Cody Pirkl

FWIW, I'd give Sands opportunities over Winder at this point in one inning stints. He has a sub 2.00 ERA in Triple-A with a near 40% K rate. For whatever reason it seems they prefer the guy who got absolutely shelled at the same level.

FWIW, I'd give Sands opportunities over Winder at this point in one inning stints. He has a sub 2.00 ERA in Triple-A with a near 40% K rate. For whatever reason it seems they prefer the guy who got absolutely shelled at the same level.

In predictable fashion, this article was written hours before Joey Gallo's first four-hit game since May 2019. Does one game undo the damage Gallo has done to the lineup for the last three months?
Image courtesy of Mitch Stringer, USA Today This winter the Twins “got their guy”, signing Joey Gallo to a one-year $11 million deal. As we’ve seen so many times, the veteran they brought in is likely making the last stop of his career in Minnesota, and they refuse to cut bait.
Signing Joey Gallo was always a risky move, but an understandable one. Though the thought of parting with another left-handed bat to relieve the logjam never came to fruition, there was potential for a big bounce back. It hasn’t happened as we march into August, and the Twins appear content giving an out away every time through the lineup for the rest of the season as they desperately hope for the deal to not look like a complete flop.
The stars seemingly aligned for Joey Gallo at the trade deadline. He was the most apparent cut candidate had they made an offensive addition, but luckily for Gallo, they did absolutely nothing. It’s possible he’d have survived any additions because of his price tag and the Twins' tendencies to hold onto veterans too long, but we’ll never know for sure.
Things have gotten even better for Gallo since, as Alex Kirilloff and Donovan Solano have both hit the injured list. As the only remaining player who’s played a significant amount of first base this season, surely they can’t part with Gallo now, right?
It should be simple: No amount of context at this point justifies Joey Gallo sticking to a competitive team’s roster. The hits have come less and less, naturally leading to fewer homers to make up for the lack of anything else. More importantly for the team on pace to break the all-time strikeout record, Gallo’s whiffs have become insurmountable. 
The Twins seem to value his defense at first base. He’s been exactly neutral with 0 Defensive Runs Saved, and 0 Outs Above Average. This is hardly a high bar to clear, and his ability to stand at first base should not justify a roster spot. Many have called for players such as Edouard Julien to diversify their defensive profiles and work some first base in, but the Twins' refusal to date leaves them with the current result.
So what should the Twins do exactly? Anything else. In the past, the Twins keeping players such as Matt Wallner down was justified by the possibility that they’d perform worse than the incumbents. Unless we think whoever is called up can somehow undershoot a .130ish batting average and strike out more than half the time, that really shouldn’t be a concern here. 
The Twins' best players this season have been rookies called up from St. Paul. Right now Chris Williams plays a lot of first base for the Saints. He’s slashing .254/.371/.540 with 19 homers in Triple-A. There may not be much upside there at age 26, but it’s reached a point where it’s worth giving it a try. Anthony Prato has some first-base experience as well and has a 1.093 OPS. If the Twins are comfortable at all with him at first, the move should be a no-brainer. Both players perform better against lefties than righties, but so has Gallo this season.
The first base depth may take a hit, but the Twins still have Kyle Farmer and Christian Vazquez with first-base experience, and they felt good enough about Solano to keep him off the IL. They have people who are technically capable of playing the position, which has seemingly been enough to justify Gallo keeping his roster spot for months now.
There’s no rebound on the horizon for Joey Gallo. He’s averaging about one hit per week, and the walks aren’t valuable enough to justify his near everyday playing time. He’s rarely even putting balls over the fence anymore. Despite the remaining strength of schedule, the Twins are in a dogfight for the division, as evidenced by their 1-6 record against Detroit and Kansas City since the break. The time has come and gone to blindly trust the veterans. In the case of Joey Gallo, there are no worse options. Do you agree?

