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roger

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  1. Like
    roger got a reaction from bighat in Is there a Catching issue?   
    Do we have a catching problem?  Yes.
    How do we fix it?  Not a clue, that’s what the guys making the big bucks in the FO are paid to do.  Will it get fixed?  Probably not till the offseason, if then.
    And let’s remember that prior to this weekend Jeffers hadn’t thrown anybody out and the first one was safe till he overslid second base.
  2. Like
    roger reacted to ashbury in Is there a Catching issue?   
    If you bring up Kirilloff and Godoy, who else do you send down besides Jeffers?
    I'm always willing to overlook a slow start if it gets corrected, but Jeffers has combined that with another downward trend, and this looks serious enough to merit the demotion. 
    Have I mentioned that I was very skeptical about the trades of Garver and Rortvedt for exactly this reason?  With hindsight we can see that Rortvedt is injured and Garver is DH'ing more than he's catching, but without the trades perhaps things play out differently, and we could send down to AAA either of the young catchers who needed it the most.  I didn't think we had an oversupply of catching at the time - a veteran and two youngsters with plenty of minor league options seemed about optimal to me.  Oh well, water under the bridge - and acquiring good catching now is tough.
  3. Like
    roger reacted to chpettit19 in Kirilloff as trade bait?   
    When healthy last year Kirilloff looked great. He's a possible elite bat who looked like he was well on his way when he was healthy. If the team medical people are telling you his wrist is a gigantic question mark for his entire career you can certainly think about trading him now, but if that's not the case I'm not trading a bat like his for a year or 2 of a pitcher.
  4. Like
    roger reacted to gunnarthor in Kirilloff as trade bait?   
    Kiriloff for either A's pitcher would be an overpay considering the years of control left. 
  5. Like
    roger reacted to yeahyabetcha in Kirilloff as trade bait?   
    I wouldn’t make that trade, but I consider Kiriloff pretty much untouchable.
  6. Like
    roger reacted to Karbo in Kirilloff as trade bait?   
    It depends on who else they would include IMO. The only guy I see as a no trade guy at this point is Buxton. It all depends on the return. Hopefully better than what they did with the Yankees.
  7. Like
    roger got a reaction from mikelink45 in strike outs and innings pitched by starters   
    Thank you for bringing the greatest leftie of all time into this conversation.  Remember a banquet maybe 20 years ago when a kid asked him how hard he threw.  His somewhat cranky response was that how hard you throw makes zero difference if you can put all of your pitches where you want, when you want.  Loved that rotation of Spahn, Burdette, Buhl and Conley.
  8. Like
    roger got a reaction from Ted Schwerzler in 2022 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects   
    Agree with everything you said, Doc.  Would add that after seeing lots of his starts at Wichita, I would rank Winder as the top pitching prospect.
  9. Like
    roger reacted to wsnydes in A Trend With Twins First Basemen   
    That's certainly where he belongs, 1B.  That Sano guy needs to get out of the way though.
  10. Like
    roger reacted to h2oface in A Trend With Twins First Basemen   
    Kirilloff, unlike Hrbek, Morneau, and Mauer, throws left-handed, too. His predecessors all batted left-handed, but threw right-handed. Some believe that wearing the glove on the right hand at first make the best fielding first basemen, and it is an inherent defensive advantage. Maybe we will find out.
  11. Like
    roger got a reaction from DocBauer in 2022 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects   
    Couldn't watch the Twins, Doc, so I got the MiLB package.  Watched a lot of the Wind Surge games, especially when both Winder and Balazovic were starting.  Must say that when Balazovic was in his stretch of what was it, five games, without allowing a run he looked like what you expect an ACE to look like.  Then for whatever reason he seemed to lose his command a bit and wasn't as dominant.  While there, Winder was nearly as dominant as Balazovic at his best for the entire time he was there.  So I can see either developing into that long sought after ACE, knowing there aren't any guarantees that either will.
  12. Like
    roger reacted to DocBauer in 2022 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects   
    And he might be. There's nothing to say he isn't the best, or can't be the best. As I stated, and have before, ACES develop over time, you very, very seldom just draft one. Heck, this time next year SWR or Sands could looke better than everyone. No way to know. 
    You've actually watched Winder, so I defer to your opinion and assessment. I guess I lump Balazovic, Winder and Duran together, IMO, as equals. I'm really excited for all 3 to be healthy and get a full season in. Unfortunately, I think Duran is now a little further behind at the moment.
  13. Like
    roger got a reaction from DocBauer in 2022 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects   
    Agree with everything you said, Doc.  Would add that after seeing lots of his starts at Wichita, I would rank Winder as the top pitching prospect.
  14. Like
    roger reacted to DocBauer in 2022 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects   
    I know it's really easy to get carried away with prospect rankings and optimism of the players listed there. Look no further than the recent OP about the top 2018 list which contains a few who didn't make it, some with questions, at least one traded, etc. But each "list" should be addressed of its own accord. And I'm really excited about this list, despite some usual caveats. Because this is fun, and because I'm optimistic, and because we don't have anything ML related to talk about, we'll, here I go.
