Analyzing the Twins Extension for Manager Rocco Baldelli

I have no problem with  Rocco.  Managers in baseball get too much credit when things go well, and too much heat when things go poorly.

The manager doesn't get to pick his roster, the manager doesn't decide who to call up or send down (hopefully does have influence), the manager is not a doctor and can't decide who is too injured to play.

He simply puts the best possible roster together of the players he is given.  When given a poor BP, he can only send out poor quality pitchers he is given.

He's not the one who keeps striking out, or the one who decides Buxton should only be a DH.

I know a lot of Twins fans will disagree with me, but he is part of the process of using advanced analytics that this Front Office has chosen to use to try and win a championship.  Since that is the philosophy they are going to go with (which I support), then better to have a manager who also believes in it instead of an old school, rub some dirt on it type of coach like they could bring in.

Baseball (2023) managers have less autonomy than in the past. Falvey and Levine (perhaps others) have a significant voice in the game. I'm not sure that is a positive thing. Baldelli was hired because of his prior experience in working with a group of people combined with his low key approach. Managers made in game decisions, player usage patterns, and various other calls based on their knowledge, experience, discussions with other coaches, and feel for what was actually in front of them before the advent of front office involvement. In a sense there is only so much Baldelli can do. He is Falvey's guy. The Twins would never have someone like Francona or Baker. Both of these managers (a few others) listen and converse with a wide assortment of people, including their front offices, but the decisions made on players and in games is their call. If the Twins wanted the best mind possible as a field manager, Paul Molitor would still be in charge. 

Thus, the extension of Baldelli is easily understandable, actually expected, with Falvey at the helm of the team. Baldelli is fine. What has been a bit of a surprise is how the Pohlads have increased their unprecedented (for the Twins) financial spending under Falvey.

I think it's a terrible decision.  Rocco is not a leader.  He doesn't motivate.  He doesn't command.  I think the whole front office ought to hang it up with Rocco in tow.  And let the owners eat the contract.  (I don't mean to mince words.)

I was and continue to be open minded about the value of analytics as a tool in the Manager's toolbox.  But for Baldelli my impression is that it's the only tool in his toolbox. He seems not to understand or maybe just not consider some intangibles in his decision making.  Things like chemistry and psychology and motivation. So I was thinking that if the Twins find themselves 10 games under by July 4, which is possible, then hopefully they would fire Baldelli. Now I don't think that will happen regardless of how poorly they play.  We will get tons of excuses, none of which will be Baldelli's fault.

Perhaps in another thread we could discuss the Manager's job description, specifically detailing what he is responsible for ( and what he is not). Then how do you evaluate whether he is meeting the minimum requirements? And how do you distinguish between a good manager and a great manager? (And I hope not to hear a lot of "if the team wins he is a good manager and if they lose he is a poor manager, and if they win a lot he's great .." )  Like I say - another thread - trying to evaluate objectively rather than subjectively. I may have to change my mind about him.

I hate it. Worse than not trading Emilio Pagan 

Looks like the development of the Twins stellar young position player talent - Miranda, Larnach, Kiriloff, Lewis, Lee, Julien, Wallner, Martin, Gordon, Rodriguez, Miller, etc. - will remain under the responsibility of Rocco for at least 2.5 more years.

As I do not think Rocco’s track record in developing young position player talent is very strong, and I believe that this particular skill base is at the top of list for what this franchise needs from a manager over the next several years, put me in the camp of being disappointed with the extension.

I’d be less disappointed if Rocco’s skills in other areas - i.e. roster management, bullpen usage, emphasising fundamentals, creative run production, challenge success rate, etc. - were better, maybe even above average. However, he doesn’t really excel in any of these either. It appears he really only excels in Excel.

I was really hoping the Nephew would actually provide Rocco with a legitimate performance review against stated criteria and hold him accountable for his results (or lack thereof).  That’s what well run organizations do.  The early extension seems to indicate that this is not the case.

Rocco's following the script developed and demanded by the FO exactly.  Why would they not extend him based on that methodology.  I personally like Rocco and think given a little slack he would make appropriate "gut decisions" if the FO would deviate off of the "spreadsheet process" even a little bit.  Unfortunately, that has not and will not occur with this FO IMHO.  The jury is still out whether 100% analytics will eventually get us to the promised land, but so far it has not.  My take is that if the FO is dedicated to this process, then they do have the right guy in place to manage.

I'm not a Rocco fan due mainly to his inflexibility.  He appears very poor at in game management.  I think a manager sets the tone for the whole team.  And Roccos team is boring, listless, and undisciplined.  If managers aren't important anymore, perhaps we don't need one.  Have Falvey manage lol.  He knows everything and doesn't like being criticized at all.  Or just let the players run the show.  I think managers are important and are a direct reflection of their team.  With the current FO and Baldelli we can expect more of the same for the next few years, yawn, yawn!!

