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tony&rodney

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  1. Like
    tony&rodney got a reaction from cjm0926 in My 2022 Offseason Blueprint: Round 2   
    Opinions differ. They are similar. The money will almost surely favor Berrios though. 
    Berrios is no longer a Twin, but he did everything possible to succeed and i wish him well.
     
  2. Like
    tony&rodney got a reaction from cjm0926 in My 2022 Offseason Blueprint: Round 2   
    Winder may just be the best young pitcher the Twins have. i would trade Ryan before giving up Winder.
    Bassitt is a good add and may not require such a high price. Trades may also be on hold as roster decisions are made, meaning we wait until February to see what happens to complete the 2022 team.
  3. Like
    tony&rodney got a reaction from TopGunn#22 in 2022 Off-Season Moves by terrydactyls   
    The Twins only lose their Round 2 pick by signing a top pick. Any changes to the CBA will likely not be immediate in regards to free agency. For example, if a decision is made to change the years necessary to become a free agent from six to five, those players at five will not suddenly become free agents. 
    The idea of trading for pitching remains important. Miami, Oakland, and Milwaukee are three teams to call, but there are others worth a text too. Miami is trying to sign Alcantara long term and increasingly unlikely to deal him. They want catchers and outfielders. They are set at 2B and 3B. The idea is correct however. Maybe a spin for Meyer would work. I had suggested a trade of Larnach, Jeffers, Sands, Celestino, and Lewis for Alcantara and Meyer. Miami says no, so try to pry away Meyer and Cabrera for TL, RJ, GC, Vallimont, and Cavaco. This may not work, but there should be trades available in time. Maybe the Reds are willing too.
    I like the idea of Ray, Stroman, Gray, and Rodriguez. It may be very difficult to outbid other teams. I expect Stroman to get $22-25, and Rodriguez to get $15. Ray may get $27, and Gray $15. This will all be hard for budgets. We shall see.
    The Braves (Liberty) published their Quarter 3 numbers and it is an interesting glance into baseball economics. 
  4. Like
    tony&rodney got a reaction from snap4birds in 2022 Offseason Blueprint: Trades for Flaherty, Manaea   
    The Twins and Cardinals don't seem to match up. It seems like the goal was to use BTV to find a good starting pitcher, thus the LA for JF swap idea. As such I think the trade idea was sound. BTV has very limited usefulness. It is worth a look for comparison sake. I'm a Twins fan and there is no way that the Cardinals accept that trade, although it sure would be sweet for the Twins.
  5. Like
    tony&rodney got a reaction from Sconnie in 2022 Offseason Blueprint: Trades for Flaherty, Manaea   
    I like the willingness to trade for a few starters and to sign a few players as well. This is a practical roster. The Cardinals may value Flaherty too highly to trade him, Sano might be tough to trade, and the Dodgers may still love Taylor. I like the idea that change is possible. Having thought about ways to look at a roster for 2022, I appreciate the exercise you have completed and it looks solid.
  6. Like
    tony&rodney got a reaction from TopGunn#22 in 2022 Offseason Blueprint: Trades for Flaherty, Manaea   
    I like the willingness to trade for a few starters and to sign a few players as well. This is a practical roster. The Cardinals may value Flaherty too highly to trade him, Sano might be tough to trade, and the Dodgers may still love Taylor. I like the idea that change is possible. Having thought about ways to look at a roster for 2022, I appreciate the exercise you have completed and it looks solid.
  7. Like
    tony&rodney got a reaction from Cory Engelhardt in 2022 Offseason Blueprint: Trades for Flaherty, Manaea   
    I like the willingness to trade for a few starters and to sign a few players as well. This is a practical roster. The Cardinals may value Flaherty too highly to trade him, Sano might be tough to trade, and the Dodgers may still love Taylor. I like the idea that change is possible. Having thought about ways to look at a roster for 2022, I appreciate the exercise you have completed and it looks solid.
  8. Like
    tony&rodney got a reaction from Minny505 in What should the Twins offer Byron Buxton?   
