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Matthew Lenz

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  1. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to dex8425 in Quick Hitter: My Twins Awards Ballot   
    I think my MVP actually goes to Cruz, slightly over Kepler just because of Kepler's recent injury. 
    "Player we would have least liked to lose for the full season" would be Taylor Rogers. Remember how bad our bullpen was before the all star break? He was the only consistent guy in the pen. 
  2. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to jkcarew in Quick Hitter: My Twins Awards Ballot   
    Interesting...thanks for this!
    You really do have a bias for catchers ...you discount Sano as an MVP because he missed too many games...but give team MVP to Garver who played in significantly fewer games than did Sano. The top 3 MVP are Polanco, Cruz, and Kepler...almost any order, IMO.
    You’re pretty hard on Berrios. 200 innings pitched alone has to have him near the top.
    Sano belongs above Kepler in most improved. From .679 OPS in 299 PA to .923 in 439. He’s probably ahead of Polanco here, as well.
  3. Like
    Matthew Lenz got a reaction from Melissa in Quick Hitter: My Twins Awards Ballot   
    Yea, 1-4 was tough for me. And absolutely admitting my catcher bias
  4. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to Melissa in Quick Hitter: My Twins Awards Ballot   
    I agree about Arraez as Rookie of the Year, Garver as Most Improved, and Rogers as Pitcher of the Year.
    With all due nods in Garver's direction, though, I have to pick Cruz as most valuable. The missing defensive contribution as DH is more than compensated for with the power hitting in meaningful situations and the well-attested intangible of clubhouse leadership.
  5. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to gil4 in The Early Returns from Michael Pineda   
    Timely warning about his performance.  He gave back that "looks good up front" pretty quickly.  Obviously, the return is a process, and hopefully that was just a bump in the road, not the start of a trend.
  6. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to DocBauer in The Early Returns from Michael Pineda   
    Great write-up! And a lot of bard work involved.
    I liked the signing when it happened, and still like it. What I really like is his overall career numbers, when healthy. I like the way Rocco has used him thus far. Good health, I think he is a really nice 3rd SP who will get stronger as the season goes along, rebounding from his surgery.
  7. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to John Bonnes in Diving in to the Twins Schedule   
    I loved this Matthew. Thank you for doing it. 
    There must be some labor law I’m unaware of that teams will have at least one off day in a two-week period as the Twins play on 13 consecutive games at a few different points throughout the season.
    You're guessing right, I think. I've always heard that is the case. and if they need to make up a doubleheader on that off day, the players need to approve it. 
    I loved this format. I thought of a couple of different ways you could analyze this is you want to continue.
    1. Assuming the most important games of the season are versus the other likely Wild Card contenders (which, per Vegas, are the Angels, A's and Rays), when are the most important stretches of the season.
    2. If you (or someone else) are mathematically inclined, you could use the Vegas over/under values to determine a strength of schedule for each month. Like how many wins or losses above average is the schedule for that month. (Or even each homestand/road trip). If you want to see the methodology up close, I did so here:
  8. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to David HK in Diving in to the Twins Schedule   
    Too often, though, the Twins have needed a stretcher after the stretch after the break.
  9. Like
    Matthew Lenz got a reaction from David HK in Diving in to the Twins Schedule   
    Totally agree, that stretch after the All Star Break could have pretty big implications on how the Twins handle the trade deadline.
  10. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to theBOMisthebomb in Diving in to the Twins Schedule   
    It will be fun to watch Brian Dozier come back to town. I am also hoping that Tim Tebow is in the majors when the Mets play at Target Field.
  11. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to JLease in My 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot   
    I don't care one way or the other about Bonds or Clemens any longer. Both were almost certainly HoF quality before they started cheating, so whatever. I don't know whether it's better to vote 'em in to get rid of their presence on the ballot or let 'em stew. I'd hate for their entrance to be a signal that "nah, who cares about cheating and using dangerous drugs if you throw that baseball hard or hit enough dingers!", though.
    Agree on Edgar Martinez, Mariano Rivera, and Larry Walker. Easy choices to me: Edgar was an absolute machine as a hitter, wasn't as bad a 3B as his rep, and should definitely be in. Mariano might actually get 100% on his first ballot. Larry Walker wasn't just a great hitter, he was always a great fielder and baserunner. And he hit everywhere he played. Great hitter in Montreal, great hitter in Colorado, great hitter in St. Louis.
    I'm a no on Manny. Elite hitter, but awful defensive player and bad teammate. Admitted cheater, and kept cheating after an understanding had been reached on what was and wasn't ok. His PED use wasn't a mistake or part of the wild wild west, so why let him off the hook?
    Sheffield is a no as well, I think. Another disastrous defender, I think he's below the standard and he's another guy who racked up All-star appearances he probably didn't deserve. Terrific hitter when healthy, but didn't add much else and he needed to hang on for a few junky years to get over 500 HRs.
    Sosa is also a no, I think. Too much of his overall value and stat accumulation was in a pretty short period and that was also almost certainly chemically enhanced. That's a hard vote for a guy who fell apart so quickly, basically cooked at age 35.
