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beckmt

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  1. Like
    beckmt reacted to jmlease1 in 2022 Twins--What Went Wrong and How to Fix It   
    I think this is a fair analysis. I will say the biggest organizational philosophy they need to examine in bullpen construction is identifying 2 pitchers that they intend to throw more than 1 inning per outing. The back end is looking a lot stronger going into next season than it was at the start of this one with Lopez, Duran, Thielbar, Jax, and (hopefully) Alcala. But I think with starters often being in the "5 and Fly" mode you need a couple of relievers that you expect to throw 2-3 innings when they come in to bridge the gap. Do they have that in Moran, Sands, winder, etc? Could Dobnak be that kind of guy? Don't know, but having TWO guys who can attack the game that way makes it viable to manage the innings load.
    Kepler is unlikely to ever have a 2019 season again; it's looking like a Brady Anderson-style fluke year. but Polanco was great in 2021 and has been injured in 2022, not bad. (and Kepler has actually produced enough to be a reasonable starter even with the injuries and sapped power...which almost certainly has a lot to do with the busted toe)
    Nick Gordon has improved as a hitter to the point where he's a quality player, especially as a super-utility guy; he's going to finish the year right around 2 bWAR. Larnach was having a fine season before injury, so saying that "he's not that good" is a snap judgment that's awfully hasty. We shouldn't assume he's going to be as great as he was in May, but we also should write him off already no better than he was in April.
    Buxton might never play a full season again, but even in 92 games he was worth 4 bWAR. That's a really good player. If they can get him to 120-130 games a season he's an all-star quality player every year.
    I mean, if you're determined to presume the worst case scenario for every Twins player, I don't know what to tell you. Find a new team if you think the twins are uniquely jinxed? While I don't think every fan has to look only on the positive side of things, casting everything in a negative light, even when the evidence suggests a different story isn't very helpful.
    Polanco isn't a bad player. Polanco doesn't need to go back to 2019; he was actually better in 2021. Nick Gordon is proof for why you shouldn't give up on Larnach too soon. Buxton, Kirilloff, and Lewis might never stay healthy enough to maximize their talent...but that's the great unknown.
  2. Like
    beckmt reacted to Brandon in Matt's Top Prospect List (August) + Writeups   
    Enlow hasn't pitched in a few years due to injury and COVID.  I suspect moving him to the pen is more about him finishing the season as he is likely on an innings limit.  
    Its good to see we still have a stable of prospects after all the promotions, injuries, ineffectiveness, and trades.  We are definitely not as deep as in years past, but I think we can make that up over the next 2 years with good drafts.  
  3. Haha
    beckmt got a reaction from operation mindcrime in Strat-O-Matic Baseball Breakdown   
    There are some leagues in the Twin Cities if anyone is interested, I can put you in touch with a couple people.  I was in for over 30 years until my wife objected to the time spent.  
  4. Incorrect
    beckmt reacted to MGM4706 in Post Lock out Moves: Potential Twins Trades   
    You are thinking way to creatively for the Twins! First of all , whatever the floor is you can be assured the Twins will figure a way to spend the least amount of money. That is always their starting point. How can we spend the least! That keeps them from cutting loose Sano and getting a productive player at first as you suggest. They also showed an unwillingness to spend at a key position like SS. So relax and get ready for another missed playoff season. Broken down pitching, Simmons back at short, Sano waving at curve balls and incompetence in LF will again be the story for 2022.
  5. Like
    beckmt got a reaction from Doctor Gast in Mill's Off-Season Blueprint: Part 2 - Adding Arms   
    no to Wacha and Ottavino,  Rest is OK, but would rather trade for a pitcher than sign Rodriguez.  Would be ok with him other than the QO.   Knebel is an undervalued pitcher I would like to have.
  6. Like
    beckmt reacted to VH 1 in My Realistic Offseason: Sign Cruz, Matz, Pineda   
    Don't bring back Cruz, we already have way to many players who can DH. Also, any SS except Simmons would be preferable. Sign Buxton, add starting pitchers.
  7. Like
    beckmt reacted to TopGunn#22 in What should the Twins offer Byron Buxton?   
    Nice, well thought out and explained article Andrew.  I, personally have no idea what they should pay him.  I only know, that when he PLAYS...he's very good.  Your article lays a foundation of how the Twins (and Byron as well) should approach this.  A solid "BASE" salary, and then incentives for games played to reach an overall salary.  This protects the Twins should Byron, once again, get injured.  It also protects the potential future earnings of Buxton and would incentivize him to remain a Twin.  And look, once the Twins and Byron settle on what he's "worth" if the Twins are unable to put together a pitching staff (like the Angels with Trout) then teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and Mets will STILL be willing to trade for him.  But as a front office, the Twins can't just let him walk.  They MUST get a deal done.
  8. Like
    beckmt got a reaction from wabene in 40-man roster decisions, part 1: position players   
    First of all, St. Paul should have a great pitching staff to start next year, as I don't see the Twins bringing any of the prospects to Minneapolis to start the year, Position players are not hard.  3 catchers if you do not trade Garver, Sano and Kirlloff at 1B (also Kirloff in the outfield), Polonco at 2B, or SS.  Gordon, Miranda, arraez and Donaldson (if not traded) at SS and 3B.  Lewis on the 40 man, but not in consideration to start, Palacios I might add as SS depth.  Buxton, Kepler, Rooker, Laurach (will probably expect him to start in St. Paul), Celastino and maybe a free agent depth outfielder, that gets me to 18 which is what I expect to have.  Only thing that would change if I were bowled over by an offer for Buxton or Polonco for what I felt was a pitcher with a #2 floor and other prospects.  You win with pitching.  Cleveland has been competitive with their good pitching (even without much hitting). 
  9. Like
    beckmt got a reaction from mikelink45 in 40-man roster decisions, part 1: position players   
