-2021 in an attempt to gain the WS.  They’ve likely lost over $100MM since the pandemic began. We should not expect, nor demand, that they replicate that strategy given the current state of the roster. 
     
    So, with that in mind:
    1) Yes, 100% top priority.
    2) Not happening if a FA and unlikely to happen via a trade.
    3) & 6) Yes, at least two, maybe three, elite BP arms will be needed to support our young rotation, ideally one is late inning reliable.
    4) Yes, as Lewis realistically might not be fully ready until well into 2023 and no one else in the organization projects as a pure SS at the moment (we wish Austin Martin did, but he doesn’t).
    5) Yes to Big Mike.
    7) Yes, 100% - Josh for sure, and maybe Max too, to help pay for it all. Those two together (and I think we could get close to full value for Josh) plus Nelson Cruz are over $40MM. That should pay for Buxton, a SS and at least two top quality relievers.
    So I essentially agree on everything except the top of the rotation FA or acquisition. If we could get that done “economically” (i.e. in cash or trade capital) then you have nailed the post season plan.
     
     
  5. Like
    roger reacted to Rosterman in 7 step plan for offseason   
    Besides NOT bringing back ANY of the impending free agents, the Twins need to hard-address the future in the organization (according to their current needs) of Donaldson, Sano and Garver. All three have some value as bats, especially if the DH happens in the National League. Is Garver still the primary body behind-the-plate, or a future 1B/DH, and how does he really project withy that position move. Sano, in the right ballpark, could be a hammer. Donaldson still has worth. He is consistent if he plays the field.
     
    Yes, the Twins need to sign a bonifide closer. Quit having setup guys pitch the last inning. Alcala could be a possibility, but NOT yet. I hope Joe Ryan does work in the rotation, otherwise he has the stuff to be a lights out closer if he only needs to face 3-5 batters.
     
    If the Twins sign a shortstop of any contract length, then they seriously have to address the need/position for both Martin and Lewis. Couple that with the need to extend Buxton (or not)...that is another decision that has to be fuilly addressed in the off-season so you know where you are going.
     
    Sadly so many prospects lost a year of their lives sitting out 2020. 2022 will be the chance to stock the two upper levels with the guys you NEED to give the chance to shine and stay a part of the organization. Minimalize the minors free agent and concentrate on the talent you want that you have developed. If you need to stock the minors, go with the new system where you draw from the short-season play leagues. I think we will see a lot of guys in the non-tendered class or arbitration this season. Might be one or two gems. And we will see - because of the lost 2020 - an huge amount of players deciding to pursue pro-ball, or calling it quits as minor league free agents will be jockeying for a job, any job. But, still, they NEED to come secondary to your own development program.
     
    I wish the Twins could afford to blow away a top-notch starter, but they won't even come close to doling out the type of money that even Jose Berrios will command in 2023. Instead, they have to look to trade. If they trade, then they can spend the free agent money elsewhere, on that shortstop everyone wants them to have (shades of what to do with Arraez then), or a bullpen arm. Speaking of Arraez, he ahs to be a tradechip. Too bad there really aren't other names on the roster, except for perhaps Buxton. I do so wish other teams will see value in Sano, Donaldson and Garver. 
     
     
  6. Like
    roger reacted to 4twinsJA in 7 step plan for offseason   
    Here is my 7 step plan for Twins this offseason. 1) Extend Buxton. 2)Acquire top of rotation starting pitcher. 3) Acquire closer. 4)Acquire shortstop. 5) Acquire mid-rotation starting pitcher. 6) Acquire second bullpen arm. 7) Trade Donaldson. These 7 steps would be fill the biggest needs for Twins, some of these steps may need to be done by trade. Intentionally short on specifics, I feel these are the priorities for the Twins in offseason. 
  7. Like
    roger reacted to Scotts in AAA PITCHING   
    We need two veteran pitchers via trade or out right signing them.
     