    Where was it that there was an article stating that the actual correct number for WAR was just over $4 million? Fangraphs?
    Buxton would be wise to sign for 7/$140 million. If the Twins can get a 7/$80 million base, they should absolutely go really high with incentives.
  9. Like
    tony&rodney got a reaction from TheLeviathan in A 21-22 Offseason Idea   
    So true. Since this time a year ago, I have been pushing for an overpay (according to some) for Sandy Alcantara. Why? Alcantara pitches a ton of innings and is consistently a decent pitcher, which is somewhat similar to Jose Berrios. I have no idea what Miami would do but I'm offering Jeffers, Larnach, Celestino, Sands, Dobnak, and Canterino for Alcantara and Meyer. This may be totally bogus but I'm open to whatever brings pitching. Along the same line, Oakland needs a call as well. I'm wondering if Arraez, Rooker, Duffey, and Cavaco could pry away Montas or is that laughed off? The trading front could bring two really stable pitchers for around $10-11 million, which is a good thing for the budget.
    I love how steady Seager is at shortstop and at the plate, but he will get at least 6 years and probably $30 million per year. The Twins might want to go simple at shortstop, like Galvis, but their strategy at SS will clarify if Buxton is signed. 
    Count me in on Adrianza - steady and predictable production with class. Knebel or Graveman are solid adds to the bullpen worth a shot at around the price used in the post.
    The offseason strategy still depends on the budget but most of us expect around $130 million, even if we want around $150 million.
  10. Like
    tony&rodney got a reaction from TopGunn#22 in What should the Twins offer Byron Buxton?   
    Where was it that there was an article stating that the actual correct number for WAR was just over $4 million? Fangraphs?
    Buxton would be wise to sign for 7/$140 million. If the Twins can get a 7/$80 million base, they should absolutely go really high with incentives.
  11. Like
    tony&rodney got a reaction from Andrew Mahlke in What should the Twins offer Byron Buxton?   
    Where was it that there was an article stating that the actual correct number for WAR was just over $4 million? Fangraphs?
    Buxton would be wise to sign for 7/$140 million. If the Twins can get a 7/$80 million base, they should absolutely go really high with incentives.
  12. Like
    tony&rodney reacted to bean5302 in Non-tendering Taylor Rogers Would Be a Huge Mistake   
    Rogers is a no-doubter to sign if his finger has recovered, and based on the timeline... it really should be provided he doesn't need surgery after all. Since surgery was an option, but not an absolute requirement, I'm taking a wild guess that Rogers was dealing with a pretty serious Grade III pulley strain issue.
    https://theclimbingdoctor.com/pulley-injuries-explained-part-2/#:~:text=6-8 weeks is the,ROM exercises after immobilization phase.
    Grade III – Complete A2 or A3 rupture (Most common pulley injury – A2)
    3 months are recommended for a return to FULL climbing activities due to the biomechanical implications of an A2/A3 pulley rupture. Immobilization for 10-14 days is necessary to protect the pulley and after the immobilization/splinting process, you will use a thermoplastic pulley ring provided by a doctor instead of tape (more on the ring later). Passive ROM exercises following immobilization. Functional exercises will begin at the full 4 week mark, and EASY climbing will commence after a 6-8 week period from injury onset. At 3 months you can begin full climbing activities, and you’ll wear the pulley ring (or tape) for roughly 6 months after climbing begins again. In the linked website from The Climbing Doctor, it says full climbing can resume in about 3 months with taping... that was a month ago for Taylor Rogers, and full and complete recovery around 6 months. I haven't heard a thing about Rogers throwing recently. Just that he was scheduled to see a specialist in September, which should have been about where he could resume full normal physical activities.
    Obviously, pitching is different than climbing, but the stresses on the finger from climbing would be greater than that of a typical pitcher throwing, I'd assume. Why? Because the finger strain seems to be relatively common for climbers and very rare for pitchers. Just a guess though.
