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  • Trevor Larnach is on the Clock


    Cody Pirkl

    Trevor Larnach has an above-average slash line in 2023 but hasn’t been the hitter we expected. As he’s carried by walks and showing very little power, could we see it cost him his roster spot soon?

    Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

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    Trevor Larnach was drafted in the first round of 2018 and was praised for his advanced knowledge of the strike zone and impressive power. As he approaches a full season’s worth of plate appearances at the big-league level, he’s been a perplexing hitter, and with so many other options, the Twins could be on the verge of giving someone else an opportunity.

    Larnach’s big league-level timeline is clouded by two injuries that weighed down his production and ultimately cost him his seasons in 2021 and 2022. Still, he’s accumulated a near-league-average slash line according to his 98 wRC+ across nearly 600 plate appearances. The main takeaways we can draw from Larnach so far in his big league career is that he’s prone to strikeouts but also excels at walking and getting on base. Add in his body type and he has all of the makings of a power-hitting corner outfielder… except the power, that is.

    Larnach has just a .373 slugging percentage through this point in his career. He’s on about a 15-home run pace as a whole. His .145 Isolated slugging is equivalent to Cedric Mullins in 2022. The slash line may technically be above league average for 2023, but at this point, it’s coming almost exclusively from walks.

    Larnach’s approach at the plate is intended to make pitchers work and force them into throwing pitches he can drive. He’s done a great job of getting himself into those situations, but executing when he gets there is a problem. He lacks the ability to cause chaos on the base paths when walked, and the bat-to-ball skills and strikeout rate are too poor to not capitalize on damage-worthy pitches when he sees them. He’s a very smart and polished hitter in regard to his approach, but not finishing the job when he gets pitches to hit is arguably outweighing his on-base ability

    Alex Kirilloff lurks in Triple-A St. Paul. Larnach was discussed as a potential send-down as his rehab stint neared a close, but the Twins ultimately decided to keep Kirilloff in the minors to continue working back from his wrist surgery. At the time many argued that Larnach didn’t have much to prove at the minor league level given his ability to hold his own in the MLB. This can still be argued. If the former 1st round pick with a 65 raw power grade continues to show such little thump, the Twins are likely to explore other options. It may be a need for a swing change or a mental reset to start trying to drive the ball again. Either way, it’s possible that the Twins soon decide Trevor Larnach’s power-hitter approach without the power doesn’t belong in the Major Leagues.

    The Twins have too many left-handed corner options to give a shot to. The aforementioned Kirilloff will likely continue to kick down the door to the MLB. Matt Wallner continues to torch Triple-A, and while his swing-and-miss profile is a more extreme version of Larnach’s, there’s almost no chance of him providing such little power at the plate if he can come up and adjust to Major League pitching.

    Time may be ticking for Trevor Larnach to find his power stroke. His plate approach is polished and he leads the team in RBI, but if he continues to fail in the slugging department, the Twins will begin to wonder whether their wealth of other options can provide more. At some point soon, they may decide to put that theory to the test.

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    "The Twins have too many left-handed corner options ..."

    This has been a mantra since the end of last season .... and then the Twins added Joey Gallo.

    Trading time is quite ways off, so the team will need to embrace what they have and let them play. The player who doesn't look up to the task, in my estimation, is Solano. In a week the Twins will need to take a hard look at their current roster. I am unable to predict tomorrow or further into the future, due to personal limitations, but Farmer and Kirilloff should both be on the airplane to Los Angeles. This will be the Twins version of bringing in a couple of keys.

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    Not a good day for an article discussing Larnach's status after what was it, four K's last night?  All I remember is the seventh with the bases loaded and our 2-3-4 hitters coming up.

    I continue to believe that AK will be a special hitter.  Saw he had two hits again last night.  Sure looks to me that should Larnach continue hitting like of late for another week or so, AK is up and Larnach is in St. Paul.  That also solves the problem of how they create an opening for AK without losing Gordon, who has been hitting like last year the last couple games.  The Twins sure as heck need some clutch hitting, will AK be part of the answer?

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    I bet Larnach gets optioned down when AK ready to come up.  Really they are interchangeable pieces. Since Larnach still has option year left he will get sent down if he does not get on hot streak soon.  He has always been a streaky hitter, but we need at least him or AK to reach what he hoped.  

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    53 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

    "The Twins have too many left-handed corner options ..."

