Twins 2023 Position Analysis: Right Field

For how long, now, have we been told that the old school way of looking at a player, using the 3 categories that make up the triple crown, are not a true indicator of how the player is doing.  We need to look at the analytical metrics, such as the chart above here.  If they are good, we have a better indication of how a player is doing.  Yet, when all the metrics look good, and the triple crown numbers look lousy, we still say the player is regressing and should we move on.  BA isn't a true indicator of how a player is doing....... until it is.  The analytic metrics are a better way of judging how a player is doing....... until they aren't. Funny how that works.

Tongue in cheek aside, I think Max has a chance without the shift to have a stronger season, and I am rooting for him.  If he doesn't, then it may very well be time to move on, but I like his chances.  

And I have been yelled at for being old school for so long now, I don't mind anymore, so let me have it.  😉

Good article and analysis. Kepler can turn all this around with a .260 or up year. Fans like Max. With good reason. He is solid in the field, is fast, has power and is low key. A dependable player for a fan base that still admires dependability. The guy is simply a very good right fielder and perfect for the Twins. The exception being that he cannot go opposite field and seems to start cooking with his bat when he elevates the ball some. 

Let's face it, the Twins (full lineup) has lacked a good hitting coach for a couple of seasons now and it shows. The Twins don't know what a bunt is, rarely sacrifice, and suffer from a continual musical chairs approach with the hitting order, (Thanks Professor Baldelli!). Max will benefit from the shift rule and let's hope it revives him and our team, because he is very fun to watch in the field. I can still remember when it was fun to watch him hit better. 

Twins Geezer, out!     GO TWINS!

Thanks Nick, I was curious how fast Kepler could get back into his old groove, now with the shift ban. It didn't take long, Kepler has seemed to find it early ST. Wallner has a lot of raw talent, (speed, arm & power) that needs to be refined. Because Wallner is down on the pecking order in RF so I doubt Wallner will see much time in the MLB. Which gives him a lot of time to better his read on the ball and limit his SOs. I like what I saw from Wallner in ST, Wallner could have a good chance to start in RF next year if he works his but off. We have excellent depth in RF.

Rosario has made the most of his opportunity this spring, that's for sure.

Same can be said for Kepler! 

Love your detailed analysis, Nick.

Small detail here, but I clicked on the link for Rodriguez and was taken to a BR profile for a pitcher who was in the Mets minor league system last season.  I am assuming this is not the same guy you intended to reference.

Thanks, Nick.

Have said since the day they announced the 'shift' change that Max will be a different player in 2023.  Looking for him to have a fantastic year, both in the field and at the plate.

The spring training numbers have been coming in regarding the shift and more balls are getting thru for hits.  Maybe a .15 rise on a player's batting average.  "Possibly" Max's increase in batting average will be more than .15........but he will still be terrible compared to the rest of the league.   The fact that the Twins were not able to trade him means that other teams see the same thing.  Now we need to hope he can "turn it around" on his own.

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

We need to look at the analytical metrics, such as the chart above here.  If they are good, we have a better indication of how a player is doing.  Yet, when all the metrics look good, and the triple crown numbers look lousy, we still say the player is regressing and should we move on.  BA isn't a true indicator of how a player is doing....... until it is.  The analytic metrics are a better way of judging how a player is doing....... until they aren't. Funny how that works.

1 hour ago, Jeff D. said:

Fans like Max. With good reason. He is solid in the field, is fast, has power and is low key. A dependable player for a fan base that still admires dependability. The guy is simply a very good right fielder and perfect for the Twins.

13 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Sorry, but Kepler's problems, at least last year, were not related to luck. Maybe the Exit Velocity was good, but his LD% was only 19.9%, his FB% only 34.4% and his GB% 45.7%!!!!!

These are all really good takes, but I think they show why Kepler has been such a polarizing player this off-season.  The statistics available allow for infinite perspectives based on how each person values different skills.  

I went to Anaheim last summer and sat in right field. Some Angels fan had the absolute worst heckling I've ever heard directed at Max.

"Hey, Kepler! Watch out, they might hit the ball to you!"

(Spoiler; the Angels did a couple of times, and Max caught them all.)

the Kepler situation is complex. He's a fine defender in the corners and probably stretched at this point in CF, but the range and arm profile very well in RF for him to add value. But goodness he had a rotten year at the plate in so many ways. 2019 is looking very much like a fluke year, so any expectation that it's going to be repeated somehow (shift or no) should really be thrown in the trash.

