amjgt

What is a free agent worth? $8M AAV per WAR. That's what they all tell me. It never felt right because it never seems to work out that way, ESPECIALLY for the top end of the FA market.
It is based on this article ( https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cost-of-a-win-in-free-agency-in-2020/ ) as well as an older article that he reference a couple times
There are two problems here.
1) He is relying on future WAR projections, attempting to quantify the Qualifying Offer silliness (not his silliness... the system's silliness), as well as some other assumptions. All of these things might seem logical on their own but once you roll them all together things get messy and lack real world context.
2) That's not how people are using his work. They are looking at past WAR and saying "based on his 2.3 WAR average the last two seasons he's worth 20M in free agency." -- Spolier Alert: 2.3 WAR players are lucky to get half of that in free agency --. Even for the people that might claim that they are actually saying that player provided 20M in VALUE .... That's not true either. In 2021 MLB payrolls were about $4 Billion and Players provided about 650 positive WAR. So really in that context a "WAR" is worth $6M. ($4B/650), but that's not really what I'm after here. I'm after what is actually happening in free agency and how it correlates to past performance. 
 
Here it is.

 
I looked at the top 20 free agents (according to MLB Trade Rumors) from two recent offseasons, looked at their free agent contract AAV, then looked up their WAR from the previous three seasons (fWAR in this case). I looked at it two similar ways. First was just their WAR from the season before free agency, and second I looked at it based on the average of their previous two seasons.
Key points:
The average is right around $6.0M/WAR (There's that number again)
Almost nobody gets 8.0/WAR. If they do it's usually one of two special circumstances. a) They're a RP, or b) they missed a bunch of time which suppressed their WAR in a given season
The top end free agents definitely don't get $8/WAR. They are more around $5/WAR
 
Conclusion: We can project future value, make assumptions, and try to account for market factors all we want, but at the end of the day, the numbers are the numbers. We have baseball-wide economics telling us that the value of 1.0WAR is about $6M ($4B/650WAR) and we have front offices signing free agents at about $6M per WAR from previous seasons. 
Maybe the number we should start using for projecting free agent AAV is $6M, not $8M
 

What is a free agent worth? $8M AAV per WAR. That's what they all tell me. It never felt right because it never seems to work out that way, ESPECIALLY for the top end of the FA market.
It is based on this article ( https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cost-of-a-win-in-free-agency-in-2020/ ) as well as an older article that he reference a couple times
There are two problems here.
1) He is relying on future WAR projections, attempting to quantify the Qualifying Offer silliness (not his silliness... the system's silliness), as well as some other assumptions. All of these things might seem logical on their own but once you roll them all together things get messy and lack real world context.
2) That's not how people are using his work. They are looking at past WAR and saying "based on his 2.3 WAR average the last two seasons he's worth 20M in free agency." -- Spolier Alert: 2.3 WAR players are lucky to get half of that in free agency --. Even for the people that might claim that they are actually saying that player provided 20M in VALUE .... That's not true either. In 2021 MLB payrolls were about $4 Billion and Players provided about 650 positive WAR. So really in that context a "WAR" is worth $6M. ($4B/650), but that's not really what I'm after here. I'm after what is actually happening in free agency and how it correlates to past performance. 
 
Here it is.

 
I looked at the top 20 free agents (according to MLB Trade Rumors) from two recent offseasons, looked at their free agent contract AAV, then looked up their WAR from the previous three seasons (fWAR in this case). I looked at it two similar ways. First was just their WAR from the season before free agency, and second I looked at it based on the average of their previous two seasons.
Key points:
The average is right around $6.0M/WAR (There's that number again)
Almost nobody gets 8.0/WAR. If they do it's usually one of two special circumstances. a) They're a RP, or b) they missed a bunch of time which suppressed their WAR in a given season
The top end free agents definitely don't get $8/WAR. They are more around $5/WAR
 
Conclusion: We can project future value, make assumptions, and try to account for market factors all we want, but at the end of the day, the numbers are the numbers. We have baseball-wide economics telling us that the value of 1.0WAR is about $6M ($4B/650WAR) and we have front offices signing free agents at about $6M per WAR from previous seasons. 
Maybe the number we should start using for projecting free agent AAV is $6M, not $8M
 