    This has been a mantra since the end of last season .... and then the Twins added Joey Gallo.

    Trading time is quite ways off, so the team will need to embrace what they have and let them play. The player who doesn't look up to the task, in my estimation, is Solano. In a week the Twins will need to take a hard look at their current roster. I am unable to predict tomorrow or further into the future, due to personal limitations, but Farmer and Kirilloff should both be on the airplane to Los Angeles. This will be the Twins version of bringing in a couple of keys.

    "Bringing in a couple of keys!"  I love it!!  "Don't touch my bags if you please, Mr. Custom's Man!"

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    1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

    "The Twins have too many left-handed corner options ..."

    This has been a mantra since the end of last season .... and then the Twins added Joey Gallo.

    Trading time is quite ways off, so the team will need to embrace what they have and let them play. The player who doesn't look up to the task, in my estimation, is Solano. In a week the Twins will need to take a hard look at their current roster. I am unable to predict tomorrow or further into the future, due to personal limitations, but Farmer and Kirilloff should both be on the airplane to Los Angeles. This will be the Twins version of bringing in a couple of keys.

    I think Farmer is actually shooting for next week's home series, though that probably has more of an impact on Castro than Larnach. 

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    End of March, Larnach was the last add to the 26 man & he had Kiriloff’s spot. Really nice couple weeks to start season.

    Haven't thought much at all about Gordon getting DFA’d. He’s coming around & in some big spots - plays 4 positions - w/o options left, he’s going to stick.

    It comes down to displacing Solano’s AB’s with Farmer (Farmer for Castro) when he comes back - Miranda plays 1B when appropriate & Farmer plays 3B. OR they dump Larnach back to AAA to figure out how to get better at 25-26 years old. Needs lots of work v. off speed!

    Solano has generally delivered with bat, mediocre on defense - Larnach is on 100 RBI pace……with Kiriloff back, Gallo goes to LF & we have the same line-up mix of LH hitters.

    Solano only cost around $2.5M ……can afford to release him. Theoretically, we may be able to mix him with prospect for trade in July. Another, less likely move, is send Larnach down until we can trade Kepler in 3 mos. & use that opening to bring Larnach back or audition Walner again.

    What’s the move?

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    The potential is definitely there for Larnach, unfortunately for him and the Twins, I don't think we are well bit to sit around wait for potential this year. The power is off the charts, but that doesn't matter when you're not barreling up balls. I think mentioning his approach is an interesting discussion. He walk a lot, obviously nice to see, but I think he's gotta rethink his game plan. He's clearly struggling on all off-speed, I've watched most of his ABs and aside from the changeup HR, not sure he's hit another off speed pitch hard. Makes me think he's sitting red dead on the fastball, I don't think it's working anymore, he's not adjusting to the off-speed.

     

    I personally don't think we can afford to have a guy struggling for long, taking up a middle of the order spot on this team. The calls for Kirilloff will get loud, another 2-hit game last night, tonight is an important game for Larnach I imagine.

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    54 minutes ago, roger said:

    Not a good day for an article discussing Larnach's status after what was it, four K's last night?  All I remember is the seventh with the bases loaded and our 2-3-4 hitters coming up.

    I continue to believe that AK will be a special hitter.  Saw he had two hits again last night.  Sure looks to me that should Larnach continue hitting like of late for another week or so, AK is up and Larnach is in St. Paul.  That also solves the problem of how they create an opening for AK without losing Gordon, who has been hitting like last year the last coupld games.  The Twins sure as heck need some clutch hitting, will AK be part of the answer?

    Why is it a bad time for an article discussing how Larnach could be running out of time the night after he strikes out four times? He could get optioned for Matt Wallner before the Cleveland series and I wouldn't be shocked.

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    16 minutes ago, ZachB said:

    The potential is definitely there for Larnach, unfortunately for him and the Twins, I don't think we are well bit to sit around wait for potential this year. The power is off the charts, but that doesn't matter when you're not barreling up balls. I think mentioning his approach is an interesting discussion. He walk a lot, obviously nice to see, but I think he's gotta rethink his game plan. He's clearly struggling on all off-speed, I've watched most of his ABs and aside from the changeup HR, not sure he's hit another off speed pitch hard. Makes me think he's sitting red dead on the fastball, I don't think it's working anymore, he's not adjusting to the off-speed.

