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Blog Comments posted by mrtwinsfan

  1. 6) What impact will the October ballparks have on home runs?

    There won't be any games at Coors Field this October, but on the other hand, there won't be any games in offense-suppressing parks like Miami or San Francisco, either.

    One way we can look at this is to use Statcast data that evaluates how many parks each home run would have been out of, based on distance and height of fences. For example, this Brett Gardner home run from April would have been out of just one other park aside from Yankee Stadium -- Houston.

    So, we can use that to see which October parks have allowed the highest percentage of "easy" homers, which we'll define as "homers that would have been out of 10 or fewer parks."

    23% -- Minute Maid Park
    20% -- Yankee Stadium
    15% -- Dodger Stadium
    12% -- Miller Park
    10% -- Oakland Coliseum
    9% -- Nationals Park
    6% -- Busch Stadium
    5% -- Tropicana Field
    4% -- Target Field
    1% -- SunTrust Park

    Houston (61 such "easy" home runs) and New York (49) were easily the top two parks for non-crushed home runs, so the more games we have in those parks, the more home runs we'll get. This should tell you a little about how hard it is to get the ball out in Minnesota and especially in Atlanta, which has had something of a mistaken reputation as a new "launching pad."

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