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Seansy

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  1. Like
    Seansy got a reaction from cjm0926 in My 2022 Offseason Blueprint, Round 2: Manaea, Iglesias   
    No way Stroman takes 4/80 after what Gausman and Ray signed for. He will want a MINIMUM of 5/100 and it will likely take much more per year to sign him given his durability and longer track record of above average production than Gausman or Ray.
    Otherwise it is a pretty solid plan!
  2. Like
    Seansy reacted to annismark in Top 30 Prospects - Summer 2021 Update   
    I'm curious, Is Moran considered a prospect or not.   His results seem pretty good compared to some on the list. 
  3. Like
    Seansy got a reaction from mikelink45 in ESPN - Roto fantasy rankings for the Twins   
    Fantasy baseball does not equal real baseball.

    Cruz and Rosario are rated highly for fantasy baseball because they hit 3 and 4 on a good offense so they rack up lots of RBIs.
     
    The more important thing to look at is the OPS (on base plus slugging percentage) of the player compared to the average for their position as well as how good they are defensively. Rosario rates about average offensively for a LF and is generally considered below average defensively despite a strong arm because of lots of wild bad throws and less range than average. He also hurts the team on the basepaths with how often he gets thrown out with boneheaded baserunning decisions. 

    The most similar player to Eddie statistically is Corey Dickerson, he's literally the most similar player on baseball reference, and Dickerson is a better career hitter and generally regarded as a better fielder. As a free agent last offseason Dickerson signed a 2 year 17.5M deal with the Marlins. Eddie is projected to get ~10-13 million in arbitration this year depending on how arbitration works with the shortened season. Given how little Dickerson got as a FA last year with NO COVID revenue issues as a somewhat better player to Eddie and the fact that the Twins think Kirilloff is ready to play on just a minimum salary for 600k, it makes sense for the Twins to get rid of Eddie to save that money to spend elsewhere. Since Dickerson got less than Eddie will make in arbitration this year and most teams are acting strapped for cash, very few teams will be interested in trading for Eddie when they know the Twins will almost assuredly non tender him and they can sign him for his "true market value" of 5-7 million instead.

    I hope this explains why most outside observers assume the Twins will non tender Rosario.
     
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dickeco01.shtml
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rosared01.shtml
  4. Like
    Seansy got a reaction from DocBauer in My Twins 2020-21 Offseason Priorities   
    I agree with your overview. I think the biggest thing the Twins need to do is find the good value moves they have had recently like Thielbar, Wisler, Dobnak, etc to help with filling out the rotation and BP so they can keep Cruz for 1 year. If Cruz gets a 2 year deal somewhere else (like the White Sox) you let him walk and they can replace his bat with someone like Brantley or maybe Grossman. 

    The market seems like it will be really depressed given all of the options being declined so I think the cost to acquire interesting bounce back candidates like Kluber or undervalued guys like Smyley and Clippard will go a long way to filling out the roster as the team waits for their top prospects to matriculate through the system. Outside of bringing back Clippard and tendering Rogers I don't think the Twins need to spend a lot of money on the BP like a lot of other teams.

    Outside of spending big on a bat like Cruz the other big issue for me is getting a quality "10th" man to cover for Polanco and Donaldson given their injury history like Iglesias or Hernandez. I would spend most of my FA money on those two roster spots, Clippard, and a couple interesting bounceback/undervalued guys not on this year's team.
  5. Like
    Seansy got a reaction from TopGunn#22 in My Twins 2020-21 Offseason Priorities   
    I agree with your overview. I think the biggest thing the Twins need to do is find the good value moves they have had recently like Thielbar, Wisler, Dobnak, etc to help with filling out the rotation and BP so they can keep Cruz for 1 year. If Cruz gets a 2 year deal somewhere else (like the White Sox) you let him walk and they can replace his bat with someone like Brantley or maybe Grossman. 

    The market seems like it will be really depressed given all of the options being declined so I think the cost to acquire interesting bounce back candidates like Kluber or undervalued guys like Smyley and Clippard will go a long way to filling out the roster as the team waits for their top prospects to matriculate through the system. Outside of bringing back Clippard and tendering Rogers I don't think the Twins need to spend a lot of money on the BP like a lot of other teams.

    Outside of spending big on a bat like Cruz the other big issue for me is getting a quality "10th" man to cover for Polanco and Donaldson given their injury history like Iglesias or Hernandez. I would spend most of my FA money on those two roster spots, Clippard, and a couple interesting bounceback/undervalued guys not on this year's team.
  6. Like
    Seansy got a reaction from Nate Palmer in My Twins 2020-21 Offseason Priorities   
    I agree with your overview. I think the biggest thing the Twins need to do is find the good value moves they have had recently like Thielbar, Wisler, Dobnak, etc to help with filling out the rotation and BP so they can keep Cruz for 1 year. If Cruz gets a 2 year deal somewhere else (like the White Sox) you let him walk and they can replace his bat with someone like Brantley or maybe Grossman. 

