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bean5302

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  1. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from TopGunn#22 in Ranking the Twins Top-5 Speed Tool Prospects   
    Royce Lewis has 70+ speed from the reported home to first times and many scouting sources. Baseball America, Prospects Live, Roto Wire all have him at 70+
  2. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from DocBauer in Ranking the Twins Top-5 Speed Tool Prospects   
    I believe it was just recently Lewis reportedly ran another timed sub 4.0sec to first base. That's faster than Buxton. Baseball America reports Lewis can flash 80-grade speed. You're selling him dramatically low
  3. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from NatteringNabob in MLBTR: Trevor Story Reportedly Choosing among 4 teams   
    Story is definitely not coming to the Twins. Once the Red Sox were officially linked, 0% chance. Dead last in a weak division. Cheap ownership which does not commit to winning, salary dumps in the current year. None of that says "sign with Minnesota" but if the Twins were the only game in town, Story would have agreed to come here.
    The Red Sox see Story as the replacement for Bogaerts, and although the Red Sox will allow Bogaerts to play SS this year because they know it increases his value (a concept the Twins cannot comprehend), they also know Bogaerts defense has been average throughout his 20s and now at age 29, it's certainly not going to get better. The Red Sox are not only perennial playoff threats and World Series threats, unlike the Twins who haven't won a playoff game in 17 years, but the Red Sox operate a high payroll and come with enormous prestige in one of the most beloved and historic cities in the United States. 30%

    The Giants would love to get Story and move the aging, but still good, Brandon Crawford off SS and over to 2B where he'd replace Tommy La Stella. It's a huge upgrade for the Giants. Playing in a division he knows well, on the west coast in one of the most recognizable and loved cities in the entire world, let alone the United States. A team which was recently a World Series dynasty, has deep pockets and beautiful weather. 50%.

    The Astros make a lot of sense as the third team. Nasty reputation for cheating, but they win. Every year they win. Story would step into last year's World Series representative for the AL, in a division without a clear competitor. Story would play shortstop here, as well, but the hold up would probably be the Astros' interest in Correa. I think they're a 10%-er.

    The Twins? They've never signed a $100MM+ free agent. They're generally very averse to long term contracts. They've perennially been linked to big free agent names, but they've almost never actually ponied up the dollars, making offers well below expected value just hoping for a steal and when they signed a big contract, they quickly moved to ditch it. They play in a city with what has been a terrible reputation recently, in what is perceived as a flyover state. The Twins haven't won a playoff game in 17 years and have made the playoffs only during times when most of the division was rebuilding for the past decade... after a long period of being arguably the worst team in MLB. The Twins are a 0%-er for this signing.
  4. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Clare in MLBTR: Trevor Story Reportedly Choosing among 4 teams   
    Story is definitely not coming to the Twins. Once the Red Sox were officially linked, 0% chance. Dead last in a weak division. Cheap ownership which does not commit to winning, salary dumps in the current year. None of that says "sign with Minnesota" but if the Twins were the only game in town, Story would have agreed to come here.
    The Red Sox see Story as the replacement for Bogaerts, and although the Red Sox will allow Bogaerts to play SS this year because they know it increases his value (a concept the Twins cannot comprehend), they also know Bogaerts defense has been average throughout his 20s and now at age 29, it's certainly not going to get better. The Red Sox are not only perennial playoff threats and World Series threats, unlike the Twins who haven't won a playoff game in 17 years, but the Red Sox operate a high payroll and come with enormous prestige in one of the most beloved and historic cities in the United States. 30%

    The Giants would love to get Story and move the aging, but still good, Brandon Crawford off SS and over to 2B where he'd replace Tommy La Stella. It's a huge upgrade for the Giants. Playing in a division he knows well, on the west coast in one of the most recognizable and loved cities in the entire world, let alone the United States. A team which was recently a World Series dynasty, has deep pockets and beautiful weather. 50%.

    The Astros make a lot of sense as the third team. Nasty reputation for cheating, but they win. Every year they win. Story would step into last year's World Series representative for the AL, in a division without a clear competitor. Story would play shortstop here, as well, but the hold up would probably be the Astros' interest in Correa. I think they're a 10%-er.

