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Heiny

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  1. Like
    Heiny reacted to Trov in Game Score: Twins 5, Rays 4   
    If only we could have played like this all year.  It makes you wonder if Happ and Shoemaker would have not been signed or made the team if our season would have been different.  Not saying the young guys would have been MLB ready out the gate, but we sent the two of them out wayyyyyy too much early in the season.  
    We only 16 games back now, if Buck comes back and plays like he did in April, we can go on a tear and catch the Sox.  Lets do it.  It would be greatest comeback ever, but not by much.  Only a few games.  I really doubt we will, but could be a fun end of season if we just go on a tear. 
  2. Like
    Heiny reacted to tarheeltwinsfan in The Twins Power Position   
    The Twins have more to gain by playing Palacios than they do by continuing to play Simmons. Period. Also, find a way to play Miranda on the Twins team. Definitely trade Donaldson..
  3. Like
    Heiny reacted to bean5302 in The Twins Power Position   
    Palacios is a MiLB free agent at the end of the year and is not on the 40 man roster. He's reached base safely in 12 straight games (.304/.365/.717 OPS 1.083 9.6% BB, 13.4% K) has owned an OPS north of .800 all but 1 month (July .667) this year. He hasn't committed an error in 25 games while playing nearly exclusive shortstop. Palacios also leads all AA shortstops in home runs and is top 10 in all of the minors, has been great on the basepaths stealing 14 bases in 19 attempts and has a .265 average despite a potentially lower than expected BABIP given his speed. Palacios also has a BB rate 1/2 his K rate and over the past month, his BB and K rate are nearly identical. Yet, Simmons is still playing SS every day.
    May Line: .311/.398/.478 OPS .876, ISO .267, 12.6% BB, 25.2% K with 6 errors June Line: .250/.348/.490 OPS .838, ISO .240, 9.8% BB, 22.3% K with 4 errors July Line: .221/.303/.364 OPS .667, ISO .143, 10.0% BB, 22.2% K with 2 errors Aug Line: .279/.354/.628 OPS .982, ISO .349, 10.4% BB, 14.6% K with 0 errors Overall: .265/.352/.474 OPS .826, ISO .209, 10.8% BB, 22.1% K with 12 errors I can't see anything more within reason Palacios could have done this year to get called up. The Twins even have two prospects they may want to play SS at AA other than Palacios right now. Martin and Steer. With about a dozen reasons to call Palacios' number, the Twins have refused to do so.
    There are 4 things you could argue, in order of likelihood.
    The Twins have already written him off and think of Palacios as MiLB roster filler who's just getting lucky (most likely) The Twins think Palacios is a potential starting shortstop, but want to evaluate other unlikely contributors who are hanging onto a fringey 40 man roster spot so they don't want to give Palacios a spot on the 40 man yet. The Twins think Palacios is a potential starting shortstop, but they think if Palacios stays in AA, nobody else in MLB will notice him and they may be able to re-sign him to a MiLB contract without having to give him a 40 man roster spot and use him as a potential backup next year. The Twins think Palacios is a future All Star starting shortstop and are trying to manipulate his service time. Btw, this post is fun because Palacios is just playing so well by the stat lines. It's all lot more about the positivity around Palacios and how he's been consistently playing great as an underdog all year than it is about the Twins' ineptitude. Most of the other "underdogs" have some pretty concerning peripherals. High K rates, low BB rates, unusual BABIP, granite gloves, iron boots, etc. Palacios has improved his K rate all season long. His BB rate has been sustained since 3 years ago in Tampa, his ISO has always been playable, his glove has shaken off the rust and become rock solid, he's stolen 5 of his last 6 attempts. I mean, it really seems like almost every facet of his game has become more polished while sustaining a very high level of play at the plate. If the Twins think Palacios isn't going to be picked up by another team, they're dreaming.
    Ultimately, I still believe Palacios is far from a sure thing at the MLB level, but it's hard to ignore how well he's been playing at AA all season long. Sustained success beyond 300 plate appearances without obvious big red flags isn't usually flukey at the high minors. If we eliminate the missed season last year, Palacios would be in his age 23 season this year (he just turned 25 a few days ago).
  4. Like
    Heiny reacted to DocBauer in The Twins Power Position   
    Great post and great questions!
    For a moment, we have to forget a trade could happen and, of course, guys do end up on the IL list from time to time. 
    Donaldson is a key for 2022 and nobody can deny it. He COULD be healthy, as he's been most of this year, and provide a positive influence and transition to 1B and DH and allow progression of the prospects or he could a negative for a re-tooling team. His future absolutely agree influences initial roster construction. 
     
