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bean5302

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  1. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Twins33 in Ranking the Twins Top Position Player Prospects by ETA   
    No. Celestino's speed is probably a 50-60 tool. He's just fast enough to be an effective center fielder, not a great one.
    I don't know where the expectation Celestino will be a below average hitter is coming from. He was 22 last year and had no time in AAA before the Twins threw him to the wolves at the MLB level. Celestino rebounded from his meager 62 plate appearance MLB struggles to OPS .827 at AAA at age 22.
    Writing off his bat as below average is very premature. 
  2. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Minny505 in If no MLB deal will ST occur with minor leaguers?   
    It wouldn't impact the minors. Since MLB eliminated a bunch of minor league teams in the restructuring, it would be easy to just promote players up a level and backfill. There's plenty of talent to fill out another rookie league.
  3. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Minny505 in If no MLB deal will ST occur with minor leaguers?   
    The expectation is, yes.
  4. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from chpettit19 in Ranking the Twins Top Position Player Prospects by ETA   
    No. Celestino's speed is probably a 50-60 tool. He's just fast enough to be an effective center fielder, not a great one.
    I don't know where the expectation Celestino will be a below average hitter is coming from. He was 22 last year and had no time in AAA before the Twins threw him to the wolves at the MLB level. Celestino rebounded from his meager 62 plate appearance MLB struggles to OPS .827 at AAA at age 22.
    Writing off his bat as below average is very premature. 
  5. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Mark G in David Ortiz Elected to the Hall of Fame, Other Former Twins Fall Short   
    Hall of Needs a New Method of Election.
  6. Like
    bean5302 reacted to drbob524 in David Ortiz Elected to the Hall of Fame, Other Former Twins Fall Short   
    Pretty sure this has been said by multiple people, multiple times. 
  7. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Karbo in 3 Twins Pitching Prospects Destined for the Bullpen   
    Neither Sands nor Woods-Richardson are bullpen candidates right now. Chase Petty and Jordan Balazovic are much more likely to shift to the bullpen than Sands or Woods-Richardson in my opinion, not that I'd label either one of those guys as "destined for the bullpen."
  8. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Major League Ready in There's a Very Simple Solution to Minnesota's Shortstop Problem   
    Two division titles are proof that a team can technically succeed in by far the weakest division in baseball with Polanco dragging them down at shortstop if they have enough talent to overcome Polanco's limitations.
    The single year in Polanco's entire career where he was good enough to earn a starting shortstop job was 2019. That year, he put together an All Star worthy 4.1 fWAR. He's never produced more than 1.6 fWAR in another season at shortstop. That's well below average and considering his lack of physical talent when it comes to his arm, he's certainly worse at shortstop than 2nd base. Second base is worth +2.5 positional runs. Shortstop is worth +7.5. I'd be more than willing to bet Polanco's physical limitations more than makes up for the positional value at shortstop.
    All that aside, the Twins are not likely to compete this coming year. With Falvey already talking about starting Austin Martin at shortstop, along with other options like Gordon, Palacios and Arraez, there is no need to shift around one of the most important and tenured players on the Twins just to fill holes as if he's some sort of utility player anyway.

