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Richard Swerdlick

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  1. Like
    Richard Swerdlick reacted to mikelink45 in Scouting Twins Prospects: Gilberto Celestino   
    Thanks for the report.  I like him.  Based on what he did after leaving the team for AAA I think he learned his lessons well and will be ready to come back for much better results in the future.  I take him over Jake Cave.
  2. Like
    Richard Swerdlick reacted to mikelink45 in Buyer Beware: Flaws with the Top-5 Free Agent Shortstops   
    Nice summary, you really showed the flaws and for the money that they want and will get it is not worth it.  This is not the time where a SS will put us over the top.  Use what we have - Polanco, Gordon, Martin, Lewis - piece it together for another year and see if the prospects can take over.  Then invest in one very good SP and one very good RP.  
    I can see teams paying a lot of money for players who are past their prime in this scenario.  How has Lindor or Bauer worked out on big contracts?  Mookie Betts played great his first year in LA - This year a 264 with 23 HRs output is not at the value of his contract 
    Years: 12 (through 2032) Total value: $365 million Signing bonus: $65 million Average per year: $30,416,667 (11th in MLB)  Contract details Everyone was excited about D J Mahieu - he signed a big contract and then batted 268 with 1.5 WAR.
    The Brewers were happy to sign Jackie Bradley, Jr and managed to get -0.7 WAR.
    Marcell Ozuna looked great then his personal issues damaged the Atlanta Braves like Trevor Bauer and the Dodgers.
    I am not a big contract guy.  Paying for past performance makes no sense and MLB has really fallen into its own trap.  Look at the Angels - Rodon, Trout, and now Ohtani will have monster contracts and no post season.  Some sense has to prevail. 
  3. Like
    Richard Swerdlick reacted to LA VIkes Fan in Ranking the 2021 Twins Rookies On Long-Term Value   
    I agree on Celestino. Assuming no trades of outfielders, I think Celestino profiles nicely as the 4th OF in 2022 playing in a platoon in RF with Kepler and being Buxton's primary backup. Let's get him 250-300 plus ABs next year and I think he could be starter material by 2023. 
  4. Like
    Richard Swerdlick reacted to 2wins87 in Ranking the 2021 Twins Rookies On Long-Term Value   
    I think Jeffers is a bit low.  Catcher is a tough position to fill and I think teams value them a bit above their WAR because of this.  Also Jeffers hit quite well when Garver was out.  His offense has been suppressed by facing so much right handed pitching, but long term it should still be very solid for a catcher. 
    Celestino also deserve a mention, I think pretty close to Ober in terms of future value.  He hit really well after heading back down to AAA.  It was a tough position to be put in jumping up to the majors after just 100 PAs in AA.  I think he has enough pop to play as an elite corner defender or good center-fielder long term.
  5. Like
    Richard Swerdlick reacted to roger in Ranking the 2021 Twins Rookies On Long-Term Value   
    Interesting, Cody.  Thanks.
    As I read this was thinking that Ryan should be at least second.  But as I finished reading about Larnach and Kirilloff, nah!
    As much as 2021 was an absolute horse crap season for the Twins, and us fans, this is an awfully bright five some for 2022 and beyond.  Considering you didn't include Celestino and Rortvedt, it gets even more exciting.  Both were brought up way before they were ready, having never played a game at AAA, they did fine defensively.  Matter of fact, it appears that Rortvedt is their best defensive catcher who should only get better.  And both proved when they finally got to AAA that they can be counted on to be decent hitters a year or two down the road.  
    And this group of seven doesn't include several other rookies who contributed in 2021, guys like Barnes and Jax.  There have been a lot of very good pitchers who put up results similar to those two before taking that final step and becoming very good.  Will they, who knows?
    Add a young Alcala to this group and you have a 10-man core who should be part of very good Twins teams over the remainder of the 2020's.  Add a couple of the young guns who are close and Miranda, Lewis and Martin and the future is bright, oh so bright.  Will they be back in the playoffs in 2022?  Maybe, maybe not.  But the rest of the decade sure should be fun. 
