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    Mike Sixel

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Showing content with the highest reputation since 07/25/2021 in Posts

  1. I've been hard on this front office lately but they literally traded JA Happ for a live human being that plays baseball.
    27 points
  2. I think this is 100% unfair in this deal. Berrios was clear he was going to FA next year. They got a top 20 prospect, and a top 50-60 prospect, both in AA. I get being cynical, but this is not a good take, imo.
    23 points
  3. I think this deadline is playing out the way it probably should for the Twins. Patience is key here. The Cruz trade was the right move because the offer was good enough to move early. It looks like the rest of the offers have not been good enough. My view: 1. Don't trade Buxton, sign him. From what I read, the $80m guarantee is over 7 years is acceptable to both, the issue is the size of the escalators. There is a deal there, make it. The only way a midmarket team can keep someone this talented is to get lucky and take risk. That's what we need to do here. 2. Only trade Berrios now if you get a huge package. From the Dodgers, it must include either a Dustin May or Gavin Lux type player, +1 of their top starting pitching prospects like Gray or Peipot, plus an A+ or AA pitcher or shortstop with upside. Do not trade him unless you can get that. If all we're being offered is a lesser package, we can get that over the winter and it gives us a chance to re-sign him. Consider trading Donaldson to create the payroll space to give the money to Berrios. We need him more. 3. With two possible exceptions, trade all of the expiring contracts for effectively whatever you can get. It ain't going to be much given the performance of these guys but restocking the lower levels with guys that don't have to be on the 40 man roster right away has value. The point here is not the return. The point here is opening up opportunities now, not next year NOW, for the next wave of guys who might help us in 2022 through 2025. If you have to DFA guys like Happ to move him off the roster, do it. Colome is tougher because they still the hint of reclamation there as a middle of the bullpen guy and we need that. 4. The other exception is Pineda. Only trade him if you can get a solid to good return in the form of pitching that can be on the MLB roster next year or a shortstop. If you can't get that, try to re–sign him NOW. He wants to stay, is a solid number 3 or number 4 starter (#3 if he gives you 30 starts, #4 the more likely event he gives you 20 starts) and he wants to stay. 2 years $20 - $25 million. 5. Avoid the temptation to trade guys who can be contributing parts of a contending team in the 2022 – 2024 timeframe and for whom there are no obvious replacements like Duffy, Kepler, Polanco, Arraez, Maeda, etc. unless a team overpays. Do not let other teams take our decent quality players unless we decide to trade all of them and start over. I don't think were ready to do that nor do I think we need to do that. 6. PLAY the young guys so we can evaluate them for next year around what we need to find over the winter. In the field, that means Rooker, Gordon, Larnach, Miranda all get a lot of at bats. Same for Sano, Refsnyder and/or Contreras if the FO thinks they can be contributors next year. Celestino is not ready, so he goes back to AAA at the very least. Rotvedt is in the same boat and should stay in AAA. Whatever you do, do not play guys like Astudillo and Cave at the expense of these other guys. Astudillo and Cave might be numbers 25 – 30 on the roster next year but we already know what they can do. Let's not be 1 of those teams that tries to eke out another 3 – 5 wins this season by playing guys really have no long-term future as significant contributors. 7. PITCH the young guys for the same reason. Hopefully after the trade deadline dust settles, there will be room in the starting rotation for at least Jax and/or Barnes, and hopefully for Winder. Give all of these guys a minimum of 5 or 6 start down the stretch and keep Ober in the rotation until he reaches his innings limit, then sit him and give the last few starts to someone else. Hopefully the bullpen will have room for at least some of Hamilton, Vasquez, Moran, and Cano. Get those guys at least 10 – 15 appearances each, again so you can see what we have. Send Alcala back to AAA if you need to to create room. Look, all of this sucks and seems like every move we made over the winter backfired. Having said that, we are where we are. We need to have a plan to move forward to make things better as soon as possible. I think this plan does that and, more importantly gives us the data we see how far away we are by the end of the season. That helps make a decision on guys like Berrios and whether to try to re-sign guys like Cruz and Pineda if he's traded. Stop mucking around and commit to a re-tooling this year or we're going to be stuck in never never land again next year.