     

    I personally don't think we can afford to have a guy struggling for long, taking up a middle of the order spot on this team. The calls for Kirilloff will get loud, another 2-hit game last night, tonight is an important game for Larnach I imagine.

    The assumed power is off the charts, he hasn't really shown it at the big league level aside from an impressive homer here or there. At this point his expected numbers are actually better against changeups than fastballs. He's gotten quite a few fastballs the last few weeks and just fouls them off.

    Two things I wonder about with him is whether he's 1. Pulling back on the power to keep the K% around 30 rather than disastrous levels, and 2. Whether he's actually just going up looking to fight off everything in the zone to draw a walk. He never looks ready for any pitch of any type lately. He's gotten quite a few mistakes lately and often can't do much aside from foul them off.

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    He looks like he's trying to sit on off-speed now, and it's causing him to miss the fastballs he used to crush. That's a really bad combination when he's still struggling to hit off-speed. He's trying to make an adjustment, and that's what we should be expecting, but the Twins have finally gathered some depth so they likely won't be as patient with adjustments as they would've in the future. Nice for the team overall, but tough for individual players. Gordon seems to be figuring out his adjustment to take himself off the hot seat, and now it's Larnach who needs to get his straightened out, or he'll be making that adjustment in AAA. The bigger problem is that AAA pitchers may not be good enough for him to truly make the adjustment, and when he comes back he'll likely still have a major league adjustment to make and he'll still likely not have a lot of time to make it.

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    20 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

    Why is it a bad time for an article discussing how Larnach could be running out of time the night after he strikes out four times? He could get optioned for Matt Wallner before the Cleveland series and I wouldn't be shocked.

    That comment was 'tongue in cheek,' Cody.

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    I haven't been able to watch any Twins games this year, so I don't know what he looks like, but my general though it no, we keep him in the lineup everyday. He's not as young as I'd like but he's supposed to be a cornerstone. Give him a lot more time. 1000 ML at-bats before we write him off. He has nothing left to prove in the minors. 

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    9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

    He looks like he's trying to sit on off-speed now, and it's causing him to miss the fastballs he used to crush. That's a really bad combination when he's still struggling to hit off-speed. He's trying to make an adjustment, and that's what we should be expecting, but the Twins have finally gathered some depth so how likely won't be as patient with adjustments as they would've in the future. Nice for the team overall, but tough for individual players. Gordon seems to be figuring out his adjustment to take himself off the hot seat, and now it's Larnach who needs to get his straightened out, or he'll be making that adjustment in AAA. The bigger problem is that AAA pitchers may not be good enough for him to truly make the adjustment, and when he comes back he'll likely still have a major league adjustment to make and he'll still likely not have a lot of time to make it.

    May have nailed the problem, chpettit19.

    Gotta believe that they will flip Larnach and AK.  Question is, how soon?

    Also becoming concerned with Miranda's bat.  Had a couple nice games, what was it a week ago?  But otherwise nothing like last year.  

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    Hard to argue with this premise. Larnach does have potential, but he has to start showing it. Kirilloff I think is ready in the next week or so, and Gallo has been hitting.

    Longer term, I admit, I don't know that I trust Wallner to be THAT GUY either. I wouldn't hate looking at the trade market for a good hitting corner outfielder at some point this season too.

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    23 minutes ago, roger said:

    May have nailed the problem, chpettit19.

    Gotta believe that they will flip Larnach and AK.  Question is, how soon?

    Also becoming concerned with Miranda's bat.  Had a couple nice games, what was it a week ago?  But otherwise nothing like last year.  

    Miranda is becoming pretty worrisome for me. I didn't watch him at all before his big breakout, but the story was always that he was a free swinger, and it crippled his numbers. He fixed that and took off. But he sure looks to be back to his old ways. It's not even a secret anymore that once he gets 2 strikes on him they're throwing a fastball about 3 feet above the zone. He's going to have to stop swinging at it or Lewis/Lee is coming for his job much sooner than anyone was expecting.

    To tie this back to the topic of Larnach, they're both going to start feeling the pressure pretty quick as Kirilloff and Lewis return. Miranda has a little more cushion, but he'll run the risk of losing ABs vs lefties to Farmer soon. But it is really nice to have depth so they can make decisions based on performance more than just "well he's all we've got." I believe in both of them, but Larnach especially is running out of time.