    SANDS is sort of a "poster child" for how this FO sees a path to pitching development. Right or wrong only time will tell, but they believe that unless a pitcher lands in your lap right off the top, there are a lot of guys with real potential to be developed past the first couple of picks. Sands seems to make their ideas valid, as have a couple lower selections thus far. I think he's close and is forgotten about by some. I might have ranked him higher. 
    WALLNER is a better version of Rooker, IMO. Reportedly, he's already a better OF defensively. That's not a knock on Rooker who still has a chance, I just think he's a better, more well rounded version. I don't expect a big BA, but time will tell. I liked what he did in his limited AFL.
    MILLER, fair or not, reminds me of JJ Hardy. A guy who may not have any single skill that is outstanding, but the ability to do everything well. He's a LONG WAY away, but can't wait to see what he does. Draft status and potential, I'm OK with him here.
    ENLOW shouldn't be penalized for his surgery. The ceiling remains high and he's still young. Hopefully he gets a few IP at the end of 2022 to get ready.
    WINDER should be a couple spots higher, IMO, but it's a testament to current depth that he's here. Decades of watching the draft, prospect lists, and MLB in general has taught me that unless you have the #1 pick in a year where a Clemmons or a Strasburg falls in your lucky lap, you NEVER draft an ACE. You draft and develop arms and their potential. And despite all the coaching you can give, an ACE is someone who also learns and develops on their own. Winder has front of the rotation potential. It may take a couple of years to reach his potential, but I think he pitches for the Twins in 2022. I think he has a good ceiling.
    CAVACO wasn't a mistake pick, but I wouldn't rank him this high. He is young, a late bloomer with trajectory when drafted, and has all the tools in the world. And like everyone else, he missed a full season. But I still need to see a little more from him to rank him this high. BUT, I would remind readers that he got off to a solid start in 2021 and was amongst the best bats/producers for a poor offensive Ft Myers team before an injury slowed him down. It's all up to him. The talent is there. I would be surprised if he doesn't start 2022 in low A despite some young options behind him. But would be pleased and not surprised if his talent took over and he hit A+ quickly.
    PETTY, to me, was an absolute gift. I know HS arms are the biggest guess/risk/reward possibilities for a 1st round selection. But I don't recall many times when I've seen a HS pitcher with an arm who throws high 90's consistently and touches 100 with a quality slider and a change that needs work but was still ranked a 50 on the scout scale. Hey, he's young and has a lot to show and work on and improve. He's a long way away. But to slide to the 20's confuses me unless it's because he's not 6' 2"+ and already over 200lbs and played in a northern climate for the most part. LMAO when I read a comment elsewhere that he projects as a BP arm when he's only 18yo and has so much ahead of him.
    CANTERINO just needs the baseball gods to give him health for 2022. So much for the Twins not drafting a pitcher high. They babied him his 1st season because of his IP in college. Makes sense. He was as advertised in his brief 2019. And he was again in his short 2021 after missing 2020. I believe his plan was to jump to AA quickly before injury happened. A curse for many arms, not just the Twins. His stuff is electric,though needing refinement. Some say his delivery screams BP. He says he's had the same delivery for years and feels comfortable with it. IDK! But if he's healthy and ready to go, he needs to be at Wichita from day one. He could be anywhere from a #1-2 SP to the next Nathan if starting just doesn't work out. 
    SWR has been regarded as a top 100 prospect for a couple of years now. He was not only young for AA but had his whole season disrupted by the Olympic experience. Just give the kid a chance to settle in. The stuff plays. I wouldn't be surprised if he appears in 2022 at some point.
    DURAN.......just be healthy. STOP the "let's just put him in the pen" conversation. I don't care if he sits in ST Paul for the whole year! Just let him stretch out, build innings, work on his stuff, and let him develop. Don't waste an opportunity to develop a potentially great arm.
    RYAN...just keep doing what you're doing kid. Keep the bulldog in you but don't be stubborn. Keep listening and learning.
    MIRANDA just needs opportunity. He is not a flash. He is a high draft choice who everyone has just been waiting to put it together. He has now. He was a high pick with potential, not some flier. Either make room for him or make him the 1st guy up when there is an opening. And depending on trades  or injury, he could make the opening day roster. Like I said in another OP, he COULD see time at LF or 1B depending on final roster construction. 
    BALAZOVIC is everything I said about Winder. The stuff and the build and everything you want. But what you want is just a little more time to put it together. 
    MARTIN is PROBABLY a stud LF/CF who can also play in the infield to follow the example the versatility of the Dogers that I feel the FO is looking at. But I'd keep playing him at SS for as long as I can. I mean, what's the worst that can happen? He suddenly turns out to be an optio there or he can at least cover that spot in addition to maye 2B/3B. 
    LEWIS IS  a lightening rod of sorts.  He has EERYTHING athletically to be a decent to good SS. When you watch him, you see great plays that few can make and you see smoothness, and his potential. We just need to see it daily. But it takes time. He's lost a lot of time, unfortunately. And he's NOT going to jump to the ML level without a little time to get his legs underneath him, literally, for defense AND offense,  despite his AFL MVP and reports about his 2020 play at the alternative site. This kid just might have the IT factor. Let's allow a tiny bit of time, OK?
    Pissed about the FO and things we don't have a clue about for2022 yet, just look at this list and get excited. 
     