    I can see keeping Rooker, since he still has options if not traded.  Buxton seems to be OK with long term, let's get it done. Pohlads have always stepped up for long term face of franchise assets, that is how I view Buxton.  If we sign Buxton, can see Kepler and Garver packaged for pitching.  Too many holes to fill there.  Gordon and Arraez and fine for utility players and should be kept and see plenty of AB's.  Cave should be gone.  Can see starting Kirlloff in left field and give Laurach some more AAA time until ready.  He was rushed this year.  
    If you don't resign Buxton this list is going to look a lot different. 
  10. Like
    beckmt reacted to Brock Beauchamp in 40-man roster decisions, part 1: position players   
    Tampa/Oakland have zero championships in the past 20 years.
    Yankees/Dodgers have two championships in the past 20 years.
    Perhaps there are other ways to win.
  11. Like
    beckmt reacted to Brandon in 40-man roster decisions, part 1: position players   
    I see Gordon as a .270 / .310 / .380 type of hitter.  I don't think he could pay SS more then as a utility player and even then he is stretched.  He seems solid in the OF to me as a back up.  He has speed.  He can also play in the IF.  He is an ideal back up player in my book.  He is a AAAA player but not like the traditional AAAA player and that makes him a back up.  He is like 85-90% across the board with major league speed.  He can also regress quickly from his current talent level and that will always be worrisome.  He doesn't have much of a ceiling beyond this.  
    Gordon had a nice run.  but so did refsnyder.  Lets see if Gordon can do that again next year.  He has definitely earned the chance to show he is a good back up player.  
  12. Like
    beckmt reacted to LanceJS in Did the Twins Fleece Tampa Twice?   
    Sorry, but even if Ryan turns out to be at least a serviceable starter (or better) AND if the Rays win the championship, no, the Twins didn't "fleece" the Rays.  Not only is it too early to tell if Ryan will be good, it is also to early to determine if the price TB paid for Cruz was worth it, as they are going for it all this year.   And I ask the same question here that I ask with every trade - why does every trade have to end with a "loser" and a "winner" like the games?  What's wrong if both teams get what they wanted from a trade? 
  13. Like
    beckmt reacted to Brandon in The Man, The Beard, The Legend: Jake Cave.   
    4th OF looks to be a competition between Cave and Refsnyder.
    Twinsfans need to get over the Badoo rule 5 pick.  That was just a lucky pick for Detroit.  No one on this board would have protected him and no one said anything when he was left unprotected and then taken....
  14. Like
    beckmt reacted to bean5302 in The Man, The Beard, The Legend: Jake Cave.   
    I think Cave's beard is a major misstep professionally. It makes him look like he's in his 40s and there's no way painting yourself as a decade and a half older than you are when you're a fringe MLB player is a good idea in my opinion.
    Unlike a lot of Twins fans, I had no issues with the Twins keeping Cave, and I don't think keeping Cave had much to do with Wade being traded. Cave's performance at the plate across 2018-2019 was just as good as Buxton's 2019-2020, but Cave definitely performed awful last year in a small sample size so it was reasonable to expect a rebound.
    That said, the Twins aren't using him anymore, and I don't think it's likely he's on the roster next year so I don't understand why he's on the roster right now. He has 29 plate appearances in the past 2-1/2 weeks since his rehab assignment ended and he was recalled.
  15. Like
    beckmt got a reaction from TwinsDr2021 in Going Forward - Retool or Rebuild?   
    If you go for a rebuild, then you have to admit the current regime is a failure.  Don't think we are there yet.  We still have to listen on Buxton and Berrios and if not extended must sell by this winter.  Problem is the new CBA is an unknown which is likely to make buying clubs reluctant to give major prospects for this year of contention, if there is possibly a short season or no season next year. 
    To me it depends on buxton and Berrios.  If the FO does not know the status, they should be fired.  Pohlad will probably need to approve the money to resign them, but this should be known at this time.
  16. Like
    beckmt got a reaction from HrbieFan in Top 30 Prospects - Summer 2021 Update   
    I also see 5 - 6 to be protected.  Though 5 seems to me the number most of us can agree on.  Nice list. As stated above Moran is an interesting case.  Do not know where he ranks.  A few other pitchers doing well like Vallimont, what is his position and does he need to be protected. 
    One grip I have with the FO is that they gave up on some pitchers too soon, and some of them are doing well. (Wells for example).
  17. Like
    beckmt reacted to DocBauer in Let the Kids Play - Starting Pitchers   
    A well thought out piece but I would disagree somewhat here and there.
    I agree Dobnak needs to work on control, and this is just my opinion, but I think his stuff almost moves too much at times. But the secret to him is getting that slider to be consistent. I watched him a little in ST and that slider looked wicked! He harnesses that, and can reign in the break of his fastball, he has everything  needed to be a solid SP.
    We are in agreement on Thorpe. A "dead arm" for a week or two early in the season is not unusual. You build up, you lose a little, and then you "muscle" back up. A LH with control, a change, a solid breaking ball, can succeed with high 80's velocity. A LH who can throw in the low 90's with the aforementioned can be pretty good. So who is Thorpe? I'm not sure right now. But I'm confused and kind of upset the Twins aren't just letting him pitch as a starter right now.
    Ober surprised me tonight. I expected the worst. I saw a decent, solid performance from a rookie starter with limited experience who threw some great pitches and maybe got squeezed a bit. But his change killed him. But I saw some good things I wasn't sure I was going to see.
    But I am just if not more excited for the second half of the season.
    Happ and Shormaker will be gone. Personally, I am hoping Pineda is not only kept but is re-signed as our 4th rotation piece for 2022 with another addition to the rotation next year, however it happens.
    And I'm 100% with you on letting the prospects play/pitch at this point.
    But what I'm waiting for is Duran, Chalmers, Winder, Balazovic and Celestino and a few others to climb the latter the second half and audition and get themselves ready for the second half of 2021 and 2022.
     