    The Twins? They've never signed a $100MM+ free agent. They're generally very averse to long term contracts. They've perennially been linked to big free agent names, but they've almost never actually ponied up the dollars, making offers well below expected value just hoping for a steal and when they signed a big contract, they quickly moved to ditch it. They play in a city with what has been a terrible reputation recently, in what is perceived as a flyover state. The Twins haven't won a playoff game in 17 years and have made the playoffs only during times when most of the division was rebuilding for the past decade... after a long period of being arguably the worst team in MLB. The Twins are a 0%-er for this signing.
  5. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Hunter48 in MLBTR: Trevor Story Reportedly Choosing among 4 teams   
    Story is definitely not coming to the Twins. Once the Red Sox were officially linked, 0% chance. Dead last in a weak division. Cheap ownership which does not commit to winning, salary dumps in the current year. None of that says "sign with Minnesota" but if the Twins were the only game in town, Story would have agreed to come here.
    The Red Sox see Story as the replacement for Bogaerts, and although the Red Sox will allow Bogaerts to play SS this year because they know it increases his value (a concept the Twins cannot comprehend), they also know Bogaerts defense has been average throughout his 20s and now at age 29, it's certainly not going to get better. The Red Sox are not only perennial playoff threats and World Series threats, unlike the Twins who haven't won a playoff game in 17 years, but the Red Sox operate a high payroll and come with enormous prestige in one of the most beloved and historic cities in the United States. 30%

    The Giants would love to get Story and move the aging, but still good, Brandon Crawford off SS and over to 2B where he'd replace Tommy La Stella. It's a huge upgrade for the Giants. Playing in a division he knows well, on the west coast in one of the most recognizable and loved cities in the entire world, let alone the United States. A team which was recently a World Series dynasty, has deep pockets and beautiful weather. 50%.

    The Astros make a lot of sense as the third team. Nasty reputation for cheating, but they win. Every year they win. Story would step into last year's World Series representative for the AL, in a division without a clear competitor. Story would play shortstop here, as well, but the hold up would probably be the Astros' interest in Correa. I think they're a 10%-er.

    The Twins? They've never signed a $100MM+ free agent. They're generally very averse to long term contracts. They've perennially been linked to big free agent names, but they've almost never actually ponied up the dollars, making offers well below expected value just hoping for a steal and when they signed a big contract, they quickly moved to ditch it. They play in a city with what has been a terrible reputation recently, in what is perceived as a flyover state. The Twins haven't won a playoff game in 17 years and have made the playoffs only during times when most of the division was rebuilding for the past decade... after a long period of being arguably the worst team in MLB. The Twins are a 0%-er for this signing.
  6. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Eephus in Ranking the Twins Top-5 Speed Tool Prospects   
    Speed isn't what's most important for shortstop. It's quickness, accleration and reaction time. Speed is definitely valuable and helps with range, but it's rare you'd see a shortstop reach top speed playing a ball.

    A strong arm is more important at the position, and more than just a strong arm, high velocity with a quick release and short windup. Pitchers can throw very fast, but they have a huge windup with it. The biggest criticism I've seen with Royce Lewis' arm is his throwing technique having a long windup and slow release to generate the high velocity. The Twins supposedly had Lewis working on that hard in 2020.

