roger

A good exercise.
I think you're maybe a little high on the innings. In his five full seasons (i.e., not 2020), he's averaged 139 innings. Coming off TJS, I'll suggest 125 as a target. Maybe skip his spot in the rotation a time or two, and because of the surgery, he may have the shortest starts on average, so 25 starts x 5 innings feels about right. 
ERA is maybe a bit high. His career is 3.70 and his highest is 4.10. TJS guys often have days when they are not sharp, but it makes sense to try letting them pitch through some things. I think there will be many days when he's on his career average of 3.70, but throw in a few of the clunkers and it's maybe pushing 4.00. 
I'll take 125 innings of 4.00 or a little better from the No. 5 guy. 

Maeda is a weird one for me. Obviously I would prioritize his health before any preformence. If he can stay healthy, he'll be a decent 4-5 guy at the least. I am not, however, expecting him to return to his 2020 form, although it wouldn't completely shock me. We have seen people like Justin Verlander come back even stronger from Tommy John, so I wouldn't rule him out to be a top of the rotation guy. 
So, expectations? 
1. Stay healthy. Pitch 150 innings 
2. Have an ERA under 4.20
I think that's all you can hope for from a player returning from that devestating injury. 
Thanks for your feedback!

Excellent analysis @Harrison Smith.  Thanks for pulling this together.
What are your expectations for Maeda given his long layoff due to injury?

Another great blog, Harrison! I think just the fact that they'll have a normal ST will help a lot  in the # of total innings pitched & ERA. What I've heard Ryan & Lopez are working on new pitches (Central AL Division will also improve his #s). 
IMO what really helps against injuries, # of total innings pitched & ERA, is management. The focus shouldn't be let's see how far we stretch out our SPs. But let's profile our pitchers & pitch them inside those perimeters. Let's say for example we have a SP who profiles at 6 innings (some games early less & later games more). After each game he feels good & is able bounce back quickly for his next start. He is able to maintain his quality innings & health. He continue to feel good & is able starts 32 games, 32 X 6 = 192 innings, not bad. & hopefully if he's properly managed he's ready to pitch well going into the post season. Even if we have a pitcher going 5 innings/ game & feels good afterwards. He's able to maintain his arm healthy & pitch 32 games, that's 5 X 32 = 160 total innings that's much more than the total of our best pitcher under our present philosophy. Let me repeat one more time, our focus shouldn't be let's see how far we can stretch out of each SP each game but let keep our pitchers inside their profile to maintain their health & quality innings. Strength conditioning is also very important.
Lopez hadn't pitched many innings in any of his previous seasons. 111 was by far the most & he didn't pitch very well. So it's reasonable that he'd tired well before the season's end & tail off. With the 180 inning season under his belt & hopefully some good strength conditioning, he'll easily surpass last year.
 

I would add Jorge Lopez to the list.  Since Rocco will not make Duran the teams "closer,"  instead choosing to use him in high leverage situations as needed, that means Jorge Lopez will be getting plenty of closing opportunities.  If he's "Jorge, the Baltimore Oriole" pitcher from the first half of last season he will have a much larger impact than Ober or Alcala (who are still good pitchers to list).  If he's "Jorge the second half of the season Twins pitcher"  we will have issues once again at the end of games.  He's a key member of our bullpen and MUST have a good season to provide stability and certainty in the back end.  

I for 1 would think Mahle should go well over your IP. I think he is capable of 170+ innings, if allowed too.

Following the 4 game Toronto series and Thursday's concert, they are now at 22,520.  Should they continue to be in a pennant race, that will likely go up.  

Following the 4 game Toronto series and Thursday's concert, they are now at 22,520.  Should they continue to be in a pennant race, that will likely go up.  

Garlick is not helping the Twins.
The Twins need pitching.  A month ago, I might have said BULLPEN pitching.  Now, I'll just say pitching.
We saw Sanó play in St. Paul earlier last week.  Sanó is not, by a long shot, the Twins' biggest problem.  He smashed 2 HR in the game we saw, and hit 2 more balls on the ground in the game we saw.  No K's.
Maybe the FO needs to get their eyes off the computer and watch the players on the field.  JUST MAYBE.
 
 
 

I had this long, rather esoteric response filled with wisdom and humor. Alas, you just summarized every approach to a comment I may have had.
Nicely done.