    otherwise we have great depth of mlb ready pitchers at AAA and AA
     
    ps. Bring up Miranda. He is a beast put him at third end Donaldson packing!
  8. Like
    roger reacted to mikelink45 in Twins Daily 2021 Awards: Pitcher of the Year   
    Yes - he is the FA we hope we can sign for 2022.  He is the pitcher we hope the team can bring up from the prospects.  Good luck Mr Berrios.  I hope you continue to succeed.
  9. Like
    roger reacted to DocBauer in Twins Daily 2021 Awards: Pitcher of the Year   
    I've always been a huge fan of Berrios and really miss him. Not going to take this space to comment at all about whether be should have been moved except to say I do understand why be was, and the haul was excellent. While I think there are some very intriguing options out there to "replace" him, maybe even very effectively, I do think there is a segment of the fan base that never fully appreciated how good he is/was and may change their opinion now that he's gone.
    Not sure I can say anything more about Ober that hasn't already been said, or that I haven't already said myself. But all the hard work, adjustments made on the fly during the season, he's just a great story. And I think he's a keeper though I'm uncertain of his ceiling. But what he did isn't just a SSS at this juncture. I'm not that concerned about his HR totals as a] he was a rookie and b] when you keep free passes down, HR and XBH don't hurt you so much. And while his ERA isn't outstanding, without an exact number in front of me I'd bet he's at least a quarter run per below the AL average.
  10. Like
    roger reacted to DocBauer in Projected Arbitration Numbers From MLBTradeRumors   
    Within the confines of the system being what they are, I think the numbers presented seem fair. I am not touching at all on Buxton or Rogers at this point as their are mitigating factors too complicated to deal with at this point. But as to the rest....
    I'd avoid arbitration with Duffey and give him a lower annual number but give him a 2yr deal. He's just been too good, has made adjustments, and just too young to expect the wheels to suddenly fly off.
    Garver is under control for a couple more years, won't cost you much, and will reach FA, probably, too old to demand a huge deal. But he's also too damned good to not keep and split his time between C and DH. I'd do the same as Duffey. Just dismiss the B.S. and lock him to 2yrs.
    Arraez and Thielbar, no issues.
    Gant is a problem for me. Yes he showed flashes as a SP out of necessity once the Twins acquired him. And while he's had limited success as a SP in his career, he seems to have better numbers and value as a quality BP option who can swing in to the rotation when you need him. I'd really like to keep him in that role. It may sound like splitting hairs, but I think $2.5-2.7 makes more sense. I MIGHT even go $3M. Anything more than that just feels like an overpay to me.
    Not the time or place to discuss Astudillo's worth to the team. But IF the Twins have room and decide to protect him, his number hurts nothing and is just fine. (I think he's 50-50 being kept and the Twins would love to re-sign him to a split milb deal but think someone else might give him a better offer).
    IMO, Minaya has a history, a good 2020 at the alternate site, and a quality 2021 that he is probably protected. His salary is a drop in the bucket. Coulombe would be a nice milb re-sign. But there's just no room for him on the 40 man. Same with Refsnyder. I really, really want Refsnyder back on a milb deal for depth, and because I really think he re-invented himself as a hitter, post injury notwithstanding. But again, no room. And he could be quickly passed not only be Celestino, but also Kerrigan and Contreras, though younger.
    The small elephant in the room is Cave. I like Cave. I think he's a gamer and a solid ballplayer. He might even have a solid future. But after injury and 2 poor years, I just don't see a fit for this team going forward. Frankly what the Twins need is a RH version of him in 2018-19. That may come via trade or FA or from within. A FA might cost more. Celestino could jump up. Regardless, it's time to move on.
  11. Like
    roger reacted to DJL44 in Projected Arbitration Numbers From MLBTradeRumors   
    These are the players who would still be underpaid at that cost.
  12. Like
    roger reacted to Parker Hageman in Velocity Is (Still) a Problem for the Minnesota Twins   
    I think the real question you have to ask is if fastballs even matter anymore. 
    Most competitive teams have started to go away from fastballs. The Rays pitchers threw fastballs in just 43% of their mix. Twins were 49% (up from 43% from last year, thanks Joe Ryan). Dodgers, Yankees, Braves and Astros were all also under 50% fastballs thrown.
    The future of this organization is not fastballs. 
     