  15. Like
    roger got a reaction from chpettit19 in Post Lock out Moves: Potential Twins Trades   
    Why is everyone assuming there will be a salary floor?  Sure, it has been mentioned.  But if there is a hard floor, you know the owners are going to insist on some type of cap other than the current tax.  Do you really think the players will accept anything resembling a hard cap?  Although I could be 100% wrong, I don't see that happening in this negotiation.  
  16. Like
    roger reacted to Rosterman in 40 Man Roster and the Rule 5 Draft   
    Sometimes we go about this the wrong way. 
     
    When forced to add someone to the 40-man, you have to take someone off.
     
    Happily we have three that will leave soon: Simmons, Pineda, Colome.
     
    Now at 39.
     
    When adding Rule 5 guys to the roster, you have every hope they will play in 2022. Or, because of their signing status, they are too precious and you need to keep them. Royce Lewis is one such, high ranking, expensive...but with two wasted seasons under his belt. You gotta keep him. Why?
     
    The teams you most fear are those that are in rebuild and won't mind carrying a low-level guy for a whole season on their major league roster. The Twins did it with Santana. The Tigers did it with Baddoo. Baddoo, although a decent prospect, was still a High-A ball player. He was behind a wealth of names like Cave, Wade, Larnach, Celestino, Kirilloff for sure. That he played for the Tigers was unheard of in the minds of too many. But he did. The gamble you take.
     
