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bean5302

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  1. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Ex-Iowegian in Past Front Offices Still Impacting the 2022 Twins   
    Terrible free agent signings? Smith did a good job with a limited budget. A budget he elevated through the retention of key players who didn't make it to free agency like Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer and Nathan. Smith brought in Orlando Hudson, Joe Crede, Jim Thome and Carl Pavano and all wound up being good free agent signings.
    The waterfall of trades wound up being pretty poor as Smith continued to lose ground with each step. It's not like all his trades were bad, though, or super impactful. Smith brought in Orlando Cabrera in 2009 which was a good move. Gomez for Hardy was a good trade. It was the Hardy for Hoey trade which was terrible, but as I recall, Gardy was a driving force on getting rid of Hardy. Capps for Ramos got the most vitriol, but Ramos never really amounted to anything due to injuries and Capps was very good down the stretch for the Twins in 2010 who were relying on the very shaky Jon Rauch to close games at the time.
    Honestly, the Capps for Ramos trade and the singular bad season in 2011 seemed to cement Twins fans' opinions on Smith who became the scapegoat for poor decisions by Ryan in 2012 and later.
  2. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from TwinsDr2021 in Astros 5, Twins 0, Verlander Dominates Hapless Twins   
    Ryan wasn't hitting his spots and the Astros were patient enough at the plate. It was obvious to me (in attendance) the Astros had Ryan's number well enough. Verlander just seemed to know what the batter would struggle against all night.
    In the end, the Twins lost by 5 runs and didn't put a single hit on the board until the 8th inning. A handful of ball/strikes calls had little or nothing to do with the Twins losing.
  3. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from mikelink45 in Past Front Offices Still Impacting the 2022 Twins   
    Terrible free agent signings? Smith did a good job with a limited budget. A budget he elevated through the retention of key players who didn't make it to free agency like Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer and Nathan. Smith brought in Orlando Hudson, Joe Crede, Jim Thome and Carl Pavano and all wound up being good free agent signings.
    The waterfall of trades wound up being pretty poor as Smith continued to lose ground with each step. It's not like all his trades were bad, though, or super impactful. Smith brought in Orlando Cabrera in 2009 which was a good move. Gomez for Hardy was a good trade. It was the Hardy for Hoey trade which was terrible, but as I recall, Gardy was a driving force on getting rid of Hardy. Capps for Ramos got the most vitriol, but Ramos never really amounted to anything due to injuries and Capps was very good down the stretch for the Twins in 2010 who were relying on the very shaky Jon Rauch to close games at the time.
    Honestly, the Capps for Ramos trade and the singular bad season in 2011 seemed to cement Twins fans' opinions on Smith who became the scapegoat for poor decisions by Ryan in 2012 and later.
  4. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from bighat in Alex Kirilloff is Becoming a Question   
    27 plate appearances this season at MLB.
    Only 35 plate appearances at AAA and 258 plate appearances in his entire MLB career. 
    I don't see Kirilloff as any more of a question mark now than he was at the beginning of last year. It is pretty clear he's struggling (pressing?). I feel like it would be worthwhile for him to spend a couple months in AAA to get things ironed out and build some confidence and the Twins certainly have the depth to move him there.
  5. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from DocBauer in Past Front Offices Still Impacting the 2022 Twins   
    In regard to this front office, previous front offices are obviously having an impact still, though it's waning quickly as we've now entered year 6 of the Falvey regime. We're starting to enter into the phase where previous regime draft picks have either made it to the big show or won't ever make it and contracts signed under previous regimes have long played out. 
  6. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from RpR in Alex Kirilloff is Becoming a Question   
    27 plate appearances this season at MLB.
    Only 35 plate appearances at AAA and 258 plate appearances in his entire MLB career. 
    I don't see Kirilloff as any more of a question mark now than he was at the beginning of last year. It is pretty clear he's struggling (pressing?). I feel like it would be worthwhile for him to spend a couple months in AAA to get things ironed out and build some confidence and the Twins certainly have the depth to move him there.
  7. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from TwinsDr2021 in Have Twins found their 4th outfiedler?   
    Celestino reminds me a bit of the veteran version of Denard Span after he lost a step. Quite frankly, I believe Celestino will be good enough to start every day and he may be able to cover center field more adequately than Kepler at this point.
    All that said, sample sizes this year are way too small to draw conclusions on whether or not Celestino and Larnach have adapted.
  8. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Dman in So, about that pitching pipeline…   
    Winder has been everything I'd hoped he might be flashing the potential to be a top of the rotation arm, though he's been surprisingly more like a better version of Kyle Gibson than I expected, generating a lot of weak contact and tons of ground balls.
