roger reacted to Rosterman in 40 Man Roster and the Rule 5 Draft
Sometimes we go about this the wrong way.
When forced to add someone to the 40-man, you have to take someone off.
Happily we have three that will leave soon: Simmons, Pineda, Colome.
Now at 39.
When adding Rule 5 guys to the roster, you have every hope they will play in 2022. Or, because of their signing status, they are too precious and you need to keep them. Royce Lewis is one such, high ranking, expensive...but with two wasted seasons under his belt. You gotta keep him. Why?
The teams you most fear are those that are in rebuild and won't mind carrying a low-level guy for a whole season on their major league roster. The Twins did it with Santana. The Tigers did it with Baddoo. Baddoo, although a decent prospect, was still a High-A ball player. He was behind a wealth of names like Cave, Wade, Larnach, Celestino, Kirilloff for sure. That he played for the Tigers was unheard of in the minds of too many. But he did. The gamble you take.
The Twins also will keep Miranda. He should be on the team in 2022 for sure, in some capacity.
Now it gets iffy. You need to protect Winder, as he is close. Sands is also very close. Enlow is close to being close, just needs the works and innings. All three would be smart picks by any team to stash in the bullpen. By putting them on your 40-man, the Twins have the luxury of them all working as rotation arms at AAA ball and joining Duran and Balazovic and Strotman as possible future rotation arms for the Twins. That's thee new arms to go with three old ones, none that you would expect to break camp for the Twins unless they were in rebuild mode compared to being competitive.
Anyways, now at 44 names on the roster.
Two interesting pitching names, both bullpen arms and both converted hitters: Fundeburk and Gore. Gore might be closer and the Twins didn't advance him to AAA, so he may get bypassed. Unless Fundeburk is TOTAL lights out in AFL ball, he should also fall under the radar of other teams. I would take the chance to NOT add them.
Palacios is an interesting choice. I would hope I could convince him to return on a minor league contract for some looks at AAA ball. I would have to choose between him or Gordon if I was going to make a 40-man add. I would keep Gordon at this point, especially with Lewis in the wings, and the potential of Martin, as well as Miranda.
I worry that we will lose Trey Cabbage to free agency. Do we add him to the 40-man?
Wander Javier is a 40-man add only because of the investment. Another team can grab him and thumb their nose that the Twins let a million-dollar kid walk away. This is a tough call, but I don't see someone grabbing him this season. He doesn't really look much better than last season, when he passed thru the Rule 5.
So, we are at 44. We really only need to drop four players, then. Again, you drop players as you add them. At this point, not really a need for a 40-man spot. If you think you are going to do a Rule 5, then you make a spot now (or later, before the draft). If you sign a free agent, you drop a corresponding position player. That's the way to play.
But we still need to drop four.
Barnes and Thorpe and Smeltzer are left-handed and rotation possible arms. They should be keepers.
Thielbar and Coulombe are left-handed relief pitchers, they can also be kept for the moment, to join Rogers and Moran.
That means we have Garza, Stashak, Gant and Dobnak on the bubble. Dobnak will stay because of his contract, but he could be jettisoned to the minors and probably not claimed because of his contract. Stashak is a probable because we don't know where he sits in injury land. If Jax is claimed, good for him getting a job opportunity elsewhere. If the Twins designate him, hopefully resign him for depth. Garza is interesting. He would compete with any minor league free agent signings, and I assume the front office will do a number of those.
We are going to easily get to 44, no doubt about that. Smeltzer, Thorpe and Stashak may be too injury prone to worry about NOT losing, so they could be lost. None contributed to the Twins in 2021.
On the offensive front we have a gaggle of outfielders: Cave, Garlick, Refsnyder, Rooker. Assuming Larnach is in the real mix, Celestino is more valuable than any of the aforementioned names, and you have Arraez/Gordon in the mix, Kirilloff in left, and Miranda in play somewhere...you can jettison all four. I would probably keep the home-grown and cheap Rooker at this point. But he would be removable if you signed anther outfielder or a designated hitter.
So, if we remove Cave, Garlick and Refsnyder, we only have to cut one of the many pitchers mentioned above, for the moment.
And we still have Willians Astudillo on the roster.
In the end, add: Lewis, Winder, Sands, Enlow, Miranda.
Lose: Cave, Garlick, Refsnyder and one of Smeltzer/Thorpe/Stashak.
We still keep Astudillo, Rooker, Coulombe, Thielbar, Garza, Jax, Barnes and two of Smeltzer/Thorpe/Stashak. Hey, and we also keep Gant, who MAY BE arbitration too expensive. But what is $4 mil these days? That's still ten guys - TEN GUYS - that can be removed for someone better!