    The Twins also will keep Miranda. He should be on the team in 2022 for sure, in some capacity.
     
    Now it gets iffy. You need to protect Winder, as he is close. Sands is also very close. Enlow is close to being close, just needs the works and innings. All three would be smart picks by any team to stash in the bullpen. By putting them on your 40-man, the Twins have the luxury of them all working as rotation arms at AAA ball and joining Duran and Balazovic and Strotman as possible future rotation arms for the Twins. That's thee new arms to go with three old ones, none that you would expect to break camp for the Twins unless they were in rebuild mode compared to being competitive.
     
    Anyways, now at 44 names on the roster.
     
    Two interesting pitching names, both bullpen arms and both converted hitters: Fundeburk and Gore. Gore might be closer and the Twins didn't advance him to AAA, so he may get bypassed. Unless Fundeburk is TOTAL lights out in AFL ball, he should also fall under the radar of other teams. I would take the chance to NOT add them.
     
    Palacios is an interesting choice. I would hope I could convince him to return on a minor league contract for some looks at AAA ball. I would have to choose between him or Gordon if I was going to make a 40-man add. I would keep Gordon at this point, especially with Lewis in the wings, and the potential of Martin, as well as Miranda.
     
    I worry that we will lose Trey Cabbage to free agency. Do we add him to the 40-man?
     
    Wander Javier is a 40-man add only because of the investment. Another team can grab him and thumb their nose that the Twins let a million-dollar kid walk away. This is a tough call, but I don't see someone grabbing him this season. He doesn't really look much better than last season, when he passed thru the Rule 5.
     
    So, we are at 44. We really only need to drop four players, then. Again, you drop players as you add them. At this point, not really a need for a 40-man spot. If you think you are going to do a Rule 5, then you make a spot now (or later, before the draft). If you sign a free agent, you drop a corresponding position player. That's the way to play.
     
    But we still need to drop four. 
     
    Barnes and Thorpe and Smeltzer are left-handed and rotation possible arms. They should be keepers.
     
    Thielbar and Coulombe are left-handed relief pitchers, they can also be kept for the moment, to join Rogers and Moran.
     
    That means we have Garza, Stashak, Gant and Dobnak on the bubble. Dobnak will stay because of his contract, but he could be jettisoned to the minors and probably not claimed because of his contract. Stashak is a probable because we don't know where he sits in injury land. If Jax is claimed, good for him getting a job opportunity elsewhere. If the Twins designate him, hopefully resign him for depth. Garza is interesting. He would compete with any minor league free agent signings, and I assume the front office will do a number of those.
     
    We are going to easily get to 44, no doubt about that. Smeltzer, Thorpe and Stashak may be too injury prone to worry about NOT losing, so they could be lost. None contributed to the Twins in 2021. 
     
    On the offensive front we have a gaggle of outfielders: Cave, Garlick, Refsnyder, Rooker. Assuming Larnach is in the real mix, Celestino is more valuable than any of the aforementioned names, and you have Arraez/Gordon in the mix, Kirilloff in left, and Miranda in play somewhere...you can jettison all four. I would probably keep the home-grown and cheap Rooker at this point. But he would be removable if you signed anther outfielder or a designated hitter.
     
    So, if we remove Cave, Garlick and Refsnyder, we only have to cut one of the many pitchers mentioned above, for the moment.
     
    And we still have Willians Astudillo on the roster.
     
    In the end, add: Lewis, Winder, Sands, Enlow, Miranda.
     
    Lose: Cave, Garlick, Refsnyder and one of Smeltzer/Thorpe/Stashak.
     
