Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Brock Beauchamp

Administrator
  • Posts

    26,970
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    267

Reputation Activity

  1. Like
    Brock Beauchamp got a reaction from Squirrel in New Offseason Handbook roster creation tool, check it out!   
    I created a new version meant to be shared on the Twins Daily forums. If you're interested in drafting your own 2022 Twins roster, click the link, follow the instructions, and then share with other TD users!
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nGl43AI-uCoLwNJd89vhYi6l3CBD42yBF7tfY2o3A40/copy?usp=sharing
  2. Like
    Brock Beauchamp got a reaction from Otto von Ballpark in Deja Vu - Buxton Extension and Mauer Extension   
    Welcome to the board!
    I see your point but remember, the Twins are NOT a small market team. We need to erase that idea from our collective heads. They’re a mid-market team, possibly a little toward the bottom end of mid.
    The Twins afforded Donaldson just fine. His contract could be moved, at least in part, this off-season. But even if it’s not moved, it’s gone in two seasons. Given the number of cost-controlled players they have, (eg. Polanco) the Twins, should they choose to take the route of signing Buxton AND a good pitcher, could easily do so. 
  3. Like
    Brock Beauchamp got a reaction from Nine of twelve in Eddie Rosario   
    I think this is the nature of the modern game with its massive roster churn. Everybody has played for every team, it seems. 
  4. Like
    Brock Beauchamp reacted to Otto von Ballpark in Why isn't Johan Santana in the Hall of Fame?   
    The other problem with the "3 Cy Youngs" criteria is that it while it usually indicates a pretty darn good pitcher, we know it's not the only criteria for HOF induction. Just looking over 21st century inductees, Mussina and Schilling didn't win a single Cy Young between them, and using "led their league in pitching WAR" as a proxy for deserving a Cy Young, they only did it once combined (Mussina 2001). So which is more important, Cy Young awards or their 80+ career WAR?
    Similarly, Smoltz won only 1 Cy Young, never led his league in pitcher WAR -- so which was more important to his HOF induction, the award or his 66 career WAR?
    FWIW, Santana is at 51.1 WAR. Is leading his league 3 times in pitching WAR enough to overcome the career WAR difference?
  5. Like
    Brock Beauchamp reacted to Brandon in my 2022 roster   
    So I went into this and figured there are several key factors that need to happen. 
    1.  the Twins sign Buxton to an extension.  I don't have the specifics for how the incentives will play out but apparently the base pay of around 10 million is agreed to as a good start.  So lets get the incentives together and finish this deal.
    2.  From rotations of Twins past, the Twins have always found value on the Free Agent market.  And they go for an average rotation.  That is just reality.  Since it seems there is a good chance the Twins will resign Pineda if for nothing else to give the rotation 3 starters and allow the team to work from the position of only needing 1 more starter to give us a mostly competent rotation going into next year.  in 2021, I think one of our biggest problems was that our 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th starters were all hurt almost all season.  in 2022 we have 5 starters who are near ready to pitch in the majors.  And with how I reshape our rotation we will have 2 long relievers in the pen who could start or pitch several innings in a game out of the pen.  We also have depth like Jax, Barnes and maybe Smeltzer to be a 12th, 13th, or 14th starter.....  You can never have too much pitching right?  So with all of our own prospects coming up I have us signing Matz to a 2 year 25 million contract.  