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jokin

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Everything posted by jokin

  1. Disingenuous a bit? It seems inevitable that it's bound to happen. The Brewers came just "this" close. Small market teams like the Royals took the first baby steps towards the trend, last year the Brewers, and now the Rays qnd Twins (albeit almost via necessity and accidental and unfortunate circumstances) have shown the way to potentially overcome the financial handicaps of hoping to compete as a small market team- get some shutdown pitchers for the late innings that are still cost-effective in their arb years, collect a secondary group of RPs both internally and externally with varying pedigrees (but still on the cheap), and avoid putting any significant sunk costs into expensive and sparkly FA SPs that will hamper your financial flexibility for other needs (or cripple it should they blow up via injury, ineffectiveness or suspensions).
  2. Fair points, all. On Pineda, the Twins have a bevy of SP hopefuls hanging around. Thorpe the most obvious, Goncalves if healthy, Smeltzer if necessary. I think giving them each a "tryout" or two will suffice until Pineda is elgible. My impression is that Pomeranz would kill to get another legit shot at starting, the Twins have put themselves in the position to hand him just that opportunity- with a team that hits better than the Brew Crew- he just might rise to the occasion. On Graterol, I think he will have a 3rd pitch in the works by next April. The kid is as good looking a young fireballing prospect as anyone I've seen this side of Strasburg or even Nolan Ryan. That easy motion and delivery should be most amenable to teaching an effective 3rd pitch if he's willing to put in the time.
  3. This would have been crazy talk to even consider a scenario like this even just 5-6 years ago, but now, given the Twins current circumstances, it makes perfect sense. Perez as a long RP, maybe in a still-winnable game where the SP goes bust? People are (justifiably) questioning Graterol's results thus far. translating to post-season. But I have an inkling that this guy's a sponge, and his learning curve is steep. And seriously, why not roll the dice with Graterol? You can feature Duffey, then May, then Graterol- Fast/Faster/Fastest- with Graterol maybe getting one or two tough outs and then handing it over to Rogers.
  4. 14 active roster pitchers and 6 more on the AAA shuttle- that's 20 MLB-capable arms- now put pencil to paper and project and "manage" the ~1600 innings needed in 2020. Apply an econometric model- you can probably produce a more effective outcome than signing two $18-25M AAV SPs and another two $8-12M AAV RPs.
  5. Great post. It's coming. The crazy economics and pitching arm fragility demands it. Tampa Bay and MN are the #1 and #2 teams in RP fWAR since August 1. I'd wager that their RP budgets are some of the lowest in MLB. 14 pitchers likely on most MLB active rosters in 2020. (The Twins, via SP injury, illness and suspension are already more than halfway there- they might become the first playoff team that logs more RP than SP innings during the post-season).
  6. In the "disappointed in the career results" category, YES to Liriano comp. But in the "compelling, must see" category, a big NO. Scott Baker, or even more, like Jason Vargas, in the "provider of baseball entertainment" category.
  7. I'm trying to do just that. At this point, he's like a Matt Capps fading fever dream. Right now? A 2020 lotto ticket if he somehow avoids serious surgery.
  8. Great post. About where I think the Twins see it (hopefully). Just have him spend serious time doing the Berrios training regimen with Jose in Puerto Rico, And have him spend the remaining spare time working on a change with Johan. Brusdar will become a beast..
  9. 1) Berrios 2) Pineda 3) FA... Dallas Kuechel 4) Dobnak's spot to lose in-season 5) Graterol's spot to lose in ST (Sign FA Drew Pomeranz- add some "Wes Magic") "Loser" of the 3 goes to the pen/AAA. QO for Odo (he declines) 7th Inning- May/Duffey 8th Inning- Trade for Ken Giles 9th Inning- Rogers
  10. Abso-tively. I've been saying so for the last two months, thanks to Rowson for making the hitting approach changes, Rocco for being the first in the org to truly believe in Garver's full potential, and especially to Garver himself, Garver has to be the MVP or co-MVP. He's transforming himself into the heart and soul of the team, offensively and in handling the pitching corps. A catcher who frequently, and justifiably, hits in the #1, and last night, the #2 spot? I can't help but feel that under the previous manager and staff, he'd still be just another catcher fighting for ABs with the other guy who got the big contract. And now, the reality is, Garver's season at the plate in terms of team impact and overall statistical production currently eclipses all of Mauer's years except for his AL MVP year. (Mauer had a wRC+ of 170 in 2009, Garver's wRC+ is now around 160). Garver's batting slash with RISP: .339/.397/.732/(1.129) Cruz's batting slash with RISP: .355/.466/.559/(1.025) Garver is the best in baseball in HR frequency. His HR/AB ratio is 1/9.75. By comparison, Trout's ratio is 10.444. Of course, his hitting splits differential are limiting him from becoming a true superstar. As Garver approaches his age 29 season, the Twins must me mindful of Garver's prodigious bat potential and consider how Buster Posey, Carlos Santana and Joe Mauer made transitions away from full-time catching duties. They need to do whatever it takes to insure that this is not just Garver's "career year" outlier. And Garver should take some off-season lessons from Max Kepler, and focus on improving his production against same-handed pitching. Perhaps he could slip into a more limited part-time catching/part-time DH or 1B role after Cruz/Cron are gone and help Garver productively extend his carer into his mid-30s.