    Aside from that... there's focus and and fielding technique. A good shortstop needs to be a reliable fielder. Air mailing balls or rock hands leads to high error rates and unplayable defense. This appears to be Nick Gordon's achilles heel, but we'll never know since the Twins won't play him at SS.
  7. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from chpettit19 in Ranking the Twins Top-5 Speed Tool Prospects   
    Royce Lewis has 70+ speed from the reported home to first times and many scouting sources. Baseball America, Prospects Live, Roto Wire all have him at 70+
  8. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Twins33 in What to Expect From New Twins Catcher José Godoy   
    Byron Buxton hit .156 in 2018, just in case you or anyone else here needed a refresher on his offensive capabilties.
    Mike Trout hit .220 in 2011, just in case you or anyone else here needed a refresher on his offensive capabilities.
    Babe Ruth hit .200 in 1914, just in case you or anyone else here needed a refresher on how he was always destined to be a nameless, faceless roster filler candidate.
  9. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from ashbury in What to Expect From New Twins Catcher José Godoy   
    Byron Buxton hit .156 in 2018, just in case you or anyone else here needed a refresher on his offensive capabilties.
    Mike Trout hit .220 in 2011, just in case you or anyone else here needed a refresher on his offensive capabilities.
    Babe Ruth hit .200 in 1914, just in case you or anyone else here needed a refresher on how he was always destined to be a nameless, faceless roster filler candidate.
  10. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from TwinsDr2021 in What to Expect From New Twins Catcher José Godoy   
    Byron Buxton hit .156 in 2018, just in case you or anyone else here needed a refresher on his offensive capabilties.
    Mike Trout hit .220 in 2011, just in case you or anyone else here needed a refresher on his offensive capabilities.
    Babe Ruth hit .200 in 1914, just in case you or anyone else here needed a refresher on how he was always destined to be a nameless, faceless roster filler candidate.
  11. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Linus in Would You Do This Trade With The A's?   
    I agree with most of the viewpoints I've seen on Lewis. He's a total wildcard. I also think Lewis' stock will likely swing wildly in his first 2-3 months of the season. If he looks like the stud his althleticism projects, he'll rocket to one of the top prospects, if not the top prospect in baseball across the board for mid-season grades. 

    If Lewis performs like his last season in AA, his stock will fall off a cliff.

    My point on all this is Falvey was hired to develop players from the farm system with the promises of advances in analytics following through to player development. We've seen absolutely nothing from any of Falvey's draft picks at the MLB level and this is year 6 with virtually all his first round picks being traded away or precariously close to "bust" status. The Twins were one of the oldest teams in baseball last year. He's got one year to put up major results in my opinion. If he's punting on Royce Lewis, I don't think his drafts remaining in the farm system have enough talent to save his job at this point.
  12. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Dman in Would You Do This Trade With The A's?   
    I agree with most of the viewpoints I've seen on Lewis. He's a total wildcard. I also think Lewis' stock will likely swing wildly in his first 2-3 months of the season. If he looks like the stud his althleticism projects, he'll rocket to one of the top prospects, if not the top prospect in baseball across the board for mid-season grades. 

    If Lewis performs like his last season in AA, his stock will fall off a cliff.

    My point on all this is Falvey was hired to develop players from the farm system with the promises of advances in analytics following through to player development. We've seen absolutely nothing from any of Falvey's draft picks at the MLB level and this is year 6 with virtually all his first round picks being traded away or precariously close to "bust" status. The Twins were one of the oldest teams in baseball last year. He's got one year to put up major results in my opinion. If he's punting on Royce Lewis, I don't think his drafts remaining in the farm system have enough talent to save his job at this point.
  13. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from DocBauer in What to Expect From New Twins Catcher José Godoy   
    Godoy managed a wRC+ of 84 at age 26 in AAA last year. Rortvedt, wRC+ 101 at age 23. What Godoy did in Rookie Ball does not provide value in his hitting evaluation. Is Rortvedt likely a plus hitter? Nope. He's a defensive stud with the potential of being a close to average MLB hitter. Godoy is a defensively adequate and will be a very below average hitter. There's no real projectability or ceiling left. It's why he was on the waiver wire.
  14. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Richie the Rally Goat in Trevor Story Rumors   
    While the Twins are certainly far more interested in long term contracts and big dollars for position players than pitchers, I just don't know about the likelihood they're in serious pursuit of Story. The Twins are often linked to top free agents as having made contact or talked with agents and the like, but when it comes down to it, the Twins have never signed a $100MM+ free agent, ever. The extension of Buxton and signing of Story? Two $100MM+ contracts in the same season would be pretty extreme for Minnesota.
    Boston is also in the discussions with Story at this point, and no doubt Houston is talking to Story's agents since they're talking to Correa as well. While Bogaerts may want to remain at SS, he's not a particularly great one and he has an opt out clause he's likely to exercise at the end of this year. I think Boston is a much likelier ending point for Story than people may think.
  15. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Nashvilletwin in What to Expect From New Twins Catcher José Godoy   
    Godoy managed a wRC+ of 84 at age 26 in AAA last year. Rortvedt, wRC+ 101 at age 23. What Godoy did in Rookie Ball does not provide value in his hitting evaluation. Is Rortvedt likely a plus hitter? Nope. He's a defensive stud with the potential of being a close to average MLB hitter. Godoy is a defensively adequate and will be a very below average hitter. There's no real projectability or ceiling left. It's why he was on the waiver wire.
  16. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from ashbury in What to Expect From New Twins Catcher José Godoy   
    Godoy managed a wRC+ of 84 at age 26 in AAA last year. Rortvedt, wRC+ 101 at age 23. What Godoy did in Rookie Ball does not provide value in his hitting evaluation. Is Rortvedt likely a plus hitter? Nope. He's a defensive stud with the potential of being a close to average MLB hitter. Godoy is a defensively adequate and will be a very below average hitter. There's no real projectability or ceiling left. It's why he was on the waiver wire.
  17. Like
    bean5302 reacted to ashbury in What to Expect From New Twins Catcher José Godoy   
    Groovy.  He'll be decent on defense, have less of an upside at bat than Rortvedt.  We've downgraded our 3rd string catching slot. 
  18. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Twins33 in 4 Things We Know After the Stunning Twins-Yankees Trade   
    Donaldson played 135 games last year, many of them with a lingering calf injury because the Twins wanted to manipulate Jose Miranda's service time rather than give Donaldson a chance to heal. Donaldson played in 155 games in 2019.
    In fact, the "very injury prone" Josh Donaldson has played in the 74th most games of any MLB player across 2019-2021 with 318 games. That'd make him the 2nd or 3rd most reliable player on any ballclub in general. Trevor Story ranked 30th in all of MLB with 346 games. Just 28 more than Donaldson across the past 3 years.