He is good for 5 innings and gives us a chance to win and a lefty for the rotation.  Gray is the other starter I signed to a 4 year 60 million contract with a 5th option to make it a 75 million deal.  With us having 5 prospects and the return of Maeda, I wasn't sure if this was overkill for our rotation.  But since I didn't go crazy spending anywhere else, I figured why not.  We could plug any number of starters in place of Matz or Gray.  There is also Alex Wood, DeSclafani, Stroman, Danny Duffey, Alex Cobb, Garrett Richards, Brett or Tyler Anderson, Eduardo Rodriguez..... With 5 prospects in AA and AAA and Maeda coming back from a modified tommy John surgery, we have options if we want to sign someone replaceable like Heaney or use Gant or Dobnak in the rotation to save some money.  We also have the tools for a trade here with Florida or Oakland.  I see one potential mid term contract and a short term contract for the rotation.  And the need for depth.  
    In the pen I didn't make many moves.  nothing earth shattering.  It just feels like we have enough internally to make it work.  I can see us signing players on the cheap to compete for spots.  and if we get an extra starter then we may not need Gant for next season either.  and then we could sign a reliever.  Moran is at the ready to be called up, 
    As for the lineup, we already talked about Buxton.  I am advocating for Chris Taylor to be signed as he won't require as long of a commitment and he doesn't block Lewis at SS long term.  Chris Taylor can be the next utility player to play everyday starting in 2023 if need be.  Or he could stay at SS a little longer.  The positions will be in flux as players rotate around to give the team flexibility.  I see Sano getting the most time at DH but also see Donaldson, Rooker, Killeroff, and others some time there throughout the season.  Killeroff, Garver and Sano will man 1B, Donaldson, Arraez, and Miranda at 3B.  I see Miranda getting some time in LF along with Rooker, Martin, Killeroff and Larnarch and whoever is the hot bat will  get the bulk of the time.  If more then 1 bat succeeds in LF don't be surprised to see Kepler lose some playing time in RF.  or if/ when Buxton misses time one of the other hitters can get some time there.  
    On the bench, I see Gordon, and Arraez as the 2 go to players and Jeffers as the back up Catcher.  As for the 4th OF it could be that 3 OFers Rooker, Miranda, or Martin and Kepler rotate regularly to keep everyone fresh.  If Astudillo and Refsnyder do not latch on with other teams I can see the Twins signing them to AAA deals.  The Twins love them some depth and until the end of last season when Astudillo cratered he was a league average bat and could play almost anywhere.  I do not have him on the bench to start the season but he is there to provide depth.  
    And lastly, If the Twins Budget is 130 million vs the 136 million I used, then I see the Twins only signing 1 starter this offseason and it could be any one of a number of mid rotation starters like Gray or Matz.  Someone capable of going 5-6 innings for around 15 million per season The other starter would likely be Gant or Dobnak to start the season.  That would free up 5-6 million for another reliever.  since one of our relievers would go into the rotation...  
    Analysis:  We end up with a pitching staff that would be ranked 5-8 in the league.  I think slightly above average but not by much and an offense that just mashes and finishes in the top 3-4 in scoring.  We end up +120 - +150 in runs scored vs runs against and win around 88-93 games and make the playoffs.  
  6. Like
    Brock Beauchamp reacted to SoDakTwin in Deja Vu - Buxton Extension and Mauer Extension   
    Hey everyone!  Long time follower and first time poster!