    18 points
  4. I mean, how can you not love this trade? even if it doesn't work, they added a RP in AA......
    16 points
  5. I think the Twins did pretty well at the deadline. They did well in their trades of Berrios & Cruz, getting real value and quality players that are already playing and showing success at higher levels of the minors. They got rid of Happ, who had declined from being a solid pitcher in the first month or so of the season to a trash fire. The demerits are not moving Donaldson, Pineda, and Rogers (arguably Simmons too) but there are reasons for all of them, I think. We just don't know if there were good options for Donaldson that didn't require them eating far too much of the contract. He's still an excellent player when healthy and he's been pretty healthy this year so if they had to eat the rest of this year's salary (ok) and a big chunk of 2022 & 2023...then maybe not ok. Pineda is a guy they might be looking to keep to help anchor the rotation. Rogers was hurt and it probably tanked his value. Simmons is still a fine defender, but it didn't look like SS defense was an area of significant interest among contenders. I'd say they were slight winners by getting excellent value in the trades they made. It gets pulled back a little by not being able to make additional moves that seemed to make sense, but the net is still a positive for the Twins at the deadline. ESPN pegged them as losers...but most of that grade is influenced by the rotten season as a whole. That's fair, but looking at just the deadline moves, I'd say they "won" as much as you can when you're selling.
    15 points
  6. You must be kidding. To get anything for Happ is amazing, flat out amazing. Is he also a Top 50 in baseball?
    15 points
  7. Sorry but this doesn't pass the smell test. Shoe was DFA'd, he was effectively a free agent, and he made the decision to stay with the Twins rather than go sign a minor league deal elsewhere. If you think your team and its coaching is a significant factor for your poor performance, then why on earth would you accept an option assignment to the minors with that same team?
    15 points
  8. Takeaway #6. The Twins were not prepared to play this year. To have the manager say mid-season that they need to work on fundamentals and get back to playing fundamentally sound baseball, especially after winning 2 consecutive division titles really chaps my backside. What the heck were you working on, walk-up tunes and interviews?
    15 points
  9. Before we rush to call the Twins cheap skates, shouldn't we know a bit more about the "unique incentives package" and Buxton's counter-offer? Hayes seems to hint that Buxton wants more assured money in case he gets hurt again, which is totally reasonable, but isn't it also reasonable for the team to be wary of that? If the incentives are low-ball and meaningless, then I'd say the Twins are being cheap. If, however, he can hit 20M a year by just getting on the field, say, 60% of the time than I'd say they aren't being cheap at all. Only ten players in the entire league have gotten contracts in free agency over 4 years in the last three offseasons. Only 5 that have gotten 7 years or more in term: Harper, Machado, Cole, Rendon, and Strasburg. Teams don't hand out deals like this much anymore, so it wouldn't take those incentives being all that elaborate for them to be well in line with MLB behavior right now. (I'd argue they would be acting very generously on the term aspect relative to the rest of the league)
    14 points
  10. I don't get why so many people are disappointed in not trading Donaldson
    13 points
  11. I've posted this too much, but since this is a Pineda thread....... They have 2 veterans on the MLB roster to mentor the young players. I think we all under estimate the value of that. I'd try to extend Pineda 2 years. Then either sign or deal for a better SP in the off season. Pineda, Meada, FA/Trade + 2 from this system is what I'd start the year with. I think rotating the AAA / AA players thru this year, to get their feet wet and see their stuff against MLB players is important, and I think Pineda and Maeda being here to mentor them is also important.
    13 points
  12. This would be the Eddie Rosario with a sub-.700 OPS, an 84 wRC+, and whose new team traded him away in 4 months? That Eddie? The hurry in trading Berrios is that if you wait to trade him until next year, your best case scenario is 1 top 100 prospect, and your worst case scenario is he needs Tommy John, and you can't even QO him for a comp pick, meaning you get literally nothing.
    13 points
  13. As I surmised in the game thread, I'm guessing that he didn't go to the pen for two reasons: 1. It is a lost season, and he and the FO want to see if their pitchers can get out of jams. 2. The FO is trying to deal (or willing to deal) the three RPs that were on the bench, and he was instructed not to use them before the game even started. I'm guessing it is both of those.
    13 points
  14. I dare to say this because the risk can't be avoided. But could Buxton be a Puckett kind of face of the franchise? His talent and his potential is game breaking. Could he languish in the unfortunate hall of "what Could have been"? Absolutely! And the Twins could have a burn that lingers for a few years. But how do you ever "go for it" unless you take a risk once in a while? Despite being a frustrated fan, I can easily get why the Twins are trying to play things safe. I mean, realistically, how can you commit 10% plus of your payroll to a guy you don't even know can be on the field for 100 games or more? But how can you not ignore what he does when on the field and HAVE to believe that bad luck HAS to even out at sometime? That's the rub. $15M per with decent, honest incentives for 100 games and then 120 games that raise the annual value to $25M. Toss in an opt out after 4yrs if you need to. If he rejects that, I'm not sure what you are supposed to do at that point.
