Estimating the Time of Arrival for the Top 10 Twins Prospects

I enjoyed the review.  I do not like the high ranking of Soto - I need to see him play first, but otherwise it is a nice list with a lot of youth.  As far as arrival - that is really tough, I cannot argue with your choices, but we have seen so many things happen - how many years were we waiting for Lewis and then all the fluke accidents.  

With the Buxton situation we have Martin projected as a CF, but his career has been more 2B so wait and see.  We have already burned out one CF prospect by calling him up to early and now he is no longer even a prospect if he is still with us.

And arms!  Does it matter that they have allowed Raya to only throw 4 innings?  Is it frequency, pitch selection, physiology, or innings that harm their rotators and ulners?

Let’s review position players by year.

2024 (2): Martin, Lee (but let’s no forget Larnach, Miranda, Wallner, Julien,  plus Lewis and Kiriloff) 

2025 (5): Rodriguez, Schobel, Rosario, Severino, Camargo

2026 (4): Jenkins, Keaschall, Miller, Andrade

That’s 11 debuting position players (plus 6 already debuted youngsters) over the next 3 seasons who could carve out a starting or supporting role on the roster. I’m sure I’m missing a few as well.

Some subset of these players will be the core of the Twins over the second half of this decade.  It certainly appears to be a solid foundation.

The question is: are there any true superstar players among them? You know, real difference makers who can carry a team if need be and who are likely to make several All Star teams.  Our best bets (in order) are probably: Jenkins, Lewis, Rodriguez, Lee, and Julien.

9 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Let’s review position players by year

2024 (2): Martin, Lee (but let’s no forget Larnach, Miranda, Wallner, Julien plus Lewis and Kiriloff) 

2025 (5): Rodriguez, Schobel, Rosario, Severino, Camargo

2026 (4): Jenkins, Keaschall, Miller, Andrade

I would expect Camargo in 2024. He's on the roster and catchers get injured. I also expect to see Severino next season.

12 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Let’s review position players by year.

2024 (2): Martin, Lee (but let’s no forget Larnach, Miranda, Wallner, Julien,  plus Lewis and Kiriloff) 

2025 (5): Rodriguez, Schobel, Rosario, Severino, Camargo

2026 (4): Jenkins, Keaschall, Miller, Andrade

That’s 11 debuting position players (plus 6 already debuted youngsters) over the next 3 seasons who could carve out a starting or supporting role on the roster. I’m sure I’m missing a few as well.

Some subset of these players will be the core of the Twins over the second half of this decade.  It certainly appears to be a solid foundation.

The question is: are there any true superstar players among them? You know, real difference makers who can carry a team if need be and who are likely to make several All Star teams.  Our best bets (in order) are probably: Jenkins, Rodriguez, Lee, and Julien.

And Lewis

These are all expected best case scenarios for these prospects.  I would recommend a range for the prospects below AA.  
 

AA players you can project will be on the MLB team within a season or two.  A ball players have farther to go and it’s harder to project when a player will succeed.  Case in point a few years ago Enlow was a top prospect.  We would have him up by now and we would all be wrong.  But he could still make it up as a reliever.  Or spot starter or swing man.  And it could be next year but when he was a top prospect it was 2018 and 2019with a 2 year expected arrival time when it will take closer to 5 years.  

Very nice well researched and written article.  Well done.  Can't argue with any of your predictions.  These are all just prospects at this point.  Nothing more and nothing less.  Hopefully a couple of them work out and stick with the Twins.  Most prospects don't make it as we all know.  But good luck.

I agree with the estimated timelines, but that is always based on general linier progression of the player.  Some players will not progress, and some will progress faster than expected.  Also injuries always play a roll.  For example, if Jenkins tears up both levels of A ball this year, and some injuries set in on OF in 2025, he could get an early call if he is tearing up AA.  Not saying likely, but possible.  I would say if he tears of up all levels he will be possible at starting 2026 out of camp. 

21 minutes ago, Brandon said:

And Lewis

Oops.  Duh.  My bad. Thanks.  Edited my comment above.  👍🏻

17 minutes ago, arby58 said:

If you're going to include Julien, you need to include Lewis as well - IF he can stay healthy, he looks like the Twins number 3 hitter in the lineup, maybe until Jenkins displaces him.

100% correct - I stupidly forgot Lewis.  Edited above.  Thank you.

52 minutes ago, 4twinsJA said:

There are not as many on verge of making MLB debut with so many prospects getting the call the past 2 years.

