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Andrew Gebo

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Blog Comments posted by Andrew Gebo

  1. If Madison Bumgarner is what it takes to get the Twins deep into the playoffs, I could honestly care less if one of Graterol, Kirrilloff or Lewis never plays for the Twins. 

     

    I think fan bases tend to overvalue and overproject their own prospects and players. I get excited about prospect potential myself and love following the MiLB daily. However, I would get much more excited if there was a real possibility of World Series games being played at Target Field.

     

    I would personally want to see Bumgarner pitch for a couple more months before doing anything.

     

    It's fun watching how well Perez and Odorizzi are pitching right now, but it's way too early to pencil them is as playoff load-bearers at this point.  Also, neither one of them has ever cut open a rattlesnake, rescued digesting rabbits and nursed them back to health.

     

    Don’t get me wrong, I love me some MadBum! Who doesn’t want to see him blowing snot rockets, staring down umpires after a bad call and being an overall badass?

     

    If Perez or Odorizzi regress back to their career normal level of production then the possibility of acquiring Bumgarner becomes very real.

     

    It’s also very likely they can get Bum without giving up Lewis, Kiriloff or Graterol. He turns 30 in August, he’s a free agent after this year and he’s shown signs of not being the same guy he was back in 2014. A player like that doesn’t typically warrant a return of a top 10 overall prospect.

  2. If Buxton can reach his full potential and be the type of player that earned him the title of baseballs #1 overall prospect then Kepler is likely the “worst” OFer on the team. Now, before you get mad at me, that’s not a knock on Kepler. That more so speaks to the overall potential of this teams core.

     

    Kepler, as you outlined in your post, is showing signs of breaking out and becoming a very good player. It would be hard to argue that an OF consisting of Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler is anything but one of, if not the best OF in baseball.

     

    His low BABIP is head scratching for sure. The only theory I can think of is that defensive shifts are impacting his BABIP. Balls hit up the middle or to the pull side are being turned into outs more frequently due in large part to the shifts. There could be other factors involved but defensive shifting likely plays a role in his low BABIP.

  3. It's only May 9th and there is a lot of time not only for the season, but until the deadline. At the moment, we are in a bit if a fantasy/projection vacuum. That being said, I agree with your post 100%.

    With one exception.

    Gibson is only the #4 SP because there was where he was slotted to buy him some time to build up endurance and feel. No matter how well Perez and Odorizzi have done...and I hope they keep it up, or pitch at least close...I dont feel Gibson is a #4 SP at all.

    And I agree on Pineda as well. I believe he just needs a little more time to build up endurance and get his feel back in his first full season from surgery. History has shown us this, often with positive results. And Rocco has been nursing him a bit, which is smart.

    Rotation depth is scary at the moment. But Littell is warming up. Gonsalves hasn't pitched yet, which is troubling. Thorpe started slow, exploded, then had a clunker. How will he respond next time out is important. Smeltzer looks like a guy who suddenly found himself. A month and a half from now, the depth situation could look entirely different!

    But the pen is where at least one move needs to be made, no matter how solid/decent it has largely performed thus far. I am with you on the core four. But unless Romero can harness his great stuff the next month or so, or Reed suddenly surprise and become his old self, we need another quality arm that can be relied on. But we also need a 2nd lefty. Can Mejia take this time to accept his role and just trust his stuff and make a difference? Can Moya or Vasquez prove they can fill a viable role?

    I also don't want to overpay for help, but there is enough system depth to make at least one good move to deepen the pen without mortgaging anything. (Two moves may be needed).

    How much you give up, obviously, depends not only who is added, but how much remaining control is available. Here's hoping at least one of the aforementioned steps forward to make a difference.

     

    You’re absolutely right that Gibson being the #4 is more about his health going into the season and less about his ability as a pitcher. I don’t think anyone, Perez included, expected him to be this good. His cutter and 3-4mph increase in fastball velocity seems to be a huge turning point for him, which is great to see. The fact that Gibson is slotted as the #4, regardless of the reason why, just highltits the depth of their rotation.

     

    The rotation lacks household names, other than maybe Berrios but even he’s not a well known name to casual fans of other teams. I think that plays into fans’ perception of the rotation because there’s no Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, etc. type guy. Last note on the rotation, Wes Johnson deserves a lot of credit for their success. He’s clearly figured something out.

     

    The bullpen is going to be tricky. Right now it looks like the reliever market is going to be very limited at the deadline. Simple supply/demand economics would indicate that means any arms that are available will likely demand above market value given the scarcity of the market. I remain optimistic about Romero. He’s certainly struggled with command but he has electric stuff and I think he could develop into a weapon out of the bullpen.

     

    Thanks for reading and let’s keep the good times rollling!

