Seansy

Lee is as close to a “can’t miss” prospect as the Twins have had in several years - son of a coach, high baseball acumen, raked at every level with both power and OBP, and plenty good in the field. Baseball flows through this kid’s veins.
I can’t wait to cheer for this kid and tune in to watch every one of his ABs.

Didn’t know that about Gibson. Great post - enjoyed the recap on Kiriloff.
Here’s hoping this surgery works for Alex’s sake; it must be incredibly sad and frustrating for him not see his potential being hit despite all the hard work. We’re pulling for you Alex!

I mean, you could just, not read it

Please don't waste our time with these.

When older players are on the last year of their deal it is prudent to either trade them or extend them depending on how the team thinks the players are valued and how the team will perform in the coming year. Given that the team thinks they can compete in a weak AL Central I don't think they trade anyone during the offseason besides Max. I think extending Mahle makes sense given his youth but Gray might also be amendable to adding on 2 years to his deal. It's hard to say though given the crazy amount of spending this offseason if players will want to forgo FA next year but he seems like the type of person to favor stability over uncertainty. Beyond those 2 I think Pagan is addition by subtraction and gives other players in the system a chance to contribute and get experience with the big league club. Kenta is a possible trade candidate but only midseason imo, coming off a major injury he won't have much value. If the team sucks they can deal him to a contender if the team is competitive they can hold on to him and see about resigning him. Polanco is probably also a midseason trade candidate to give other guys like Austin Martin and Julien a chance to succeed in AAA before being promoted. Just like Kenta he can be dealt or held onto based on the team's performance. I think the Twins should also add a reliever or 2 in FA on a 1 year or 1 year + option deal to help shore up the BP after dumping Pagan to have available at the trade deadline like Fulmer and Phelps.

When older players are on the last year of their deal it is prudent to either trade them or extend them depending on how the team thinks the players are valued and how the team will perform in the coming year. Given that the team thinks they can compete in a weak AL Central I don't think they trade anyone during the offseason besides Max. I think extending Mahle makes sense given his youth but Gray might also be amendable to adding on 2 years to his deal. It's hard to say though given the crazy amount of spending this offseason if players will want to forgo FA next year but he seems like the type of person to favor stability over uncertainty. Beyond those 2 I think Pagan is addition by subtraction and gives other players in the system a chance to contribute and get experience with the big league club. Kenta is a possible trade candidate but only midseason imo, coming off a major injury he won't have much value. If the team sucks they can deal him to a contender if the team is competitive they can hold on to him and see about resigning him. Polanco is probably also a midseason trade candidate to give other guys like Austin Martin and Julien a chance to succeed in AAA before being promoted. Just like Kenta he can be dealt or held onto based on the team's performance. I think the Twins should also add a reliever or 2 in FA on a 1 year or 1 year + option deal to help shore up the BP after dumping Pagan to have available at the trade deadline like Fulmer and Phelps.

Defensive metrics have improved over time but they are definitely less reliable than offense ones. Rosie definitely fell off defensively in 2019 but bounced back after that so I think it really was the injury that hurt him most.

I was going off fWAR which shows a drop from 4.0 (a career high) to 0.9. Eddie had giant drops in both offensive and defensive production that year. You may recall he was playing with a hurt ankle (or some other injury in that area). Teams mostly didn't run on him due to his strong arm but his range was awful (likely due to the injury). His OPS was ~ the same from 2018-2019 but you have to remember that was the juiced ball year where offense was up across baseball. Having the same OPS actually dings him for not improving his numbers like the rest of the league. This explains his wRC+ dropping from 114 to 104. He went from good offense/mediocre defense to average offense (for a corner OF)/abysmal defender.
 
He had a magical postseason and a great end of the season with the Braves but he had a .397 OPS in the first half of the year after they cut him! Nobody claimed him off waivers! He was awful last year too!
Their career OPS comparison is .767 for Rosario and .744 for Kepler. The difference in value is in their defense.

