bean5302

I won't call them "idiots" but I think their philosophy/strategy is very poor.

I like the AFL as a prospect-focused league. 
I like that the Twins primarily stopped playing any Instructional League games. They've all played enough games during the season, except some injured guys, so I like that the time spent there is based in learning and teaching, in fundamentals in a low-stress environment. The minor leaguers have been playing since March. The college draft picks have been playing since February. Even the high school kids taken have been playing since March or so. This is where the plethora of coaches and coordinators can work with players on their individual improvement programs. 

Though I agree with what you wrote about varland  let's not get ahead if ourselves  ...
Varland has been nothing but consistent through the minor leagues and I did expect varland to do well and he did ...
Really you need 3 years to evaluate what a player will be , there have been some exceptions ..
Give credit where credit is due  ...
Varland deserves another start 

Wallner is .308/.400/.577 for an OPS of .977 in August (last 6 games) after being ice cold in his first 10 games in AAA so his numbers are quickly correcting at this point. It's not like his number suggested he was overmatched. He wasn't striking out much and he was walking a fair bit since he was promoted. The sample sizes are too small to take anything from his time there.
Aside from that, no, Wallner is probably not the next guy up. Not till September when rosters expand because he's not on the 40 man.
 

The MLB leader has 24 starts this year.
Bundy has 20, on pace for 30 starts
Archer has 20. on pace for 30 starts
Ryan has 19. on pace for 27 starts.
Gray has 17. on pace for 24 starts.

I'm not sure if your world is realistic based on what you're writing. Do you expect relievers to never allow a home run?

Jax has 44 appearances. In 39 of those, he allowed 0-1 runs...
Thielbar has 46 appearances. In 43 of those, he's allowed 0-1 runs... and only 1 of the games where he's allowed more than 1 run has occurred in his last 44 appearances.
Why not throw Jhoan Duran under the bus like Thielbar and Jax? Duran has 3 games where he's allowed more than 1 run too.
We ditched Joe Smith, who had only allowed multiple earned runs twice this year, lol. 20% of the runs Smith allowed was from the fielders knocking balls down with concrete gloves. 

Perhaps you think that's sustainable and good relief pitchers are guaranteed to go out there and go 3 up and 3 down all the time?

In any case, Baldelli has been afforded several reliable relievers. He elected to use Duffey and Pagan all the time instead of giving Bundy or Archer another inning. Duffey still has the 3rd most innings of our relievers...

The MLB leader has 24 starts this year.
Bundy has 20, on pace for 30 starts
Archer has 20. on pace for 30 starts
Ryan has 19. on pace for 27 starts.
Gray has 17. on pace for 24 starts.

I'm not sure if your world is realistic based on what you're writing. Do you expect relievers to never allow a home run?

Jax has 44 appearances. In 39 of those, he allowed 0-1 runs...
Thielbar has 46 appearances. In 43 of those, he's allowed 0-1 runs... and only 1 of the games where he's allowed more than 1 run has occurred in his last 44 appearances.
Why not throw Jhoan Duran under the bus like Thielbar and Jax? Duran has 3 games where he's allowed more than 1 run too.
We ditched Joe Smith, who had only allowed multiple earned runs twice this year, lol. 20% of the runs Smith allowed was from the fielders knocking balls down with concrete gloves. 

Perhaps you think that's sustainable and good relief pitchers are guaranteed to go out there and go 3 up and 3 down all the time?

In any case, Baldelli has been afforded several reliable relievers. He elected to use Duffey and Pagan all the time instead of giving Bundy or Archer another inning. Duffey still has the 3rd most innings of our relievers...

Maybe the complainants about Rocco’s handling of the staff are getting old because he’s been mismanaging the staff for so long?   If he’s the manager next year, the Twins need to get 2-4 guys who can pitch 2-3 middle innings. 

Every single scouting report from every single source on Julien says the same thing. Lacks speed. Mediocre to weak arm, mediocre to weak defense. Bat first player.

From AA this year 13 stolen bases, 6 caught stealing. Julien has good instincts, but he lacks the physical ability to be good at stealing bases. Way, way easier to steal bases in the low minors.
Julien's range factor is 20% lower than his peers and his fielding percentage is well below average. Which also aligns with all the scouting reports. Weak arm, no speed, bat first. Every. Single. One. 

Here's Julien at 2B compared to his peers with the most innings on each team playing 2B in the Texas League. Julien's numbers are truly terrible. Now, some of Juliens numbers are no doubt from being handicapped with highly defensively challenged Austin Martin at SS, but the sheer drop off between peers and Julien is pretty stunning.
Player RF/9 Fielding Pct vs. Avg Leyba 5.03 0.989 21% Polcovich 4.45 0.978 6.70% Whitcomb 4.23 0.988 1.40% Stankiewicz 4.19 0.959 0.50% Dunn 4.16 0.979 -0.20% Massey 4.14 1.000 -0.70% Foscue 4.08 0.973 -2.10% Mann 3.89 0.973 -6.70% Julien 3.32 0.965 -20.80% Average 4.17 0.978  
 

It doesn't ignore the graduates and it doesn't ignore the trades. I talked about them. Guess you didn't read that far...