    But let's get back to your questions. Larnach is absolutely an OF, and he plays either corner. Mostly LF with Kepler in RF. No reason he can't play both. Kirilloff is also a decent corner OF and the only reason we are talking about him at 1B is because of depth and because he looks so good there. 
    Garver should have 600PA as a C/1B/DH.
    Arraez can play multiple positions AND DH. Never said he should only be a DH. People are obsessed that the DH spot should be a slugger. How about a good roster/lineup where you just put a great bat/OB hitter there? 
    Just saying, the offensive line-up posibilites are interesting and not resteictive.
     
  5. Like
    Heiny reacted to Mike Sixel in The Twins Power Position   
    Where does Larnach play if Arraez is DH? Sano? Kiriloff? Garver? Donaldson?
    IMO, Martin is the LF by mid next year.....Kiriloff is 1B, and Sano or Larnach or Donadlson is DH.....or even Miranda. Arraez's only position is to back up all those guys plus back up Polanco?
  6. Like
    Heiny reacted to DocBauer in The Twins Power Position   
    I love good defense. I want good defense. I still believe it's important in today's game. I have seen enough of Polanco at SS that I still feel he's fine as the backup. And while I don't mean to disparage anyone, much less a former great Twin, what we need is another Gagne for just a year or two. Simmons was supposed to be that guy but other than the first couple of weeks of 2021, he clearly was not that guy. It would be awesome to sign one of the top FA SS that will be available this offseason. But really, position wise, there is a ton of optimism for the offense in 2022. And $ should be spent on a SP and a couple high quality BP arms to add to the few guys we already have.
    Who is a SS we can get to play quality defense and not stink at the plate for 2022?
    We have seen Polanco be outstanding. We have seen him injured, depressed, and suspended and everything in between. But we have absolutely seen what a healthy Polanco can do. And despite a few bad plays while still adjusting to 2B on a daily basis, he's looked good to great. And yes, the best of him is still to come.
    STOP that Arraez doesn't have a role! Still young, bounced around position to position, he's still growing and learning. He can play multiple positions "OK" and that's fine. He can also be a DH at times. What's wrong with that?
    More time at 2B will only make Polanco more comfortable and I wouldn't be surprised if he won not only a Silver Slugger but a Gold Glove,  FWIW. And even more time just gaining experience, I wouldn't be surprised if Arraez turned out to be at least a solid defensive player at multiple positions as well as DH at times. I mean, just be honest, you've seen Arraez make some bad plays. But you've also seen him make some great plays as well.
    What the Twins need in 2022 is a quality SS who can just be quality defensively and contribute offensively. Second base is locked in.
  7. Like
    Heiny reacted to Brock Beauchamp in Twins 40-Man Roster Crunch? Perhaps Not   
    I don't disagree but I'd like to see the team move Donaldson in the offseason and Sano cannot be trusted. Rooker is more of a longshot for the 2022 roster but I'm not writing him off entirely yet.
  8. Like
    Heiny reacted to Seth Stohs in Twins 40-Man Roster Crunch? Perhaps Not   
    The 60 Day IL can't be used until Spring Training. 
    Also, if Enlow was taken and on the 60 Day IL all year, he would have to be on the 2023 roster all season or be offered back to the Twins. 
  9. Like
    Heiny reacted to roger in Twins 40-Man Roster Crunch? Perhaps Not   
    Excellent way of presenting this, Lucas, and excellent discussion.
    The only thing that I think you missed is at the end when you discuss the 19 players players who will/could be departing, you failed to take into consideration that the current 40-man has 46 players on it with 6 on the 60-day IL.  So the number of potential spots will be 19-6, or 13.  With 5 locks, they are then down to 8 potential spots for both young players to be added and open spots for free agent signings.  So it is probably a lot tighter than you presented.  And that assumes all the 16 players at the end are released, which certainly won't happen.