What is a free agent worth? $8M AAV per WAR. That's what they all tell me. It never felt right because it never seems to work out that way, ESPECIALLY for the top end of the FA market.
It is based on this article ( https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cost-of-a-win-in-free-agency-in-2020/ ) as well as an older article that he reference a couple times
There are two problems here.
1) He is relying on future WAR projections, attempting to quantify the Qualifying Offer silliness (not his silliness... the system's silliness), as well as some other assumptions. All of these things might seem logical on their own but once you roll them all together things get messy and lack real world context.
2) That's not how people are using his work. They are looking at past WAR and saying "based on his 2.3 WAR average the last two seasons he's worth 20M in free agency." -- Spolier Alert: 2.3 WAR players are lucky to get half of that in free agency --. Even for the people that might claim that they are actually saying that player provided 20M in VALUE .... That's not true either. In 2021 MLB payrolls were about $4 Billion and Players provided about 650 positive WAR. So really in that context a "WAR" is worth $6M. ($4B/650), but that's not really what I'm after here. I'm after what is actually happening in free agency and how it correlates to past performance. 
 
Here it is.

 
I looked at the top 20 free agents (according to MLB Trade Rumors) from two recent offseasons, looked at their free agent contract AAV, then looked up their WAR from the previous three seasons (fWAR in this case). I looked at it two similar ways. First was just their WAR from the season before free agency, and second I looked at it based on the average of their previous two seasons.
Key points:
The average is right around $6.0M/WAR (There's that number again)
Almost nobody gets 8.0/WAR. If they do it's usually one of two special circumstances. a) They're a RP, or b) they missed a bunch of time which suppressed their WAR in a given season
The top end free agents definitely don't get $8/WAR. They are more around $5/WAR
 
Conclusion: We can project future value, make assumptions, and try to account for market factors all we want, but at the end of the day, the numbers are the numbers. We have baseball-wide economics telling us that the value of 1.0WAR is about $6M ($4B/650WAR) and we have front offices signing free agents at about $6M per WAR from previous seasons. 
Maybe the number we should start using for projecting free agent AAV is $6M, not $8M
 

Since we're giving opinions here, my personal opinion is that I liked it better before the Twins Daily Articles got their own forum. I understand why it was done, but I feel like it has lessened potential traffic and interaction for both TD Official Writers as well as regular posters. I don't feel like there are SO many official articles that it would "bog down" the regular forum.
 
I liked having a mix of official stuff and silly/user generated content. Both are awesome in their own ways and having them in the same place showed that off.
 
But... that's just my opinion.
 
 

John forwarded me your PM and we're talking about it. My gut says that things will stay the way they are now with the big caveat BUT...
 
The new site is going to be MUCH more social-oriented. We're going to be making big pushes to integrate and mix how users see and react to content, not only in the forums but also the blogs and amongst each other on profile walls and whatnot. On top of the typical news/forums/blogs of the current site, there's going to be a lot more of a Facebook-style vibe where users can talk to each other on their walls (that are more customizable), there are achievements to unlock that will (in time) grant additional features, you can easily track other user movements from said wall, there are semi-private clubs where people can participate outside the forums, the list goes on and on.
 
Because we have so many balls in the air right now, I'm leaning away from making another significant forum change, if only to ease the burden on moderators. We haven't ruled it out permanently but it's likely to be shelved for at least a little while.
 
Once you all see the new site, you'll understand what I mean. It's MASSIVE with literally dozens upon dozens of new features that encourage users to find new ways to create content and talk about Twins baseball.

Since we're giving opinions here, my personal opinion is that I liked it better before the Twins Daily Articles got their own forum. I understand why it was done, but I feel like it has lessened potential traffic and interaction for both TD Official Writers as well as regular posters. I don't feel like there are SO many official articles that it would "bog down" the regular forum.
 
I liked having a mix of official stuff and silly/user generated content. Both are awesome in their own ways and having them in the same place showed that off.
 
But... that's just my opinion.
 
 

Since we're giving opinions here, my personal opinion is that I liked it better before the Twins Daily Articles got their own forum. I understand why it was done, but I feel like it has lessened potential traffic and interaction for both TD Official Writers as well as regular posters. I don't feel like there are SO many official articles that it would "bog down" the regular forum.
 
I liked having a mix of official stuff and silly/user generated content. Both are awesome in their own ways and having them in the same place showed that off.
 
But... that's just my opinion.
 
 

I came here to rant but I didn't know there was going to be a DIFFERENT rant. Geez.
 
OK. The schedule.
 
I know this is like point #15000 of why baseball is killing itself. But these early season start times are just so stupid. In the entire first 4 weeks of the season we have 2.... TWO (!) games that start at 6pm or 7pm and one of them was on a Saturday when it doesn't matter.
 
Every other sport relies on the rhythm of it's schedule. Baseball seem to downright relish the randomness of its first month... just when fans should be getting into the rhythm of the season. 
 