    Ryan and Ober (aside from the groin) have also had nice starts to the season. Ryan's results are fueled by luck so far with that .212 BABIP, 6.1% HR/FB rate and ridiculous 91% strand rate, but the xFIP still looks really nice at 3.70. Here's hoping no cracks in the armor will be exposed as the scouting reports grow. Ryan may well be better than I thought he could be. 
    The biggest surprise for me, without a doubt though, is Jhoan Duran. After struggling greatly with granting the free pass in 3 of his past 4 stops in the minors and being hit hard in AAA last year, his results have been very stingy on walks so far. I honestly expected he'd be mashed like Thanksgiving taters. The underlying strike percent and first pitch strike rate suggest there's going to be some correction, but still a huge step forward imho.
    Glad to see the other prospects getting healthy and getting innings in.
  9. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Danielspr in Has Nick Gordon Proven His Worth to the Twins?   
    Gordon has 51 plate appearances this year and he's slumped a bit in the last few. His batted ball data shows his average exit velocity is solid and he's been very unlucky overall. Honestly, he just needs a much bigger sample size to judge. Gordon's ceiling at this point is probably MLB average hitter with a more likely expectation of well below average, but he provides the aforementioned defensive versatility. He's the prototypical utility player. A guy you can play every day for a couple weeks if you need to while another player is on the 10 day IL, but not somebody you'd want as a starter. There's a lot of value in those kinds of players because they're inexpensive, but don't come with the risk of an untested AAA replacement player.
    With Lewis off to such an inspiring start and the addition of Correa and Urshela this offseason, it's awfully crowded, but Gordon is a better fit in the traditional utility role than pretty much anybody else because of what he does (and doesn't) bring to the table. 
  10. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from glunn in Has Nick Gordon Proven His Worth to the Twins?   
    Gordon has 51 plate appearances this year and he's slumped a bit in the last few. His batted ball data shows his average exit velocity is solid and he's been very unlucky overall. Honestly, he just needs a much bigger sample size to judge. Gordon's ceiling at this point is probably MLB average hitter with a more likely expectation of well below average, but he provides the aforementioned defensive versatility. He's the prototypical utility player. A guy you can play every day for a couple weeks if you need to while another player is on the 10 day IL, but not somebody you'd want as a starter. There's a lot of value in those kinds of players because they're inexpensive, but don't come with the risk of an untested AAA replacement player.
    With Lewis off to such an inspiring start and the addition of Correa and Urshela this offseason, it's awfully crowded, but Gordon is a better fit in the traditional utility role than pretty much anybody else because of what he does (and doesn't) bring to the table. 
  11. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Dman in Has Nick Gordon Proven His Worth to the Twins?   
    Gordon has 51 plate appearances this year and he's slumped a bit in the last few. His batted ball data shows his average exit velocity is solid and he's been very unlucky overall. Honestly, he just needs a much bigger sample size to judge. Gordon's ceiling at this point is probably MLB average hitter with a more likely expectation of well below average, but he provides the aforementioned defensive versatility. He's the prototypical utility player. A guy you can play every day for a couple weeks if you need to while another player is on the 10 day IL, but not somebody you'd want as a starter. There's a lot of value in those kinds of players because they're inexpensive, but don't come with the risk of an untested AAA replacement player.
    With Lewis off to such an inspiring start and the addition of Correa and Urshela this offseason, it's awfully crowded, but Gordon is a better fit in the traditional utility role than pretty much anybody else because of what he does (and doesn't) bring to the table. 
  12. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from DocBauer in Has Nick Gordon Proven His Worth to the Twins?   
    Gordon has 51 plate appearances this year and he's slumped a bit in the last few. His batted ball data shows his average exit velocity is solid and he's been very unlucky overall. Honestly, he just needs a much bigger sample size to judge. Gordon's ceiling at this point is probably MLB average hitter with a more likely expectation of well below average, but he provides the aforementioned defensive versatility. He's the prototypical utility player. A guy you can play every day for a couple weeks if you need to while another player is on the 10 day IL, but not somebody you'd want as a starter. There's a lot of value in those kinds of players because they're inexpensive, but don't come with the risk of an untested AAA replacement player.
    With Lewis off to such an inspiring start and the addition of Correa and Urshela this offseason, it's awfully crowded, but Gordon is a better fit in the traditional utility role than pretty much anybody else because of what he does (and doesn't) bring to the table. 
  13. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Eephus in Ranking the Twins Top-5 Speed Tool Prospects   
    Speed isn't what's most important for shortstop. It's quickness, accleration and reaction time. Speed is definitely valuable and helps with range, but it's rare you'd see a shortstop reach top speed playing a ball.