Wallner is .308/.400/.577 for an OPS of .977 in August (last 6 games) after being ice cold in his first 10 games in AAA so his numbers are quickly correcting at this point. It's not like his number suggested he was overmatched. He wasn't striking out much and he was walking a fair bit since he was promoted. The sample sizes are too small to take anything from his time there.
Aside from that, no, Wallner is probably not the next guy up. Not till September when rosters expand because he's not on the 40 man.
 

Wallner is .308/.400/.577 for an OPS of .977 in August (last 6 games) after being ice cold in his first 10 games in AAA so his numbers are quickly correcting at this point. It's not like his number suggested he was overmatched. He wasn't striking out much and he was walking a fair bit since he was promoted. The sample sizes are too small to take anything from his time there.
Aside from that, no, Wallner is probably not the next guy up. Not till September when rosters expand because he's not on the 40 man.
 

It never occurred to me until now to check, but SABR produces a lot of baseball publications each year and they have a style guide online. 
The guide is unambiguous that the plural form is RBIs. *
The SABR Style Guide is conversational in spots, and any amateur who is interested in aspects of how serious copy editors think, may find it interesting reading in its own right.  RBIs happens to be used as an example of the different needs of different kind of writing, up near the top.
 
* That frankly surprised me.  I thought I knew differently.  But what does anybody but me care about that?

Not sure why people mention "athleticism" with Wallner. He's been scouted as being a butcher in the field, but with a great arm. Maybe Wallner is improving in the field, too, but that's hard to judge without watching him and having better and more reliable metrics at the MLB level.

Wallner is .308/.400/.577 for an OPS of .977 in August (last 6 games) after being ice cold in his first 10 games in AAA so his numbers are quickly correcting at this point. It's not like his number suggested he was overmatched. He wasn't striking out much and he was walking a fair bit since he was promoted. The sample sizes are too small to take anything from his time there.
Aside from that, no, Wallner is probably not the next guy up. Not till September when rosters expand because he's not on the 40 man.
 

While a #1 prospect may not pan out and a #20 prospect may turn into a star, that's not usually how it goes. Teams typically value players they're looking to trade based on the types of prospects they want. Top 50, Top 100, 3 of the top 10 in a farm system, etc. Draft position (scouted tools) and actual performance generally combine to determine prospect ranking. 
In the MLB draft, there's a strong correlation between draft position and the likelihood a player makes the big show or becomes a star. It's open to debate how much of the success of top prospects might be helped by the kind of hands on attention and the special opportunities they might receive, the correlation is still there.
Basically, prospect rankings are not infallible, but teams often use prospect rankings as player value currency because there is strong correlation there. It's not a shot in the dark.

Wallner is .308/.400/.577 for an OPS of .977 in August (last 6 games) after being ice cold in his first 10 games in AAA so his numbers are quickly correcting at this point. It's not like his number suggested he was overmatched. He wasn't striking out much and he was walking a fair bit since he was promoted. The sample sizes are too small to take anything from his time there.
Aside from that, no, Wallner is probably not the next guy up. Not till September when rosters expand because he's not on the 40 man.
 

I DID read your article and all the comments, including yours, my friend.
Not everything I commented about was addressed in one fashion or another. A few points of distinction between your view and those of some of the experts come to mind. For example, your opinion that the system is pretty empty and that Falvey's living off the previous regime's draft results, and your opinion that the system very well could grade out as bottom 5. We'll know soon, but I really doubt that will be the case.
I get that fans tend to over-rate their own prospects, and I can certainly be guilty of that. You changed my thinking, for example, about Canterino's prospects. But I also think that guys like Larnach can be overlooked. There were 19 prospects selected ahead of him, and 15 of those picks appear headed to have less impressive careers that him.
I simply suspect that the system is in better shape than you think, and that Falvey, in pretty much every respect, has significantly improved the draft and development capabilities since taking over, not to mention what I think is an appreciable improvement in trading and other areas of player asset management.

I'm curious, which Falvey drafted and developed hitters were parlayed into pitchers? Pitcher Steve Hajjar and hitters Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were part of the Mahle trade just now, but I think that's literally about it.

Kenta Maeda was for pitcher Brusdar Graterol (Terry Ryan)
Chris Paddack was for pitcher Taylor Rogers (Bill Smith)
Sonny Gray was for pitcher Chase Petty (Derek Falvey)
Michael Fulmer was for pitcher Sawyer Gipson-Long (Derek Falvey)
Jorge Lopez was for pitchers Cade Povich (Derek Falvey) Yennier Cano (Terry Ryan), and 2 other pitchers.
Hitter Austin Martin and pitcher SWR were acquired for the best starter the Twins had developed in 15 years, Jose Berrios (Terry Ryan).

Nelson Cruz was flipped for Joe Ryan, but Cruz was a free agent signing and it would have been quite the gamble to predict he would play as well as he did. Big kudos to Falvey for finding that deal, it was great, but it hardly involved his front office doing what they were paid to do.