    If Rogers hasn't recovered from the strain, it's a bad sign he'll need to go the surgical route and now we're starting to get to the point where his 2022 is in clear danger. It's worth noting, articles on the surgery indicate it's not always fully successful in that pain can persist and range of motion can be impacted, requiring potentially another surgery.
    If Rogers is going to need surgery, the Twins' situation becomes a lot murkier and I'd pass on signing Rogers.
  13. Like
    tony&rodney reacted to Whitey333 in Non-tendering Taylor Rogers Would Be a Huge Mistake   
    I totally agree that we need to keep Rogers for all of the above mentioned reasons.  But who knows what the current "brain trust" will do.  As to worrying about the payroll budget, who knows what that is?  Because these signings fit into our fantasy baseball budget doesn't mean it will with Twins.  People on here talk about a 150 million payroll.  That would be nice.  But how do we know that?  What if the payroll is reduced to 90-100 mil?  Then what?  I have no clue which way twins will go.
  14. Like
    tony&rodney got a reaction from TopGunn#22 in Let Me Talk About Catchers   
    Yes, I agree the A's are not interested in a catcher. They want infielders and sluggers. I'm not sure what to add to Arraez and Rooker, but would give Duffey, maybe Dobnak  and a minor leaguer like Steer or Cavaco.
    The idea we agree on - add pitching. I looked at the trade value site months ago but while it has some value the GM's almost certainly have totally different views on players. Garver is the perfect example. While I really think Jeffers will improve, Garver is clearly a better player for now and the next two to three years. The Twins could strike early with a few trades like what we hope to see and even overpay if necessary to complete the deals.
    Buxton's contract, however, is a key and may put a hold on things. I'm afraid if the Twins need to trade Byron that they might find it difficult to return the value they need from losing his talent. The Twins would need to allow teams an opportunity to talk contract with BB to increase his value. Hopefully the Twins are on this right now because getting resolution is not too important for the player but is crucial for the team.
  15. Like
    tony&rodney got a reaction from TopGunn#22 in Let Me Talk About Catchers   
    Garver is the best of the three and I would hazard a guess that other teams put a higher value on Garver than Jeffers. The hope is that the Twins are better next year, at least above .500 and hopefully in a dead heat for the AL Central lead. In order to improve the team needs starting pitching. Miami and Oakland seem to be two possible trade partners and I'm looking at Alcantar and Meyers from Miami and Montas or Bassitt from Oakland. The question is what do the other teams need and want. Garver, Larnach, Sands, + for Alcantara and Meyers? If the Twins can settle the Buxton contract, then Celestino or others to sweeten the deal? Miami fans are suggesting Lopez for Abrams and Campusino from San Diego. It all gets a little crazy as we play with who would benefit our Twins and what players would be attractive to another team from the Twins roster.
    Garver is a good player and worth keeping, but at some point the Twins need to attempt to gain a pitcher. If Miami prefers Jeffers, who I believe will improve next year and beyond, then substitute Jeffers in the trade.
    Lastly, Rortvedt is the best defensive catcher of the three and he can make some adjustments at the plate. He is a mighty strong dude and seems to want to crush everything. A little experience, manage the swing, and he can become a decent hitter, in my opinion.
  16. Like
    tony&rodney got a reaction from Mark G in Grading Falvey and CO   
    I'm a Twins fan and have supported the team since they came to Minnesota. I do not have many criticisms of the current management team. They all have baseball backgrounds and knowledge. It is not understandable to me that anyone who believes themselves a baseball fan could take such a misplaced view of baseball acumen in criticism of Molitor. He is generally regarded by baseball players and insiders as among the most knowledgable persons in the sport in the last half century. Terry Ryan is still regarded as a top baseball man. I'm not suggesting that Ryan and Molitor should still be in their former positions but they had way more experience and knowledge than our current management folk. Change happens and it is fine, but the denigration of the former guys isn't just unnecessary, it is not accurate. It comes off as angry ill-informed opinion. Baldelli does a decent job and the Falvine duo get another opportunity this offseason to build a better baseball team. I think they will try hard to accomplish this feat and will listen and watch as next season plays out. I too am rooting for our current decision-makers to succeed.