    Here is my probably unpopular opinion of Buxton.  I think we need to trade him or spend that money it would take to sign him on pitching.  I just don't see us winning a World Series in the next 4-5 years with him.  IMO a team has a better chance of winning the WS by spending the money that would go to Buxton on pitching versus signing him.  With the young arms we acquired in trades this year and IF (big if) they live up to that potential, I could see us contending again in a few years.  We have quality young arms and quality young bats in the minors on the cusp of making an impact.  Spend the money that would be allocated to Buxton on young pitching or trade for a blue chip prospect and I think we could be dangerous in a few years.  I hate the comparison of Buxton to Trout but what have the Angels done with the best player in history potentially?  Nothing, because they haven't had the pitching.

    My whole argument is based in the fact that we will never win the WS via free agency.  We will win it by our young prospects living up to their potential and having a couple awesome years before they hit free agency and bolt.  Like the Royals in 2015.  Buxton is fantastic.  He is an otherworldly talent.  But a small market team like us can't have so many eggs in one basket.  Especially one who is injured often.  Feel free to rip me!
  7. Like
    Brock Beauchamp got a reaction from mikelink45 in Why isn't Johan Santana in the Hall of Fame?   
    Wait. JOHAN HAS 51 WAR ON B-REF???!???
    I swear I checked this like six months ago and it was mid-30s but now it is definitely over 50.
    Brock confused. 
  8. Like
    Brock Beauchamp got a reaction from Sconnie in New Offseason Handbook roster creation tool, check it out!   
    I created a new version meant to be shared on the Twins Daily forums. If you're interested in drafting your own 2022 Twins roster, click the link, follow the instructions, and then share with other TD users!
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nGl43AI-uCoLwNJd89vhYi6l3CBD42yBF7tfY2o3A40/copy?usp=sharing
  9. Like
    Brock Beauchamp reacted to chpettit19 in Hey Rocco - did you hear this?   
    They did skip his last start. Whether or not we should believe the injury story I don't know. But I believe the reasoning for not doing more innings in fewer starts is that the science/data/medical people say most of the arm injury problems come from overuse in a single session (game) more than too many sessions (games). All the starters throw everyday, but they get hurt from throwing high effort pitches after their arm has hit it's limit that day. Not saying that's all right, but I believe that's the reasoning.
    Ober threw 16 minor league innings this year. Obviously not a ton, but not nothing. That gave him 108.1 on the year. That's the most he's ever thrown in a season in his life (assuming he wasn't throwing 110 innings a season in HS). The Twins had a plan for him, and all their starters, coming into the season. It was based on science/data/medical people. They had a general plan for him in every start. But they also tracked his spin rates, velo, extension on release, and probably 10 other data points during his starts. They could see when he started to tire (lower spin rates and velo, shorter extension on release, etc.) and would then go to their bullpen/lineup matchup plan and set up a plan for when to take him out. I think fans sometimes fail to understand just how much goes into these decisions.
    I get that fans want starters to go longer. I want starters to go longer. But I think there's more that goes into it than the classic "100 pitches and you're done" thought. There's also something to be said for Ober's body getting used to having to pitch every 5th/6th day until the end of September. I think a jump to 150ish innings for him is a reasonable goal for next year. Maybe it's only 140, but somewhere in that 140-160 range. That's a jump of 30-50 innings. More than doable I'd think. I'd expect we see far fewer times that he's pulled before making it through 5 innings (assuming he's pitching well) next year. Maybe not a bunch of 7 inning starts, but probably a few. I think they'll have a completely different plan for him.
  10. Like
    Brock Beauchamp reacted to chpettit19 in Hey Rocco - did you hear this?   
    Old, tired, and incorrect take. The Twins had the 9th best ERA in baseball in 2019. They lead the AL, and were second to the Dodgers in all of baseball, in fangraphs WAR for pitching staffs in 2019 and 2020 combined. This is how the game is played now. The Twins were right where every other ML team was in starter innings per start this year, and every year since Rocco took over. 
    The Twins had a plan coming into the year to lighten starter workloads early as they built back up from either 60 game or 0 game seasons. Berrios ended with the 2nd most innings pitched in the AL this year because Rocco let him go when he was good. Outside of that 1 game from the Astros this postseason they've averaged less than 3 innings per start. They're at 3.1 even with that 8 inning start. When pitchers are bad (like most of the Twins starters were this year) managers pull them. Obviously a quicker trigger in the playoffs, but this idea that Rocco is doing something wild and pulling everyone early is flat out ignoring the way baseball is played and managed at the major league level now.
    But, seriously, lets stop with this "Rocco only has a good record because of the HR record." It's provably wrong.
  11. Like
    Brock Beauchamp got a reaction from Mike Sixel in Responsiveness of Post Pages on Mobile (Chrome) Browser   
    I'm knee-deep in the handbook but will try to address this as soon as I am able.
  12. Like
    Brock Beauchamp got a reaction from LA VIkes Fan in 40-Man Issues - The Minors   
    I think it's a mistake to expose Jax to be claimed before he gets a shot at the bullpen. He has all the makings of a solid reliever.
  13. Like
    Brock Beauchamp got a reaction from nicksaviking in Deja Vu - Buxton Extension and Mauer Extension   
    Welcome to Twins Daily!
  14. Like
    Brock Beauchamp got a reaction from Zach Hartford in Why isn't Johan Santana in the Hall of Fame?   
    Also, outstanding post, welcome to Twins Daily!
  15. Like
    Brock Beauchamp got a reaction from chpettit19 in Hey Rocco - did you hear this?   
    Exactly this. I like Dusty Baker. He’s wildly respected throughout the game and seems like a good dude.
    I also don’t want him within 100 ft of the team I cheer on a nightly basis. 
  16. Like
    Brock Beauchamp got a reaction from Nine of twelve in Hey Rocco - did you hear this?   
    Yeah, if only everyone was more like Dusty Baker with his immaculate postseason record. Step aside Cora, Hinch, and Roberts, Dusty Baker's on the job.