    The market seems like it will be really depressed given all of the options being declined so I think the cost to acquire interesting bounce back candidates like Kluber or undervalued guys like Smyley and Clippard will go a long way to filling out the roster as the team waits for their top prospects to matriculate through the system. Outside of bringing back Clippard and tendering Rogers I don't think the Twins need to spend a lot of money on the BP like a lot of other teams.

    Outside of spending big on a bat like Cruz the other big issue for me is getting a quality "10th" man to cover for Polanco and Donaldson given their injury history like Iglesias or Hernandez. I would spend most of my FA money on those two roster spots, Clippard, and a couple interesting bounceback/undervalued guys not on this year's team.
  7. Like
    Seansy got a reaction from tarheeltwinsfan in From Contender to Champion: my plan for the 2020 Minnesota Twins   
    I really like your blue print. I would do the same thing except maybe a couple of things differently.
     
    1 quick correction. Marwin is only owed 9 million this year. They paid him 12 million for 2019.

    I don't want EE at 1B for 14 million for 2 years. People forget Cron had a 900 OPS before the thumb injury, better than EE, better defense at 1B, and on a 1 year deal for half as much. Stick with Cron until one of the kids are ready.
     
    I would use that money saved on EE and the correction in Marwin's salary to bring back Pineda and Castro. Castro is good defensively and as a LHH he complements Garver perfectly. Willians can be a 3rd catcher for the 26th spot still for Garver to PH on days off in close games and added versatility.

    Pineda on a 1 or 2 year deal at 7 or 8 million AAV pushes back Dobnak/Smeltzer to the 6th spot when an injury inevitably happens and he looked really good before the suspension.
     
    I would also keep Thorpe as a starter in AAA and look at Diekman or Pomeranz as a second lefty BP guy.
     
    This would likely bump up the payroll to ~$155 million assuming the Twins actually make all of these moves but the upgrades are well worth the cost IMO

     
  8. Like
    Seansy got a reaction from PSzalapski in From Contender to Champion: my plan for the 2020 Minnesota Twins   
    I really like your blue print. I would do the same thing except maybe a couple of things differently.
     
    1 quick correction. Marwin is only owed 9 million this year. They paid him 12 million for 2019.

    I don't want EE at 1B for 14 million for 2 years. People forget Cron had a 900 OPS before the thumb injury, better than EE, better defense at 1B, and on a 1 year deal for half as much. Stick with Cron until one of the kids are ready.
     
    I would use that money saved on EE and the correction in Marwin's salary to bring back Pineda and Castro. Castro is good defensively and as a LHH he complements Garver perfectly. Willians can be a 3rd catcher for the 26th spot still for Garver to PH on days off in close games and added versatility.

    Pineda on a 1 or 2 year deal at 7 or 8 million AAV pushes back Dobnak/Smeltzer to the 6th spot when an injury inevitably happens and he looked really good before the suspension.
     
    I would also keep Thorpe as a starter in AAA and look at Diekman or Pomeranz as a second lefty BP guy.
     
    This would likely bump up the payroll to ~$155 million assuming the Twins actually make all of these moves but the upgrades are well worth the cost IMO

     
  9. Like
    Seansy got a reaction from LA VIkes Fan in From Contender to Champion: my plan for the 2020 Minnesota Twins   
    I really like your blue print. I would do the same thing except maybe a couple of things differently.
     
    1 quick correction. Marwin is only owed 9 million this year. They paid him 12 million for 2019.

    I don't want EE at 1B for 14 million for 2 years. People forget Cron had a 900 OPS before the thumb injury, better than EE, better defense at 1B, and on a 1 year deal for half as much. Stick with Cron until one of the kids are ready.
     
    I would use that money saved on EE and the correction in Marwin's salary to bring back Pineda and Castro. Castro is good defensively and as a LHH he complements Garver perfectly. Willians can be a 3rd catcher for the 26th spot still for Garver to PH on days off in close games and added versatility.

    Pineda on a 1 or 2 year deal at 7 or 8 million AAV pushes back Dobnak/Smeltzer to the 6th spot when an injury inevitably happens and he looked really good before the suspension.
     
    I would also keep Thorpe as a starter in AAA and look at Diekman or Pomeranz as a second lefty BP guy.
     
    This would likely bump up the payroll to ~$155 million assuming the Twins actually make all of these moves but the upgrades are well worth the cost IMO

     
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