  17. Like
    tony&rodney got a reaction from DJL44 in Pineda's return for 2022? What is his contract like?   
    Winning? The Twins need three starting pitchers better than Michael Pineda, a couple of relief pitchers, a shortstop, and a leftfielder. While I would welcome Big Mike back, there is a ton of more pressing trades/signings needed if the Twins want to be above .500. 
  18. Like
    tony&rodney reacted to DocBauer in Is Brent Rooker Better Than His Stats?    
    I'm taking a strange, opposite approach here.
    Rooker has always been declared as a solid athlete since drafted, and throughout his milb career, with a decent arm. This has been referenced to some degree in the OP. So why has that not translated? Has he just not worked hard enough at it? Or does he just not have good recognition skills? After watching such OF as Willingham and Young play the OF, I have the belief Rooker has room to improve defensively just through work and repitition.
    But his bat has to be his calling card, whether he is a DH or role player.
    He MIGHT be running out of time after a productive and exciting SSS in 2020. He sure didn't seem to take advantage in 2021 with the opportunities presented to him. But with a little 20/20 vision used, as well as some of the positives listed in the OP, he has clearly demonstrated in his milb career that each promotional level he has needed a little time to settle in, figure some things out, and then rake. Now, he hasn't exactly done the same thing at the ML level to be sure! And maybe he won't. But it's the hardest last step to make.
    I could see him being included in a package, especially to a team hurting for a semi-young power bat to add to their offense and willing to give him 400-500 AB. But I think he's talented enough I'd keep him on the 40 and continue working with him.
  19. Like
    tony&rodney got a reaction from DocBauer in Is Brent Rooker Better Than His Stats?    
    Rooker hits the ball hard and I'm hoping another team feels they would like him in their lineup. Rooker is pretty rough in the outfield and may be most valuable as a third or fourth piece in a trade for a pitcher. Still, Brent Rooker is a player that is worth a roster position and certainly should be on a 40 man list. He is still developing and gaining experience and his past indicates improvement over time.
  20. Like
    tony&rodney reacted to bronald3030 in Settling in at Shortstop   
    If the front office does not think they can resign Buxston, they might see if San Diego would give up C J Abrams and MacKenzie Gore
     
  21. Like
    tony&rodney reacted to TopGunn#22 in What the AL Central Taught Us in a Full Season   
    Ted, I think your breakdown of the division further underscores the task our FO has this off-season.  It's still a winnable division.  The Tigers are emerging (great looking young pitching) and the White Sox will still be good.  While Lynn and Keuchel may not be as good next year, guys like Cease and Lopez look like their potential is more than just "theoretical."  Will Rodon be back ?  Will he be HEALTHY ?  And I think Kopech could fund himself a full-time starter and not a BP guy.  Cleveland will have their Ace (Bieber) back and Quantrill looks legit but their offense is still very sketchy.  And what kind of impact will Witt jr. and Prato have on the Royals ?  But it's still a winnable division.  It's not impossible for this FO to make the moves that would put the Twins right back in the thick of things.  We've seen how epically bad this FO can be.  For me, this off-season and coming season is make or break for them as well as Rocco.  I'm looking for some big FA moves and big trades---a big shakeup to retool the roster and reset the expectations for this group of sorry underachievers.  
  22. Like
    tony&rodney reacted to bean5302 in Grading Falvey's Drafts   
    This is about the results from the front office based on what has been seen up until now, including how well our prospects have performed in the minors. There are exceptions to the rule, but most eventual MLB players do not struggle or even fail to impress in the low minors multiple years after they were drafted. Still, getting to MLB is absolutely worth something and that's reflected in the front office's grade for Larnach.
    The front office got a C grade for Larnach because he made it to MLB in the first place. C grade is acceptable. It's average. It's good enough. It's nothing special. Even if Larnach never makes anything out of himself, and I projected him not to, it still gave Falvey a C grade. This isn't an Uber ride where somebody gets fired if you don't give them 5 stars.