    A strong arm is more important at the position, and more than just a strong arm, high velocity with a quick release and short windup. Pitchers can throw very fast, but they have a huge windup with it. The biggest criticism I've seen with Royce Lewis' arm is his throwing technique having a long windup and slow release to generate the high velocity. The Twins supposedly had Lewis working on that hard in 2020.

    Aside from that... there's focus and and fielding technique. A good shortstop needs to be a reliable fielder. Air mailing balls or rock hands leads to high error rates and unplayable defense. This appears to be Nick Gordon's achilles heel, but we'll never know since the Twins won't play him at SS.
  14. Incorrect
    bean5302 got a reaction from Nine of twelve in MLB Announces 2022 Minor League Experimental Rules   
    Robo umps are bad for the game. They remove controversy and fan engagement. Umpires get things wrong occasionally, but hating the ump is part of the game which gets the fans excited.
    How many times have the fans been engaged watching an angry manager trot out of the dugout arguing balls and strikes? How many times have cheers rained down on the field watching a manager get ejected for arguing those calls?
  15. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Jerr in Miguel Sano drops 25 pounds   
    5lbs a month doesn't impress me, but at 247 lbs (if that's the number), it may help his mobility a little. Accelerating mass takes energy and the extra mass in Sano's body definitely slowed his swing and ability to adjust so losing excess baggage may help him a bit at the plate.

    Sano's All Star value once laid in his ability to play above average 3B, now potentially relegated to DH because of terrible play at 1B more than his lack of range, I'm not sure where Sano really ranks on the depth chart.

    At the very worst, the weight loss is great for his personal health and no matter which way it the baseball spins, that's a good thing.
  16. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Nine of twelve in sabermetrics and the enjoyment of baseball   
    Softballs have a larger diameter and cannot be gripped exactly the same way as baseballs. Forearm tendonitis, elbow joint separation issues, etc. Max effort throwing with a heavier object will place more stress on the body. 
    There are better, safer ways to deaden the ball. Just change the composition of the yarn winding a little. Done. Of course, it will likely have other effects, but not as drastically as the effects of adding weight to the ball which will deaden ball movement and reduce spin rate.
    The issue with injuries, in my opinion, is max effort throwing itself.
  17. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from roger in Are the Twins done making moves?   
    I'd be surprised if the Twins weren't shopping Larnach, Rooker and Sano. As far as pitching is concerned, I'd be more inclined to believe the Twins expect to be able to make a waiver claim yet this spring.
  18. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from CapitalBabs in MLB Announces 2022 Minor League Experimental Rules   
    Robo umps are bad for the game. They remove controversy and fan engagement. Umpires get things wrong occasionally, but hating the ump is part of the game which gets the fans excited.
    How many times have the fans been engaged watching an angry manager trot out of the dugout arguing balls and strikes? How many times have cheers rained down on the field watching a manager get ejected for arguing those calls?
  19. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Melissa Berman in MLB Announces 2022 Minor League Experimental Rules   
    Yes. It's exactly the same general concept as fans cheering for fights in hockey, which I dislike... yet it's extremely popular. Though there is an enormous difference between a physical fist fight which can end careers and cause serious injury or death and a manager kicking dirt over a plate or offering to buy an umpire a lifetime subscription to Lens Crafters. A manager arguing balls and strikes amps up the crowd and the team. It's a fact and it's often considered an endearing trait for a manager.