I was going off fWAR which shows a drop from 4.0 (a career high) to 0.9. Eddie had giant drops in both offensive and defensive production that year. You may recall he was playing with a hurt ankle (or some other injury in that area). Teams mostly didn't run on him due to his strong arm but his range was awful (likely due to the injury). His OPS was ~ the same from 2018-2019 but you have to remember that was the juiced ball year where offense was up across baseball. Having the same OPS actually dings him for not improving his numbers like the rest of the league. This explains his wRC+ dropping from 114 to 104. He went from good offense/mediocre defense to average offense (for a corner OF)/abysmal defender.
 
He had a magical postseason and a great end of the season with the Braves but he had a .397 OPS in the first half of the year after they cut him! Nobody claimed him off waivers! He was awful last year too!
Their career OPS comparison is .767 for Rosario and .744 for Kepler. The difference in value is in their defense.

Max has always provided at least 2 WAR every year since he became a regular in 2016. Outside of 2019 (3.8) he has never eclipsed 2.5 WAR (2020 could of extrapolated to over 3 WAR but with health who knows how many games he plays *shrug*). 

1 WAR = ~8M dollar. His salary is 8.5M this year and 10M next year. The option will get picked up. Max has surplus value relative to his contract. If he is part of a deal for some kind of impact pitcher I am fine trading him but the number of people acting like he's just a salary dump at this point is absurd.

I think Larnach should be penciled into 1 corner OF spot but with Wallner's poor defense and very high K% I am concerned about his adjustment to MLB pitching. I think he could use some more time in AAA to work on his defense and his swing. He should be depth at AAA in case of an injury to Max or Larnach rather than starting the year with the team. As Matt correctly notes, Larnach has struggled to stay healthy lately so having a good depth option at AAA makes more sense than plugging in Gordon to start if an injury happens. I would hold onto Max barring some trade proposal.

I think Nick has the right structure in place for what the contract looks like but it is missing 1 key piece to ensure it is enough to win the bidding.
 
Deferrals.
 
If Correa is dead set on beating Lindor's deal you might need to kick in an extra 2M a year in deferred money for X number of years to exceed Lindor's guarantee.
Personally, my preference for big contracts would lean towards position players just because of the reduced chance of career altering injuries compared to pitchers. Nothing is guaranteed but as long as we are doing a crazy big deal investing in a great player it might as well be a great up the middle player.

Ugh, this accidentally posted before I finished. How do I delete this?

C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) SS: Carlos Correa ($35.1M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Backup C: Omar Narvaez ($5.0M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) Payroll is 9.57% under budget

Solid list. Appreciate the write up. I assume when you refer to a role in '23 you mean they start figuring into the Twins' plans as prospects? No way they debut with the big-league club next year.

Solid list. Appreciate the write up. I assume when you refer to a role in '23 you mean they start figuring into the Twins' plans as prospects? No way they debut with the big-league club next year.

Good article Ted. I agree 100%.

They tried hard for Darvish. For every Scherzer that continues on pitching well for a new team there seems to be the Zimmermans, Corbins and Mad Bum who diminish. The successes are easily remembered, the failures not so much 

I know it's Halloween but there's no need to frighten the children 

Good article. Worth remembering that most prospects either never make The Show or just get a brief cup of coffee. Even top prospects frequently don't pan out.

Good article. Worth remembering that most prospects either never make The Show or just get a brief cup of coffee. Even top prospects frequently don't pan out.

Good article. Worth remembering that most prospects either never make The Show or just get a brief cup of coffee. Even top prospects frequently don't pan out.

Good article. Worth remembering that most prospects either never make The Show or just get a brief cup of coffee. Even top prospects frequently don't pan out.

No, they sold high on Berrios. They'd be selling low on Mahle and Maeda.

I'm really frustrated about this FO. We needed BP guys and they DIDN'T EVEN TRY to get Astudillo.
Can't be serious about contending. This FO is a joke.

Excellent work! Appreciate the time put into it. After the first 2 picks this was an easy A+ draft regardless of what came next. The VT shortstop is interesting to me given he outproduced Gavin Cross when they played together.  Hopefully some other guys also end up becoming contributors too.