    But I loved the article and expect them to have many lengthy conversations as they approach December.  Personally, I think the most likely of the 50/50 is the first you listed, Enlow.  The next most likely might be Severino, especially if he continues hitting at Cedar Rapids like he has since his promotion.  The other reason may be that they have $2.5M invested in this young man, so I have a feeling he will be added.
    The key will be how many of those guys in the last group are retained.  I expect it will be more than we think.  Hopefully, they can trade a few of them, but that doesn't happen that often. 
  10. Yikes, Bro
    Heiny reacted to Mike Sixel in TD Top Twins Prospect Rankings (Post Draft and Trade Deadline): 1-5   
    Not true. They could have paid Lewis top dollar and still signed enlow. They just saved money. They may have suffered a minor penalty, but it was in the range of acceptable. Also, I'd trade both of them for Greene right now, easy. I'd even throw in Rooker.
  11. Like
    Heiny reacted to TopGunn#22 in TD Top Twins Prospect Rankings (Post Draft and Trade Deadline): 1-5   
    The Twins FO, at least at first blush, did a great job at the trade deadline.  They got legit prospects for Berrios and Cruz and to have been able to deal Happ for Gant, a major league pitcher who should certainly factor into our mix for BP or even starting rotation in 2022 is beyond amazing.  However, as is always the case (even in Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz trades) it usually takes a little time for the seller of the "major league talent"  and Cruz and Berrios were the best we had, to show a return.  Lewis and Martin could be studs to build around in the future along with Kiriloff.  But the challenge for the Twins FO this winter will be what they can do, and what their realistic expectations are for 2022 and 2023.  This has been a "magic" baseball season for the White Sox.  Just like 2019 was for us.  Will they cash in with a World Series Championship or fall short like we did ??  Baseball seasons tend to be very different from year to year.  Who expected the Red Sox to be any good this year after their 2020 showing.  Are we really as far behind the White Sox as we appear to be?  Quite possibly.  They've had a tremendous year without Eloy Jim and Robert for virtually the entire year.  What is our FO's assessment of this current Twins team ??  No doubt, we have re-stocked our farm system.  But some of these "promising" guys are going to have to start making meaningful contributions...SOON.  How will the FO re-tool for next year to build a bridge from 2022 to 2023 ?  I'm very interested to see how it plays out.  I thought being a little more aggressive in 2020 and this off-season would have pushed us over the top.  I really thought a closer like Rosenthal or Yates would have been a strategic and excellent addition.  Both have missed the entire season.  Shows what I know.  But I still love to follow and voice my opinion.   
  12. Like
    Heiny reacted to roger in TD Top Twins Prospect Rankings (Post Draft and Trade Deadline): 6-10   
    You can watch nearly every MiLB game on MiLB baseball.  An annual subscription is $39 and I believe every one of the Twins four clubs has all their games televised.  Need a smart tv to get the internet connection...I think.  Also could be watched on your computer.
  13. Like
    Heiny reacted to Unwinder in TD Top Twins Prospect Rankings (Post Draft and Trade Deadline): 6-10   
    If you want it enough to pay for it, milb dot tv is not unreasonably priced.
  14. Like
    Heiny got a reaction from roger in TD Top Twins Prospect Rankings (Post Draft and Trade Deadline): 6-10   
    Love the rankings and IMHO grading them is so speculative that I like reading everyone's opinions.  I just wish that I could watch full minor league games occasionally(somewhere).  Does anyone know of any online sites that stream full games either live or recorded?
     