     
     
  17. Like
    Brock Beauchamp got a reaction from TopGunn#22 in Why isn't Johan Santana in the Hall of Fame?   
    Wait. JOHAN HAS 51 WAR ON B-REF???!???
    I swear I checked this like six months ago and it was mid-30s but now it is definitely over 50.
    Brock confused. 
  18. Like
    Brock Beauchamp got a reaction from big dog in Hey Rocco - did you hear this?   
    Exactly this. I like Dusty Baker. He’s wildly respected throughout the game and seems like a good dude.
    I also don’t want him within 100 ft of the team I cheer on a nightly basis. 
  19. Like
    Brock Beauchamp reacted to jmlease1 in Hey Rocco - did you hear this?   
    Just out of curiosity...why is it Rocco that "needs to hear this", anyway? If you really think twins pitchers need to be left out longer, then you better direct this critique at Wes Johnson, Derek Falvey, and Thad Levine too. pretty sure they're all on the same page right now in terms of pitcher usage. (and they're hardly Captain Hook on starters in comparison to the rest of MLB)
    Also, I never want Dusty Baker near my pitchers. Cubs fans would agree (old school Dusty let Kerry Wood chuck 120+ pitches 12 times in 2003. Mark Prior threw over 120 pitches in 5 out of 6 starts in Sept that year. neither pitcher was ever the same after 2003, Prior was out of the league in 2007 and after 3 injury filled seasons, Wood had to move to the bullpen to keep his arm from falling off).
  20. Like
    Brock Beauchamp reacted to TheLeviathan in Hey Rocco - did you hear this?   
    You think pitching the bad starting pitchers more would've been a better strategy?  Or would it be burning out young arms unprepared for the workload and potentially harming their careers?  Which part sounds like winning to you?
  21. Haha
    Brock Beauchamp reacted to cHawk in Hey Rocco - did you hear this?   
  22. Like
    Brock Beauchamp reacted to nicksaviking in Hey Rocco - did you hear this?   
    As a baseball fan and a guy who appreciates the history of the game, Dusty Baker is pretty much the ONLY thing I like about this post season.
    But he's the kind of guy I like from a distance and on somebody else's favorite team. I absolutely do not want the Twins to go back to the old school type of manager. Rocco might not be the right guy, but I don't want a throwback.
  23. Like
    Brock Beauchamp reacted to TheLeviathan in Hey Rocco - did you hear this?   
    Rocco Baldelli's pitcher usage is absolutely in line with the rest of baseball.
  24. Like
    Brock Beauchamp got a reaction from wsnydes in Hey Rocco - did you hear this?   
    Yeah, if only everyone was more like Dusty Baker with his immaculate postseason record. Step aside Cora, Hinch, and Roberts, Dusty Baker's on the job.

     
     
  25. Like
    Brock Beauchamp got a reaction from Sconnie in Hey Rocco - did you hear this?   
    Yeah, if only everyone was more like Dusty Baker with his immaculate postseason record. Step aside Cora, Hinch, and Roberts, Dusty Baker's on the job.

     
     
×
×
  • Create New...