I know. I know. We can cite a couple reasons... cold weather.... opening day.... blah blah blah. It's idiotic. Your sport is starving for eyeballs and you can't figure out a way to get your sport on TV at times when the most people can watch it? Get a clue, baseball. Figure it out.
 
 

That would actually be a savage bargaining chip....
 
"Oh Bally Sports North, you're having problems with your streaming negotiations? Well we're going to just play day games until you figure it out. Talk soon!"

That would actually be a savage bargaining chip....
 
"Oh Bally Sports North, you're having problems with your streaming negotiations? Well we're going to just play day games until you figure it out. Talk soon!"

I came here to rant but I didn't know there was going to be a DIFFERENT rant. Geez.
 
OK. The schedule.
 
I know this is like point #15000 of why baseball is killing itself. But these early season start times are just so stupid. In the entire first 4 weeks of the season we have 2.... TWO (!) games that start at 6pm or 7pm and one of them was on a Saturday when it doesn't matter.
 
Every other sport relies on the rhythm of it's schedule. Baseball seem to downright relish the randomness of its first month... just when fans should be getting into the rhythm of the season. 
 
I know. I know. We can cite a couple reasons... cold weather.... opening day.... blah blah blah. It's idiotic. Your sport is starving for eyeballs and you can't figure out a way to get your sport on TV at times when the most people can watch it? Get a clue, baseball. Figure it out.
 
 

That would actually be a savage bargaining chip....
 
"Oh Bally Sports North, you're having problems with your streaming negotiations? Well we're going to just play day games until you figure it out. Talk soon!"

Twins fans: Man these guys are terrible from the 8th inning on
 
Twins: oh man, have we got a solution for you

Twins fans: Man these guys are terrible from the 8th inning on
 
Twins: oh man, have we got a solution for you

This is a difficult precedent to come back from. That doesn’t mean it’s a bad precedent, but it definitely is one. It’s nearly impossible for the Twins to play a baseball game the day after the next time a MN law enforcement officer gets killed in the line of duty. Not because those two events are similar, but because they are inherently linked. And maybe they shouldn’t play in that case, but as a poster said above, you can’t cancel a game every time there’s an injustice or tragedy (edited to add: or maybe you can... we’ve just had a relative lot recently) and who becomes the arbiter of that.

Will do

When I hear that, all I can think is... "we were hoping things would cool down, but they didn't."

If at 8am, after consulting literally nobody the Twins would have said "out of respect for the tragic events.... the game is postponed." And they could've told anyone with a problem with that to pound sand.
 
THAT would have been a statement.

I don't understand the "as early as possible" part of your post. If they did it for the reason they said, then what changed between 7am and 1:30pm?
 
Don't get me wrong, I support the postponement. I just think they really screwed up by waiting until the last minute, when most of the fans were already there, ready to see a baseball game. 

I don't understand the "as early as possible" part of your post. If they did it for the reason they said, then what changed between 7am and 1:30pm?
 
Don't get me wrong, I support the postponement. I just think they really screwed up by waiting until the last minute, when most of the fans were already there, ready to see a baseball game. 

I was skeptical that Wakefield had been an All Star, so I looked. Sure enough, he was an all star in 2009. His season-long stats didn't jump off the page, so I figured he had a really good first half. Nope. In fact, he barely played after the all star break.
 
ERA: mid 4s
K: 5.0K/9
WHIP: 1.44
ERA+: League Average
 
Record... yep. This is why. 11-3 in the first half
 
Tim freaking Wakefield... All Star. What a world.
 
 
 

I wonder if part of the issue was that his employer wasn't known until early Feb. Tough to get paperwork started when "EMPLOYER" is a field that you can't fill out.

Correct. Got caught with weed at customs and basically got blackballed from entering the country after that. This has been reported by reliable sources, not just amjgt on Twins Daily

I'd be curious to see the analytics of balls in play to LF vs RF. Line drives vs fly balls, etc.

I'll be honest, to me, LF vs RF is a horse a piece. I know there are subtle reasons why you would play a certain guy in one place rather than the other, but it seems very similar.
 
So, I'll ask a question. If Buxton, Kepler and Kirilloff has never played at Target Field or for the Twins and you were starting from scratch, who would play where?
 
Buxton, obviously in CF, but my gut tells me it would be Kepler in LF. He's a better defender than Kirilloff (probably), and I assume over the course of a season, more balls get hit to LF than RF, so why not maximize your defensive strength? Do we know how AK's arm is? I've always thought of Kepler's arm as just fine, but if AK's got a noodle, then maybe he'd be better in LF.

I'm curious to see if that adjusts over the next handful of years because of the geographic realignment of MiLB