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SomeGuy

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  1. Like
    SomeGuy got a reaction from FanSince1961 in Is Nelson Cruz Cooked?   
    His Ground ball rate has risen quite a bit in May, over 49%.  His career is 41.7%.  His line drive rate seems to be what took the hit as it dropped to 7% in May down from his usual 20-22% he has been having with the Twins.
     
    I believe it is the wrist more than old age.  His exit velocity and hard hit% were not off his career marks by this much for the first month.
     
    Injuries are way up this year, probably to be expected with the short season last year.  League wide offense is also way down this year.  I don't think he would fall off this much from old age in so short of a time.
     
    If you add up all the offense for all of MLB, the stat line is .236/.312/.393.  I don't think anyone would consider that when talking about the average MLB player.
  2. Like
    SomeGuy got a reaction from Ted Schwerzler in Is Nelson Cruz Cooked?   
    His Ground ball rate has risen quite a bit in May, over 49%.  His career is 41.7%.  His line drive rate seems to be what took the hit as it dropped to 7% in May down from his usual 20-22% he has been having with the Twins.
     
    I believe it is the wrist more than old age.  His exit velocity and hard hit% were not off his career marks by this much for the first month.
     
    Injuries are way up this year, probably to be expected with the short season last year.  League wide offense is also way down this year.  I don't think he would fall off this much from old age in so short of a time.
     
    If you add up all the offense for all of MLB, the stat line is .236/.312/.393.  I don't think anyone would consider that when talking about the average MLB player.
  3. Like
    SomeGuy got a reaction from firdemerede in Is Nelson Cruz Cooked?   
    His Ground ball rate has risen quite a bit in May, over 49%.  His career is 41.7%.  His line drive rate seems to be what took the hit as it dropped to 7% in May down from his usual 20-22% he has been having with the Twins.
     
    I believe it is the wrist more than old age.  His exit velocity and hard hit% were not off his career marks by this much for the first month.
     
    Injuries are way up this year, probably to be expected with the short season last year.  League wide offense is also way down this year.  I don't think he would fall off this much from old age in so short of a time.
     
    If you add up all the offense for all of MLB, the stat line is .236/.312/.393.  I don't think anyone would consider that when talking about the average MLB player.
  4. Like
    SomeGuy got a reaction from DocBauer in Rule Changes: What do we want/not want to see.   
    Eliminate the runner at 2nd in extra innings.
    Eliminate the minimum batter requirement for pitchers.
    I would like to have the same rules between AL and NL regarding DH.  I would prefer no DH for added strategy but I realize that very few people share that view.  My desire for parity between the leagues is strong enough to be on board with universal DH.
    Go back to the previous rules of expanding the roster in September to the 40 man roster.
     
    Basically undo the Manfred era rules.
  5. Like
    SomeGuy got a reaction from mnfireman in Rule Changes: What do we want/not want to see.   
    Eliminate the runner at 2nd in extra innings.
    Eliminate the minimum batter requirement for pitchers.
    I would like to have the same rules between AL and NL regarding DH.  I would prefer no DH for added strategy but I realize that very few people share that view.  My desire for parity between the leagues is strong enough to be on board with universal DH.
    Go back to the previous rules of expanding the roster in September to the 40 man roster.
     
    Basically undo the Manfred era rules.
  6. Like
    SomeGuy got a reaction from Cody Pirkl in Bounceback Candidate: Marwin Gonzalez   
    Remove his 2017 season and he had a typical season last year. I don't really view him as a bounceback candidate, but a solid utility player.
     
    fWAR
    2014 1.3
    2015 1.5
    2016 0.4
    2018 1.5
    2019 1.4
     
    OPS
    2014 .727
    2015 .759
    2016 .694
    2018 .733
    2019 .736
     
    wRC
    2014 37
    2015 46
    2016 53
    2018 66
    2019 56
  7. Like
    SomeGuy got a reaction from chinmusic in The Blue Jays seem to be figuring it out   
    The Twins had a 20-12 (.625) record against the AL East. That is right in line with their .623 winning percentage. I think they would be okay. 2nd to the Yankees probably.
  8. Like
    SomeGuy got a reaction from mikelink45 in The Blue Jays seem to be figuring it out   
    The Twins had a 20-12 (.625) record against the AL East. That is right in line with their .623 winning percentage. I think they would be okay. 2nd to the Yankees probably.
  9. Like
    SomeGuy got a reaction from tarheeltwinsfan in Please Stop Telling Me How To Be A Fan   
    I don't think Grienke hates the Twins. It is known that he prefers the National League though. He likes hitting and probably doesn't enjoy facing DH either.
     