  18. Like
    beckmt got a reaction from glunn in Ranking Twins Top Trade Pieces - Part 3   
    We may still have time, but this is unwatchable.  
    For the record, even if you are retooling, if you cannot extend Berrios or Buxton by early to mid July, this is the point in time where they would have the most value.  Buxton will fetch multiple top pieces from a good farm system, think Gore from San Diego.  Berrios would certainly fetch good pieces also.  You must trade them now if they become sure to leave, my guess in that Buxton is in that class.
  19. Like
    beckmt got a reaction from Dman in Ranking Twins Top Trade Pieces - Part 3   
    We may still have time, but this is unwatchable.  
    For the record, even if you are retooling, if you cannot extend Berrios or Buxton by early to mid July, this is the point in time where they would have the most value.  Buxton will fetch multiple top pieces from a good farm system, think Gore from San Diego.  Berrios would certainly fetch good pieces also.  You must trade them now if they become sure to leave, my guess in that Buxton is in that class.
  20. Like
    beckmt reacted to Mill1634 in Ranking Twins Top Trade Pieces - Part 2   
    I agree that the white sox will get better in the next 2-3 years, but that doesn’t mean that the twins should just fold and call it a day. There is enough individual talent on this team, and prospects either already up, or on the brink that I think that they can retool and make something of a mix of current players, prospects they’ve developed, and players they target in trades or free agency. With the new CBA coming up, it is very likely that we some form of expanded playoffs that we saw last year, in which I would give the twins a very good chance at making in 2022. I do agree that they front office needs to change their mold of players they target and go for more electric arms like alcala in the bullpen, and diversify the lineup with a mixture of power and OBP guys. The good news it that AK is a great average hitter, and Larnach isn’t a boom or bust hitter like sano or garver. Lewis should be a 5 tool player as well. Add in Arraez and Polanco, and you have a more well rounded lineup than the bomba squad. I do think that an extension on berrios should be given, assuming it’s around 100-110 over 4 years. I’d sign that and not blink. Buxton I hesitate to give huge money to because of the injuries, and think they should consider a trade for young MLB ready talent. 
     
