Blayne Enlow is Out to Prove He Belongs

Enlow has a ways to go before getting an opportunity with the Twins. He has shown enough thus far that 2-5 more good outings could see him promoted to the Saints roster to show himself at AAA. Success for St. Paul points to an improved chance for MLB consideration down the line, likely in 2024. He has looked (milb.com viewings) like an improved pitcher this season.

He's allowing his career's highest home run rate (1.1 HR/9), but it's a limited sample size to this point.  

I'm not saying he hasn't shown improvement, but you can't use the good things as proof he has improved, and the bad is just small sample size.

Can only go by the "eye test"--but what I saw in person last in his start against SF Cardinals was very good!

6 IP---6 hits--1 ER---zero walks on only 76 pitches was very good. 

If he can sustain his recent solid outings over the next 6 weeks, I can project a deserved promotion to SP.

He has the ability to be a viable part of Twins rotation/bullpen by 2025.

2 hours ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

He's allowing his career's highest home run rate (1.1 HR/9), but it's a limited sample size to this point.  

I'm not saying he hasn't shown improvement, but you can't use the good things as proof he has improved, and the bad is just small sample size.

I'm not sure people are really saying he's improved at this point, more that he's healthy and showing his talent again. The HR/9 is a little high, but it doesn't take much to bump that number (the difference between where he is right now and his career average is literally like 2 HRs) so it's not particularly concerning for now. If he stays above 1 HR/9 all year? That will be less great. 

Honestly, the most important stat for Enlow is right now he's averaging 5+ innings per start. More healthy innings for this kid, please.

It appears his control has really improved. Our RP's walk to many batters and some of those batters are hitting under .200. There is just no reason to walk a weak hitter. In a recent game we walked 4 batters and 3 of them scored.  If I was that bad at my job I would not have a job for long.  Rocco would say the pitcher was having an off night, but how many off nights do you get before being replaced?

So Enlow may be a front office pitching development.  That will improve their record in this department considerably.  Ober, Varland, Enlow and Balazovich…..

Great news ...

Enlow only had one way to go and that Is up , yes he had disastrous results last year but everyone  should have known  coming back from  TJ surgery  it would take time  ...

The time is now to go up and maybe next year get a taste of the bigs and be a starter in 2025 ...

Keep believing in yourself kid , it does wonders ...

5 hours ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

He's allowing his career's highest home run rate (1.1 HR/9), but it's a limited sample size to this point.  

I'm not saying he hasn't shown improvement, but you can't use the good things as proof he has improved, and the bad is just small sample size.

True. However the sample size where strike out rate and walk rate start to stabilize is much lower than HR/9.

The minor leagues would likely be different but at the major league level strike out rate begins in stabilize at 70 batters faced and home run rate stabilizes at 1320 batters faced.

This article from Fangraphs is from 2010 and you can probably find more up to date studies. I would think that the magnitude of difference between strike out rate and home run rate is pretty similar today and would be similar in the minor leagues.

15 hours ago, Brandon said:

So Enlow may be a front office pitching development.  That will improve their record in this department considerably.  Ober, Varland, Enlow and Balazovich…..

 

I agree. When mentioning the pitching pipeline, it is also important to remember how many of Cleveland's good starters were aquired via trade. Joe Ryan is a great example of the front office's pipeline producing results. He debuted with the Twins and has improved under their watch. 

He has shown there is a good chance he will end up on 40 man during this year, depending on other injuries.  He will get up to AAA and will be knocking on door of spot start or pen roll at MLB level.  Good for him, people were always big on him and sometimes it takes time. 

18 hours ago, darwin22 said:

Can only go by the "eye test"--but what I saw in person last in his start against SF Cardinals was very good!

6 IP---6 hits--1 ER---zero walks on only 76 pitches was very good. 

If he can sustain his recent solid outings over the next 6 weeks, I can project a deserved promotion to SP.

He has the ability to be a viable part of Twins rotation/bullpen by 2025.

The "eyes" have it. Thank you.

Varland started 2022 as a 24-year-old in Wichita, made 20 starts with a 3.34 ERA, was called up to St. Paul and even ended up making five late-seasons starts for the Twins as a result of injuries. 

Enlow started 2023 as a 24-year-old in Wichita and has made eight starts with a 3.02 ERA. That's overly simplistic, but without obvious folks standing in his way, if injuries build up at the MLB level, it's not hard to imagine him even sniffing the majors yet this year.

I'm not saying that's the ideal -- just noting that we can probably assume that a number of additional starters will be needed at some point, and he's likely approaching the availability list, if he's not already on it.  

