A good list, and good arguements.
Rodriguez should be ahead of Miller, despite him being a CF/OF. Roughly the same age but was killing it before his knee injury and should be more dynamic of a bat/player.
Giving Balazovic ALL THE CREDIT for his arm and potential based on a couple nagging injuries. The ability and potential hasn't gone away.
Sands is getting untracked and looking good again. His future might be in the pen, we'll see. I'd keep he and the young Raya where you have them. Same with Festa for now. Festa may warrant being higher when the year is done. SWR is fair based on age and experience. Tons of potential, but very young and his "schedule" has been advanced and weird.
Not exactly where I'd place him, but I'd place Wallner higher. Looks like the bat may be for real and he should be at least OK in the OF.
Sorry, can't give Balazovic allowances, and Enlow...deservedly so IMO...and then downgrade Canterino. He's never been hurt until last year and now, but neither injury seems surgical. May just mean, unfortunately, he's a RP and not a starter. Disappointing if true. But he could be as good as Duran in the pen and maybe that's just, reluctantly, where he ends up. But he could be a stud there!
Shouldn't Varland be higher? Not sure who he'd bump, but I think he's better than where you have him.
HUGE fan of Povich. Is Hajjar just behind him if healthy again soon and his BB looking better?
Soularie is on the upswing and very talented, but where he should be for now. Same with Rosario. Helamn is probably right for a super-utility player. Don't apologize for Julien being fairly high and being another super-utility type at this point. The skills and talent are there!
But Sabato is out of my top 30. Cavaco is near the bottom until he sparks at some point.
Nice list and really enjoyed your descriptions of how players were performing. Also nice to see a list out of the mainstream. I would have had Rodriguez a head of Miller mainly because his bat played so much better and looks to have star potential. While I think Millers hit tool is going to be good he has been struggling for a while now. Still a fun read. Thanks!
I think your list is largely accurate, with good comments on each. I could argue a few placements, but that's really just nit-picking and pointless. But I wanted to comment on a few guys here.
1] Never understood all the questions about Lewis' defense. Ive seen enough in ST games, milb highlights, and his brief ML time to see a kid who is a great athlete who has the hands, range, arm, and pure athleticism to be at least a quality ML SS. If you can make the great plays, it's a matter of time and experience to make the routine plays more consistently. He's probably never going to be a Correa type defensively, but so few are. I think he's going to be very good, if not excellent, with his glove with a little more time. He's still so damn young.
2] Martin has too much natural ability for the bat to not catch up. Crazy the expectations some have placed on him. College to nothing in 2020 and then straight to AA in his pro debut. The kid needs and deserves a little time, not unreal expectations of reaching the majors in 2022. I believe SOME power WILL COME. Again, just too much talent to not expect it to come. But he doesn't have to be a slugger to be very valuable. How about 30+ doubles with some triples and double digit HR's along with AVG and OB and speed that provides SB? Agreed he's probably not a real SS, but could play 2B and 3B and, IMO, should work there but be transitioned to the OF. I see him as an outstanding defensive LF who can also play CF. I get so frustrated when I read comments that he just won't be a quality offensive player without 20+ HR power for being an OF. When was it decided LF had to be a questionable defensive performer with power? I see Martin as being a clone of Alex Gordon, with more speed and a little less power, perhaps.
3] Miranda is still young and developing. He was a high pick the FO liked and was just waiting for the bat to catch up. That started in 2021. He's a rookie who has struggled initially...as if that's never happened before...but was starting to hit much better before his brief demotion. I think the bat is going to be just fine, though it's a question when the bulb begins to burn brightly. See "Lewis" in regard to settling down defensively as just being more consistent. The ability is there to at least be solid.
4] I just can't get too down on Balazovic with his slow start. He's behind everyone with his late start. Everything is there to be very good. I'm betting by August, if not sooner, we're all very excited for him in 2023 and will forget about his rough start.
5] Miller/Rodriguez: I get being torn between these two. Miller has surpassed my expectations and plays a premium position. Crazy how good he's looked so far in both areas. Man, if some power comes, LOOK OUT! I just cant believe how good and disciplined Rodriguez looks, while still providing power and production. I wouldn't want to "rob" him of his discipline, but I think he really starts cranking when he sacrifices a little bit of that discipline to hack and use his inate power.
6] Canterino is one of the guys that I think you have too low. Maybe I'm just blindly optimistic, but I think he's a legitimate SP at this point. His stuff is crazy good and should continue to develop and play up as he gets time. Much is made about his wind-up. But Canterino has stated he's used it for years and feels comfortable with it. To my knowledge, he never had a concerning injury of any sort in college. The Twins only limited him in 2019 due to IP. His injury in 2021 didn't require any surgery, and happened after he missed 2020 like so many others. He's being brought along slowly this year, which I appreciate and applaud, and looking about as good as ever. At this point, I just don't understand calls to move him to the pen. Why? Desperation to help the parent club? No way, IMO. His stuff is just too damn good for a knee-jerk reaction.
And I'm going to add Festa here as well. Drafted, he's very tall and lanky, almost Ober-like, with vast potential to work with. He's EXACTLY the kind of projectile college arm the Twins love. He's already been promoted once, and there are already calls that he could be fast-tracked to the ML as a pen piece. Again, why? Why the rush and insistence to take an arm with SP potential and push him to the pen?
7] SWR and Henriquez are exactly where they should be. A pair of 21-22yo who should maybe be in A ball. Tons of talent and potential. And if they make a sudden jump, so be it. Move them up. But I'm very happy if they just sit at Wichita all year and just grow and get better.
8] Your higher on Sands right now than I am, and I was previously optimistic. I was really encouraged by his 2021 and his first couple of starts for St Paul. Suddenly the wheels came off. He's driving me crazy. I've watched him pitch every game for the Twins, including the Detroit game tonight, and he is wild and hangs stuff, and then I see a couple great pitches and a couple great IP and I wonder what is wrong? Kaat was the color man tonight and he felt he was opening up too early and falling off toward 1st base too much. Could it be that simple? I see "stuff" and potential with Sands, but there is something missing. It may be confidence. It may be his follow through. Might be both. I think there is an arm to work with there, I'm just not sure what to do with it.
9] Steer and Julien, to me, are sort of a "package" . Steer MIGHT just claim a starting spot in the next year or so. I still believe Miranda is the future 3B. But if for some reason he doesn't take hold, Steer just might. I believe he's going to be a "Marwin" type who plays 4 spots well and provides some good offense. I suspect Julien is going to be similar, play almost every day but not be a "starter". He will play 3 INF spots, LF, and occasionally DH and be a "sparkplug" type of player. This is where a really nice player like Gordon gets pushed out.
10] Povich and Hajjar, is very interesting to me. You have a pair of top Big 10 pitchers who are so easily dismissed because of where they played, despite their success. Povich was drafted WAY higher than projected. Hajjar has the build and potential to be a SP and innings eater. Early results tell me Povich will be challenging for a rotation spot in 2024 and Hajjar will be a potentially dominate BP piece at the same time.
GUILTY PLEASURE: There is SOMETHING about Raya since he was drafted that told me he was Berrios part 2.
MISSED: I really thought Strotman was going to make a difference at some point this year. I just can't understand how far he's fallen off.
Thanks for the help Tom! Yeah, I'm with you as far as the opportunity with awful teams in the AL, but I still think it's just a little too early to take the plunge and go all in. I think that will happen next off-season or possibly this trade deadline if the season goes well enough.