  11. Pineda has been suspended for breaking the rules previously. The Twins knew the risks with Pineda, and the arbitrator reducing the suspension from 80 to 60 games does little to mitigate this disastrous outcome for the Twins post-season chances.
  12. Exactly. Not enough people are aware of how unusual Fenway is relative to any other ballpark. LF, RF and CF configurations are all downright strange, and pose a challenge of sensory adjustment to visiting OFers. For a guy who only plays 3 games here/year, it's amazing how perfectly Rosario played both the carom and made the perfect throw home with his back to the infield.
  13. That would sure be an awesome outcome. Would have been hard to believe 4 months ago... but Mr Rooker is positively lost among the flurry of promotions, demotions, new hires, outliers, ILers and rehabbers.
  14. I still think my idea of using the Experimental Psychology Skinnerian approach to help "send a message" to Buxton and his agent on the right way towards a succe$$ful career... (operant conditioning, the subject individual makes an association between a particular behavior and a consequence). Hear me out, to reiterate, a arb-buyout-+-3-more-year contract at much higher base rate- at Twins' option- with the current base somewhere just near or below what is commensurate with his projected arb value.... PLUS huge incentive-laden, health related upgrades: $.5M bonuses applied at 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150 games played. And the sweetener to seal the deal and lock Buck up to age 31 (2025)? an additonal $5M bonus if he appears in all 162 games. Buck made $1.75M this year. I don't know what his projected arb # is for 2020. Certainly offering achievable incentives that offer significantly greater rewards for the next 3 arb years has to be enticing to Buck and his agent. In exchange, he gives the Twins potential control with his age 31 year (2025), with a base increase in the 3 out years, besides. I would think the potential $8M in bonuses, plus say, other potential bonuses for Golden Gloves, MVP votes, etc., would be plenty motivational for Buxton to re-evaluate his devil-may-care approach in CF. The thing that convinces me that this is the way to go? When I heard that the Twins were something like 56-22 in games that he has started this year. Perhaps, the above-proposed contract would "operantly condition" Buxton and resultantly mean less shoulder-separating collisions with inanimate barriers as well as headlong face-planting concussion-causing dirt dives when the worst outcome is only a harmless single falling in front of him.
  15. Personally, I said WOW! and WAY more enjoyed the 11 single, 1 double, ZERO homer, ZERO error, ONE Brusdar, game on Sunday WAY more than the game on Saturday.... (WAY over WOW, every single time)
  16. I get the L/R percentages thing that Rocco was looking for there with his hunch. But here's the deal, over the last 15 days: Schoop: .435/.458/1.130/(1.589) Arraez: .244/.300/.267/(.567) Arraez has been scuffling in the dog days of August, at bat, and in the field. And in all reality, after a blazing start, his 2nd half OPS is only .742. Schoop was well-rested and has been by far their hottest hitter over the last 15 days. And 3rd best in OPS for August behind only Cruz and Cave. (Arraez is 9th best over the same time frame.) Schoop's 2nd half OPS is actually .881, which is 4th best on the Twins (not counting Cave), while Arraez's .742 OPS ranks next to last- 11th best- only Jason Castro is worse. Schoop also has a season # of .840 OPS vs. RHP on the road. Still, it was a close call, but Rocco's percentages and hunches went with a scuffling rookie over an established vet with the game literally on the line.
  17. Tomas Telis seems the definition of the AAAA player. He's absolutely crushed AAA pitching for the last six seasons. Still only 28. Any chance the Twins re-sign him with the intention as a major league depth piece and placeholder- assuming Castro's out- while waiting for Jeffers and/or Rortvedt to successfully complete their last refinements at Rochester next year?
  18. The Twins are likely to be outbid on Pineda in terms of years on contract- the Twins won't offer 3+ years for Big Mike, other teams will do so.
  19. Rocco explained the situation- regarding the lack of availability of other pitchers- for why this happened in his post-game presser.
  20. I'd bet on all three playing with the Twins at some point next year by ranking likelihood: 3) Rocco loves platooning, a fully healthy Kiriloff ( career MiLB ~.900 OPS vs. RHP) works his way onto the team by mid-year, playing both 1B and occasional corner OF. 2) Larnach was switched from RF to LF this year in anticipation of replacing Rosario at some point in 2020 or 2021. Is there a mid-year Rosario trade or do they trade him in the offseason and hire a stop gap FA as a bridge to Larnach? 1) Jeffers, the physics major in college, will likely do the math- and calculate how to use his bat for best use of Newtonian mechanics of the juiced AAA baseball- and hit 20 HR and OPS > .825 in the first half of 2020, thereby forcing the issue by August 1, as he replaces Astudillo (or Castro?, Telis?), as the primary backup to Mitch Garver.
  21. Another hole in this brief report. No justice for Laweryson!, who has acquitted himself remarkably well since judgement was passed on him to be only throwing Rookie level ball, despite arguably having made the case to deliver more.
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