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    Last night was a eye opener for this team as a whole. Bases loaded with no out and 50 million in payroll coming up to bat. They hit two infield ground balls on the first pitch they see. Larnach is not the problem. Up and down this lineup is a joke,they all want to wear a dumb vest. All we needed was a fly ball to score a run. You win by scoring one more run than the other team,not hitting one more homerun. Maybe it is time for a change at hitting coach and maybe time to send a Miranda to St. Paul. This might be the shake up the team needs. The way things look they might be under 500 before returning home.

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    The article reads as a provocative "time to give up on Larnach" piece, perhaps to generate discussion but maybe he really believes it?  500 AB that has been broken up due to injury is not enough to declare failure.  However, this is a team with a realistic goal of winning the division, winning a playoff game and hopefully with that monkey of the back, who knows...and Larnach has an option.  So, it's definitely reasonable to send him down to work on a pitch selection and punishing pitches in the power zone while providing the MLB at-bats to someone else for awhile. 

    The ultra-talented Soto is also taking too many pitches which puts him into poor hitting counts.  It's hard to find that balance.  I'm hoping that Larnach is smart enough to be able to figure out how a pitcher is trying to pitch him and then be ready and able to hit a pitch on the edge of the zone.

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    Where has it been shown or seen that Kiriloffs is much of any better than Larnach?  Inthe limited time he has been with the Twins he hasn't shown much at the major league level.  AK several times has shown great AAA numbers only to prove he can't be a consistent major league hitter.  Wallner?  You really think he's ready or the answer?  If some of those players are returned to the major league roster soon why are people worried about who may lose their roster spot?  If the FO can't find anyone on this roster to send to minors or release they have got to go.  This 26 man roster has plenty of candidates for release/ demotion.

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    42 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

    I haven't been able to watch any Twins games this year, so I don't know what he looks like, but my general though it no, we keep him in the lineup everyday. He's not as young as I'd like but he's supposed to be a cornerstone. Give him a lot more time. 1000 ML at-bats before we write him off. He has nothing left to prove in the minors. 

    I don't mean to come across as writing him off, I was a huge believer coming into the year and still think his plate approach makes him a potentially solid regular left fielder. I do think he needs to find a viable identity as a hitter and I'm not sure the Twins will let him do so in the major. If he wants to work counts and try to force the pitcher to make mistakes, it's going to result in some strikeouts, which is fine. There needs to be a payoff when those mistakes are made though and he's struggled to do that through his first 600 plate appearances in the majors.

    As I mentioned in the article, he has a power hitter's plate approach without the power so far in his career. Pairing his plate approach with a slugging % in the .300s leaves him contributing little on offense aside from walks. He isn't a threat on the bases so that's just not very helpful. If he keeps failing to drive the ball the league also likely reaches a point where they stop walking him because they'll just decide he's not capable of making them pay for throwing strikes.

    The Twins have enough options that it's very possible that they decide to give someone else a shot very soon. 

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    Larnach has been up and down at the plate but then add in his limited outfield range and his lack of knowledge on how to play an outfield wall and it could be time to make a change!

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    I like that both Larnach and Miranda take full healthy swings most of the time. They don't look bad in their swings. But how about some solid contact. It's gotta come soon. 

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    12 minutes ago, David Maro said:

    Last night was a eye opener for this team as a whole. Bases loaded with no out and 50 million in payroll coming up to bat. They hit two infield ground balls on the first pitch they see. Larnach is not the problem. Up and down this lineup is a joke,they all want to wear a dumb vest. All we needed was a fly ball to score a run. You win by scoring one more run than the other team,not hitting one more homerun. Maybe it is time for a change at hitting coach and maybe time to send a Miranda to St. Paul. This might be the shake up the team needs. The way things look they might be under 500 before returning home.

    I miss Paul Molitor.

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    Great timing for this Cody because Kirilloff will be coming up soon and Farmer will just make the roster crunch a little tighter.  When you factor in Gallo, Kepler and Wallner for the immediate future, and Rodriguez for the year or two future as well as the strong possibility that the Twins could take an toolsy outfielder with their 5th pick in the June draft, Larnach is indeed on the hot seat a bit. 

    Kepler is in his last year with the team.  Gallo is signed for only one year.  So beyond this season, there is still a place for Larnach.  But he's supposed to be a middle of the order power bat and it just hasn't come to the fore yet.  He leads the team in RBI's but that's more a function of the abundant opportunities he's had. 