    it will be interesting to see what type of player the twins draft in a few months, as we’ve seen them target power college hitters. I’d like to see them take a bit more of a toolsy player, but it’s clear they have their type. 
  21. Like
    beckmt reacted to Physics Guy in The Twins Want a New Shortstop?   
    Yes to this. I don't think Polanco is a starting SS on a WS-caliber team. As a 2b, sure, but Arraez appears to be the better hitter. I would prefer the Twins sign Semien, Gregorius or Simmons to be their SS and use Polanco and the Util player that many have suggested Kike Hernandez for. I suspect one of the SS will be obtainable at a very reasonable and short contract. I don't like the idea of trading Arraez. He is the "tough out" in the lead off position.  I really hope Rocco puts Arraez in the lead-off position and leaves him there.  His OBP is nearly identical vs LHP and RHP, but he slugs much higher against RHP.
  22. Like
    beckmt reacted to Rosterman in Did Schoop Work for the 2019 Twins?   
    Considering Brian Dozier got a bigger contract with Washington, the Twins did pretty good. The thought of Schoop being more than a stopgap...naw. At best, he could've been a tradable asset in July, but because of the team's standing it didn't happen. He is still young and rebuilt his career a bit. Should be able to land a decent multi-year contract, but not with the Twins.
     
    A good signing. Didn't cost you anything but money.
     
  23. Like
    beckmt reacted to diehardtwinsfan in 2020 Offseason Blueprint   
    I'm not sure moving Sano to 1st solves our fielding issues for what that's worth... It just moves a problem from 3rd to 1st and creates a hole at 1st. There's not much out there that could fix that, and I don't seen Sano as an upgrade over Cron defensively... He might be worse.
     
    Also, if $40 is what it takes to get cole or something of that caiber... pay it... I don't think the Yankees do that much for a pitcher (for the record, Trout got this season $39M with endorsments), but the bottom line is that if our payroll goes higher to get him, do it...
  24. Like
    beckmt reacted to diehardtwinsfan in 2020 Offseason Blueprint   
    I waffled back and forth between Harper and Hildy on the 40 man... went with Harper as he was surprisingly decent this year... He'd get snagged in a hurry if he was let go too... so unless he's traded, I think he's protected. You might be right about Smeltzer, but I'm not quite ready to turn starters into relievers at this point, especially with how many we need right now.
     
    As for Cole/Strassburg... pay them what it takes...
  25. Like
    beckmt got a reaction from LA VIkes Fan in Clearing space - decisions about pitchers   
    I see hope for Smeltzer and Thrope, not so much for Stewart. I am still out on Dobnick.  Stashek looks more like bullpen filler to me (but small sample size). Poppen I do not see making it.  
    Can see Twins putting QO on both Oderizzi and Pineda (though I am hoping to sign Pineda at like 3/45 or 4/60) and that may be light.  Oderizzi I am hoping to keep for one to two years until we see if some of the better Twins starting pitching prospects make it. 
    Still hoping the Twins sign an ace, but that does not seem like the Twins way.  Other way might trade with Cleveland some of our outfield depth, for some of their starting pitching depth.
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