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Much of the takeaway from the Twins lack of trade deadline action rightfully revolves around the current team and the holes that remain. What it may say about the front office long-term is also a worthwhile consideration.
Image courtesy of John Bonnes, Twins Daily Many consider the overall body of work by the current front office as a success. It’s easy to compare to the Terry Ryan regime and agree that they’re in a much better place now. That being said, it’s fair to wonder whether their resume undoubtedly makes them the men for the job. This deadline may suggest that ownership, the people who matter, are content.
The Falvey regime has had its ups and down, and despite their public desire to build a sustainable winner, the Twins have been anything but. After a surprise playoff appearance in 2017, they understandably finished six games under .500 the following season. 2019 appeared to be the year that years of building infrastructure and a farm system came together. Winning 101 games and setting the all-time home run record, a playoff series sweep was disappointing, but at least the Twins appeared to have a core in place for the long haul. In a shortened 2020, the Twins again made the playoffs only to be swept out by the sub-.500 Astros at home.
At no point did the Twins front office express a step back in their attempts to contend between the plans they provided publicly and the moves they made. Still, they missed the playoffs in one of the softest divisions in history both in 2021 and 2022. There were routinely multiple teams missing the playoffs altogether from other divisions who would have run away with the AL Central, but the Twins couldn’t even finish in second place.
You’d think this would cause tensions to begin rising within ownership, only to be made worse by a 2023 squad that has always felt mediocre and incomplete. The Twins entered the trade deadline with only a one-game lead on Cleveland. The needs were obvious and relatively cheap, and still, they chose to do nothing aside from part with Jorge Lopez, one of the holdovers from 2022's disastrous trade deadline.
The Twins still have the second easiest remaining schedule in baseball, whereas Cleveland is about middle of the pack. It’s a big reason the Twins playoff odds remain near 80% despite their minuscule lead. Making matters even more interesting is Cleveland’s apparent plan at the deadline aiming more toward the future by parting with their most effective starter. They’re begging the Twins to take the division.
It’s odd then that the front office chose not to address any of their most obvious needs between a bullpen that’s wearing down and the worst OPS against left-handed pitching in baseball. The Twins may very well still win the division, though it’s far from a done deal given how this team has played to date. We’ll all surely continue to watch in hopes of another division title, but the operation at the deadline should cause long-term concern, as it’s hard to see the front office passing on any upgrades if their jobs aren’t guaranteed.
It was true before, and even more so now that Cleveland effectively sold: The Twins should not continue to employ this front office if they miss the playoffs for the third straight year. The bar to clear has never been lower, and the Twins simply should not be allowed to miss the mark for a third consecutive time. With even minor upgrades at the deadline, they could have insulated their division title, but they declined to do so riding a five-game losing streak and having just been swept by the Kansas City Royals. Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, and company simply don’t seem to have any sense of urgency after two-plus years of mediocrity, and that should be a bright red flag.
They ignored obvious holes this offseason, and they doubled down on this flawed roster at the deadline even as Brock Stewart’s return to the bullpen and Alex Kirilloff’s return to the lineup became serious question marks. It’s clear they think they know better than anyone else when it comes to building a baseball team despite the lack of historical evidence, and it’s worth wondering whether this deadline’s inaction shows that ownership isn’t close to making a change. That should not be the case.