Not from our top ten but there are some pieces at AAA that could be ready to fill in for the Twins in 2024 - Prato, Helman, Kiersey to name a few (they do have to make it past the Rule 5 draft which I am predicting that they all will do that).

32 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Let’s review position players by year.

2024 (2): Martin, Lee (but let’s no forget Larnach, Miranda, Wallner, Julien,  plus Lewis and Kiriloff) 

2025 (5): Rodriguez, Schobel, Rosario, Severino, Camargo

2026 (4): Jenkins, Keaschall, Miller, Andrade

That’s 11 debuting position players (plus 6 already debuted youngsters) over the next 3 seasons who could carve out a starting or supporting role on the roster. I’m sure I’m missing a few as well.

Some subset of these players will be the core of the Twins over the second half of this decade.  It certainly appears to be a solid foundation.

The question is: are there any true superstar players among them? You know, real difference makers who can carry a team if need be and who are likely to make several All Star teams.  Our best bets (in order) are probably: Jenkins, Rodriguez, Lee, and Julien.

Debut versus regular player. There is a difference. To have 11 players over 3 years is not an unreasonable hope. They might not all make it for some reason, like an inability to hit a major league off speed pitch.. There may be some who lose time to injury. 

59 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Let’s review position players by year.

2024 (2): Martin, Lee (but let’s no forget Larnach, Miranda, Wallner, Julien,  plus Lewis and Kiriloff) 

2025 (5): Rodriguez, Schobel, Rosario, Severino, Camargo

2026 (4): Jenkins, Keaschall, Miller, Andrade

That’s 11 debuting position players (plus 6 already debuted youngsters) over the next 3 seasons who could carve out a starting or supporting role on the roster. I’m sure I’m missing a few as well.

Some subset of these players will be the core of the Twins over the second half of this decade.  It certainly appears to be a solid foundation.

The question is: are there any true superstar players among them? You know, real difference makers who can carry a team if need be and who are likely to make several All Star teams.  Our best bets (in order) are probably: Jenkins, Lewis, Rodriguez, Lee, and Julien.

A set of these players will not be directly part of the future, but will be traded away to fill immediate needs in the rotation.

58 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I would expect Camargo in 2024. He's on the roster and catchers get injured. I also expect to see Severino next season.

I agree about Camargo.  I actually think with payroll being cut, there is a chance that Vazquez gets traded as it is a luxury to carry two starting catchers.

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I would expect Camargo in 2024. He's on the roster and catchers get injured. I also expect to see Severino next season.

I was thinking the same ..

With the young hitting talent on the current roster, all we need is the following

2024

Martin, Lee, Camargo, Severino

2025

Rodriguez

2026

Jenkins, Wonokur (with Scoobel, Keaschall, and Miller at AAA to call up in case of injuries)

My big concern is the dearth of available pitching prospects. That's where we should spend any free coins jiggling around in the owners' pockets.

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I know the 2026 timeline is probably the most realistic for Jenkins, and debuting at 21 is very nice, but it feels like a disappointing timeline at the same time. If his debut was any real sign of his talent, and not just a flash in the pan of beginner's luck, I think it's pretty darn realistic to think he could end 2024 in AA. And if he does that the 2nd half of 2025 would be a pretty reasonable debut timeline. And if he's the superstar we all hope he is, that's the timeline I think we should be hoping for, even though we shouldn't necessarily be expecting it.

Jackson Holliday just went from Low-A to AAA in his first full season. I'm not even expecting that from Jenkins, but being 1 step below that at AA feels doable after his debut this year. For comparison: Jenkins in 26 games between rookie ball and A ball .362/.417/.571 (.989) at age 18. Jackson Holliday in 20 games between rookie ball and A ball .297/.489/.422 (.911) at age 18. So I'm not being too crazy here. I just think only advancing from A to A+ would be a slightly disappointing result for 2024.

That's fair. Jenkins is a major talent and so far has met every challenge with seeming ease. But a high school draft pick debuting at 21 is still pretty fantastic. That's the Joe Mauer path, and Jenkins is already a little ahead of that (Joe spent his first season in rookie ball, Jenkins has low-A games under his belt). He's been so good so far that it's easy to see him rocketing up tp AA in 2024, but it would still be a huge success if he finishes the year in Cedar Rapids.

Keaschall and Schobel have the same problem in front of them to get up to MLB by 2025/26: lot of guys in front of them. Hard not to see Julien, Lee, and Lewis owning 2B/3B for a while and I could see either of them being used as trade bait at some point. So while I think the timeline might be realistic, I also think there's a real chance it'll be with someone else for one of them.