I think the baseball Savant numbers are very instructive: the max exit velocity shows that Kepler can absolutely crush a ball, but the Avg exit velocity, Hard-hit %, and Barrel % shows that he just didn't do it often enough. His K rates and BB rates are fine, but when he does actually swing at a pitch and make contact he's been too inconsistent in really driving ball and doing damage.

Now, how much did the busted toe hurt Kepler even after he came back? Maybe being fully healthy plus the shift rules will help him enough to make him viable as a hitter, but I'm still concerned about his inability to make consistent hard contact. It was easy for fans to turn on Sano when he was piling up the Ks, but Kepler has been a less productive player on offense even with 500 additional ABs and Sano's last season being an utter catastrophe (12.3 Offensive bWAR vs 11.8 offensive bWAR) and took less crap for it, even though Kepler's career OPS+ is significantly less than Sano's. It may have been less irritating for some to watch Kepler bounce out to 2B, but it wasn't effective.

Kepler was absolutely overwhelmed last season by fastballs, for the first time in several years. was that injury, or was that age slowing him down? he's going to have to show he can catch up to the heat and handle sliders in the zone, because I'd bet the early book on him is going to be "no slop".

If he can't get it going again, I'm sure Wallner & Larnach would love a shot. Wallner has sort of the opposite problem of Kepler: he hammers what he hits, but might not connect enough. Is he Adam Dunn or a lefty Brent Rooker? Larnach is the better bet to me to follow on. He won't cover as much ground, but he's got a great arm for the corners and will get to more balls than people think. And healthy, Larnach can hit more consistently than either Kepler or wallner, I think.

4 hours ago, Mark G said:

For how long, now, have we been told that the old school way of looking at a player, using the 3 categories that make up the triple crown, are not a true indicator of how the player is doing.  We need to look at the analytical metrics, such as the chart above here.  If they are good, we have a better indication of how a player is doing.  Yet, when all the metrics look good, and the triple crown numbers look lousy, we still say the player is regressing and should we move on.  BA isn't a true indicator of how a player is doing....... until it is.  The analytic metrics are a better way of judging how a player is doing....... until they aren't. Funny how that works.

Tongue in cheek aside, I think Max has a chance without the shift to have a stronger season, and I am rooting for him.  If he doesn't, then it may very well be time to move on, but I like his chances.  

And I have been yelled at for being old school for so long now, I don't mind anymore, so let me have it.  😉

Great post Mark. I will not yell at you for posting this. I will applaud. 

6 hours ago, Jeff D. said:

Good article and analysis. Kepler can turn all this around with a .260 or up year. Fans like Max. With good reason. He is solid in the field, is fast, has power and is low key. A dependable player for a fan base that still admires dependability. The guy is simply a very good right fielder and perfect for the Twins. The exception being that he cannot go opposite field and seems to start cooking with his bat when he elevates the ball some. 

Let's face it, the Twins (full lineup) has lacked a good hitting coach for a couple of seasons now and it shows. The Twins don't know what a bunt is, rarely sacrifice, and suffer from a continual musical chairs approach with the hitting order, (Thanks Professor Baldelli!). Max will benefit from the shift rule and let's hope it revives him and our team, because he is very fun to watch in the field. I cans still remember when it was fun to watch him hit better. 

Twins Geezer, out!     GO TWINS!

I like Max, for several reasons.  He seems to be a decent guy.  He is usually available to play, and I think he has a beautiful swing.  His defense is top-notch in RF, and acceptable (short-term in CF).

None of this makes him a quality bat at a position that is traditionally a big-bat spot.  I  REALLY hope he shows enough that the Twins feel good about extending his contract.

My biggest fears is he signs with the Spiders and he brings that beautiful swing to Target Field several times a year to terrorize his former team...

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

If Max hits .270 with 20+ bombs he's coming back on that option and the Twins don't think twice about it. They also get some really nice trade offers for him.

Guys who hit .270 with 20+ last year: Lindor, Pujols, Alonso, Ohtani, Riley, Pederson, France, Vlad Jr, Realmuto, Swanson, Contreras (Atlanta version), Ramirez (Jose), Ward, Trout, Rodriguez (Julio), Bichette, Correa, Arenado, Devers, Turner (Trea), Machado, Altuve, Lowe (Nathaniel), Alvarez (Yordan), Judge, Goldschmidt, and Freeman.

That's 27 of the most recognizable names in baseball. .270 with 20+ is an all star season.

assuming he continues taking walks like he normally does, anyways. but I agree: they'll happily pick up that option and either plug him in for another season or deal him because that number for a player of his age coming off a season that productive is worth that kind of money (also presuming the defense stays good)

I predict a great season for the Kepster. 