Sano is at AAA ,,, spend the remainder of the month there , 
Get him hitting and fielding better and trade him to a team that needs a dh before Aug 2nd for a bucket of balls or even a dollar would do it  , that is his value ....
We are clicking on offense that we don't need him mudding up the offense with strikeouts and no production ....  
If he goes somewhere else for a change of scenery and attitude adjustment and produces  , well good for him  ,,,
we just don't need another major leaguer named rob deer ,,, 

If the team finishes poorly up to the all star break, I would just leave the team as is and ride it out the remainder of the season.  This season and team is not worth sending away any more prospects.  This is an average team, next year, with a balanced schedule, we will see that this is a 75-80 win team once Correa opts out.

Do we have a catching problem?  Yes.
How do we fix it?  Not a clue, that’s what the guys making the big bucks in the FO are paid to do.  Will it get fixed?  Probably not till the offseason, if then.
And let’s remember that prior to this weekend Jeffers hadn’t thrown anybody out and the first one was safe till he overslid second base.

If you bring up Kirilloff and Godoy, who else do you send down besides Jeffers?
I'm always willing to overlook a slow start if it gets corrected, but Jeffers has combined that with another downward trend, and this looks serious enough to merit the demotion. 
Have I mentioned that I was very skeptical about the trades of Garver and Rortvedt for exactly this reason?  With hindsight we can see that Rortvedt is injured and Garver is DH'ing more than he's catching, but without the trades perhaps things play out differently, and we could send down to AAA either of the young catchers who needed it the most.  I didn't think we had an oversupply of catching at the time - a veteran and two youngsters with plenty of minor league options seemed about optimal to me.  Oh well, water under the bridge - and acquiring good catching now is tough.

When healthy last year Kirilloff looked great. He's a possible elite bat who looked like he was well on his way when he was healthy. If the team medical people are telling you his wrist is a gigantic question mark for his entire career you can certainly think about trading him now, but if that's not the case I'm not trading a bat like his for a year or 2 of a pitcher.

Kiriloff for either A's pitcher would be an overpay considering the years of control left. 

I wouldn’t make that trade, but I consider Kiriloff pretty much untouchable.

It depends on who else they would include IMO. The only guy I see as a no trade guy at this point is Buxton. It all depends on the return. Hopefully better than what they did with the Yankees.

Thank you for bringing the greatest leftie of all time into this conversation.  Remember a banquet maybe 20 years ago when a kid asked him how hard he threw.  His somewhat cranky response was that how hard you throw makes zero difference if you can put all of your pitches where you want, when you want.  Loved that rotation of Spahn, Burdette, Buhl and Conley.

Agree with everything you said, Doc.  Would add that after seeing lots of his starts at Wichita, I would rank Winder as the top pitching prospect.

That's certainly where he belongs, 1B.  That Sano guy needs to get out of the way though.

Kirilloff, unlike Hrbek, Morneau, and Mauer, throws left-handed, too. His predecessors all batted left-handed, but threw right-handed. Some believe that wearing the glove on the right hand at first make the best fielding first basemen, and it is an inherent defensive advantage. Maybe we will find out.

Couldn't watch the Twins, Doc, so I got the MiLB package.  Watched a lot of the Wind Surge games, especially when both Winder and Balazovic were starting.  Must say that when Balazovic was in his stretch of what was it, five games, without allowing a run he looked like what you expect an ACE to look like.  Then for whatever reason he seemed to lose his command a bit and wasn't as dominant.  While there, Winder was nearly as dominant as Balazovic at his best for the entire time he was there.  So I can see either developing into that long sought after ACE, knowing there aren't any guarantees that either will.

And he might be. There's nothing to say he isn't the best, or can't be the best. As I stated, and have before, ACES develop over time, you very, very seldom just draft one. Heck, this time next year SWR or Sands could looke better than everyone. No way to know. 
You've actually watched Winder, so I defer to your opinion and assessment. I guess I lump Balazovic, Winder and Duran together, IMO, as equals. I'm really excited for all 3 to be healthy and get a full season in. Unfortunately, I think Duran is now a little further behind at the moment.

Agree with everything you said, Doc.  Would add that after seeing lots of his starts at Wichita, I would rank Winder as the top pitching prospect.