  13. Like
    roger reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Zoll a finalist for Cubs' GM Job   
    It says quite a bit that after an 89-loss season, other franchises are still trying to lure away Twins executives.
  14. Like
    roger got a reaction from MN_ExPat in Better Late Than Never   
    Many believe they will bring Pineda back, probably on a two year contract.  With Maeda returning late this year and lots of good prospects arriving the next couple years, a Kluber or Thor one year deal may be the perfect fit for a year in which the Twins could surprise.
    Kluber/Thor, Ryan, Pineda, Ober and Dobnak work for me as their opening day 5.  Send Jax and Barnes to St. Paul as early depth before Maeda is ready for the stretch run come August.  Add Winder and a few other prospects later in the year and the starting pitching should compete.  Will the Twins?
  15. Like
    roger got a reaction from glunn in Zoll a finalist for Cubs' GM Job   
    Booooooo.  But probably good for him!
  16. Like
    roger reacted to mikelink45 in Velocity Is (Still) a Problem for the Minnesota Twins   
    I was a Milwaukee Brave fan and my family journeyed to see them for one series every year.  Loved all those great players. 
    You are right - he and Yogi Berra at the Battle of the Bulge.  What a career and what a life.  Without the war he might have won 400, but Koufax and others got their days of fame while he just annually did great.  So consistent that he was overlooked. 
  17. Like
    roger got a reaction from Mark G in Velocity Is (Still) a Problem for the Minnesota Twins   
    A while back I was talking with a former big league pitcher.  When someone else asked about why he was successful without throwing all that hard his response was basically that how hard you threw didn't mean squat.  Rather, you needed to be a pitcher.
    Considering he was an old leftie who I believe won more big league games than any lefty ever, enough said about the subject in mine....err, his opinion.
  18. Like
    roger reacted to Dave The Dastardly in Velocity Is (Still) a Problem for the Minnesota Twins   
    In order of priority isn't location, movement, velocity the old pitching refrain?
  19. Like
    roger reacted to mikelink45 in Velocity Is (Still) a Problem for the Minnesota Twins   
    There are many guys who have succeeded without throwing 95+.   On Baseball Savant I see the speeds of Tyler Rogers, Kyle Hendricks, and Zach Grienke with 4 seam speeds well below 90, yet they are very successful.   What I see at the top is an amazing change in velocity from fastball to curve - DeGrom 99.2 to 83.3,, Cole 97.7 -  83.4.    
    To my amazement Griffin Jax had and average 4 seamer at 92.6 and curveball at 79.9 - which should be really good.   Is that what the team sees in him?  John Gant has 92 - 74.7.   Michael Pineda had a 90.6 4 seam and no curve ball, but an 81.2 slider.   Bailey Ober was 92.3 with a 75 mph curveball.    Joe Ryan is the slowest of all these pitchers - 91.2 and had 72.7 curveball for contrast.  Lots of stats, but the results say Pineda Ryan  and Ober were our top pitchers last year.
  20. Like
    roger got a reaction from Minny505 in Better Late Than Never   
    Many believe they will bring Pineda back, probably on a two year contract.  With Maeda returning late this year and lots of good prospects arriving the next couple years, a Kluber or Thor one year deal may be the perfect fit for a year in which the Twins could surprise.
    Kluber/Thor, Ryan, Pineda, Ober and Dobnak work for me as their opening day 5.  Send Jax and Barnes to St. Paul as early depth before Maeda is ready for the stretch run come August.  Add Winder and a few other prospects later in the year and the starting pitching should compete.  Will the Twins?
  21. Like
    roger reacted to mikelink45 in Velocity Is (Still) a Problem for the Minnesota Twins   
    Must be Warren Spahn - greatest left hander ever, Milwaukee Brave and my favorite, but never got ranked the best, just won 20 games in each of 13 seasons.  If it was you were a lucky guy.
     