    Larnach was drafted as a bat only player which means he absolutely has to rake to be of significant value. The front office was behind the 8-ball from day 1 on the Larnach, Sabato, Wallner and Rooker picks because there was nothing to fall back on. The front office made that call and they need to live with it.
    Side note, it is not uncommon to see college players in MLB at 3-4 years, and the best college players get to MLB in 1-2 years. 2020 did throw some wrenches into the mix, but Larnach is not particularly young and he participated in the alternate site in 2020. He'll be 25 years old at the start of next season, and that's generally about the cutoff for a "prospect" being considered a prospect. The effects of a lost season diminish over time.
    As far as missing context, I'm not writing a book, I'm writing a blog. To deep dive into every conceivable aspect of the draft would take hundreds of hours of work. You're more than welcome to do the digging yourself. :)
     
  23. Like
    tony&rodney reacted to mike8791 in Which Prospect Anchors 2022's Rotation?   
    Like your analyses! Agree with the likely ceiling for top Twin prospects.  If Winder can stay healthy, he seems to have best potential among our top 10 prospects.  All the rest look like back-end starters or potential relievers(Duran, Canterino).  Sure, there could be a big surprise awaiting, but how likely are one of these guys going to add a superior third pitch relatively late in their development career?  
    As bean states, this analysis makes it even more imperative that FO goes after two starters this offseason not currently in the Twin's system.  As many of us said that's a high hill to climb, but doable nonetheless.
  24. Like
    tony&rodney reacted to chpettit19 in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    Can the Twins afford to pay an "ace?" Yes. Any team can. The question is what can they surround them with. According to the contract numbers in the original post the average "ace" FA contract from each year is 27, 26.5, 26.5, 27, 27, 28, 28, 26.6, 25.4 29.75, 30, 30, 31.5, 31.5. The average annual money for all the "ace" deals is 27.75 per year (I didn't include the 2M per year deferrals for Scherzer as that isn't a typical deal and isn't what anyone is actually talking about when they talk about signing players to these deals). I think 150-160 is a reasonable enough payroll target for the Twins. We'll go with the top end 160.
    Having 1 of those guys takes up 17% of your payroll. Having 2 of them takes up 35%. Having 1 would leave you with about 130 million to spend and having 2 would leave you with about 105 left to spend on the rest of the team. The question isn't whether or not they can afford any of these guys, or even whether those guys are worth their money. The question is can you build a world series contending team (or division winning, or whatever your goal is) with 1 "ace" and 130M or 2 "aces" and 105M. There's 24 or 25 other spots to fill. Don't have time to run the numbers right now, but that's the discussion that should be happening.
    I think the answer to all of these questions is always that you have to develop minor leaguers. Whether you draft them, trade for them, sign them internationally, pick them out of Ubers, or whatever. You need to develop your own talent and have them be good from almost the jump to be competitive. Even the Yankees and Dodgers do. Walker Buehler being an "ace" on a pre-arb deal allows them to do so much more with their already significant financial advantage. Add in Seager, Smith, and Bellinger on pre-arb or arb deals and it's outrageous. The Rays and As compete because they have young guys who contribute more than their contracts say they should. Too much discussion is based around free agent signings. Free agents are the compliments to your young core, not the other way around. So, yes, the Twins can afford those big deals, but it doesn't mean anything if their cheap guys are garbage. Just ask the teams we ran out there with a cy young award winner, 2 MVPs, an elite reliever, and a young stud #2 arm that also couldn't win in the playoffs.
  25. Like
    tony&rodney got a reaction from Mark G in No, Top FA Starters Are Not Risky   
    Excellent work and a fine piece of writing to support an offseason where the Twins absolutely need to make the best bids for a couple of starting pitchers. On other posts there are questions about how anyone can project for pitchers like Alcantara, Ray, Rodon, and others but the more important point is made in this post - the best players are worth their money. I was a fan of trading Dozier two years before he left because the Twins really needed help and there were few options other than trades. Right now, the Twins have multiple players at the same positions and money to spend on free agents; there are really good options this offseason and the sooner the Twins act the better.
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