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It’s hard to look at just a few stats to summarize a team’s season considering how many layers there are to the game of baseball, but the Twins have made it easier than usual. Just a handful of them paints a pretty vivid picture of the Twins season.
Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports It's always felt like the Twins were being held back, potentially by themselves, in questionable ways. Pythagorean record agrees that the Twins should be at least a bit better, but they repeatedly fail to pick up any momentum for whatever reason. A few stats tell the story of why this might be.
.657 OPS Against Left-Handed Pitchers
That's good for 21% below league average by OPS+ against southpaws. Simply facing a left-handed pitcher of any caliber throws any momentum off course. It makes no sense from Buxton's .627 OPS against lefties to Kyle Farmer (.691 OPS) and Carlos Correa (.700 OPS) putting up below-league-average lines in these matchups. It continues to hamper an offense that has struggled overall.
It doesn't help that the Twins' best hitters, such as Edouard Julien and Alex Kirilloff are left-handed. Still, the team's continued struggles from their right-handed hitters defy decades of matchup data and years of data these players have accumulated in their careers. Like much of the 2023 Twins season, the team's stats against left-handed pitching are headache-inducing.
Carlos Correa's .691 OPS
Can blame be directed at one single player on a disappointing baseball team? Surely not. If it could, Carlos Correa would be the #1 candidate for the Twins. They completed the Hail Mary this winter by waiting out free agency, hoping the former cornerstone shortstop would find his way back to Minnesota. He made $32m in 2023 and is expected to be a key cog in the offensive machine. Instead, Correa has caused an endless series of misfires.
His OPS places him comfortably below average offensively, and despite his still stellar shortstop defense, by fWAR, Correa is tied for 6th highest on the team with Max Kepler and Michael A. Taylor with 0.9. His assumed backup, Kyle Farmer, has been more valuable overall by this measure despite playing in 19 fewer games. Correa has crippled the offense in the heart of the lineup, bouncing into a league-leading 20 double plays and showing that he can be beaten by fastballs repeatedly. So far, the Twins Dior-level investment has brought them Axe Chocolate Body Spray level returns (gross).
Sonny Gray's 4-4 Record
On Thursday evening, Sonny Gray earned his first win since April 30. Within this stretch are a few noteworthy numbers. Gray's 3.32 ERA earned him an all-star game nod and has him on pace for his first 4+ fWAR season since 2019 in Cincinnati. Despite his inconsistencies sometimes, he's pitching at peak levels for his career. Such a performance should have a pitcher on pace for 12-15 wins, at the very least, but not Sonny.
In St. Louis, the Twins spotted Gray five runs of cushion, good for 9% of the run support he's received in 21 starts this season. His 4 wins symbolize the potent pitching performances the Twins squandered during the first half of the season by completely no-showing on offense. The Twins have lost 15 games this season when allowing three runs or fewer, the most in baseball. While win/loss records have become a measurement of the past, Gray's record in relation to the rest of his numbers shows where things have gone wrong for the Twins.
We'll never know why 2023 has gone how it has, but inconsistency has been the name of the game for the Twins. Here's hoping they can outlast the Cleveland Guardians, who have given them every opportunity to take home a division title. There will always be some head-scratching stats on the record for 2023, and these are just a few of them.

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Much of the takeaway from the Twins lack of trade deadline action rightfully revolves around the current team and the holes that remain. What it may say about the front office long-term is also a worthwhile consideration.
Image courtesy of John Bonnes, Twins Daily Many consider the overall body of work by the current front office as a success. It’s easy to compare to the Terry Ryan regime and agree that they’re in a much better place now. That being said, it’s fair to wonder whether their resume undoubtedly makes them the men for the job. This deadline may suggest that ownership, the people who matter, are content.
The Falvey regime has had its ups and down, and despite their public desire to build a sustainable winner, the Twins have been anything but. After a surprise playoff appearance in 2017, they understandably finished six games under .500 the following season. 2019 appeared to be the year that years of building infrastructure and a farm system came together. Winning 101 games and setting the all-time home run record, a playoff series sweep was disappointing, but at least the Twins appeared to have a core in place for the long haul. In a shortened 2020, the Twins again made the playoffs only to be swept out by the sub-.500 Astros at home.
At no point did the Twins front office express a step back in their attempts to contend between the plans they provided publicly and the moves they made. Still, they missed the playoffs in one of the softest divisions in history both in 2021 and 2022. There were routinely multiple teams missing the playoffs altogether from other divisions who would have run away with the AL Central, but the Twins couldn’t even finish in second place.
You’d think this would cause tensions to begin rising within ownership, only to be made worse by a 2023 squad that has always felt mediocre and incomplete. The Twins entered the trade deadline with only a one-game lead on Cleveland. The needs were obvious and relatively cheap, and still, they chose to do nothing aside from part with Jorge Lopez, one of the holdovers from 2022's disastrous trade deadline.
The Twins still have the second easiest remaining schedule in baseball, whereas Cleveland is about middle of the pack. It’s a big reason the Twins playoff odds remain near 80% despite their minuscule lead. Making matters even more interesting is Cleveland’s apparent plan at the deadline aiming more toward the future by parting with their most effective starter. They’re begging the Twins to take the division.
It’s odd then that the front office chose not to address any of their most obvious needs between a bullpen that’s wearing down and the worst OPS against left-handed pitching in baseball. The Twins may very well still win the division, though it’s far from a done deal given how this team has played to date. We’ll all surely continue to watch in hopes of another division title, but the operation at the deadline should cause long-term concern, as it’s hard to see the front office passing on any upgrades if their jobs aren’t guaranteed.
It was true before, and even more so now that Cleveland effectively sold: The Twins should not continue to employ this front office if they miss the playoffs for the third straight year. The bar to clear has never been lower, and the Twins simply should not be allowed to miss the mark for a third consecutive time. With even minor upgrades at the deadline, they could have insulated their division title, but they declined to do so riding a five-game losing streak and having just been swept by the Kansas City Royals. Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, and company simply don’t seem to have any sense of urgency after two-plus years of mediocrity, and that should be a bright red flag.
They ignored obvious holes this offseason, and they doubled down on this flawed roster at the deadline even as Brock Stewart’s return to the bullpen and Alex Kirilloff’s return to the lineup became serious question marks. It’s clear they think they know better than anyone else when it comes to building a baseball team despite the lack of historical evidence, and it’s worth wondering whether this deadline’s inaction shows that ownership isn’t close to making a change. That should not be the case.