  15. Like
    Heiny reacted to 2wins87 in TD Top Twins Prospect Rankings (Post Draft and Trade Deadline): 6-10   
    Fangraphs has a really good stats filter that lets you combine upper minors performance (AA and AAA) across all minor leaguers.  Check it out here:
    https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&lg=2,4,5,6,7&stats=bat&qual=y&type=1&team=&season=2021&seasonEnd=2021&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=19,1
    There's no one else who's still of prospect age and who's had enough plate appearances that has been any better than Miranda.  I'm pretty excited about his future.
  16. Like
    Heiny reacted to Mike Sixel in TD Top Twins Prospect Rankings (Post Draft and Trade Deadline): 15-11   
    The Fangraphs' prospect guys have said that looking at age this year is really off.....Covid messed up, in effect, two years, for many players (last and this). I expect we'll be back to some kind of normal in 3 years, assuming they play full seasons during that time.
  17. Like
    Heiny reacted to Seth Stohs in TD Top Twins Prospect Rankings (Post Draft and Trade Deadline): 15-11   
    And the Rays still put him on their 40-man roster... I think that says a lot too. 
  18. Like
    Heiny reacted to Seth Stohs in TD Top Twins Prospect Rankings (Post Draft and Trade Deadline): 15-11   
    As noted in the previous message, we have ten voters included here, and I'm guessing we all have our own opinions and criteria. So, I can really only speak to mine... 
    Age-to-level-of-competition is a factor in prospect rankings. That said, this year I don't know how much that factors. There was a full missed year. Winder didn't pitch at all last year. Strotman had Tommy John surgery in 2018 and has been working his way back. I'd also add that age-to-level may be a slightly lesser criteria for me this year than normal years, and certainly less now that a few years ago. Guys are ready when they're ready. Guys that go to college for 3 or 4 years are naturally going to be a little older. 
    And frankly, if they come up at 26 and stay up, the Twins have control of them (if they're good or great) through their Age 31 or 32 season)... and frankly, the risk over 31-32 is high anyway.  But, that doesn't play into it as much as much wanting them to be ready when they get up there. 
    So many other factors or circumstances come into play for me. Tools. Somewhat performance. Injuries... and now a missed season. 
  19. Like
    Heiny reacted to DocBauer in TD Top Twins Prospect Rankings (Post Draft and Trade Deadline): 15-11   
    Strotman really intrigues me. Has a good frame, good velocity and the makings of solid secondary pitches. He misses all but a handful of rehab games at the end of 2019 due to surgery, then misses allnof 2020, and skips over AA to head straight to AAA. 
    He could be a real gem with just a little more time and patience. 
  20. Haha
    Heiny reacted to PDX Twin in TD Top Twins Prospect Rankings (Post Draft and Trade Deadline): 16-20   
    My prediction:
    They'll waive him. Detroit will pick him up. He will hit 45 HRs for them next year batting between Baddoo and Schoop.
  21. Like
    Heiny reacted to Seth Stohs in TD Top Twins Prospect Rankings (Post Draft and Trade Deadline): 25-21   
    I couldn't leave this one alone... Noah Miller throws 89 mph... and that's a "mediocre" arm?? I don't know how many shortstops in the majors throw 89! 
  22. Like
    Heiny reacted to Seth Stohs in TD Top Twins Prospect Rankings (Post Draft and Trade Deadline): 25-21   
    I think that Jermaine Palacios and Wander Javier are guys that can play short defensively. 
    I think Royce Lewis can be a better defensive shortstop than Polanco. I haven't seen enough of Martin at SS, but they've already moved him mostly to CF. Cavaco, like Lewis, played 3B mostly in high school. Lewis did because Chase Strumpf was there. Lewis just played SS his senior year. Cavaco played 3B because of Marcelo Mayer (top 5 pick this year), but people talk about his hands, range and arm too. Lots to still be figured out... and again, for all these guys, they need to keep getting innings. 
  23. Like
    Heiny reacted to TopGunn#22 in Four Players the Twins Could Trade This Winter   
    I think this was a good article primarily because it generates a LOT of comments and interesting opinions (and isn't that what the goal of this website should be?)
    Buxton---You can't trade him.  His "value" on MLB Trade Values is lower than Kepler's !!!  You just can't sell that low.  The Twins need to step up and make a reasonable contract offer to Buck with incentives for games played that will compensate him fairly.  If Buxton plays he WILL produce.  
    Donaldson--He's better off staying here unless somebody overwhelms you with an offer.  Which I don't think is going to happen.  With Cruz gone it opens up the opportunity to play him at DH more often and keeps a pretty good bat in our lineup.
    SANO---How could he NOT be initially mentioned ??  He's a rally killer who will never be what he hoped us to be.  I'd GIVE him away if I could so I could use his $10 million or so on a couple of GOOD bullpen pieces or a Pineda-like SP.
    Taylor Rogers--Being injured killed the big return the Twins could have gotten for him.  If the Twins bring in a REAL closer this off season (Rosenthal, Yates etc...) I like Rogers as my 8th inning guy who can close on occasion.  Again, unless I'm overwhelmed with a trade I hang onto him.
    Kepler---Max just frustrates me.  He should be better, but he's not.  His approach at the plate is baffling.  His value (according to MLB trade Values) is 30.4.  If we got equal value for him, I'd deal him.
    Arraez---I like Arraez.  he should be in the lineup every day and our leadoff hitter.  Unfortunately, since Rocco won't bat him leadoff he's a constant source of frustration.  He also has the highest value on MLB trade Values and would bring back a TON.  I could see packaging him for someone like Arizona's Ketel Marte who would make an excellent leadoff hitter, and a guy versatile enough to play 2B, CF, corner OF and maybe some 3B.  Plus he's got more "pop" than Arraez.
    The Twins still have big problems with the way their roster is constructed and they need to determine if next year is a throw away year or if they truly want to compete.  But they need to be ACTIVE this off season and they need to be smart. 
  24. Like
    Heiny reacted to yeahyabetcha in Four Players the Twins Could Trade This Winter   
    Trading 3 important regular starters (when healthy) and the only one late inning bullpen  option from the current roster would not be the direction I would go with this team.
  25. Like
    Heiny reacted to twinkiesfan11 in Four Players the Twins Could Trade This Winter   
    Seems like Buxton is the only player listed that is likely to have a significant market this winter, if he comes back healthy and avoids the IL the rest of the year.
     
    Donaldson and Kepler apparently didn’t generate a lot of interest at the trade deadline and Rogers may be done for the year. All seem like better candidates to keep around in an effort to either remain competitive or rebuild value for trades next summer. 
     
    It feels like they should make another push to extend Buxton. He’s probably the only potential superstar in the entire organization at this point. That being said, If they can’t work out a deal they should  absolutely pursue a trade in the winter. Hate to be cynical but if he’s not under contract I wouldn’t want him in the opening day roster, too much risk of another lengthy injury and losing him for nothing or close to it. 
     
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