    Fan and crowd engagement is important. Regardless of what a few people on this board like, the manager getting tossed or the crowd commiserating together over a bad call is fan engagement and baseball desperately needs more fan engagement.
  20. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Heiny in MLB Announces 2022 Minor League Experimental Rules   
    Robo umps are bad for the game. They remove controversy and fan engagement. Umpires get things wrong occasionally, but hating the ump is part of the game which gets the fans excited.
    How many times have the fans been engaged watching an angry manager trot out of the dugout arguing balls and strikes? How many times have cheers rained down on the field watching a manager get ejected for arguing those calls?
  21. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Melissa Berman in MLB Announces 2022 Minor League Experimental Rules   
    Robo umps are bad for the game. They remove controversy and fan engagement. Umpires get things wrong occasionally, but hating the ump is part of the game which gets the fans excited.
    How many times have the fans been engaged watching an angry manager trot out of the dugout arguing balls and strikes? How many times have cheers rained down on the field watching a manager get ejected for arguing those calls?
  22. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from ToddlerHarmon in Third and fourth outfielder   
    I'll take Rooker all day every day over Larnach. There's a lot of talk about how Larnach has power. Sure, line drive exit velocity, but he's slow as molasses in January and he hasn't converted the power into home run balls except in one season at Oregon State as a junior. Larnach didn't show power in his freshman or sophomore campaigns and it's never reappeared since. That leaves a single season of showing home run power in college several years ago and never in professional play. Not to mention Larnach was dumbfounded by MLB breaking and offspeed pitches and he wasn't able to deliver in AAA after his demotion, either.

    I believe Rooker's outfield play can take major steps forward as he's a decent runner by statcast metrics and he takes good routes to balls. It seems like Rooker's not aggressive enough as balls launch off the bat and his acceleration could use some work which leads to a terrible jump. Rooker seemed to be unlucky at the plate more than overmatched in my analysis as well.

    Sanchez is going to share time with Jeffers at catcher, at least to start the season. Jeffers was a near black hole at the plate last year in 293 plate appearances (not really a small sample) with a poor walk rate and a terrible strikeout rate. If Jeffers doesn't massively improve at the plate, Sanchez will be the every day catcher in short order.
     
  23. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from bighat in Third and fourth outfielder   
    I'll take Rooker all day every day over Larnach. There's a lot of talk about how Larnach has power. Sure, line drive exit velocity, but he's slow as molasses in January and he hasn't converted the power into home run balls except in one season at Oregon State as a junior. Larnach didn't show power in his freshman or sophomore campaigns and it's never reappeared since. That leaves a single season of showing home run power in college several years ago and never in professional play. Not to mention Larnach was dumbfounded by MLB breaking and offspeed pitches and he wasn't able to deliver in AAA after his demotion, either.

    I believe Rooker's outfield play can take major steps forward as he's a decent runner by statcast metrics and he takes good routes to balls. It seems like Rooker's not aggressive enough as balls launch off the bat and his acceleration could use some work which leads to a terrible jump. Rooker seemed to be unlucky at the plate more than overmatched in my analysis as well.

    Sanchez is going to share time with Jeffers at catcher, at least to start the season. Jeffers was a near black hole at the plate last year in 293 plate appearances (not really a small sample) with a poor walk rate and a terrible strikeout rate. If Jeffers doesn't massively improve at the plate, Sanchez will be the every day catcher in short order.
     
  24. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from glunn in Taylor Rogers and Twins Avoid Arbitration at $7.3MM   
    Taylor Rogers and the Twins agreed on a $7.3MM salary to avoid arbitration in Rogers' final year or arbitration eligibility. The great news here is the Twins must expect Rogers has fully recovered from his pulley tendon sheath injury, meaning it's likely Rogers made the right call by not having surgery it seemed like the Twins were pushing. This is a major boon for the Twins' bullpen; let's just hope Rogers' pulley tendon holds together this season and he can officially put the rare issue behind him permanently.

    https://www.startribune.com/twins-and-taylor-rogers-settle-at-7-3-million-avoid-arbitration/600158459/
  25. Like
    bean5302 got a reaction from Dman in Taylor Rogers and Twins Avoid Arbitration at $7.3MM   
    Taylor Rogers and the Twins agreed on a $7.3MM salary to avoid arbitration in Rogers' final year or arbitration eligibility. The great news here is the Twins must expect Rogers has fully recovered from his pulley tendon sheath injury, meaning it's likely Rogers made the right call by not having surgery it seemed like the Twins were pushing. This is a major boon for the Twins' bullpen; let's just hope Rogers' pulley tendon holds together this season and he can officially put the rare issue behind him permanently.

    https://www.startribune.com/twins-and-taylor-rogers-settle-at-7-3-million-avoid-arbitration/600158459/
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