Lot to feel good about in the top 10 prospect list: you have high-end talent, guys that have emerged through development, and relatively few with low ceilings. It's going to be exciting if the really young guys advance fairly quickly; always better to be adding guys to the 40-man when they're in AA/AAA rather than having to sort out whether they need to be protected while still in A-ball.

Soto is the wildest wild card of the bunch: he's got oodles of talent, but he's also a high school pitcher and we literally haven't seen him throw a professional inning yet.

With I believe the norm of hoping for one position player per season for debut and stay on the roster, there is a lot to be excited about on the position side. Of course, some of the top 10 may not make it to the bigs. The pitching side could use a few surprise players. Like Varland. Maybe Canterino and Prielipp get past the injuries and become what we had hoped they would be. If a few pitchers take a big step forward the Twins could be in for a long run of strong teams.

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

These are all expected best case scenarios for these prospects.  I would recommend a range for the prospects below AA.  
 

AA players you can project will be on the MLB team within a season or two.  A ball players have farther to go and it’s harder to project when a player will succeed.  Case in point a few years ago Enlow was a top prospect.  We would have him up by now and we would all be wrong.  But he could still make it up as a reliever.  Or spot starter or swing man.  And it could be next year but when he was a top prospect it was 2018 and 2019with a 2 year expected arrival time when it will take closer to 5 years.  

It's up or out for most prospects. Either they debut on a pretty predictable timeline or they're not going to make it. Injuries can cause delays (Royce Lewis) but otherwise it's make progress or go home.

With the depth the Twins have on the current roster I don't expect to see anyone added unless they force themselves onto the roster or they're forced to add them. That may keep Festa in AAA for most of the year since he doesn't need to be added to the roster until next offseason and they will want to keep his 3 options for 2025-2027. Kalai Rosario, Pierson Ohl and Marco Raya will all wait until 2025 to get added the roster.

That's also a reason why we probably won't see Schobel, Miller, De Andrade or Cory Lewis until 2026, 

And to think the Twins have the 10th or so ranked minor league system.  if this is the case and we are developing half of the leagues future 2B (Julien, Polanco, Keashal, Schobel, Martin, Lee, Lewis....)  and others as well.  There are about to be too many quality major leaguers that may be a way that MLB keeps salary down by shortening a players career or salary due to cost control options.  

Great post, insights and observations.  I think Cody's ETA's are pretty accurate.  I agree with chpettit19 that the Wild card is Jenkins.  To have him up at age 21 would be pretty impressive.  But he could actually get here sooner and if he does, we have a HECK of a prospect.  The comparison with Jackson Holiday was illuminating.

One other player not mentioned was Noah Miller, he of minor league Gold Glove ability at SS.  It's one thing to win a Gold Glove in the minor leagues.  It shows EXCEPTIONAL defensive ability and future potential.  Defense always plays with just "enough" offense.  To win it at SS makes him a cream of the crop piece going forward.  We all know Correa's time at SS is limited.  He won't stick there through the life of his contract.  Miller's Gold Glove should boost his value.  Assuming Julien learns how to play some 1B, and Lee can handle SS, 2B and 3B.  Miller is a potential Gold Glove major league SS.  Where does that leave Lewis?  Lewis is the cornerstone.  He's hitting #3 or #4 in our lineup for the next 10 years.  Kirilloff could always play LF or 1B if Julien ends up being a 1B/DH type (and he probably will).  Where does Royce Lewis play if Emm-Rod or Jenkins is in CF for 3-4 years?  

There are certain players we will see the Twins move on from either this off season, at the trade deadline, or before the start of next season.  Larnach, Kepler, Polanco, Farmer, Vasquez, all fall in this category.  Gray and Maeda are already out the door and ain't coming back.  

The number of BATS we have in this 3-year pipeline is impressive.  However, we're pretty short on pitchers and none of our pitching prospects are at the level of a Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Lee, Jenkins or Emm-Rod.  That leads me to believe that SOME of these elite bats might be/could be, moved in an effort to add quality starting pitching in trades.  Also consider that this equation would be different if we had drafted Skenes instead of Jenkins (but Skenes went before we had the chance).  

This is a great position to be in.  It's always better to have more talent than less.  It gives you more options.  But I wonder what moves the front office will make this winter in FA and trades.  They have a LOT of different directions they could go.  Let's hope they make the right ones.