I don't see Gore or Fundeburk or Javier or Palacios or Cabbage playing in the majors in 2022 fer sure, and especially don't see another team gambling to start the season with any of them on the roster for the first few months.
roger reacted to jun in Pineda's return for 2022? What is his contract like?
If you don't care about winning, you can certainly let Pineda walk. I don't believe Twins can sign or trade for multiple starters who are A LOT better than Pineda. Maybe that could happen in your dream.
roger reacted to HrbieFan in Pineda's return for 2022? What is his contract like?
When healthy, Big Mike is more than a #3. While he isn't an ace, he can go toe to toe with almost anyone. Highly doubt we sign a top tier free agent, so I'd be fine with Big Mike being our opening day pitcher next year.
roger reacted to Vanimal46 in Pineda's return for 2022? What is his contract like?
I like Big Mike. The Twins seem to like him, and he seems to like it here. I would welcome him back because we need consistency and stability in the rotation. He’ll rarely give you 7-8 strong innings, but he almost always gives you 5-6 good innings each outing. I think you hit the nail on the head with the contract proposal. 2/$22 with incentives based on IP. Sign me up.
roger reacted to Greglw3 in Settling in at Shortstop
I'll put my money on Eddie Rosario every time. He’s infinitely better than Jake Cave and Trevor Larnach combined this year. Just making the point that those who are Eddie detractors can’t depend on him staying down too long. He did a lot of special things for the Twins including 15 triples one year, a high ROY ranking and 2 time all star plus the 32 HR and 109 RBIs which lead the team over Nelson Cruz. But the Twins plod on with Jake Cave hitting .185.
Eddie has a career OPS+ of 108, solidly above average. Unlikely Twins can reverse their mistake because the Braves will want to re-sign him. Just one of a multitude of reasons that I gave Falvey and Levine and F.
roger reacted to Doctor Gast in Settling in at Shortstop
MIA is loaded with quality starting pitching. I agree with the saying you can never have too much starting pitching but MIA seems not able to get it done with just that. Hopefully the Twins have what MIA needs to be able to wrangle one of those pitchers away from them. Mia also has some good pitching prospects coming up
roger reacted to TopGunn#22 in Settling in at Shortstop
This will be a hot topic of conversation throughout the off season. For a while I have felt that Lewis would end up in the OF and not at SS. Martin has the potential to help at SS but his ability to play other positions makes him more of a Chris Taylor type...in the lineup nearly every day, but deployed all over the field. With the current logjam of infielders (Polanco, Arraez, Gordon, Miranda, Martin, Palacios and possibly Lewis) I see the Twins trading Arraez in a package for starting pitching. Arraez still has pretty solid trade value and we have a glut of talent coming up that I feel makes him expendable (plus Rocco refuses to make him our leadoff guy so why not trade him for pitching). Simmons will probably be a better hitter next year. How much better ? Guys like Story and Baez are tempting because they are VERY GOOD fielders who have some POP. The top off season priority is signing Buxton to a long term deal. The second priority is signing/trading for 2-3 SP's who are GOOD (not Happ or Shoemaker types). If Pineda is brought back on a reasonable deal the Twins have #3---#5 set (Pineda, Ryan, Ober). With Dobnak there is some depth and then they track Balazovic and others to see if they're ready. That means they need to sign a FA (Ray, Rodon, Gausman, Stroman etc...) and TRADE for one SP ( an Alcantara type---young and talented and who will take some heavy prospect value...Jeffers and Larnach as an example). THEN they have to figure out what their plan is at SS. A big splash like Story or Baez? Or a stop gap like DeJong (great suggestion) or Iglesias, Galvis etc... The Twins were a MESS this year. But the A.L. Central is WIDE OPEN. The White Sox are not a LOCK to repeat. The Twins FO has an opportunity to retool this roster in a strategic and effective fashion. Their jobs depend on it.
roger reacted to Mark G in Settling in at Shortstop
You hit it on the head not only with Simmons, but with Austidillo, and Jeffers as well. Anyone who watches Austidillo and sees him swing out of his helmet and on to his knees, can see he is thinking power all the way all the time. And the one thing that impressed me the most when Jeffers first came up last year is how he would square up on the ball and hit line drives; now he is doing slightly more of an upper angle and, again, looking for power numbers, and not squaring up as often as he is capable of. Austidillo puts it in play 94% of his at bats, and Jeffers can do much better in that area if they both would just use their natural talents. Simmons will do better, somewhere, as well. If we would let them be themselves, they could all do better here and solve a lot of our holes (and not cost too much; did I mention we need money for pitching?). Just my extremely humble opinion.
