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Matthew Lenz

Twins Daily Contributor
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  1. Like
    Matthew Lenz got a reaction from Doctor Gast in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    Yea but because he was inefficient with lots of deep counts and a decent number of walks. He often would have a high number of pitches, not allowing him to continue on. Moreover, the Twins have the 13th most innings from starters since 2019…they were actually ranked 7th from 2019 to 2020 before this abysmal season. You’re suggestion that Baldelli pulls plug too soon seems off base.
  2. Like
    Matthew Lenz got a reaction from glunn in Game Score: Twins 7, Royals 3   
    The Twins finish the season on a high note with back-to-back wins and a series victory over the Royals. They end one of the most disappointing seasons in MLB history with a record 73-89 and last place in the AL Central. That and more in today's recap!
    Box Score
    Charlie Barnes: 2.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER (3 R), 1 BB, 3 K
    Homeruns: Polanco (33), Buxton (19)
    Top 3 WPA: Polanco (.104), Minaya (.091), Vincent (.085)
    Win Probability Chart (via Fangraphs)

    Twins Offense Strikes Early
    It didn’t take but seven pitches for the Twins to take a three-run lead against rookie Jackson Kowar. After a single by Luis Arraez to start the game, Byron Buxton extended his MLB record with his 41st extra-base hit, and then Jorge Polanco went boom.
    The onslaught continued with a Josh Donaldson walk, Max Kepler single, and an RBI single from Miguel Sanó making it 4-0 Twins before they recorded their first out with a Brent Rooker strikeout. A Nick Gordon fielder's choice scored Kepler and then Ryan Jeffers struck out to end the inning with a 5-0 cushion for Charlie Barnes.

    The Twins were mostly quiet until the top of the lineup was due up for a third time in the top of the fifth. Arraez led off with another single before Buxton, once again, extended his MLB record with another extra-base hit…this time a four bagger to make it 7-0.
    That would be the last of the Twins threats of the day as they were only able to muster up two more hits, another came from Arraez, in the last three innings of play.
    Charlie Barnes Gets Knocked Out Early but Bullpen Finishes Year Strong
    For the first time all season, Barnes wasn’t able to give the Twins four innings as he was pulled after just eight outs. In his 2 ⅔ innings he allowed nine baserunners and three runs (two earned). He actually posted a respectable 13-percent whiff percentage but when the Royals made contact, they averaged an exit velocity of 106.2 miles per hour, which was ultimately his demise.

    Juan Minaya came on in relief and was able to hold the Royals to just the three runs followed by a two strikeout inning in the fourth.

    Nick Vincent shined in his two innings needing only 15 pitches to strikeout two Royals and get six outs.

    Not to be outdone by Vincent, Kyle Barraclough struck out the side in the seventh and added one more in the eighth before being pulled in favor of Jorge Alcala who finished the inning with a strikeout of his own.