A little late to comment on Enlow, but my initial thought about him is ; "Are we surprised?" 

Look, HS arms are the most impossible to truly project and HOPE they reach their potential. But he was a TOP college recruit and ML draft prospect who was signed for late 1st round $. He looked pretty good early. Then, like almost all milb players, he missed 2020. Then, he really flashed early in 2021, seemingly hitting his stride and starting to reach his ceiling before TJ. Coming back after surgery, and barely throwing for 2yrs, he was a mixed bag in 2022 of poor/average, then good, then tired and finished in the pen.

So this season was 100% healthy, far removed from TJ, and ready to resume his career/potential. And credit to him, he's done that. But the arm and potential was always there. Which is why I ask if we're really surprised.

Pleasantly surprised by Headrick's sudden surprise, even though he's not a finished product yet, and might still find himself in the pen eventually. Not surprised, but pleased, that a healthy Balazovic is looking very good, and resembling his former top 100 prospect self. Like ANY milb arm, he might assist the pen at some point, but I want him in the AAA rotation every 5th day to continue to build himself and continue to develop himself as a starter. I'm just not sure what to think about SWR, but he's young enough you still have hope for a turnaround. And there is a solid chance that Festa, AND Enlow moving up to St Paul around mid year.

My point being Enlow, and a few others, are looking like potential depth the second half, and in 2024. And a year ago, I'm not sure we would have felt this good about the depth available. I'm not expecting Enlow to make a difference this year. And I sure hope good health will prevent him from being thrust in to a ML spot this year. But he's on track to be a possible option in the near future. And that's exciting.

On 5/26/2023 at 9:47 PM, DocBauer said:

A little late to comment on Enlow, but my initial thought about him is ; "Are we surprised?" 

Look, HS arms are the most impossible to truly project and HOPE they reach their potential. But he was a TOP college recruit and ML draft prospect who was signed for late 1st round $. He looked pretty good early. Then, like almost all milb players, he missed 2020. Then, he really flashed early in 2021, seemingly hitting his stride and starting to reach his ceiling before TJ. Coming back after surgery, and barely throwing for 2yrs, he was a mixed bag in 2022 of poor/average, then good, then tired and finished in the pen.

So this season was 100% healthy, far removed from TJ, and ready to resume his career/potential. And credit to him, he's done that. But the arm and potential was always there. Which is why I ask if we're really surprised.

Pleasantly surprised by Headrick's sudden surprise, even though he's not a finished product yet, and might still find himself in the pen eventually. Not surprised, but pleased, that a healthy Balazovic is looking very good, and resembling his former top 100 prospect self. Like ANY milb arm, he might assist the pen at some point, but I want him in the AAA rotation every 5th day to continue to build himself and continue to develop himself as a starter. I'm just not sure what to think about SWR, but he's young enough you still have hope for a turnaround. And there is a solid chance that Festa, AND Enlow moving up to St Paul around mid year.

My point being Enlow, and a few others, are looking like potential depth the second half, and in 2024. And a year ago, I'm not sure we would have felt this good about the depth available. I'm not expecting Enlow to make a difference this year. And I sure hope good health will prevent him from being thrust in to a ML spot this year. But he's on track to be a possible option in the near future. And that's exciting.

 

Good point about the need to find depth for 2024.  I too was wondering how that would be achieved.  (maybe they extend Gray) The guys with the highest ceilings have had lots of questions.   Let's hope a couple of them emerge over the course of the season among the group of Enlow / Balazovic / Raya / Headrick / Prielipp and Festa.  It would also help if Canterino gets back in the discussion by the middle of next year even if it's a BP role.  

Meanwhile, Simeon Woods-Richardson...

On 5/26/2023 at 1:04 PM, IndianaTwin said:

Varland started 2022 as a 24-year-old in Wichita, made 20 starts with a 3.34 ERA, was called up to St. Paul and even ended up making five late-seasons starts for the Twins as a result of injuries. 

Enlow started 2023 as a 24-year-old in Wichita and has made eight starts with a 3.02 ERA.

Cole Sands pitched 80 innings at Wichita in 2021 with a 2.46 ERA. His and Varland's careers have gone in different directions since then. Varland is a starter and Sands is in the mop up role (good numbers in that role this year but his pitching hasn't been good overall since 2021). Is it all about Varland increasing his velocity and Sands not since Wichita?

I always thought Enlow would be an eventual MLB arm, or at least my hopes were high. Very encouraged by his performance thus far this year. As others have said, I wouldn't be shocked to see him called up to the majors by next year if not this season. If he keep pitching well with confidence I think he'll stick.