I think the FO has a little more input into on field decisions than would be normal on many teams. If that’s the case Rocco has my sympathies. If I am going to be the one getting the heat for lineup decisions then I want to make them myself. But I suspect in reality, he is just a good "team player"? Analytics have a place, but it’s possible the organization has gone in a little overboard. It’s 2023, not 2019. The baseballs don’t soar like they did 4 years ago, it’s time to cut down on some of the wild 2 strike swings? Lastly, if Rocco is doing such a good job, and who knows he may be, then why the secrecy of the extension? No press conference, no free cookies and coffee?  And obviously no shouting from the roof tops in an attempt to boost ticket sales?

MLB.com lists 14 coaches and 7 staff -  how do you analyze the contribution these 21 men make?  An assistant to the assistant is there to take the blame and get fired.  I just think this is an amazing number.

What is a quality control coach? 

And please explain a bench coach.  Is this just so the manager does not feel lonely?  Are there really that many decisions to be made and how often is the BC consulted?

In looking at Rocco's 2022 record shows he is not a good manager.  Rocco had a losing record in 1 run games and losing record in extra inning games. Manager's choices in close games show the difference between good managers and poor managers.  Good managers win close games and poor managers lose close games. If the front office is 100% behind Rocco then they should be replaced, but do not think that will happen. It appears they are happy with a .500 record give or take a few games so fans have to accept a .500 team.  The Twins are not a big market team so guess fans will have to learn to cheer for a .500 team.

Rocco was hired for one reason. He is a YES MAN. Meaning when Levine and Falvey say jump he says "How High"?

Many things are out of his control but some are not. Pagan should have been sent to St Paul. Instead Rocco let him work on fixing himself in live big league games. That hurt the team and was a slap in the face to the other players. Now same with Griffin Jax. He can't throw strikes. Even his outs are hard hit. Should be in St. Paul. Not working out his issues in the 7th or 8th innings. And what is the Pitching Coach doing? Has not fixed any relievers!! And there sits Rocco, staring into that Binder he has on the bench telling him what to do!! Watch the game Rocco! It tells you what you should be doing.!!

40 minutes ago, MGM4706 said:

Rocco was hired for one reason. He is a YES MAN. Meaning when Levine and Falvey say jump he says "How High"?

Many things are out of his control but some are not. Pagan should have been sent to St Paul. Instead Rocco let him work on fixing himself in live big league games. That hurt the team and was a slap in the face to the other players. Now same with Griffin Jax. He can't throw strikes. Even his outs are hard hit. Should be in St. Paul. Not working out his issues in the 7th or 8th innings. And what is the Pitching Coach doing? Has not fixed any relievers!! And there sits Rocco, staring into that Binder he has on the bench telling him what to do!! Watch the game Rocco! It tells you what you should be doing.!!

You're giving examples of things Rocco is not in charge of.  Pagan cannot be sent to St. Paul as he has too many years of service to be sent down to  AAA without passing thru waivers.  This is a F.O. decision, not a manager one.  Same with Jax - its not Rocco's call, that goes to the F.O. of who stays in the bigs, and who gets sent down.  Same with injuries - Rocco never went to school past high school - you think they let him make medical decisions?

You can be upset with the F.O. for giving Rocco God awful players like Pagan (I agree he should never have been resigned, also not a Rocco role), but Rocco plays who F.O. gives him.

The Twins deserve some heat from fans - but it needs to be placed on the people making the poor decisions, not blaming Rocco for choices that are not his to make.  Is he perfect - of course not, but know what he controls, and what he is not allowed to when assigning blame.

One last note - given the pitchers Rocco has been given to select from in our pen (again, by the F.O.)- who would you send out instead? There are NO good options because the F.O. admits, the pen is not something they feel needs to be invested in.

Rocco is not the problem nor the solution. I was a CEO for 30 years and always told my Board of Directors that when I hire the right people I’m a management genius. When I don’t I’m not nearly as smart. This is about the FO folks. That is where the focus and attention should be directed. 

Rocco does what his bosses want and still doesnt seem to know how long to leave pitchers in a game. He probably needs to be tougher than he is now, but it's hard when the players make more salary than him and they have more power and more say than him. They all better wake up or they will end up not winning this lame division. 

19 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

But in 2021 they went 25-19 in 1 run games while going 73-89 overall. Was he a great manager that year to raise their level of play in 1 run games so drastically?

(For the record I'm not a Rocco fan, I'm not defending him, just attempting to point out the randomness that goes into most stats people think are driven by managers. I don't care 1 way or the other on who the manager is.)

Rocco had hitters in 2021 that helped him win close games, but not in 2022.  Good managers win close games.

Molitor played in over 2000 MLB games, Rocco, didn't even get 2000 at bats in MLB. Twins commitment to Molitor pales in comparison to Rocco....the sooner Falvey and Levine are cut loose the better this organization will be.