    Alcala pitched a clean ninth with two strikeouts and earned his first career save after blowing his first four opportunities this year.
      WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Barraclough 0 14 0 0 36 50 Minaya 22 0 0 0 27 49 Thielbar 0 14 0 26 0 40 Farrell 0 0 38 0 0 38 Moran 0 0 38 0 0 38 Duffey 21 0 0 15 0 36 Alcalá 0 13 0 0 19 32 Vincent 0 16 0 0 15 31 Colomé 18 0 0 7 0 25 Coulombe 0 0 15 0 0 15 Garza Jr. 0 12 0 0 0 12
    View full article
  3. Like
    Matthew Lenz got a reaction from Squirrel in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    He’s be pretty solid this year! But how quickly you forget about Joe Ryan!
  4. Haha
    Matthew Lenz reacted to ashbury in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    What's he done for us lately, though?  Ober pitched today.
  5. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to Squirrel in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    So ... does tonight's game make Ober our new team ace?
  6. Like
    Matthew Lenz got a reaction from ashbury in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    And who won today?
  7. Like
    Matthew Lenz got a reaction from Twins33 in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    Yea but because he was inefficient with lots of deep counts and a decent number of walks. He often would have a high number of pitches, not allowing him to continue on. Moreover, the Twins have the 13th most innings from starters since 2019…they were actually ranked 7th from 2019 to 2020 before this abysmal season. You’re suggestion that Baldelli pulls plug too soon seems off base.
  8. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to TheLeviathan in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    Two things, quibbles I guess because I largely agree with the analysis:
    1. Part of why people hear "he's not good" is because the term "ace" is often weaponized against good pitchers to diminish them.  I often feel "ace" is defined in such a way that it is purposely unattainable.  Even when we had Johan we didn't fully appreciate how great an "ace" he was.  For the record, I don't think this is done with malice or intent, but nevertheless the effect in discussion has a an unfair slant IMO.
    2. I'll note again - in the postseason the idea that you win with aces is overstated.  Some of the best pitching performances of the last 20 years in the postseason were by dudes who were in street clothes or struggling to keep a job only a few years later.  
    Take 2019: Cole and Scherzer were great....but so was Mikolas and the Great Anibal Sanchez.  2018?  Joulys Chacin, Wade Miley, and Nathan Eovaldi.  You can look at every postseason and see that often it isn't the "ace" that pitches like one in the postseason.  I've long felt we put far too much emphasis on one dude who pitches three times in a series vs. a deep pitching roster that can flexibly pitch in every game, in many situations.  (Think...the Brewers in 2018 or the Royals deep bullpen, etc)
  9. Like
    Matthew Lenz got a reaction from wabene in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    Yea but because he was inefficient with lots of deep counts and a decent number of walks. He often would have a high number of pitches, not allowing him to continue on. Moreover, the Twins have the 13th most innings from starters since 2019…they were actually ranked 7th from 2019 to 2020 before this abysmal season. You’re suggestion that Baldelli pulls plug too soon seems off base.
  10. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to jun in Game Score: Blue Jays 5, Twins 3   
    I think it's time to let Cave and Astudillo go. Bring up Miranda and Contreras.
  11. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to weneedneshek in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    Been a lurker on this site for awhile but this definition of 'ace' finally motivated me to make an account. I have come up with a somewhat interesting way to define an "ace". It has to do with what I call a lockdown start. I define this as
    5-6 IP: 0 ER, 7 IP: 0-1 ER, or 8-9 IP: 0-2 ER
    If a pitcher has such a start in at least 25% of starts I consider that an 'ace' year. If a pitcher has done this in at least 2 out of their last 3 years I would call them an 'ace' pitcher.
    With that your 2021 aces are:  (AL) Ray, Cole, Rodon, Bassitt, Eovaldi. (NL) Wheeler, Scherzer, Urias, Buehler, Miley, Burnes, Woodruff, Gausman, Wainwright, Alcantara, Desclafani,
    Some notable exceptions: Peralta, Lynn, Ohtani, Kershaw (not enough IP) Musgrove, Stroman, Mccullers, Berrios (not enough lockdown starts)
    One might ask, how is Eovaldi with his 3.58 ERA an ace but Stroman with his 2.88 ERA is not? Well that is where some other stats come in handy. Eovaldi leads the AL with a 2.72 FIP. Stroman has a 3.27.
    I went with lockdown start as my metric because it evokes what a lot of us think of when we picture an 'ace'. Has a good chance to completely shutdown the opposing lineup everytime they take the mound. I quite literally have only had this idea in my head for the last 2 hours though so I'm sure there are holes and bad outliers, would love to hear further discussion.
  12. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to Squirrel in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    I think that's a pretty low standard. I'd qualify it to say, if he's the best pitcher on your team, and would be the best pitcher on almost every team, over more than one season, he'd be an ace.
  13. Like