    13 points
  15. Get yer vaccines dammit. Florida just set a state record for new cases today with 21,000+
    11 points
  16. I wonder about those above who are critical for the Twins talking about trading Buxton. We don't know the context of how that happened. As I read it, they received calls inquiring about Buxton. Well, if someone calls you are gonna take it. Doesn't mean you ever considered moving him which is what the end result was. Also agree with the general consensus that I will miss Berrios, a lot. But after reading a national report that said the Jays got robbed and Nick's piece on Martin, I am excited that the return was big...really big. As for winning or losing at the deadline, is a win for me...big one. The two pitchers from Tampa for two months of Cruz is a huge return, much bigger than most expected. Furthermore, it would not be a surprise if at least one of the two is pitching every fifth day at Target Field next spring. If the reports I read are true, the Twins won the Berrios trade even though we will miss a special young man. Who knows, maybe the Twins go out and offer market value a year from this winter and he comes home...although I agree that would be contrary to how they usually do business. As for the Happ and Robles trade, I am amazed they got anything for that duo. Yes, they had to eat an unknown part of their contracts for the next two months, but to get any return is flat out robbery...IMO. And they got an actual major league pitcher as part of the Happ return. To be honest, I don't understand either of these deals. So for me its a huge win. Yes, there were others they didn't move. But did anyone expect them to be able to move Donaldson and his huge contract? Was a bit surprised that Pineda wasn't traded. Left me wondering if they will sign him to a two year extension before the year ends. But not knowing what, if anything, was offered for Pineda and others makes it hard to say they failed by not trading someone because if the offer wasn't adequate it makes sense to say no.
    11 points
  17. I love Martin and might drive the hype train. He was playing 3B at Vandy, but questions about his arm strength and accuracy led to a move to CF. You can live with seeing how that plays out while developing, but the likelihood is that SS/3B and CF won't be long-term homes. 2B/LF is probably how this plays out. He could turn out to be what you wish Arraez would be defensively, with a very similar offensive profile if the power doesn't develop.
    11 points
  18. Isn't he the guy Hrbek pulled off the bag in '91?
    11 points
  19. It will be interesting to see the prospect rankings and write ups when all is said and done. Come on, @Seth Stohs, get cranking!
    11 points
  20. So much for teams NOT dealing top prospects anymore!
    11 points
  21. Given FG and mlb.com have Martin in their top 25 overall, I think you are low on him. This is his first year in professional baseball, and he's hitting well (not great) in AA, and playing both SS and CF.......
    11 points
  22. I'd argue the Maeda trade has been an unquestioned win to this point.
    11 points
  23. The Twins got 2 decent pitching prospects, including one who was rated #98 overall in 2020, for a 41 year old DH on an expiring deal. As one of one the better relief pitchers in baseball consistently for the past 6 seasons and still with 1 1/2 years of control, Taylor Rogers should have a bit more trade value than as just a throw-in as it seems in deals #1 and especially #2.
    11 points
  24. Getting rid of Happ = Win. The rest is just details.
    10 points
  25. This post is exactly correct in that it identifies the necessary switch in franchise strategy given the poor results this year (this is what small to mid market teams do when the window clearly has closed - that’s just today’s MLB) and where the primary responsibility now resides for the successful execution of that strategy (coaching staff throughout the organization), Think about this possible starting lineup in 2023: 1. Arraez (2B) 2. Martin (LF) 3. Buxton (CF) 4. Kiriloff (1B) 5. Miranda (3B) 6. Polanco (DH) 7. Larnach (RF) 8. Garver/Jeffers/Rortvedt (C) 9. Lewis (SS) Bench: Gordon, Rooker, Celestino Obviously, there will be changes to this (i.e., maybe a Kepler or Sano turn things around), but the point is that with Buxton, Polanco and maybe Garver making about $25-30MM and the rest making close to league minimum, these 14 players cost under $40MM. Now think about the pitching staff. We should be able to develop at least three, hopefully 4, solid #2s-#3s out of the ten or so candidates currently in the system. Ideally, another three or four are in the pen. That’s over half of the staff on league minimum - let’s say another $10MM. Ownership will clearly spend $120-140MM to pursue a championship. There is now $70-90MM available to: a) add one or two #1-2 starters, b) build a shutdown pen like we used to have and like the ChiSox are doing, and c) add one or two solid position players/bats. There is a solid strategy here. The three key decisions under team control are to resign Buxton, play the young guys in 2021 and 2022 to see what you’ve got, and make sure you have the right coaching staff. As a mid market franchise, we can’t be blessed to realistically compete every year, We’ve had great runs and the possibility is there for another to develop. I, for one, am looking forward to watching the remainder of this year and next to see the plan develop.