Free agency is part of the job, but not the big part which Derek Falvey was hired to address in my opinion. He was hired to build a sustainable farm system through drafting and development, especially of pitchers.
 

The farm system Derek Falvey inherited had graduated Sano, Polanco, Berrios, Rosario, Kepler and Buxton in the previous 2 years.

Compared to what? Gordon (Terry Ryan), Arraez (Terry Ryan), Miranda (Terry Ryan), Larnach, Jeffers, Winder, Ober.

Falvey's farm system is pretty empty and he's living off the previous regime's draft picks. Larnach has nearly 500 plate appearances with a wRC+ of 93 and iffy defense at the corner outfield position. Jeffers looks to be a solid backup catcher or maybe an adequate starter. Ober was a late round pick because of injuries and those have followed him throughout his career. Winder has been rebuilt with new mechanics which added massive velocity is seems his shoulder can't handle. Both Ober and Winder look destined for bullpen roles due to durability and neither was a highly rated prospect early on.

I'm curious, what stud Twins players are being under-appreciated due to injury right now?

How many playoff victories and World Series appearances do the Twins have under Falvey? If you want to give him a pass for failing to improve the farm system while "adjusting and responding" to the competitive needs of the team, he'd need to show achievements higher than the Twins have seen in the past 20 years. 

I'd be the first to forgive the state of the farm system if the Twins had some playoff victories or a World Series appearance recently. In fact, the Twins might make that happen this year so it's not like the book is closed or something. I applaud Falvey for recognizing the state of the farm system and finding a way to bring in the talent to plug holes the Twins needed to address to become a legitimate playoff caliber team this year. But there need to be results along with the adjustments.

I can admit I was horribly off the mark on Duran. It's clear his control issues have been addressed and the guy's stuff is just filthy as originally advertised. 
My biggest question on him right now is... will the Twins look to stretch him back out to a starter? He's made it clear he prefers to start and the potential upside of seeing Duran pitch 162+ innings in a season is really enticing. I'd think the Twins could make him an starter next year and limit him the same way they've limited Bundy and Archer this year.

Fangraphs didn't share your opinion, prior to the deadline, that Falvey's farm system is pretty empty. And, depending on one's definition of what a "stud" is, I'd argue that Mahle and Lopez qualify as studs, and they're a product of Falvey's farm system, as is Paddack, and who knows, maybe Brayan Medina becomes a stud later.
Royce Lewis will be a stud, IMO. The jury's out on Kirilloff and Larnach after fewer than 500 MLB AB's, especially given their injury histories. I think we may be slightly and pleasantly surprised at how the experts view the system in the next round of rankings.
And let's put things into context. Falvey's draft order since 2017 has averaged #16. Compare that to Detroit (#6) or KC (#9) or even CWS (#13), and keep in mind how greatly your odds improve when you have a top 5 choice, as Detroit has during Falvey's reign 4 out of 6 years, KC twice plus two other top 10's, and CWS with two top 5's. The Twins? Royce Lewis, and now Brooks Lee at #8. It's my opinion that the Twins have the second best draft and development capability in the division, and they're not far behing the Guardians, particularly when you factor in the IFA signings.
And again, I'll mention the value of depth, where the Twins have a decided edge over all but the Guardians. Are you possibly under-valuing this?

MLB has their issues, but so does everybody. I'm not a huge fan of Fangraphs since their updates seem a bit random. Some prospects have moved around, but all the notes are from last year. It's like rankings get updated, but there's seemingly little thought behind it. 

The farm system Derek Falvey inherited had graduated Sano, Polanco, Berrios, Rosario, Kepler and Buxton in the previous 2 years.

Compared to what? Gordon (Terry Ryan), Arraez (Terry Ryan), Miranda (Terry Ryan), Larnach, Jeffers, Winder, Ober.

Falvey's farm system is pretty empty and he's living off the previous regime's draft picks. Larnach has nearly 500 plate appearances with a wRC+ of 93 and iffy defense at the corner outfield position. Jeffers looks to be a solid backup catcher or maybe an adequate starter. Ober was a late round pick because of injuries and those have followed him throughout his career. Winder has been rebuilt with new mechanics which added massive velocity is seems his shoulder can't handle. Both Ober and Winder look destined for bullpen roles due to durability and neither was a highly rated prospect early on.

I'm curious, what stud Twins players are being under-appreciated due to injury right now?

While a #1 prospect may not pan out and a #20 prospect may turn into a star, that's not usually how it goes. Teams typically value players they're looking to trade based on the types of prospects they want. Top 50, Top 100, 3 of the top 10 in a farm system, etc. Draft position (scouted tools) and actual performance generally combine to determine prospect ranking. 
In the MLB draft, there's a strong correlation between draft position and the likelihood a player makes the big show or becomes a star. It's open to debate how much of the success of top prospects might be helped by the kind of hands on attention and the special opportunities they might receive, the correlation is still there.
Basically, prospect rankings are not infallible, but teams often use prospect rankings as player value currency because there is strong correlation there. It's not a shot in the dark.