  22. Like
    roger got a reaction from Aerodeliria in Better Late Than Never   
    Many believe they will bring Pineda back, probably on a two year contract.  With Maeda returning late this year and lots of good prospects arriving the next couple years, a Kluber or Thor one year deal may be the perfect fit for a year in which the Twins could surprise.
    Kluber/Thor, Ryan, Pineda, Ober and Dobnak work for me as their opening day 5.  Send Jax and Barnes to St. Paul as early depth before Maeda is ready for the stretch run come August.  Add Winder and a few other prospects later in the year and the starting pitching should compete.  Will the Twins?
  23. Like
    roger got a reaction from Twins33 in Better Late Than Never   
    Interesting facts, Johnny.  MSP is a mid-market, so having the 17th biggest payroll is about where they could be expected to spend.  Now finishing last in what arguably was the worst division in baseball says there were reasons other than payroll for their failure.
  24. Like
    roger reacted to Vanimal46 in Who Can the Twins Deal?   
    Depends if teams value his ability to not strikeout and batting average. MLB as a whole finished at .244 for the season. .245 last year. Haven’t seen times like this since year of the pitcher in 1968. Contact first hitters could be the new market inefficiency! 
  25. Like
    roger reacted to DocBauer in Who Can the Twins Deal?   
    Huge ^5 to the posts above I liked! Very good takes, even if I don't agree 100%. 
    I agree Donaldson should have been included in the OP. He can't be ignored as a trade piece due to depth and replacement options. His biggest problems as a trade option are obvious and we all know them; age, injury and salary. I am and have always been OK with moving him if the right deal, presents itself. But there is also the idea of how little he may bring back prospect wise and salary relief wise vs being a good ballplayer and veteran presence and "red ass" who could bring a little fire to the team. It's not just about finding room for Miranda and others to play. A lot of times these things just work out over a full season. We've seen this over and again. But having too much talent is NOT a bad thing! That's when your manager FINDS ways to get guys in the lineup. Which is easier without a fixture at DH,  which I believe will be the case in 2022. Please trade Donaldson IF IT MAKES SENSE for what you gain vs what you lose. 
    So why do I start with Donaldson? Because keeping him or moving him affects the rest of the roster and the others proposed here in the OP.
    A healthy Kepler is way better than what we saw in 2021. Unless someone blows us away, you are selling low. He is a premium RF defensively and a solid CF with power who just needs to sit more against LH pitching. Despite my belief in Kirilloff, Larnach and Celestino, all other OF options are solid journeyman or prospects a year away.
    Garver is a good, not great, solid catcher who is one of the best offensive catchers in the game. He needs to catch 50-60% of the games and spend time at DH and maybe even a little 1B to keep his bat in the lineup. I think Jeffers has a bright future, but I'm not ready to give him the #1 spot right now and move Garver. As has been pointed out by others in various threads, you don't necessarily get better by trading someone who is amongst the best at his position.
    Arraez may be the best pure hitter and clutch hitter and OB hitter on the team. And with a team of talented producers with BIG TIME power you'd want to trade the BEST pure hitter, contact hitter, and OB guy? He's only 24yo and has basically 2yrs at MLB. He's OK defensively at 3 positions and can also DH. Again, why does a DH have to be ONE GUY? He will only get better, I propose, defensively with experience. He fills a needed spot in the lineup as something different than a 3 outcome player.
    The Sano debate has been ongoing for a few years now. You're either done with him, or, you recognize his career OPS and how dangerous he is as a streaky producer but would just love to see him as a lower fixture in the lineup as a 1B/DH and "emergency" 3B and want to hold on to him for at least one more year because he can carry a team at times.
    Look, I am NOT opposed to making trades to re-tool the roster. Not at all! I just don't feel moving Kepler or Garver or Arraez at this time makes roster and production sense.  I think those moves potential hurt as much as they help. I'm OK with moving Donaldson and Sano if it makes sense.
    I think the FO WILL make some FA moves. I think they WILL make some trades. But when you make trades, you have to give up something to get something! But I'm tired of the Twins traded Gil, or Yanoa, both low A prospects to get something they thought could help the team. Doesn't every team, even the best and smartest teams, still make deals of prospects in hope of augmenting their roster?
    I just keep reflecting on the Odorizzi and Maeda trades. Can this FO do it a 3rd time? They need to find a quality veteran and spend the $ to lead this team and Stoman is the obvious choice. But isn't there enough milb depth to make a similar move without depleting the ML roster?
     
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