    Buxton played 187 games.
    Sano played 293 games.
    Kepler played 303 games.
    Cruz played 313 games.
    Donaldson? Again... 318 games.

    Even if Donaldson played the same, mediocre-ish brand of defense at 3B and just had normal luck, he'd have put up 4 WAR this past year. 
  19. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from TwinsDr2021 in Would You Do This Trade With The A's?   
    I agree with most of the viewpoints I've seen on Lewis. He's a total wildcard. I also think Lewis' stock will likely swing wildly in his first 2-3 months of the season. If he looks like the stud his althleticism projects, he'll rocket to one of the top prospects, if not the top prospect in baseball across the board for mid-season grades. 

    If Lewis performs like his last season in AA, his stock will fall off a cliff.

    My point on all this is Falvey was hired to develop players from the farm system with the promises of advances in analytics following through to player development. We've seen absolutely nothing from any of Falvey's draft picks at the MLB level and this is year 6 with virtually all his first round picks being traded away or precariously close to "bust" status. The Twins were one of the oldest teams in baseball last year. He's got one year to put up major results in my opinion. If he's punting on Royce Lewis, I don't think his drafts remaining in the farm system have enough talent to save his job at this point.
  20. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from ToddlerHarmon in Ranking the Twins Top-5 Hit Tool Prospects   
    From MLB.com

    Austin Martin = 65
    Royce Lewis = 55
    Misael Urbina = 55
    Danny DeAndrade = 55
    Alerick Soularie = 50
    Jose Miranda = 50
    Aaron Sabato = 50
    Emmanuel Rodriguez = 50
    Spencer Steer = 50
    Yunior Severino = 50
    From Baseball America in regard to general definitions. A 50 grade tool is "average" 

    https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/explaining-the-20-80-baseball-scouting-scale/
    It's worth noting that a players batting average may not represent their actual hit tool as plate discipline and experience can make a huge impact here. I'd say Eddie Rosario has at least a 70 grade hit tool. If he'd learn some discipline, his batting average would skyrocket. Royce Lewis scouting reports also mention Lewis being over-aggressive at the plate, but his pitch recognition and bat speed being well above average. 
  21. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Richie the Rally Goat in Whew. Andrelton Simmons signed by Cubs.   
    I have nothing against Simmons personally. I think his stance on vaccination was irresponsible and poorly informed as was his public stance on the matter. It's not like it makes him a bad person; however, it did make him a bad team mate and he embarrassed the Twins' franchise.
    Simmons did not sit out 2020. He played for the Angels in 30 games. Aside from that, Simmons' career bat is well below average at a wRC+ of 87 and his median performance is similar. From a defensive standpoint, he was below MLB average with a UZR/150 of -1.1 last year because of a higher than average error rate and, probably, poor range. This makes sense considering Simmons' trend downward in defensive prowess. His UZR/150 has declined pretty quickly as he approached and passed age 30 with marked decreases in sprint speed and steady increases in the amount of time it took to get from home to first base (which was below average across his entire career for shortstop to begin with).