  6. Like
    Richard Swerdlick reacted to wabene in Three Indicators that Jorge Alcala has Broken Out   
    Yeah could be something especially if Duran goes the opposite way. Still would need two FA starters though but yeah maybe just one frontline guy.
  7. Like
    Richard Swerdlick reacted to chpettit19 in Three Indicators that Jorge Alcala has Broken Out   
    If the changeup is for real now is there any chance the Twins kick around the idea of going Freddy Peralta on the bit and trying to move him back to being a starter? Relievers are way easier to find than starters and we know we can use roughly 64 starters for next year. I'd guess there's a roughly .0942348509% chance this happens, but I think it'd be worth a chat amongst the pitching coaches and higher ups. No idea what his stamina is like, but if I remember the reason he moved to the pen was the lack of a 3rd pitch to get lefties out. If he has that why not see if he can't get through the order twice?
  8. Like
    Richard Swerdlick reacted to roger in A 32-Year-Old Rookie, Twins Promote Drew Maggi   
    Great move by the Twins.  Have believed they should keep four or five AAAA types in St. Paul for multiple years.  Solid players the Saints fans can follow long term.  Maggi could be one of them.
  9. Like
    Richard Swerdlick reacted to Monticore in Game Score: Twins 7, Blue Jays 3   
    I like Pineda and suppose if he's inexpensive he's worth bringing back. Toronto has a helluva lineup, good to see Polanco make up for his miscues.
  10. Like
    Richard Swerdlick reacted to tony&rodney in Game Score: Twins 7, Blue Jays 3   
    Isn't it fun to watch Big Mike and all of his quirks? I'm thinking he can be an option on an inexpensive contract for next year as he is good for 20 starts of competitive ball. Great game for the bullpen too.
  11. Like
    Richard Swerdlick reacted to RedneckRay in Game Score: Twins 7, Blue Jays 3   
    Good all around win. Very much felt like 2019 all over again. Count me in for big Mike to return next year!
  12. Like
    Richard Swerdlick reacted to jimbo92107 in Game Score: Twins 7, Blue Jays 3   
    Good Pineda game. This is why the Twins should keep him. 
    Sunday I'd love to see Berrios pitch opposite Joe Ryan. 
    Who's with me on that one?
  13. Like
    Richard Swerdlick got a reaction from lukeduke1980 in Game Score: Twins 2, Brewers 0   
    Congratss to Andrew Albers. I hope I'm wrong, but the league has seen his act before and before long it will likely be " bombs away".
  14. Like
    Richard Swerdlick reacted to Monticore in Game Score: Twins 9, Red Sox 6   
    Jettison Colome, worst Twins closer ever. Ron Davis was heinous, but not as bad as this.
  15. Like
    Richard Swerdlick got a reaction from wabene in Revisiting the 60 Day IL   
    Great article. In regards to Smeltzer, just because we don't protect him doesn't mean someone else is going to take him in the Rule 5. I view him as a AAAA player, but if he is not taken in Rule 5, then he gets another look in Spring training. 
  16. Like
    Richard Swerdlick got a reaction from Dman in Revisiting the 60 Day IL   
    Great article. In regards to Smeltzer, just because we don't protect him doesn't mean someone else is going to take him in the Rule 5. I view him as a AAAA player, but if he is not taken in Rule 5, then he gets another look in Spring training. 
  17. Like
    Richard Swerdlick reacted to DMN13 in In Defense of the Twins Front Office   
    What a novel idea, to not be in the "what have you done for me lately" camp!  Fantastic article and well thought out points regarding management.  This team and overall organization still has a lot of talent and a lot of hope for the future.  Personally I'm hoping for a re-tool and not total re-build so it will be interesting to see what happens in the off-season.  Whatever it is, Falvey and Levine have earned the right to be in charge and keep moving the Twins forward!
  18. Like
    Richard Swerdlick reacted to Danchat in Game Score: Twins 7, Astros 5   
    Yikes. We went from using Wisler in openers last year (1.00 ERA and now Rays' closer), now to Burrows. Ugh.