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I would be surprised if they brought Paddack back from his second TJ to relieve. The nature of a bullpen arm doesn't fit well with someone who will probably need several days in between outings regardless of the length.

Each of them have great plate discipline and a ton of power. That's a better foundation at the plate than plenty of prospects have, and each comes with 5+ years of control. Are they centerpieces in a trade for someone like Paul Goldschmidt? Absolutely not. Some team could see an opportunity to give them full playing time and maybe make a few changes though, and the years of control afford a lot of ceiling if it pays off. The Twins could likely get someone that helps them for multiple years if they can find a taker.

The Twins have an important part of their lineup on the comeback trail in Jorge Polanco. With Edouard Julien more than holding his own in Polanco’s absence, Byron Buxton should be the loser of playing time when Polanco returns.
Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports We’ve seen the Twins operate on a 1:1 replacement basis this season, sticking to the plan to a fault at times. Previously it was white-hot Matt Wallner sent down for a returning Max Kepler simply because Wallner was the replacement when Kepler hit the IL.
In the case of Jorge Polanco, we saw this play out during his first IL trip with Edouard Julien, who took his place for a brief time, showed some flashes, and was sent back down when Polanco returned. Julien again took Polanco’s spot in the previous, more lengthy injury absence. This time, however, the Twins would be downright foolish to stick to their usual 1:1 trade-off when Polanco returns.
Shipping a second baseman out for a returning second baseman makes sense, but Julien has emerged as one of the key cogs of an underwhelming Twins lineup. The left-hander has slashed .298/.373/.525 on the season, a batting line that places him 49% better than the league-average hitter. His eye at the plate and ability to ambush mistakes are welcome additions to the Twins lineup, and it’s hard to imagine what the offense would be without him at this point. So what can the Twins do? 
Unfortunately, at this point, the answer has become far too obvious that the best-case scenario for the Twins' chances of winning involves Byron Buxton losing in a significant way. The full-time DH is one of the worst offensive regulars in the lineup, a devastating development for the offense.
There were some raising minor issues with Buxton’s change in approach last season making him boom-bust at the plate. This season Buxton has crossed the line where it’s impossible to argue that the bust has completely outweighed the boom. He appears to be completely guessing, taking pitches right down the middle while swinging at others that were never even close to the strike zone. It feels like the only positive potential outcome at this point when Buxton is hitting is for him to guess correctly and pull a ball in the air over the fence. His 31+% strikeout rate is his worst since 2016, and it’s easy to see the change in what he’s trying to do at the plate since 2021. Rest assured, it’s not paying off.
This change in approach may be injury related. We should hope so, as such a change from the multi-dimensional approach Buxton showed in 2021 to what we see now would be an unjustifiable adjustment to make on purpose. At any rate, Byron Buxton is doing the Twins no favors. His wRC+ is approaching Michael A. Taylor who gets negative attention at times for his subpar offense. Unlike Taylor, Buxton is providing nothing defensively, and instead of settling into the nine spot, he’s disrupting the lineup with his constant hitless streaks and non-competitive at-bats coming in the three-hole. So what can the Twins do?
If the Twins are willing to be real with themselves, the Buxton situation can’t continue the way it has. They’re a worse team with him in the lineup over several other options at the moment. When Jorge Polanco returns, they can go in a few different directions. They could send Wallner back down and greatly decrease Buxton’s playing time in favor of Edouard Julien filling the DH spot. Buxton can focus more on physical maintenance and get mental breaks while still cycling into the lineup here and there.
The solution fans have discussed for some time is simply placing Buxton on the IL indefinitely. He may not like it, but there’s no way he’s not dealing with some kind of physical impairment worthy of an IL trip. This would open a roster spot for another player deserving of a shot, such as Matt Wallner or a bat acquired at the deadline. It may not fix anything with Buxton physically, but it at least allows him time to work on things and go on a lengthy rehab assignment to try to get things straightened out. It’s easy to say at this point that it would be a massive boost to the lineup to add Polanco while keeping Julien in Buxton’s stead.
The Byron Buxton situation is officially untenable. Even the highs at this point last for a handful of days and are promptly followed by a week plus of absolutely nothing. The Twins quite simply have too many better options if this is the Byron Buxton they’re going to get. They can no longer ignore what they’re watching on a nightly basis, and his being under contract long-term can no longer trump his actual production when it comes to what spot in the order he hits and more importantly who he plays over. 
When Jorge Polanco returns, it should be at the expense of Byron Buxton, not Edouard Julien. Do you agree?
 