Personally, I view LF and RF as nearly identical positions... despite the tremendous individual breakdown work by Nick...simply because other than Gordon, and Kepler being a RF mainstay, virtually everyone else on the roster and future possibles all figure in to either or both spots. I make that point for this year, as well as 2024 and beyond. But I digress somewhat.

How crazy is it that, offensively speaking, our OF corners could be huge weak spots, OR, highly productive? A return to previous form by Gallo...great as recently as 2021...and a rebound by Kepler, combined with the potential of Larnach, and Wallner, could make both corner spots dangerous. And I'm not even including the solid Gordon and Taylor as nice pieces to fill in with. I do believe Kepler was shopped. And that makes sense with Gallo on board, and the depth available. I believe there was probably real interest, but not enough offered in return vs keeping him, betting on a rebound, and keeping his veteran presence as insurance for a healthy Larnach and still developing Wallner. 

FWIW, I was OK moving on from Kepler and letting Larnach and Wallner get their shot. I still am. You HAVE to trust in your top prospects at some point and let them play, take a few lumps, and let them figure it out. I think Larnach is going to be damn good, if he's 100%. The good news is both of his previous injuries aren't related and don't appear chronic at this point. Wallner has improved in almost every single category over the past couple of years. But his defense could use some polish, and he's only got about half a season at AAA, so a little more seasoning to hone rough edges is not a bad thing. So why not keep Kepler for now instead of moving him for low value?

Larnach is a much better defender than some gave credit for on his way up, and has a gun for an arm. He plays in either corner with hit ability and power and potentially fairly even splits. Wallner moves and runs very well for a large human being and has a cannon for an arm with tremdous power. Despite continued development in virtually every category, I see Wallner as the better power bat, and Larnach as the better hitter. It's not hard to see them both in some configuration as the corner OF tomorrow, with assistance and depth from Gordon, Martin, and Celestino. Lewis MIGHT figure in there as well, but I believe he will settle in on the dirt with Lee in some combination along with Correa. I like Martin, potentially, eventually, as a super utility player at multiple positions. Anyone else is far enough away, for now, that I'm not going to conjecture at this point.

So I basically did reverse order and looked at depth and the future first. How about Kepler NOW?

I understand all the data points that say he's a better hitter than he should be. But at some point, data is just that, and reality on the field is the ultimate proof. He might hit the ball hard, but he doesn't do so often enough to make a difference. Some of the data, and simple eye test, shows way too many weak liners and ground balls. Kepler makes good contact, doesn't strike out a ton, will take some walks, and has power in his very sweet swing. So why has his contact been so generally weak and unproductive the last 2yrs? I understand he tries to hit the other way. And I believe the lack of extreme shifts might help him. But at some point, even as a natural pull hitter, his athleticism and power and sweet swing should have him driving the ball SOMEWHERE other than weak flys and grounders.

And I say all of this as a long term fan of his. SOMETHING has been missing in his approach and results, juiced ball or not. Does he not "know" who he is as a hitter? Is he trying too damn hard to be perfect as a hitter? It's up to Popkins and Hernandez to help him figure that out. I love his defense. But his career BA sits at .232. Career OB is .317. Career OPS is .744 with career highs of .855 in 2019 and .760 in 2020. He's never been above .737 in the rest of his career. Of course, he's also been much better against RHP, not surprising. And maybe he's just best as an outstanding defensive player who should sit against RHP as much as possible and be a lower order batter, as I've stated more than a few times, where he could be dangerous.

And just being really real for a moment, there aren't that many LH hitters who have great success, or good/moderate success against LHP. There is no way to simply platoon every position in baseball. I mean, come on, every player is going to face same side pitching. And it's perfectly fine to bat a LH hitter higher in the order against opposite handedness, and place them lower in the order against the same to begin a game. That's just baseball, and things change as the game progresses and changes are made. But there is a difference between not being very good against a LH pitcher, in Kepler's case, vs not raking or being at least very good against opposite arms.

For what ST stats are worth, it appears Max is off to a good start for 2023. Again, I'm a fan and love his defense. And maybe, even at 30yo, all that talent and potential blooms some and he hits .250  ish with 20+ HR and 30+ HR. That would mean he was actually DRIVING the ball again. And with those numbers, and his defense, he's an easy "bring back" with his 2024 option, even if it meant a trade because the other young talent staked their claim for the future during 2023.