    We still keep Astudillo, Rooker, Coulombe, Thielbar, Garza, Jax, Barnes and two of Smeltzer/Thorpe/Stashak. Hey, and we also keep Gant, who MAY BE arbitration too expensive. But what is $4 mil these days? That's still ten guys - TEN GUYS - that can be removed for someone better!
     
    I don't see Gore or Fundeburk or Javier or Palacios or Cabbage playing in the majors in 2022 fer sure, and especially don't see another team gambling to start the season with any of them on the roster for the first few months.
  17. Like
    roger reacted to jun in Pineda's return for 2022? What is his contract like?   
    If you don't care about winning, you can certainly let Pineda walk. I don't believe Twins can sign or trade for multiple starters who are A LOT better than Pineda. Maybe that could happen in your dream.
  18. Like
    roger reacted to HrbieFan in Pineda's return for 2022? What is his contract like?   
    When healthy, Big Mike is more than a #3. While he isn't an ace, he can go toe to toe with almost anyone. Highly doubt we sign a top tier free agent, so I'd be fine with Big Mike being our opening day pitcher next year.
  19. Like
    roger reacted to Vanimal46 in Pineda's return for 2022? What is his contract like?   
    I like Big Mike. The Twins seem to like him, and he seems to like it here. I would welcome him back because we need consistency and stability in the rotation. He’ll rarely give you 7-8 strong innings, but he almost always gives you 5-6 good innings each outing. I think you hit the nail on the head with the contract proposal. 2/$22 with incentives based on IP. Sign me up. 
  20. Like
    roger reacted to Greglw3 in Settling in at Shortstop   
    I'll put my money on Eddie Rosario every time. He’s infinitely better than Jake Cave and Trevor Larnach combined this year. Just making the point that those who are Eddie detractors can’t depend on him staying down too long. He did a lot of special things for the Twins including 15 triples one year, a high ROY ranking and 2 time all star plus the 32 HR and 109 RBIs which lead the team over Nelson Cruz. But the Twins plod on with Jake Cave hitting .185.
    Eddie has a career OPS+ of 108, solidly above average. Unlikely Twins can reverse their mistake because the Braves will want to re-sign him. Just one of a multitude of reasons that I gave Falvey and Levine and F.
  21. Like
    roger reacted to Doctor Gast in Settling in at Shortstop   
    MIA is loaded with quality starting pitching. I agree with the saying you can never have too much starting pitching but MIA seems not able to get it done with just that. Hopefully the Twins have what MIA needs to be able to wrangle one of those pitchers away from them. Mia also has some good pitching prospects coming up
  22. Like
    roger reacted to TopGunn#22 in Settling in at Shortstop   
    This will be a hot topic of conversation throughout the off season.  For a while I have felt that Lewis would end up in the OF and not at SS.  Martin has the potential to help at SS but his ability to play other positions makes him more of a Chris Taylor type...in the lineup nearly every day, but deployed all over the field.  With the current logjam of infielders (Polanco, Arraez, Gordon, Miranda, Martin, Palacios and possibly Lewis)  I see the Twins trading Arraez in a package for starting pitching.  Arraez still has pretty solid trade value and we have a glut of talent coming up that I feel makes him expendable (plus Rocco refuses to make him our leadoff guy so why not trade him for pitching).  Simmons will probably be a better hitter next year.  How much better ?  Guys like Story and Baez are tempting because they are VERY GOOD fielders who have some POP.  The top off season priority is signing Buxton to a long term deal.  The second priority is signing/trading for 2-3 SP's who are GOOD (not Happ or Shoemaker types).  If Pineda is brought back on a reasonable deal the Twins have #3---#5 set (Pineda, Ryan, Ober).  With Dobnak there is some depth and then they track Balazovic and others to see if they're ready.  That means they need to sign a FA (Ray, Rodon, Gausman, Stroman etc...) and TRADE for one SP ( an Alcantara type---young and talented and who will take some heavy prospect value...Jeffers and Larnach as an example).  THEN they have to figure out what their plan is at SS.  A big splash like Story or Baez?  Or a stop gap like DeJong (great suggestion) or Iglesias, Galvis etc...   The Twins were a MESS this year.  But the A.L. Central is WIDE OPEN.  The White Sox are not a LOCK to repeat.  The Twins FO has an opportunity to retool this roster in a strategic and effective fashion.  Their jobs depend on it.
