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21bdp21

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  1. Like
    21bdp21 got a reaction from PDX Twin in Finding MLB Draft Changes that Stop Tanking   
    I did some digging on baseball reference.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19VfDcfllzN6AsgZouf829ldQ9eO3ZGRU/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=113796250486978022042&rtpof=true&sd=true
    It appears the # 1 pick is roughly worth twice what the #5 pick in terms of WAR. In addition is roughly has a 20% increase in odds of making the major leagues. 
    I am still compiling data and eventually I will maybe might do an blog post here on what I find.
     
  2. Sad
    21bdp21 reacted to dxpavelka in Back in the Saddle: My Twins Offseason Blueprint   
    You keep thinking that and dreaming of duckies and bunnies and beautifully unique sparkleponies.
  3. WTF
    21bdp21 reacted to dxpavelka in Back in the Saddle: My Twins Offseason Blueprint   
    That's so cute.  Thinking that Verlander's gonna sign here.  Counting on neither Kiriloff or Larnach to flame out.  Thinking that Buxton's gonna settle for 5 years $84 million.  (Up  that $84 by 50% to $126 and he MIGHT answer the phone.  Don't know if he'd sign but at least he'd take the call.) Guess I shouldn't be surprised.  considering we're talking about a team whose Pitcher of the Year plays for another team.  P.S.  That's the pitcher we should be throwing $20 million a year at but if we want to go with the 39 year old guy who am I to object.  At least we might get Kate Upton in the stands.
  4. Like
    21bdp21 got a reaction from Doctor Gast in Back in the Saddle: My Twins Offseason Blueprint   
    From what was said about the last offer it wasn't the base garmented salary that Buxton balked at. It was the incentive package, Base of 14/y with a total of 35-40 with incentives would get the job done. 
     
     
  5. Like
    21bdp21 got a reaction from chpettit19 in Back in the Saddle: My Twins Offseason Blueprint   
    From what was said about the last offer it wasn't the base garmented salary that Buxton balked at. It was the incentive package, Base of 14/y with a total of 35-40 with incentives would get the job done. 
     
     
  6. Like
    21bdp21 reacted to KirbyDome89 in Deja Vu - Buxton Extension and Mauer Extension   
    Barring perennial MVP finishes, a certain percentage of the fanbase assuredly will. Twins fans have been conditioned to hate spending, and rather than question the tight pockets of ownership or even how FO(s) allocate available funds, it's easier to blame Player X for whatever holes the team has. There's certainly risk with signing Buxton long term, and a logical argument to be made for not going that route, but IMO the potential reward, and most importantly for me, not having to watch miserable baseball (hopefully) for another 3-4 years is worth that risk. 
  7. Like
    21bdp21 reacted to Doctor Gast in Deja Vu - Buxton Extension and Mauer Extension   
    I think the difference between the two is  that Buxton's contract would have conditions baked into it where Mauer's contract did not because he got hurt unforeseen  after the contract. Buxton's contract should be much more reasonable. 
  8. Sad
    21bdp21 reacted to Aerodeliria in Projecting the Defensive Future of Minnesota's Top Prospects   
    The problem at SS does not magically disappear in any of these scenarios. The position requires range, speed, a good glove, a strong arm and mental toughness. I suppose the closest is Lewis, but his arm is being questioned in MiLB, so it seems unlikely that it will play well in MLB. As much as I disliked Simmons bat, I still liked his play at SS. He had the highest defensive WAR on the team outside of Buxton (I believe). My hope is to go get an all-star SS who can hit a bit better than Simmons, but if the plan is to stick a sub-par SS there who can hit, I think we're spinning our wheels. I'd rather sign Simmons to another one-year deal in that scenario.
  9. Like
    21bdp21 reacted to Doctor Gast in Scouting Twins Prospects: Gilberto Celestino   
    Remember when I saw that, I could see that Broxton had a bead on that ball and could have also caught that ball but saw Celestino had the best shot. And yielded to Him. Like you said he was just as happy that Celestino made that catch as if he had made that catch himself. That's a player I'd like to play on my team.
     