    10 points
  26. Similar to Happ, getting something more than cash for Robles is a W. This guy looks like he might have a chance as a reliever, and even if he doesn't, who cares. No reason to keep Robles around. Let Stashak/Cano/Hamilton/Moran get his innings.
    10 points
  27. No, but there are economic realities that all but a handful of teams must confront. I don’t know why you’d expect the Twins to suddenly start spending at the top of the league. (This is all I’ll say on the matter, because it comes up literally every week in this website. It’s tedious, and no one has anything new or constructive to add.)
    10 points
  28. If this makes anyone feel any better, here's how a poll of over 700 Jays fans feel:
    10 points
  29. Good thing we've got the Aston Martin since our Rolls Royce is in the repair shop!
    10 points
  30. Very sad to see Berrios go. I'm definitely happy with the return. We could not have expected to get more than this. It's obvious Berrios was going to test free agency, so this is likely the best case scenario.
    10 points
  31. I think Martin is the sure* thing here, and the pitcher is riskier for sure.......Do they need pitching? Yes. But they also need hitters and fielders. *no player is a sure thing....
    10 points
  32. What Can the Santana Trade Teach the Twins About Berríos? Do NOT trade him for Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Philip Humber and Kevin Mulvey.
    10 points
  33. What in the world makes you think that Berrios would sign a five-year, $75M contract? He and his agent are looking at a much bigger contract. And he has said quite clearly that he wants to test the free agent market. Trade him now for as much as you can and then go after him in 2022.
    10 points
  34. Even accepting that this is true - and it's really not - "numbers" seemed to do pretty well for the Twins in 2019 and 2020.
    10 points
  35. Let's bring him up and tell him he's facing the White Sox and he's going to pitch 6 innings unless his arm falls off. He can pitch anyway he wants. Call his bluff. What do we have to lose?
    10 points
  36. Bit revisionist history, yes? Baddoo was coming off a significant injury and the missing pandemic minor league year and in his last organized play year hadn't actually done anything of note (slash line of .214/.290/.393) and hadn't taken a single AB above A-ball. The decision was never "protect Cave or Baddoo"; Cave was someone who had 2 years of success at the MLB level for the Twins (and a poor pandemic year) and was well-suited to be a 4th OF...and broke his back this season. How can you let Baddoo go? Because you're betting that no team is going to be willing to keep a completely unproven player on the roster for a full season when he missed 1 1/2 seasons of development. It's the same kind of bet that they made on Miranda, and it went well. But the choice at the time was keep Baddoo or keep one of Celestino/Rortvedt, both of whom were more likely bets to be taken in the Rule 5. (backup catchers who can field and call a game can be stashed on a roster even if they can't hit, and proven defenders in CF are easier to hang onto as well because both can still add value even if they're not ready to hit at MLB) I'm happy with Gordon's development so far and pleased to see him get the chance with the Twins. He's never going to hit for power, but he's got a good feel for the strike zone and if he can get on base at a good clip, give speed and positional flexibility off the bench, then he'll be a nice utility option.
    10 points
  37. At the risk of stating the obvious, I think a lot of the mistakes were based on overestimating the core talent in place and thinking the team would be playoff competitive this year if we just filled some holes in the complimentary group. That's why you keep a Cave around as a 4th/5th OF (which costs you a 40 man spot for Badoo), bring in Robles and Colome, look for veteran 4th/5th starters like Happ and Shoemaker, and sign a bunch of 30 year old relievers to be available at AAA (although Coloumbe has been pretty good). The real problem is that the middle of the order core turned out to be a bunch of inconsistent complimentary players, not lineup anchors. Sano is maddeningly inconsistent and shouldn't be hitting higher than 6 or 7 on a good team, and really is a streaky DH/bench player on a good team. Kepler is a 3rd/4th OF with a good corner glove/avg CF glove who can't really hit. Shouldn't hit higher than #7 in the order on a good team. Berrios is a solid 2/strong #3 starter not a #1, and Maeda is a #3, not a #2. Polanco can hit in your top 5 or 6 in the order, but he can only be a decent 2B, not really a SS. Same for Arraez with even less field value. Donaldson is good, but not great, Buxton still gets hurt all the time, and the BP is Rogers, with Duffy as a decent but not closer or 8th inning piece, and then a crapshoot. This isn't a core to supplement, it's a supplement looking for a core. Well, now we know. We do have part of the core in Garver and Buxton if he's healthy surrounded by Polanco and Arraez. Kirilloff looks like he can be a core guy. The pitching staff is still a mess, but Ober gives us some hope and there are others who deserve a shot. The thing to do now is develop internal guys and those you get in trades, not bring in fringe vets to fill holes. I think it can be done soon enough to be interestingly competitive in 2022 and a real contender in 2023. We just need to get this started now.