    Simmons' advanced metrics also showed he made poor contact when he did connect and he ranked pretty much dead last in MLB in exit velocity and barrel rate among other things. He wasn't unlucky. His expected statistics were right in line with his actual production. There wasn't a single pitch type where Simmons produced positive value and he was abysmal vs. sinkers, sliders and even 4 seam fastballs. He struggled against changeups and curveballs, too. It was an across the board disaster in performance and when you're playing poorly while simultaneously taking a public issue on an extremely hot topic, the fans are not going to be kind.
  22. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from TopGunn#22 in Would You Do This Trade With The A's?   
    Honestly, if the front office made the suggested trade, I'd fire Falvey on the spot. Not because of the trade, but because it assures he tanked on the number 1 overall pick. Evaluating based on performances so far and how much value they've given or are expected to give to the Twins on the field...
    2017 - Royce Lewis #1
    2017 - Brent Rooker #35
    2018 - Trevor Larnach #20
    2019 - Keoni Cavaco #13
    2020 - Aaron Sabato #27
    2021 - Chase Petty #26
    2021 - Noah Miller #36
    Not a single one of those guys would be likely to produce any significant on field WAR for the Twins. Falvey should be on a burning lava throne right now.
  23. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Minny505 in 4 Things We Know After the Stunning Twins-Yankees Trade   
    Donaldson played 135 games last year, many of them with a lingering calf injury because the Twins wanted to manipulate Jose Miranda's service time rather than give Donaldson a chance to heal. Donaldson played in 155 games in 2019.
    In fact, the "very injury prone" Josh Donaldson has played in the 74th most games of any MLB player across 2019-2021 with 318 games. That'd make him the 2nd or 3rd most reliable player on any ballclub in general. Trevor Story ranked 30th in all of MLB with 346 games. Just 28 more than Donaldson across the past 3 years.

    Buxton played 187 games.
    Sano played 293 games.
    Kepler played 303 games.
    Cruz played 313 games.
    Donaldson? Again... 318 games.

    Even if Donaldson played the same, mediocre-ish brand of defense at 3B and just had normal luck, he'd have put up 4 WAR this past year. 
  24. WTF
    bean5302 got a reaction from se7799 in Would You Do This Trade With The A's?   
    Because Martin isn't fast, doesn't have a strong arm and lacks power. Martin is not an projectable as an MVP type of player. Martin is a high floor, moderate ceiling type of player in my opinion. If he's moved to the corner outfield spot people keep talking about, his ceiling is probably 3.0-4.0 WAR. 

    Conversely, if Lewis' elite athleticism allows him to play even average shortstop, he could be a more valuable player than a healthy Buxton. 
  25. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Doctor Gast in 4 Things We Know After the Stunning Twins-Yankees Trade   
    Donaldson played 135 games last year, many of them with a lingering calf injury because the Twins wanted to manipulate Jose Miranda's service time rather than give Donaldson a chance to heal. Donaldson played in 155 games in 2019.
    In fact, the "very injury prone" Josh Donaldson has played in the 74th most games of any MLB player across 2019-2021 with 318 games. That'd make him the 2nd or 3rd most reliable player on any ballclub in general. Trevor Story ranked 30th in all of MLB with 346 games. Just 28 more than Donaldson across the past 3 years.

    Buxton played 187 games.
    Sano played 293 games.
    Kepler played 303 games.
    Cruz played 313 games.
    Donaldson? Again... 318 games.

    Even if Donaldson played the same, mediocre-ish brand of defense at 3B and just had normal luck, he'd have put up 4 WAR this past year. 
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