roger reacted to Doctor Gast in Settling in at Shortstop
I'm with you Mark. There's plenty of reasons why the Twins did soooo bad this season and Simmons isn't one of them. If Polanco remained at SS like so many wanted, he'd continued his downward spiral and we'd have totally tanked along with Polanco, possibly w/o return. The problem w/ Simmon's bat is the importance the Twins put on HRs. When he hit those early HRs it went to his head and he over swung on everything. That plus the long pause he looked terrible. The focus needs to be is to stay inside yourself, who you are, not who you aren't. You can't look only at errors, you need to look at range. The old infield bled to death with grounders always fining their way through. Going back to the old infield is not an option.
roger reacted to Mark G in Settling in at Shortstop
I realize I am still a minority on this subject, but since I first started truly following the game in the mid '60's, and from what I hear and read decades before that, teams prioritized defense at SS and catcher. Corner infielders, corner outfielders, and sometimes 2nd or center would produce the pop; the two most demanding positions were considered SS and catcher and offense wasn't a first priority. Teams would have .180 and .190 hitters at these positions while their pitchers hit as well. In the '60's the Twins had 2 or 3 pretty good hitting pitchers I used to see pinch hit for position players in late or extra innings, the hitters were not as good but played the field, and the pitchers wouldn't have it any other way. Now, in the AL, we have hitters who do nothing but, so teams are even more capable of keeping the gloves they need. The concept that Simmons has hurt the team is bizarre to me. A .220 hitting exceptional glove, and yes, he is still an exceptional glove, is more than acceptable on a team that is what? 2nd in the league in home nuns and middle of the pack in almost all other offensive categories? If we had a manager who knew anything about manufacturing runs.......arrgg, don't get me started. The only problem I have ever seen with Simmons is his price tag. He needs to come down, and he will after this season, but an affordable Simmons is better than moving Polanco OR taking a flyer on an unproven rookie. The infield needs stability, and constant moving parts are killing us. Keep this group together, and everyone will be more comfortable with each other. And Simmons will pick up the pace; his career record suggests this year was the anomaly, not the norm. (although I might spell Sano on the field a little more often)
Don't get me wrong, if we can pick up a top tier SS on the open market, by all means. But the kind of money I see bantered about day in and day out being spent on payroll, isn't as realistic as people would like to believe after 2 straight years of huge losses, as well as a new CBA looming. Put the money into pitching, and keep the gloves behind them and where they belong, not moving around the field like musical chairs. We have enough talent to cover the flaws as we stand today; keep moving the parts and the crap shoot continues. Oh, and did I say we should put our money into pitching? If not, we should put our money into pitching.
roger reacted to chpettit19 in Settling in at Shortstop
I didn't mean be an above average hitter for the league as a whole, I meant hit well enough to play as a glove only SS in the majors. Take Simmons for example. He can still field the position, but he can't even hit well enough to even be a glove first major league SS anymore. He barely hit enough when he was an all world glove at the position. The hitting standards for a glove first SS aren't terribly high, and I don't think the Twins have anyone who can even meet those standards while also fielding as well as you need to at that position to warrant a major league spot. The Miller kid they just drafted may fit the bill, but he's a fresh out of high school signing so he's not an answer anytime soon.
roger got a reaction from Greglw3 in Settling in at Shortstop
You raised a lot of questions, questions that the FO is paid to answer. How they will respond will keep our winter interesting.
You stated that Martin played exclusively in the outfield after coming over from Toronto. That isn't accurate. I watched maybe five games after he arrived and in two of them he was at shortstop. How many he played in total, I don't know, but he was at short in almost half the games I saw.
Add me to the list of those who: 1) don't know whether either of the top prospects will eventually become good major league shortstops; and 2) if the FO feels one may, am ok with having Polo at short for one more year until they get here. Polo, Arraez and Gordon can be adequate to solid defensively up the middle and very good with their bats.
roger reacted to jmlease1 in As Buxton Hope Fades, Front Office Goes
I'm hearing this opinion a lot on the boards, but what we're hearing now is that it wasn't the guaranteed money that was the sticking point on the extension, it was something related to the structure of the incentives. So from a reasonableness perspective, the issue is apparently not the guaranteed money at all.
but never let the truth get in the way of calling the Pohlad Family cheap...
roger reacted to dex8425 in As Buxton Hope Fades, Front Office Goes
Buxton's presence will not be missed on a nightly basis because he's never played on a nightly basis. Speed first outfielders with a long history of injury issues don't suddenly become more healthy in their 30's. He's not going to be consistently on the field. Frankly I think the Twins offer to him was more than I would've offered. I'd do a shorter higher AAV deal though.
roger got a reaction from Thrylos in 2017 Twins Off-Season top 60 Prospect List: 6-10
Just read several of these this morning, Thrylos. Can't tell you how good it felt to see someone else who believes in Engelb Vielema. I have seen him as the Twins future starting shortstop for several years. Maybe that will happen sometime this summer?