     
  9. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from TwinsDr2021 in David Ortiz Elected to the Hall of Fame, Other Former Twins Fall Short   
    Hall of Needs a New Method of Election.
  10. Like
    bean5302 reacted to wsnydes in Updated...Progress in MLB talks?   
    I thought the pool was for pre-arb players.
    I agree with your greater point though.  The younger players should be getting more of the pie.
  11. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Brock Beauchamp in CBA Negotiations - Keeping Track of Progress & Changes   
    There have been a lot of topics on the subject, but it might be hard to know what was proposed pre-lockout and where there's been give (if any) in the negotiations we know about... or at least I know about based on what sources are reporting. I put together some quick reference worksheet to track it. Green = moved towards owners. Blue = moved towards players. Red = moved further away.
    Pre-Lockout       MLB MLBPA Luxury Tax Ceiling ($210MM in 2021) $180MM $245MM Luxury Tax 1/2/3yrs (20%/30%/50% in 2021) 25%/30%/50% Current Luxury Tax Penalty 1 ($230MM +12.5%) Same Current Luxury Tax Penalty 2 ($250MM +42.5-45.0%) Same Current       & Loss of 10 positions in 1st or 2nd round Same Eliminate Competitive Balance with Qual. Offer Eliminate N/A Revenue Sharing (Pooled + Lux Tax in 2021) Increase* Decrease* Salary Floor $100MM N/A Draft (Worst draft 1st, best draft last) Lottery top 3 picks Lottery top 8 picks International Draft (None in 2021) Yes Current Free Agency (6yrs 2021) age 29.5 5yrs & 29.5 or 6yrs Arbitration Year Start (2-3yrs in 2021) 3yrs 2yrs Arbitration Performance Calc Career WAR-based** Current Arbitration Compensation $1 billion Pooled** Current Arbitration Opt-Out (Sign before Arb) No Current Pre-Arb Salaries (essentially league min.) Pooled*** Pooled (higher)*** Minimum Salary $570k in 2021) $570k N/A Postseason (10 teams in 2021) 14 teams 12 teams NL Designated Hitter w 14 team playoffs Yes       *MLB is proposing the current revenue sharing pool, but increase luxury taxes collected which would fund the pool further, MLBPA is proposing a decrease of the revenue sharing pool by $100MM and reduce the luxury taxes which increase the pool. **Career (fWAR) weighted towards recent years. This suggests player salaries could decline dramatically after a poor year or if the player has a great year before the first year of arbitration, their rookie or 2nd year struggles might reduce their salary. ***Pooled means all MLB gets together and determines the entire pool of arbitration money available. Money would then be allocated to players based on performance.             Current       MLB MLBPA Luxury Tax Ceiling ($210MM in 2021) $214-220MM $245MM Luxury Tax 1/2/3yrs (20%/30%/50% in 2021) 25%/30%/50% Current Luxury Tax Penalty 1 ($230MM +12.5%) Same Current Luxury Tax Penalty 2 ($250MM +42.5-45.0%) Same Current       & Loss of 10 positions in 1st or 2nd round Same Eliminate Competitive Balance with Qual. Offer Eliminate N/A Revenue Sharing (Pooled + Lux Tax in 2021) Increase* Decrease* Salary Floor $100MM N/A Draft (Worst draft 1st, best draft last) Lottery top 3 picks Lottery with market size Draft Bonus (None in 2021) No Service Time Manip. N/A International Draft (None in 2021) Yes Current Free Agency (6yrs 2021) age 29.5 or 6yrs Current Service Time Bonus for Awards (None in 2021)   Yes Arbitration Year Start (2-3yrs in 2021) 3yrs 2yrs Arbitration Performance Calc Career WAR-based** Current Arbitration Compensation $1 billion Pooled** Current Arbitration Opt-Out (Sign before Arb) No Current Pre-Arb Salaries (essentially league min.) Pooled*** Pooled (higher)*** Minimum Salary $570k in 2021) $600k/$650k/$700k $775k -> $875k Postseason (10 teams in 2021) 14 teams 12 teams NL Designated Hitter w 14 team playoffs Yes       *MLB is proposing the current revenue sharing pool, but increase luxury taxes collected which would fund the pool further, MLBPA is proposing a decrease of the revenue sharing pool by $70MM and reduce the luxury taxes which increase the pool. **Career (fWAR) weighted towards recent years. This suggests player salaries could decline dramatically after a poor year or if the player has a great year before the first year of arbitration, their rookie or 2nd year struggles might reduce their salary. ***Pooled means all MLB gets together and determines the entire pool of arbitration money available. Money would then be allocated to players based on performance.
  12. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Minny505 in Ranking the Twins Top Position Player Prospects by ETA   
    No. Celestino's speed is probably a 50-60 tool. He's just fast enough to be an effective center fielder, not a great one.
    I don't know where the expectation Celestino will be a below average hitter is coming from. He was 22 last year and had no time in AAA before the Twins threw him to the wolves at the MLB level. Celestino rebounded from his meager 62 plate appearance MLB struggles to OPS .827 at AAA at age 22.
    Writing off his bat as below average is very premature. 
  13. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Heistyman in Ranking the Twins Top Position Player Prospects by ETA   
    No. Celestino's speed is probably a 50-60 tool. He's just fast enough to be an effective center fielder, not a great one.
    I don't know where the expectation Celestino will be a below average hitter is coming from. He was 22 last year and had no time in AAA before the Twins threw him to the wolves at the MLB level. Celestino rebounded from his meager 62 plate appearance MLB struggles to OPS .827 at AAA at age 22.
    Writing off his bat as below average is very premature. 
  14. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Dman in 3 Twins Pitching Prospects Destined for the Bullpen   
    Neither Sands nor Woods-Richardson are bullpen candidates right now. Chase Petty and Jordan Balazovic are much more likely to shift to the bullpen than Sands or Woods-Richardson in my opinion, not that I'd label either one of those guys as "destined for the bullpen."
  15. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from roger in 3 Twins Pitching Prospects Destined for the Bullpen   
    Neither Sands nor Woods-Richardson are bullpen candidates right now. Chase Petty and Jordan Balazovic are much more likely to shift to the bullpen than Sands or Woods-Richardson in my opinion, not that I'd label either one of those guys as "destined for the bullpen."
  16. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Doctor Gast in There's a Very Simple Solution to Minnesota's Shortstop Problem   
    ...and they finished under .500 with prime Bert Blyleven, Rod Carew and Harmon Killebrew in 1971.
    Polanco cannot cover shortstop effectively and the Twins have several years of proof of that. He has to rush to make plays by being aggressive in the hopes to cover up for his lack of arm strength. While his results at 2B weren't great last year (again with the rock glove) there is at least the hope he can stop rushing and be smoother at a position he has the physical skills to play.
     