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It's a drop off but here's my thoughts regarding the regular season: If the offense turns it around, they run away with this division with or without Sonny Gray. They have the easiest strength of schedule in baseball remaining.
If the offense doesn't turn it around, I think they're depending more on teams like Cleveland losing than they are on themselves winning, because as we've seen, the offense can be so bad with regularity that prime Randy Johnson could be taking the mound everyday and they're probably still going to hover around .500.
I say go ahead and keep him, my only point is if he's legitimately considering retirement which would wipe out any QO value, just put out some feelers and see if a team is willing to do something silly. I think they have enough rotation depth that their playoff hopes don't sink or swim with Sonny Gray.

Meh, Nationals essentially did it with Strasburg, Scherzer, and Corbin with some low grade starters like Joe Ross mixed in a couple of times. Twins have enough pitching depth to figure out a 4th spot that shouldn't be a big deal.

It's a drop off but here's my thoughts regarding the regular season: If the offense turns it around, they run away with this division with or without Sonny Gray. They have the easiest strength of schedule in baseball remaining.
If the offense doesn't turn it around, I think they're depending more on teams like Cleveland losing than they are on themselves winning, because as we've seen, the offense can be so bad with regularity that prime Randy Johnson could be taking the mound everyday and they're probably still going to hover around .500.
I say go ahead and keep him, my only point is if he's legitimately considering retirement which would wipe out any QO value, just put out some feelers and see if a team is willing to do something silly. I think they have enough rotation depth that their playoff hopes don't sink or swim with Sonny Gray.

It's a drop off but here's my thoughts regarding the regular season: If the offense turns it around, they run away with this division with or without Sonny Gray. They have the easiest strength of schedule in baseball remaining.
If the offense doesn't turn it around, I think they're depending more on teams like Cleveland losing than they are on themselves winning, because as we've seen, the offense can be so bad with regularity that prime Randy Johnson could be taking the mound everyday and they're probably still going to hover around .500.
I say go ahead and keep him, my only point is if he's legitimately considering retirement which would wipe out any QO value, just put out some feelers and see if a team is willing to do something silly. I think they have enough rotation depth that their playoff hopes don't sink or swim with Sonny Gray.

Meh, Nationals essentially did it with Strasburg, Scherzer, and Corbin with some low grade starters like Joe Ross mixed in a couple of times. Twins have enough pitching depth to figure out a 4th spot that shouldn't be a big deal.

It's a drop off but here's my thoughts regarding the regular season: If the offense turns it around, they run away with this division with or without Sonny Gray. They have the easiest strength of schedule in baseball remaining.
If the offense doesn't turn it around, I think they're depending more on teams like Cleveland losing than they are on themselves winning, because as we've seen, the offense can be so bad with regularity that prime Randy Johnson could be taking the mound everyday and they're probably still going to hover around .500.
I say go ahead and keep him, my only point is if he's legitimately considering retirement which would wipe out any QO value, just put out some feelers and see if a team is willing to do something silly. I think they have enough rotation depth that their playoff hopes don't sink or swim with Sonny Gray.