    Last night's 7th inning with bases loaded and nobody out was beyond frustrating seeing big guns like Correa and Buxton both swinging at the first pitch and both making weak contact with grounders back to the pitcher.  Larnach battled back well from falling behind 0-2 to bring the count full, but in the end finished with a strikeout and earning the "Golden Sombrero" (4 strikouts in a game, from Hrbek and Gaetti days) for his effort.  

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    9 minutes ago, rationalfan said:

    The article reads as a provocative "time to give up on Larnach" piece, perhaps to generate discussion but maybe he really believes it?  500 AB that has been broken up due to injury is not enough to declare failure.  However, this is a team with a realistic goal of winning the division, winning a playoff game and hopefully with that monkey of the back, who knows...and Larnach has an option.  So, it's definitely reasonable to send him down to work on a pitch selection and punishing pitches in the power zone while providing the MLB at-bats to someone else for awhile. 

    The ultra-talented Soto is also taking too many pitches which puts him into poor hitting counts.  It's hard to find that balance.  I'm hoping that Larnach is smart enough to be able to figure out how a pitcher is trying to pitch him and then be ready and able to hit a pitch on the edge of the zone.

    I've been a Larnach believer the entire season, and while I think he is nearing a point where they have to send him down, I don't look at that as giving up on him. They have other options to try, and if he continues with what he's been doing I think it's a pretty straightforward assumption that Larnach gets optioned for Kirilloff when his 10 days are up.

    Unlike a lot of people, I have no issue with Larnach's approach, including the strikeouts that come with it. There just has to be a payoff. He can't pace out as a 12-15 HR hitter at the MLB level if he wants to be a regular, which is what he's done so far in his career. He's had the two injuries, yes, but he's healthy now and so far in 2023 he has yet to show any kind of meaningful power. The bottom line is guys with 30+% K rates and SLG%s in the .300s usually don't stick around very long. The walks are likely to dry up as pitchers realize they can just throw strikes and he won't punish them for it. If a trip to Triple-A could potentially get him driving the ball again, I don't think it'd be the worst thing.

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    2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

    I think Farmer is actually shooting for next week's home series, though that probably has more of an impact on Castro than Larnach. 

    I fully agree that Castro is the first to go when Farmer or AK are brought up.  My eyes tell me Larnach is a good hitter, but it's hard to argue with the stats.  Unless someone goes on the DL, I suspect it's Larnach or Solano who get moved out after Castro.  Gordon's ability to play so many positions should keep him on the roster.

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    1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

    Hard to argue with this premise. Larnach does have potential, but he has to start showing it. Kirilloff I think is ready in the next week or so, and Gallo has been hitting.

    Longer term, I admit, I don't know that I trust Wallner to be THAT GUY either. I wouldn't hate looking at the trade market for a good hitting corner outfielder at some point this season too.

    I'm definitely in agreement on Larnach>Wallner. I think the likeliest scenario is that when Kirilloff's 10 days are up and Larnach is still doing what he's been doing, the decision simply becomes too easy. I'd hope if he gets sent down he could start driving the ball again, seems like he's just fighting everything off to keep his head above water right now. 

    I think trading for a bat is definitely in the cards closer to the deadline. Too many inconsistent hitters across the lineup and bats usually don't cost too much. 

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    Larnach’s OPS is 55 points higher than Correa’s. Neither of those items bother me.

    It’s early. We’re not winning or losing the division today or tomorrow. I’m here to relax and enjoy our pitching staff. The hitting will be around soon enough.

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    11 minutes ago, Brett said:

    Larnach’s OPS is 55 points higher than Correa’s. Neither of those items bother me.

    It’s early. We’re not winning or losing the division today or tomorrow. I’m here to relax and enjoy our pitching staff. The hitting will be around soon enough.

    The point those two are at in their careers are very different though and Larnach's lack of power spans his entire career to this point and there are options to replace him. I just fear the Twins don't give him much more leash.

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    2 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

    I've been a Larnach believer the entire season, and while I think he is nearing a point where they have to send him down, I don't look at that as giving up on him.

     

    I think sending down a 26 year old healthy hitter might not be giving up on him but it is a sign of the beginning of the end, you can't have a guy like that clogging up the 40 man forever, IMO.

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    This is a nonsensical article. Larnach is cheap (four years of team control), plays solid defense, and already has a better bat than Kepler. He’s taking solid at bats compared to the rest of the roster. I’d rather keep him long term and would end the Kepler charade once and for all.

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