  17. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Heiny in Ranking the Twins Top Position Player Prospects by ETA   
    No. Celestino's speed is probably a 50-60 tool. He's just fast enough to be an effective center fielder, not a great one.
    I don't know where the expectation Celestino will be a below average hitter is coming from. He was 22 last year and had no time in AAA before the Twins threw him to the wolves at the MLB level. Celestino rebounded from his meager 62 plate appearance MLB struggles to OPS .827 at AAA at age 22.
    Writing off his bat as below average is very premature. 
  18. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from TwinsDr2021 in There's a Very Simple Solution to Minnesota's Shortstop Problem   
    Two division titles are proof that a team can technically succeed in by far the weakest division in baseball with Polanco dragging them down at shortstop if they have enough talent to overcome Polanco's limitations.
    The single year in Polanco's entire career where he was good enough to earn a starting shortstop job was 2019. That year, he put together an All Star worthy 4.1 fWAR. He's never produced more than 1.6 fWAR in another season at shortstop. That's well below average and considering his lack of physical talent when it comes to his arm, he's certainly worse at shortstop than 2nd base. Second base is worth +2.5 positional runs. Shortstop is worth +7.5. I'd be more than willing to bet Polanco's physical limitations more than makes up for the positional value at shortstop.
    All that aside, the Twins are not likely to compete this coming year. With Falvey already talking about starting Austin Martin at shortstop, along with other options like Gordon, Palacios and Arraez, there is no need to shift around one of the most important and tenured players on the Twins just to fill holes as if he's some sort of utility player anyway.

     
  19. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from TwinsDr2021 in There's a Very Simple Solution to Minnesota's Shortstop Problem   
    This article is stupid. Polanco is not and has never been a shortstop. Even with everything Polanco has done to improve his game at a position he is incapable of covering, he's still a very poor shortstop.
    No shortstop in the past 20 years has a lower UZR/150 with the equivalent of 3 years at the position. Polanco stands alone as the worst starting shortstop in the past 20 years.
    Why not just put Miguel Sano at shortstop?
     
  20. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Hunter48 in There's a Very Simple Solution to Minnesota's Shortstop Problem   
    ...and they finished under .500 with prime Bert Blyleven, Rod Carew and Harmon Killebrew in 1971.
    Polanco cannot cover shortstop effectively and the Twins have several years of proof of that. He has to rush to make plays by being aggressive in the hopes to cover up for his lack of arm strength. While his results at 2B weren't great last year (again with the rock glove) there is at least the hope he can stop rushing and be smoother at a position he has the physical skills to play.
     
  21. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Hunter48 in There's a Very Simple Solution to Minnesota's Shortstop Problem   
    This article is stupid. Polanco is not and has never been a shortstop. Even with everything Polanco has done to improve his game at a position he is incapable of covering, he's still a very poor shortstop.
    No shortstop in the past 20 years has a lower UZR/150 with the equivalent of 3 years at the position. Polanco stands alone as the worst starting shortstop in the past 20 years.
    Why not just put Miguel Sano at shortstop?
     
  22. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from joefish in There's a Very Simple Solution to Minnesota's Shortstop Problem   
    ...and they finished under .500 with prime Bert Blyleven, Rod Carew and Harmon Killebrew in 1971.
    Polanco cannot cover shortstop effectively and the Twins have several years of proof of that. He has to rush to make plays by being aggressive in the hopes to cover up for his lack of arm strength. While his results at 2B weren't great last year (again with the rock glove) there is at least the hope he can stop rushing and be smoother at a position he has the physical skills to play.
     
  23. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Minny505 in There's a Very Simple Solution to Minnesota's Shortstop Problem   
    ...and they finished under .500 with prime Bert Blyleven, Rod Carew and Harmon Killebrew in 1971.
    Polanco cannot cover shortstop effectively and the Twins have several years of proof of that. He has to rush to make plays by being aggressive in the hopes to cover up for his lack of arm strength. While his results at 2B weren't great last year (again with the rock glove) there is at least the hope he can stop rushing and be smoother at a position he has the physical skills to play.
     
  24. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Minny505 in There's a Very Simple Solution to Minnesota's Shortstop Problem   
    This article is stupid. Polanco is not and has never been a shortstop. Even with everything Polanco has done to improve his game at a position he is incapable of covering, he's still a very poor shortstop.
    No shortstop in the past 20 years has a lower UZR/150 with the equivalent of 3 years at the position. Polanco stands alone as the worst starting shortstop in the past 20 years.
    Why not just put Miguel Sano at shortstop?
     
  25. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Dman in There's a Very Simple Solution to Minnesota's Shortstop Problem   
    This article is stupid. Polanco is not and has never been a shortstop. Even with everything Polanco has done to improve his game at a position he is incapable of covering, he's still a very poor shortstop.
    No shortstop in the past 20 years has a lower UZR/150 with the equivalent of 3 years at the position. Polanco stands alone as the worst starting shortstop in the past 20 years.
    Why not just put Miguel Sano at shortstop?
     
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