    Scott Rolen is a guy I'd definitely vote for. Fantastic defensive player, excellent hitter, and one of the elite 3B of all time. Despite the injuries, he was still elite.
    Mike Mussina is a definite yes as well. Absolute workhorse, consistently great. During an offensive explosion he was one of the best at keeping runs off the board. He's a no doubter for me.
    Curt Schilling is one I'd consider voting for, despite the fact that he's become an increasingly reprehensible human being. Not as consistent as Mussina, but a higher peak in fact. Had some absolutely huge years and was one of the premiere strikeout artists of his time. A big game pitcher to be sure, but that's just icing on the cake. Hard to vote for him, because of all the other crap that's he's gotten into after retiring, though.
    Helton, Halladay, and Andruw Jones all deserve some consideration. I'm probably yes on Doc Halladay, need to think about Helton some more, and no on Jones. Halladay didn't have the longest career, and it took him a few years to become the monster he became but that 10 year run from 2002-2011...man, he was great.
  12. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to SomeGuy in My 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot   
    My issue with PED users not being in the HOF is that we will never know the true scope of it. We know steroids were prevalent in baseball during the 70's, why do we treat Hank Aaron differently than Barry Bonds?
    Punishing 2-3 players under the assumption of using is not fair when there is so much certainty that 4 decades or more have been clouded with steroids.
    I would vote Bonds and Clemens if it were up to me.
  13. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to nclahammer in My 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot   
    IMO Halladay, simply put...doesn't have the career stats (not even close) for the HOF and I hope MLB doesn't start going NFL-like and letting everybody who had good post-season or Super Bowl stats, get enshrined (see Joe Namath as one example.)  IMO Bonds, Sosa, and Clemens, and other steroid-tied players do not belong in the HOF period.
  14. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to SomeGuy in My 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot   
    Good list.  I would agree that everyone on it should be in the HOF.  I don't buy into the first ballot thing.  If they are in what I view as the top 10 players on the ballot I would vote for them.  I wouldn't consider if I think they are 1st ballot worthy or not, just a simple who is my top 10.
    I do think Coors Field should factor into the decision but Helton and Walker are still probably good enough.  Walker played 7.5 seasons on different teams too.  They both have pretty crazy home/away splits though.  I can buy a hitter playing better at home but .170-.180 points of OPS better seems like park factor.
    Helton home   .332/.435/.565   away  .285/.391/.442
    Walker home  .337/.449/.592   away   .271/.377/.487
  15. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to Han Joelo in Felix Jorge Update   
    Thanks--he's a personal fave, for whatever reason.  Good update.  Hope he comes back strong.  I think he's got moxie.
  16. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to DuluthFan in Making Room for Ervin   
    Seems like Romero has just thrown his hat into the ring for making room for Santana / May.
  17. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to Sconnie in Making Room for Ervin   
    Romero has been their best pitcher. Are you really going to demote him?
    Over the next 30 days, odds are someone is going to become hurt or ineffective. It'll probably sort itself out. More likely May will come off the DL first. I assume he'll get optioned to AAA. 
    If everyone stays healthy and effective through June, there's always a trade. I'd try a 6 man rotation until the end of July and swing a trade for a Catcher or 4th outfielder.  
  18. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to tarheeltwinsfan in Making Room for Ervin   
    What about Lynn to the bullpen? Or trade Lynn to a contender for some prospects.
  19. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to lukeduke1980 in Making Room for Ervin   
    I assume Romero has an innings limit so to me a move to the bullpen lengthens his season.  I prefer that at least to option 1 and/or a Mid-august shutdown.
  20. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to DocBauer in Season Preview: Felix Jorge   
    Right now, I'd slot him behind Slegers as well for a call up. And that's not a knock on him, but the reality of Slegers having more AAA time.
    I think you're spot on with him as a solid back end SP, with his role probably being a long and swing man. To me, despite being a very different pitcher overall, he reminds me of Stewart. If he could just get that 3rd pitch to really develop, he might take off.
  21. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to theBOMisthebomb in Season Preview: Felix Jorge   
    Does he have a chance to bulk up that 6'2" frame and gain some power?
  22. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to Matt Johnson in Q & A with Clyde "The Guide" Doepner, Twins Curator   
    Very cool. Do you happen to know what year he graduated from St. Paul North? I know he was on the Polars' 1961 state championship team along with future Astros pitcher Don Arlich. It was Arlich's senior season, but I don't know about Doepner. 
  23. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to TwinsFan50 in Q & A with Clyde "The Guide" Doepner, Twins Curator   
    Make sure to click on ZONE COVERAGE link at the beginning of the post. An 11 minute video of Clyde will warm anyone's heart.
  24. Like
    Matthew Lenz got a reaction from mikelink45 in Student Mailbag: Homerun Rates v. Strikeout Rates   
    You pose a very interesting question here and lots of good information.
    I do feel that hitters are changing their approach at the plate which is resulting in more strikeouts which would mean it's easier on the pitchers now.  I think your last two paragraphs kind of prove this point. 
  25. Like
    Matthew Lenz reacted to Secondary User in Student Mailbag: Homerun Rates v. Strikeout Rates   
    I'd expand by looking at Whiff Rate.  Separate the hackers from the guys who are swinging with purpose
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