    Another thing to consider is how he feels about Arizona's current playoff chances. He probably doesn't want to walk away from his teammates while they are 0.5 games out of the playoffs and have the 2nd best run differential in the NL. He probably values his current teams playoff push more than joining another one.
  10. Like
    SomeGuy got a reaction from Aerodeliria in Please Stop Telling Me How To Be A Fan   
    I don't think Grienke hates the Twins. It is known that he prefers the National League though. He likes hitting and probably doesn't enjoy facing DH either.
     
    Another thing to consider is how he feels about Arizona's current playoff chances. He probably doesn't want to walk away from his teammates while they are 0.5 games out of the playoffs and have the 2nd best run differential in the NL. He probably values his current teams playoff push more than joining another one.
  11. Like
    SomeGuy got a reaction from MMMordabito in Please Stop Telling Me How To Be A Fan   
    I don't think Grienke hates the Twins. It is known that he prefers the National League though. He likes hitting and probably doesn't enjoy facing DH either.
     
    Another thing to consider is how he feels about Arizona's current playoff chances. He probably doesn't want to walk away from his teammates while they are 0.5 games out of the playoffs and have the 2nd best run differential in the NL. He probably values his current teams playoff push more than joining another one.
  12. Like
    SomeGuy reacted to strumdatjaguar in Please Stop Telling Me How To Be A Fan   
    The "Pohlad's are cheap" fan is an uninformed fan.   Every Darvish or Kimbrel signing by another team gets that mantra going.  By the way, I'm happy the Twins didn't sign either one of them. The Twins are one of many teams going after the top players who will come available in the next two weeks (as more teams become sellers).  I trust them to make a good effort to sign what is needed. Still, I am not excited about giving up one of the big three prospects (Graterol , Kirilloff, Lewis) for a fading MadBum or a Sonny Gray type of pitcher.  The Twins should not give up that caliber of prospect if they are going to take on a big contract for someone like Zack Greinke.  The Twins should add another top starter and/or a top reliever, but the cost is part of the equation both in dollars and the quality the players we are giving up.    When Management considers the cost, it isn;t being "cheap", it's part of making a good decision ofr the the team asnd the bottom line too.
  13. Like
    SomeGuy got a reaction from Dome Dogg in Is The Twins FO Actually Mad They Are Good?   
    The Front Office is very happy with the current team. The idea of this offseason was to compete this season without committing to the next 3 seasons. We could compete now for cheap and allow some development time to prospects. Should things have gone the other way, we could have easily reversed coarse but I don't think that was assumed to be selling these one year deals. As you can see with the dirt cheap Polanco/Kepler contracts, this FO has an eye for value.
     
    Not only have the deals worked out but the development side has worked out well too. Buxton confirmed that he was worth waiting for. Arraez seems able to take over 2nd now, etc. A big question mark for us was what we already had not just what we were getting from these filler signings.
     
    And honestly we wouldn't get a bounty for any of them either.  What would a team give up for half a season of Schoop? Even selling Cruz would be trying to convince 1 or 2 AL teams to fit a 38 year old, DH only into their roster. He's clearly still a good hitter but there wouldn't be enough competition for him to really get a great return.
     
    I find it really unlikely that we signed them hoping they would put up decent numbers and trade them for middling prospects instead of winning with them.
  14. Like
    SomeGuy got a reaction from jkcarew in Why José Berríos is NOT the Twins' Game 1 Playoff Starter   
    Berrios is our best current pitcher by a mile and should absolutely start game 1 of any playoff series.  
     
    You're worrying too much about stats in ballparks or stats versus teams. These don't compare well in a player to player comparison. For instance how does Berrios sample size in Tropicano Field compare to Odorizzi who called it home for so many years? How does Pineda's sample size against the Yankees stack up to everyone who didn't play most of their career for them? Gibson, Berrios, or Perez versus Pineda or Odorizzi in Fenway/Yankee Stadium/Tropicano doesn't really work because Pineda and Odorizzi were in the AL East for a long time. These comparisons are almost never on an equal footing.
     