  19. Like
    Richard Swerdlick reacted to jmlease1 in Game Score: Twins 7, Astros 5   
    Thank god none of the people here ready to give up on Trevor Larnach work in our front office. He's hit at every level until now, and was rushed up sooner than planned. Giving up on Larnach already is one of the worst takes I've seen on this site all season.
  20. Like
    Richard Swerdlick reacted to wsnydes in Game Score: Twins 7, Astros 5   
    With all do respect, this roster was loaded with established veterans at C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, CF, RF, DH, 4/5 of the starting rotation and most of the bullpen.  That's gotten them to where they currently reside; the bottom of the AL Central.  Time to reset.  Let the kids have their growing pains now, not next season.  Signing a veteran to block the glut of corner types in the farm system won't help anything.
  21. Like
    Richard Swerdlick got a reaction from Strombomb in Experts: Naming Five Twins Starters Right Now 'Pretty Good'   
    I believe that the Twins have a lot to play for. They are professional baseball players and they want to advance their careers. Also this will  give us a chance to check out some of our pitching prospects for next year. I am impressed they they are playing hard and want to win these games. If they could make it to .500 wouldn't that be grand.
  22. Like
    Richard Swerdlick reacted to bean5302 in Twins Minor League Hitter of the Month - July 2021   
    I noticed another issue with the minor league reports the last couple days. Miranda's batting line showed less than 3 hits per game... that just doesn't seem right?
  23. Like
    Richard Swerdlick reacted to Karbo in Fact or Fiction: The Twins Way Didn't Work for Matt Shoemaker   
    If the Twins are going to continue o sign "older" pitchers with a track record of some success then its on the Twins AND that player to follow thru on that players strengths that gave him that record of success. I don't know what transpired with Shoe but he was a pretty decent pitcher before coming to the Twins, and since going down to AAA he's looked good. Is it because lower level or because he's pitching his way?
  24. Like
    Richard Swerdlick reacted to LastOnePicked in Fact or Fiction: The Twins Way Didn't Work for Matt Shoemaker   
    Excellent write-up, Matthew. Well-researched and fair-minded. A home run.
    I think this story hit some of us hard because it fits one of the fear narratives we have about this organization under Falvey/Levine and Baldelli/Johnson - that they've got a dogmatic approach, they think they're the smartest people in baseball, and they pay more attention to numbers than to players.
    Plus, us fans have been hit hard by the reality that the team we had dreamed of seeing win a championship is now breaking apart and sinking to the bottom of MLB. "We had a 100-win pace ballclub for two years and all I got was this lousy AL Central Division Title T-Shirt."
    But, as some cooler heads have posted here, it is possible that the Twins can adjust quickly. It is possible that some of the problems are internal, but some are maybe from the new players themselves and some are just a matter of terrible luck with regard to injury and recovery. And as you note here, in the case of Shoemaker, maybe it's all three.
    That said, the Twins better be very open to criticism. They've traded away top players, they've given away new young stars for absolutely nothing, and, outside of Cruz, their FA signings performed terribly. They've got a lot of fair criticism coming this offseason - from fans and from players within the organization. Time to listen and to learn some hard lessons now.
  25. Like
    Richard Swerdlick reacted to chpettit19 in Fact or Fiction: The Twins Way Didn't Work for Matt Shoemaker   
    I know the Twins (and much of the league) love their high spin sliders, but if they're "forcing" pitchers who don't have effective sliders to throw them more I'm very concerned. So if we assume the change Shoemaker is mad about is the Twins having him throw his slider more, then it seems to me the problem started as a Twins problem and morphed to a Shoemaker problem as his struggles continued.
    At some point when you're getting you brains bashed in on the mound and it's the slider getting smashed every time stop throwing your slider (Twins analytic team should've been noticing these numbers, too, and that concerns me). Maybe the game plan was to use the slider more coming in, but while you're on the mound you have the power to shake off the catcher. As you watch your career circle the drain it's on you to throw the pitches you think are going to save your career.
    So I agree it's a Twins and Shoemaker problem. I don't think he was out of line with anything he said, and he definitely should have said "no" before he ended up back in AAA with no other team wanting him.
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