  4. To repsot something I put in another thread - How about one of the SF relievers? Agree on Smith, and Dyson, Vincent and even Melancon may make some sense. The price would be prospects and they need OFs so maybe a Jake Cave plus a prospect deal would do the trick. Cave would immediately start there and upgrade the OF assuming he hits like last year (I'd ignore this year's stats given his very limited and sporadic playing time). Might work for both teams if it was a Cave plus Littel, Mejia or Gonsalves, or maybe Cave plus a lower level prospect with a higher upside than those three guys. I say anyone is fair game except, Lewis, Kirilofff, Graterol, Thorpe, Alcala and maybe Smeltzer. Same with Arizona who also needs OFs. A guy like Andrew Chafin or even Robbie Ray might be available although their "good" relievers by stats are young and probably off limits except for Greg Holland who is definitely off limits.

     

    Thanks for reading!

     

    The only way a trade for Melancon would make sense is if the Giants eat most of his contract and even then I don’t know for 100% but I believe he has full no trade rights. Sam Dyson, Tony Watson, and Will Smith are the more likely candidates from their pen. I’m going to have to disagree with you on Cave, though. I really don’t think the Giants would have much interest in him. Left handed bats (Barry Bonds aside) have not done well in their ballpark.

     

    The Padres also have some intriguing arms in their pen but they’re beginning to look like a potential contender if not this year then very soon so it’s probably unlikely they’re willing to part with any talented bullpen arms.

     

    Overall though I think the reliever market is going to be very limited at the deadline. Outside of the Giants there’s really not many guys who fit the bill in terms of being trade chips.

     

    In regards to their internal options I remain very optimistic about Romero. I know he’s struggled with his command this year but there’s no denying he has great stuff. High velocity fastball and effective breaking balls when he can actually throw them for strikes. I think he’s a guy who has a chance to develop into a weapon out of the bullpen.

  5. The need for pitching regards playoff matchups, this staff is built to win the division behind the good offense.  Come playoff time Odorizzi/ Perez/ Gibson don't match up great as your 2nd starter.  Then pen is the biggest area of concern, they need a closer level righty to pair with Rodgers.

     

    Thanks for the comment! I do agree that playoffs are a different beast and that is one area where a guy like Bumgarner could be very valuable. His career postseason track record is HOF worthy. There’s no active pitcher in the game who’s performed better than him in the playoffs. Even still, like I mentioned in my post I’m not convinced it’s wise to give up high end prospects to get him on a rental with the hope he can rediscover his 2014 postseason dominance. Obviously Bum isn’t the only pitcher available but I’ve heard Twins fans throw his name out there a lot.

     

    The pen is tricky too. Off top of my head I’m really not sure how many, if any, top level relief arms will be available at the deadline. Kimberl is the easy and obvious answer but I have a hard time believing that’s the direction they want to go.

  6. There’s really not a whole lot of places to add guys right now. Obviously injuries can happen and there could be a need down the line where there presently isn’t one.

     

    Let’s focus on the here and now though. When Sano returns every position is somewhat set in stone. Rosario, Buxton and Keller have more than earned their keep. Polanco, Schoop and Cron aren’t going to be replaced. As Dan Hayes outlined in a recent article in The Athletic, the Twins have gotten tremendous value from every catchier on their roster.

     

    Pitching is the only area where there’s room to improve. Berrios, Perez, Oodorizzi, with the way they’ve been throwing so far are a very formidable front end of the rotation. Gibson is very much a solid 4 starter on any team. Pineada, as you mentioned as been shaky at best but it’s not too far out of the question that when the weather warms up and he builds more strength he will be a lot more effective than he is right now. Buumgarner would certainly be nice but unless Perez or Odorizzi sudddenly decline it’s hard to say we truly need another top level arm at the front end.

     

    That brings us to the bullpen. As I outlined in a recent blog post, their bullpen has been pretty darn good. Yes adding a quality arm or two would help but it depends at what cost. Recent market trends indicate a top level relief arm commmands about a top 50 prospect.

     

    You’re certainly not wrong the Twins have a window to win now but you also gotta think about the future of this club too. Cron, Cruz, Schoop are all on one year deals. The core players we have right now are all still young. Rosario (27), Polanco (25), Buxton (25), Berrios (24). This team is built to win now and in the future. If they make the playoffs this year they’re already “ahead of schedule”, much like the 2015 Astros who won it all a coupe years later. Don’t wanna sell the farm to win now when your window is much larger than just this year.

  7. I agree. While they’ve pitched well so far it obviously doesn’t hurt to add another quality arm or two. It’s just a mater of at what cost. The Indians gave up a top 50 prospect for Brad Hand. The Cubs gave up Gleyber Torres for Chapman and the Indians gave up Clint Frazier for Andrew Miller. The Twins pen isn’t so terrible where they need to sell the farm for an elite arm. That’s why I like Will Smith.

  8. Rosario has also ran into some bad luck at the plate. I think his average is a little misleading. His current BABIP is .177 which is absurdly low. That’s definitely a product of some bad luck when he’s putting balls in play. He’s still making good contact and not striking out a ton. Eventually he’ll start having more balls in play drop in for knocks.

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