     
  10. Like
    21bdp21 reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Projected Arbitration Numbers From MLBTradeRumors   
    In the case of Buxton, I'd go as high with incentives that he'd make $35m, maybe even $40m, if he maxes out games played. And then I'd consider tacking on like $5m for an MVP award.
    Do whatever it takes to extend the guy, the upside is just too great. If Buxton maxes out his incentives, the team should not be anything but thrilled no matter how much they have to pay him.
  11. Like
    21bdp21 reacted to weneedneshek in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    Been a lurker on this site for awhile but this definition of 'ace' finally motivated me to make an account. I have come up with a somewhat interesting way to define an "ace". It has to do with what I call a lockdown start. I define this as
    5-6 IP: 0 ER, 7 IP: 0-1 ER, or 8-9 IP: 0-2 ER
    If a pitcher has such a start in at least 25% of starts I consider that an 'ace' year. If a pitcher has done this in at least 2 out of their last 3 years I would call them an 'ace' pitcher.
    With that your 2021 aces are:  (AL) Ray, Cole, Rodon, Bassitt, Eovaldi. (NL) Wheeler, Scherzer, Urias, Buehler, Miley, Burnes, Woodruff, Gausman, Wainwright, Alcantara, Desclafani,
    Some notable exceptions: Peralta, Lynn, Ohtani, Kershaw (not enough IP) Musgrove, Stroman, Mccullers, Berrios (not enough lockdown starts)
    One might ask, how is Eovaldi with his 3.58 ERA an ace but Stroman with his 2.88 ERA is not? Well that is where some other stats come in handy. Eovaldi leads the AL with a 2.72 FIP. Stroman has a 3.27.
    I went with lockdown start as my metric because it evokes what a lot of us think of when we picture an 'ace'. Has a good chance to completely shutdown the opposing lineup everytime they take the mound. I quite literally have only had this idea in my head for the last 2 hours though so I'm sure there are holes and bad outliers, would love to hear further discussion.
  12. Like
    21bdp21 reacted to chpettit19 in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    I'm a "small hall" and "handful of aces" person. If I'm "ranking" pitchers in a staff I do it like this:

    #5 pitchers (Happ, Dobnak, filler types you don't think twice about cutting and replacing with upcoming prospects, never want starting a playoff game)
    #4 pitchers (veteran guys who will eat innings and keep you in more games than not, also easily replaced by upcoming prospects, but you expect to be in your rotation much of the season, never want starting a playoff game)
    #3 pitchers (Pineda types you can count on to give you a solid outing almost every time, but don't have great "stuff" or K numbers, can count on them for a playoff start or 2, but don't want them starting games 1, 2 or 6, 7)
    #2 pitchers (Odo, Maeda (in a normal year, not his stand out 2020) type guys who you count on to give you a good start every time out, but just don't have that last little bit to make them a #1 (usually lacking a little in the K department), can count on them in playoff games, but don't want them starting games 1 or 7)
    #1 pitchers (Berrios types who go out every 5th day and give you a chance to win basically every time, have good stuff and rarely have terrible outings, but you also aren't totally shocked they had 3 or 4 starts a year that they gave up 7, can start any playoff game, but aren't "aces")
    Aces (Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer, Cole, deGrom types, only 5-10 of them in the game most of the time, are shocked when they give up more than 3 or 4 in any game or don't K at least 10 guys, go into every game expecting their team to win, want starting as many playoff games as possible)
    I agree with most of the people here who say "Ace" is arbitrary and hard to truly define. I think it's more about the expectations you have for a guy. If I told you Berrios went 5 innings and gave up 5 with 8 Ks and an inning where he walked 2 and gave up 3 I don't think many people would be shocked. If I told you deGrom had those numbers I think most people would ask if he was hurt. But you also wouldn't be shocked if I told you Berrios went 7, gave up 2, had 11 Ks, and walked 1. But that's the expectation for deGrom, Kershaw, Verlander types. 
    I think you can win a World Series with 2 #1s and 2 #2s, but it sure makes it a whole lot better if you're running out an "Ace" or 2. And if you have to run out more than 1 #3 in a playoff series you're probably in trouble, especially without an "Ace" or 2 to take the rest of the games. I'd be happy to go into a playoff series with 2 Berrios types and 2 Odo types. I think you can win a lot of series with that setup. And I think that's doable with an org with the Twins financial situation (whether it's cheap owners or the actuality of their finances).
  13. Like
    21bdp21 reacted to bean5302 in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    I did some research into my own questions around this a few years ago and I noticed some pretty distinct break lines between pitchers having a career year, mid rotation arms and "aces." Aces are consistent. They almost never give up 5+ runs in a game. A mid rotation type pitcher will have a streak of at least 3-4 games in a row without having a non-quality start as defined by 6.0+ innings and an ERA of less than 4.00 (3 ER starts need to go 7.0 IP+ to meet that definition). Ace pitchers are usually 5+ games at least once during the season.
    Zack Wheeler - Wheeler has only allowed 5+ runs twice. The 8 game streak of quality starts makes it clear though, it's not luck driven, he's the real deal.
    1 QS, 3 NQ 1 QS, 1 NQ 8 QS, 1 NQ 2 QS, 2 NQ 1 QS, 4 NQ 2 QS, 1 NQ Max Scherzer - Again, only 2 games allowed all year with 5+ runs and a 5+ game quality start streak.
    0 QS, 1 NQ 3 QS, 1 NQ 2 QS, 2 NQ 2 QS, 2 NQ 2 QS, 2 NQ 4 QS, 1 NQ - 1 game 3.1 inning game 0 ER shortened by rain 5 QS, 0 NQ Berrios - Berrios is awfully close to meeting the definition. He's only had 2 games giving up 5+ runs this year and 2 of his last 5 starts have been 6.2 IP with 3 ER = 4.05 ERA. All he needed was 0.1 IP more in each of those without giving up a run and he'd have 5 consecutive starts doing that. Still, Berrios isn't quite as rock solid as what somebody might expect of an Ace; I think he's a very good pitcher, but just not the kind of guy you really want leading your rotation in the playoffs.
    1 QS, 4 NQ 1 QS, 3 NQ 1 QS, 1 NQ 1 QS, 1 NQ 1 QS, 1 NQ 1 QS, 2 NQ 3 QS, 3 NQ 1 QS, 1 NQ 2 QS, 1 NQ
  14. Yikes, Bro
    21bdp21 reacted to adjacent in 3 Twins Players Set to Bounce Back in 2022   
    Given the horrible, really bad 2021 that he had, anything could be an improvement for Dobnak. So, I say him. Related to that. In spring training, they say he had come up with a new slider that was really good. Soon after he went down with the injury to his finger and never really recover. A question for those who know about pitchin. Could it be that the slider was really good at the beginning, but it was putting additional strain on his finger, and after a while the finger got hurt with the consequences that we've seen?
  15. Like
    21bdp21 reacted to dex8425 in Game Thread Twins at Yankees 1:10pm cdt 9/13/2021 ad   
    How about a hard salary cap and a hard salary floor?!
  16. Like
    21bdp21 reacted to Mike Sixel in Game Thread Twins at Yankees 1:10pm cdt 9/13/2021 ad   
    Ya, I'm not ready to move on from Garver....but, shockingly, Jeffers is 37th in all of baseball in catcher fWAR this year......and top ten in home runs, IIRC. Unreal how bad catcher hitting is this year across the league outside the top guys.
  17. Like
    21bdp21 reacted to LVTwinsfan in Game Thread Twins at Yankees 1:10pm cdt 9/13/2021 ad   
    Arraez can hit
  18. Like
    21bdp21 reacted to LVTwinsfan in Game Thread Twins at Yankees 1:10pm cdt 9/13/2021 ad   
    At the least make the umpires accountable 
  19. Like
    21bdp21 reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Game Thread Twins at Yankees 1:10pm cdt 9/13/2021 ad   
    Automate the strikezone already, MLB.
  20. Haha
    21bdp21 reacted to LVTwinsfan in Game Thread Twins at Yankees 1:10pm cdt 9/13/2021 ad   
    I’m actually surprised Justin understands it, maybe he wants to be a GM
  21. Like
    21bdp21 reacted to LVTwinsfan in Game Thread Twins at Yankees 1:10pm cdt 9/13/2021 ad   
    There are a lot of people who don’t understand WAR
  22. Like
    21bdp21 reacted to Seth Stohs in Game Score: Rays 5, Twins 3   
    A fairly large percentage of minor leaguers work for Uber or similar in the offseason... most minor leaguers (those without the big bonuses) have to get jobs in the offseason. 
  23. WTF
    21bdp21 reacted to peterb18 in Game Score: Rays 5, Twins 3   
    Not impressed by Dobnak at all. When our front signs a Uber driver to pitch in a big league game it shows you how far we have fallen.
  24. WTF
    21bdp21 reacted to PDX Twin in Twins to Promote Olympic Medalist Joe Ryan, Slated to Start Wednesday   
    Maybe the Twins can find him a barber before tomorrow night...
  25. Like
    21bdp21 got a reaction from TopGunn#22 in 3 Questions Byron Buxton Can Answer in September   
    5 years 15/ year with incentives up to 30/yr for games played.  Make it easy to get to 20. Than have another 5-10 for awards based incentives. If he plays a MVP year and he could make 40 mil.
     
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