  23. Like
    roger reacted to Mark G in Settling in at Shortstop   
    You hit it on the head not only with Simmons, but with Austidillo, and Jeffers as well.  Anyone who watches Austidillo and sees him swing out of his helmet and on to his knees, can see he is thinking power all the way all the time.  And the one thing that impressed me the most when Jeffers first came up last year is how he would square up on the ball and hit line drives; now he is doing slightly more of an upper angle and, again, looking for power numbers, and not squaring up as often as he is capable of.  Austidillo puts it in play 94% of his at bats, and Jeffers can do much better in that area if they both would just use their natural talents.  Simmons will do better, somewhere, as well.  If we would let them be themselves, they could all do better here and solve a lot of our holes (and not cost too much; did I mention we need money for pitching?).  Just my extremely humble opinion.  
  24. Like
    roger reacted to Doctor Gast in Settling in at Shortstop   
    I'm with you Mark. There's plenty of reasons why the Twins did soooo bad this season and Simmons isn't one of them. If Polanco remained at SS like so many wanted, he'd continued his downward spiral and we'd have totally  tanked along with Polanco, possibly w/o return. The problem w/ Simmon's  bat is the importance the Twins put on HRs. When he hit those early HRs it went to his head and he over swung on everything. That plus the long pause he looked terrible. The focus needs to be is to stay inside yourself, who you are, not who you aren't. You can't look only at errors, you need to look at range. The old infield bled to death with grounders always fining their way through. Going back to the old infield is not an option.
  25. Like
    roger reacted to Mark G in Settling in at Shortstop   
    I realize I am still a minority on this subject, but since I first started truly following the game in the mid '60's, and from what I hear and read decades before that, teams prioritized defense at SS and catcher.  Corner infielders, corner outfielders, and sometimes 2nd or center would produce the pop; the two most demanding positions were considered SS and catcher and offense wasn't a first priority.  Teams would have .180 and .190 hitters at these positions while their pitchers hit as well.  In the '60's the Twins had 2 or 3 pretty good hitting pitchers I used to see pinch hit for position players in late or extra innings, the hitters were not as good but played the field, and the pitchers wouldn't have it any other way.  Now, in the AL, we have hitters who do nothing but, so teams are even more capable of keeping the gloves they need.  The concept that Simmons has hurt the team is bizarre to me.  A .220 hitting exceptional glove, and yes, he is still an exceptional glove, is more than acceptable on a team that is what?  2nd in the league in home nuns and middle of the pack in almost all other offensive categories?  If we had a manager who knew anything about manufacturing runs.......arrgg, don't get me started.   The only problem I have ever seen with Simmons is his price tag.  He needs to come down, and he will after this season, but an affordable Simmons is better than moving Polanco OR taking a flyer on an unproven rookie.  The infield needs stability, and constant moving parts are killing us.  Keep this group together, and everyone will be more comfortable with each other.  And Simmons will pick up the pace; his career record suggests this year was the anomaly, not the norm.  (although I might spell Sano on the field a little more often)  
    Don't get me wrong, if we can pick up a top tier SS on the open market, by all means.  But the kind of money I see bantered about day in and day out being spent on payroll, isn't as realistic as people would like to believe after 2 straight years of huge losses, as well as a new CBA looming.  Put the money into pitching, and keep the gloves behind them and where they belong, not moving around the field like musical chairs.  We have enough talent to cover the flaws as we stand today; keep moving the parts and the crap shoot continues.  Oh, and did I say we should put our money into pitching?  If not, we should put our money into pitching.  
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