    I don't see an argument that any of our current pitchers has better stuff or track record than Berrios and he should be used in as many games as possible in the playoffs. Game 1 starter all the way.
  15. Like
    SomeGuy got a reaction from ChrisKnutson in Why José Berríos is NOT the Twins' Game 1 Playoff Starter   
    Berrios is our best current pitcher by a mile and should absolutely start game 1 of any playoff series.  
     
    You're worrying too much about stats in ballparks or stats versus teams. These don't compare well in a player to player comparison. For instance how does Berrios sample size in Tropicano Field compare to Odorizzi who called it home for so many years? How does Pineda's sample size against the Yankees stack up to everyone who didn't play most of their career for them? Gibson, Berrios, or Perez versus Pineda or Odorizzi in Fenway/Yankee Stadium/Tropicano doesn't really work because Pineda and Odorizzi were in the AL East for a long time. These comparisons are almost never on an equal footing.
     
    I don't see an argument that any of our current pitchers has better stuff or track record than Berrios and he should be used in as many games as possible in the playoffs. Game 1 starter all the way.
  16. Like
    SomeGuy got a reaction from dex8425 in Why José Berríos is NOT the Twins' Game 1 Playoff Starter   
    Berrios is our best current pitcher by a mile and should absolutely start game 1 of any playoff series.  
     
    You're worrying too much about stats in ballparks or stats versus teams. These don't compare well in a player to player comparison. For instance how does Berrios sample size in Tropicano Field compare to Odorizzi who called it home for so many years? How does Pineda's sample size against the Yankees stack up to everyone who didn't play most of their career for them? Gibson, Berrios, or Perez versus Pineda or Odorizzi in Fenway/Yankee Stadium/Tropicano doesn't really work because Pineda and Odorizzi were in the AL East for a long time. These comparisons are almost never on an equal footing.
     
    I don't see an argument that any of our current pitchers has better stuff or track record than Berrios and he should be used in as many games as possible in the playoffs. Game 1 starter all the way.
  17. Like
    SomeGuy got a reaction from Danchat in Why José Berríos is NOT the Twins' Game 1 Playoff Starter   
    Berrios is our best current pitcher by a mile and should absolutely start game 1 of any playoff series.  
     
    You're worrying too much about stats in ballparks or stats versus teams. These don't compare well in a player to player comparison. For instance how does Berrios sample size in Tropicano Field compare to Odorizzi who called it home for so many years? How does Pineda's sample size against the Yankees stack up to everyone who didn't play most of their career for them? Gibson, Berrios, or Perez versus Pineda or Odorizzi in Fenway/Yankee Stadium/Tropicano doesn't really work because Pineda and Odorizzi were in the AL East for a long time. These comparisons are almost never on an equal footing.
     
    I don't see an argument that any of our current pitchers has better stuff or track record than Berrios and he should be used in as many games as possible in the playoffs. Game 1 starter all the way.
  18. Like
    SomeGuy reacted to twins_89 in What would a Madison Bumgarner trade look like?   
    Bumgarner is nowhere close to the same ace level pitcher he was from 2011-16. He is also a free agent at the end of the year. Somebody is going to overpay for the name, I hope it isn't the Twins. 
  19. Like
    SomeGuy got a reaction from IAMNFan in Earth to Falvey: The Window is Wide Open   
    I disagree that we need two or more relievers that are at least as good as Rogers (who is one of the best relievers out there).
     
    In reality we need someone to step up and fill the last 2 spots with something resembling average output.  Maybe Reed, Moya, Magill, Morin, Romero or someone else will eventually do that.  It is likely we pursue relievers in July but its not a life or death situation where we need to overhaul the bullpen ASAP. 
     
    I would say wait until July and reassess our needs then.  With the best record in the AL and seemingly no challengers for the division there is no dire need to do anything until the deadline.
  20. Like
    SomeGuy got a reaction from wallyrichards in Earth to Falvey: The Window is Wide Open   
    I disagree that we need two or more relievers that are at least as good as Rogers (who is one of the best relievers out there).
     
    In reality we need someone to step up and fill the last 2 spots with something resembling average output.  Maybe Reed, Moya, Magill, Morin, Romero or someone else will eventually do that.  It is likely we pursue relievers in July but its not a life or death situation where we need to overhaul the bullpen ASAP. 
     