Meh, Nationals essentially did it with Strasburg, Scherzer, and Corbin with some low grade starters like Joe Ross mixed in a couple of times. Twins have enough pitching depth to figure out a 4th spot that shouldn't be a big deal.

FWIW they got a combined 10 IP and 1 ER from Maeda and Berrios in 2020 and still got swept out of the playoffs. Teams usually have 3 playoff starters, which the Twins would still have even without Gray imo.

Meh, Nationals essentially did it with Strasburg, Scherzer, and Corbin with some low grade starters like Joe Ross mixed in a couple of times. Twins have enough pitching depth to figure out a 4th spot that shouldn't be a big deal.

I'd expect the Twins to have more info regarding Gray's comments and a better feel for what he's actually thinking. That's kind of an advantage for them to plan around if that's the case. 

They probably do believe that Larnach and Wallner aren't MLB worthy because at this point the only other explanation is that they don't want to admit they were wrong. The problem for me personally with that is that they believed Kepler and Gallo would be the answers heading into the season and were clearly wrong. I'd say we've reached a point in the season where the risk of these guys coming up and being worse are so low that it doesn't even matter.
The Twins have one of the worst records in baseball dating back to May and two corner outfielders have been very bad while two top prospects rot in Triple-A. The absolute worst case scenario is they come up, perform a little worse than the incumbents, and the bad baseball team gets a little more bad while young players get experience for the future.

I'm the co president of the Max Kepler hater club and I agree, Gallo has probably put himself ahead. The tiebreaker for me is that it appears Gallo is no longer even an average defender.

Larnach and Wallner may very well not be the answer, though it's an easy case to make that both could easily be better than Kepler and Gallo. For as much hate as Larnach gets, he has .3 fWAR to Kepler's .4 in 50 less PAs, and .3 to Gallo's .5 in about 60 less. I was an unabashed Larnach believer to start the year which has receded, but I feel like the perception on him is incredibly low when he probably paces out around the same as Kepler or Gallo through the same amount of PAs, and it comes with the potential payoff of him finding something and being a regular on the team for years to come.
Wallner is the reigning minor league hitter of the year and his main knocks are the strikeout rate and defense. He's lowered his K% significantly in Triple-A which is exactly what the Twins wanted him to do, and he'll almost certainly not strike out as much as Gallo. Gallo also hasn't been a good defender.
At the end of the day, Gallo and Kepler have lowered the bar so far that it doesn't take much confidence to take a leap on a prospect replacing one of them in my opinion. I've seen people say it could be a disaster if they give these guys a chance and they aren't up to the task. If that's what a disaster looks like, what have we been watching so far this year, ya know?
 

They probably do believe that Larnach and Wallner aren't MLB worthy because at this point the only other explanation is that they don't want to admit they were wrong. The problem for me personally with that is that they believed Kepler and Gallo would be the answers heading into the season and were clearly wrong. I'd say we've reached a point in the season where the risk of these guys coming up and being worse are so low that it doesn't even matter.
The Twins have one of the worst records in baseball dating back to May and two corner outfielders have been very bad while two top prospects rot in Triple-A. The absolute worst case scenario is they come up, perform a little worse than the incumbents, and the bad baseball team gets a little more bad while young players get experience for the future.

It's been reported that Kepler has made it known to the Twins that his preference is not to play centerfield FWIW. If it were more of a question of whether he's still capable, I think it would be reported that way. I also can't imagine a scenario where the Twins just think his defense wouldn't be up to snuff there. Nick Gordon played there plenty before getting injured and Willi Castro still starts games there. I'd bet on both of those players being decidedly worse defensively than Max Kepler.

I agree that Buxton and Correa are the main issues but that doesn't give everyone else a pass. Twins offensive production in left field is 23% below league average and in right field is 9% below league average. Unlike center, those are offensive premium positions, and elite defense alone doesn't make a meaningful difference to make up for it. Taylor has been exactly what the Twins wanted and wouldn't be an issue if the players manning offense-first positions did their jobs. 
They can't get rid of Buxton or Correa, but they can get rid of a corner OF. Hell, there are eager replacements that could be around 5+ years after Gallo and Kepler are off the team. It's an easy lever to pull with little downside at this point.