    10 points
  38. I would cautiously add Rooker to that list as a promise to come. He is hitting well at this point. If he can keep the K's down, he would be a valuable DH/OF.
    10 points
  39. Yeah, I mean this seems to be the key. If the Twins plan to compete in 2022, I don't see how subtracting Berrios and/or Buxton will accomplish that. Even if the return is stellar, we likely wouldn't be seeing any help from that haul until 2023-24. Essentially if the Twins trade Berrios, it seems to me they're waving the white flag on 2022 and expect to compete with core of Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, and Balazovich in a few years and they're going all in with those guys. Meanwhile Josh Donaldson will spend his last 2 years of his big contract floundering for a rebuilding club. Really tough spot for the Twins.
    10 points
  40. That's right. Fire sales are when a team dumps all its controllable assets to initiate a rebuild because they don't believe they have the MLB talent and farm system talent to be competitive in the next 2+ years. Fire sale would be Kepler, Polanco, Arraez, Donaldson, Maeda, Garver in addition to absolutely Berrios AND Buxton with the Twins making no legitimate attempt to sign either to an extension. The Twins have a silver lining to a terrible season right now in that they can get farm team talent to the MLB club and evaluate them without any risk to the season outcome. It remains to be seen if they're competent enough to do it.
    10 points
  41. Ceiling - if the power comes and he irons out all the defensive questions: Mookie Betts, with less speed. His floor: Marwin Gonzalez, Twins 2020. I do like my comp as a more versatile Luis Arraez as a median.
    9 points
  42. Anything for Robles was a win. Just like Happ, really.
    9 points
  43. I think he's insurance at CF, SS, and maybe LF.......I hope they sign Buxton. I don't want a full blow up.
    9 points
  44. Wow.....2 players Fangraphs has in the top 50 of all the minors! That's a haul......
    9 points
  45. Twins had the 9th best ERA in baseball in 2019. (4th best in 2020, but you don't want to look at that) I think the point is that the "numbers" were working for the Twins in 2019 when they were a top 10 staff.
    9 points
  46. Regarding waiver claims, let me offer a reminder... Burros are asses. Burrows are holes in the ground. Our front office is expected to understand the difference.
    9 points
  47. I’m wondering in the history of MLB if a team has ever hit seven home runs in a game and lost to a team that hit zero? Can’t be many times that has happened.
    9 points
  48. I'd keep them both. And Rortvedt. Garver has 2 arb years left (I believe) that will take him through his age 32 season. Jeffers should have 5 years left and Rortvedt 6 if my memory serves on their service time. Not a ton of catchers staying super productive beyond age 32, especially offensively which is where all of Garver's worth is. I think it sets them up well to have Rortvedt up and down as injury fill in the next year+ while he works on his bat in the minors then as Garver moves on Jeffers and Rortvedt provide a solid catcher tandem. Or if Garver is still mashing you keep him around as a DH/1B as he ages. And depending on what the Twins do with the DH position moving forward they could carry all 3 at the same time. I'd prefer a 12 man pitching staff with 14 bats, but that's a different conversation for a different day. But having 3 catchers on the roster allows for you to pinch hit for Jeffers or Rortvedt late in games without fear of injury causing you to put in an emergency catcher. Rotating Garver through DH/1B/C allows for a lot of flexibility in the lineup and keeping him in there more often. That's not so much of an option if the Twins go fulltime DH again, obviously. All that said...it all goes out the window if/when the service time rules change with the new CBA. But that won't happen til the offseason so I can backpedal after that. But catcher is a hard position to fill so keeping multiple MLB quality guys around would be my move.
    9 points
  49. The sad part is there was nothing really extraordinary or unusual about tonight's loss. Rather routine.
    9 points
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