    I would say wait until July and reassess our needs then.  With the best record in the AL and seemingly no challengers for the division there is no dire need to do anything until the deadline.
  21. Like
    SomeGuy got a reaction from howieramone2 in The Good, The Bad, and How To Fix It on Martin Perez   
    I don't know if I would place as much stock in your 1st inning theory.  He was poor in the 1st inning for 2017-2018 but over his career it hasn't been a problem.  I only saw the trend you outlined truly happen in 2017, where he was poor in inning 1 but good for innings 2 thru 4.  From 2013-2016 his 1st inning ERA's were 4.50, 2.25, 1.93, and 3.82. 
     
    His times through the order stats support what I would consider the usual trend in that he gets worse each time he sees the lineup.
     
    Career
    1st time thru order 4.13 ERA
    2nd time thru order 4.17
    3rd time thru order 6.01
  22. Like
    SomeGuy got a reaction from Sabir Aden in The Good, The Bad, and How To Fix It on Martin Perez   
    I don't know if I would place as much stock in your 1st inning theory.  He was poor in the 1st inning for 2017-2018 but over his career it hasn't been a problem.  I only saw the trend you outlined truly happen in 2017, where he was poor in inning 1 but good for innings 2 thru 4.  From 2013-2016 his 1st inning ERA's were 4.50, 2.25, 1.93, and 3.82. 
     
    His times through the order stats support what I would consider the usual trend in that he gets worse each time he sees the lineup.
     
    Career
    1st time thru order 4.13 ERA
    2nd time thru order 4.17
    3rd time thru order 6.01
  23. Like
    SomeGuy reacted to sdangus in Payroll Problems Biting Baseball   
    I for one am getting sick of all the sniveling on this site about how owners need to pony up even more money to a bunch of guys that are bringing in millions already, and claiming they are "underpaid".
    People that can't get over their jealousy that the owners have ridiculous wealth need to get off their butt ends and go out and earn some themselves. This country is being taken over by a tsunami of complainers that think eeverybody should be "entitled". I've got news for you. All of those people that think they should be "entitled" are the ones at the bottom of the economic scale because they spend all their time setting around feeling sorry for themselves. Get a life. Go out and kill something and drag it home.
    While I certainly think that every player is entitled to whatever he is capable of taking home, I don't think he is entitled to more simply because his employer is on a higher economic scale. The owner is entitled to keep all the market will bear as well. It is called "Capitalism". It is what this country was founded on, has always survived on, and will continue to survive on until the jeolousy overtakes all sanity. Then we will be Russia. Seems like a lot of people in DC think that isn't a good idea.
     
    All of that being said, back to the budget. Just because there are a few dollars available in this year's budget does not mean we can run out and sign a bunch of long term contracts for a bunch of expensive players. All that accomplishes is tying up your budget for future years, when a lot of our current young players will be getting more and more expensive.
    As players like Berrios, Rosario, Kepler, Gibson, May, Buxton, Polanco, Sano, Garver, and the list goes on, get more expensive, the budget will get more than tight in coming years.
     
    You, of course, are suggesting only short term contracts here which are fine, but for every one of these short term deals that are signed, a player with longer term control for the club is forced from the 40 man roster. That may come back to haunt the team in the end. Players like John Curtiss have the potential to be important cogs down the road. I'm sure all those things are being balanced by the front office as they make these decisions.
  24. Like
    SomeGuy reacted to old nurse in Payroll Problems Biting Baseball   
    If Betts thought he could get more then he should have went to arbitration. He set his value by agreeing to the contract
    Except for one year Harper has been in the 4 range for WAR except for the one year. People remember the one year and forget the rest. Before Heyward signed the contract he had been a 5 WAR player. Heyward at the same age was a consistently better overall player. The point on Heyward that you missed completely is that he got the money then tanked. Sandoval got the money and tanked.  They both were still in their under 30 years old prime age.
  25. Like
    SomeGuy got a reaction from Matthew Lenz in My 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot   
    My issue with PED users not being in the HOF is that we will never know the true scope of it. We know steroids were prevalent in baseball during the 70's, why do we treat Hank Aaron differently than Barry Bonds?
     
    Punishing 2-3 players under the assumption of using is not fair when there is so much certainty that 4 decades or more have been clouded with steroids.
     
    I would vote Bonds and Clemens if it were up to me.
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