    Matthew Lenz got a reaction from wsnydes in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    I also co-sign! It's funny because people think that by saying he's not an ace is the same as saying "he's not good" and that's just not the case. Like many have stated in here, Berrios is a good pitcher but I don't want him headlining my rotation heading into a postseason.
  14. Like
    Matthew Lenz got a reaction from nicksaviking in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    Yea but because he was inefficient with lots of deep counts and a decent number of walks. He often would have a high number of pitches, not allowing him to continue on. Moreover, the Twins have the 13th most innings from starters since 2019…they were actually ranked 7th from 2019 to 2020 before this abysmal season. You’re suggestion that Baldelli pulls plug too soon seems off base.
  15. Like
    Matthew Lenz got a reaction from Otto von Ballpark in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    I also co-sign! It's funny because people think that by saying he's not an ace is the same as saying "he's not good" and that's just not the case. Like many have stated in here, Berrios is a good pitcher but I don't want him headlining my rotation heading into a postseason.
  16. Like
    Matthew Lenz got a reaction from Squirrel in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    I also co-sign! It's funny because people think that by saying he's not an ace is the same as saying "he's not good" and that's just not the case. Like many have stated in here, Berrios is a good pitcher but I don't want him headlining my rotation heading into a postseason.
  17. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to Otto von Ballpark in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    It's fair to want more innings, but Berrios only threw 88 and 75 pitches in those two starts. 88 in 4 IP (vs NYY) isn't great but he set down the side in order on 12 pitches in his final inning -- it's not like he forced the Twins to remove him after 4 (although he likely wasn't going 6). And 75 in 5 IP (vs HOU) is pretty normal for any good pitcher -- his last inning saw a leadoff single stranded, 14 pitches thrown. It's certainly not Berrios's fault that he was removed at that point in that particular game.
    I'm not arguing Berrios is an ace -- I co-sign the Radke comp, a quality starting pitcher but ideally more of a postseason #2 -- but I'm also not sure how much his postseason record to date should be held against him.
  18. Like
    Matthew Lenz got a reaction from Mike Sixel in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    Yea but because he was inefficient with lots of deep counts and a decent number of walks. He often would have a high number of pitches, not allowing him to continue on. Moreover, the Twins have the 13th most innings from starters since 2019…they were actually ranked 7th from 2019 to 2020 before this abysmal season. You’re suggestion that Baldelli pulls plug too soon seems off base.
  19. Like
    Matthew Lenz got a reaction from Squirrel in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    You named a bunch of Twins #1 starters, many of whom would be middle to bottom of the rotation arms on most teams.
    To answer your question, the last ace was Johan Santana. You handed him the ball and had confidence your team was going to win.
  20. Like
    Matthew Lenz got a reaction from chpettit19 in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    His offense put up 5 runs in the first, the Twins offense sucks, and his opposing pitcher was one of the worst bullpens in baseball.
    If that’s what you want to hang your hat on then we have very different expectations for pitchers and will never see eye to eye on this.
  21. Like
    Matthew Lenz got a reaction from chpettit19 in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    Oh I completely agree with you. My biggest complaint of him has always been his inefficiency. Watching him dance around the strike zone with his plus “stuff” was frustrating as hell. IMO that’s the biggest limiting factor in his ceiling.
  22. Like
    Matthew Lenz got a reaction from chpettit19 in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    Yea but because he was inefficient with lots of deep counts and a decent number of walks. He often would have a high number of pitches, not allowing him to continue on. Moreover, the Twins have the 13th most innings from starters since 2019…they were actually ranked 7th from 2019 to 2020 before this abysmal season. You’re suggestion that Baldelli pulls plug too soon seems off base.
  23. Like
    Matthew Lenz got a reaction from wsnydes in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    The fact he left after 4 and 5 innings is a problem for me. Ultimately it didn't matter because the offense didn't produce, but if he's the pitcher that some people think he is, I need at least 6 innings.
  24. Like
    Matthew Lenz got a reaction from Taildragger8791 in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    The fact he left after 4 and 5 innings is a problem for me. Ultimately it didn't matter because the offense didn't produce, but if he's the pitcher that some people think he is, I need at least 6 innings.
  25. Like
    Matthew Lenz got a reaction from Squirrel in How do you define "ace" and is Jose Berríos one?   
    The fact he left after 4 and 5 innings is a problem for me. Ultimately it didn't matter because the offense didn't produce, but if he's the pitcher that some people think he is, I need at least 6 innings.
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