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  1. TopGunn#22

    TopGunn#22

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    jmlease1

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    AceWrigley

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  4. Mark G

    Mark G

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Showing content with the highest reputation since 10/10/2021 in Blog Comments

  1. TopGunn#22

    Let Me Talk About Catchers

    I've commented on this several times as well. With the Marlins as a trade target, the Twins have both Garver and Jeffers who should be VERY interesting to Miami. MLB Trade values currently has Garver at 18.1 and Jeffers at 27.9. If the Twins are looking for someone like Sandy Alcantara it would take Jeffers and Larnach. I'd do that. If the Twins are willing to go for someone like former Golden Gopher Max Meyer (28.1) Jeffers in a one-for-one swap pretty much does it. If the Twins want to go BIG and ask for Meyer AND Sixto Sanchez (9.5) then a little something extra would need to be added with Jeffers. The thing is, Jeffers is a solid defensive catcher with power (14 HR's in under 300 PA's) whose younger with more years of team control. The Marlins catching situation is a disaster and one they will need to address this off season. Is Jeffers really worth more than Garver ? I don't think so either, but it depends what the Marlins think. With Rortvedt about a year away, I see the Twins dealing Jeffers and picking up a Jason Castro type for a backup. The Marlins have an embarrassment of riches with young pitching and a black hole at catcher. Larnach is just the type of young hitter a team desperate for offense should take a chance on. I'd hate to part with Larnach, been a fan ever since I saw him get clutch hit after clutch hit in leading Oregon state to an NCAA baseball title. But his value is much higher than Kepler's, so Kepler is worth more to the Twins at his currently depressed value, making Larnach available. Maybe Max figures out what he needs to do to hit better, maybe not, but the Twins can't trade guys like Kepler or Buxton when their current value is so low. I trade Jeffers to the Marlins in a package for young SP.
    6 points
  2. Good work. Another thing to consider is league batting averages have declined significantly too. JD's line drive rate was down and flyball rate up. Still, an OPS+ of 127 was higher than Polanco (125) even. JD at 3B-DH for the Twins next year is not a problem that needs fixing.
    5 points
  3. jmlease1

    Let Me Talk About Catchers

    are you just trolling in every thread now? Jeffers is a far superior defensive catcher by basically any possible metric, including the eye test. Astudillo got few chances at catcher this year because the Twins know he's not really any good back there. (Jeffers, even through his struggles, was a more valuable hitter at catcher as well) Astudillo is a fun player and obviously a likable guy, but he's not any kind of solution at catcher and doesn't hit or defend enough to deserve a spot on the 40-man, let alone the MLB roster.
    5 points
  4. Mark G

    Grading Falvey and CO

    I say this with all due respect and I strive to be polite, but i don't know how your first paragraph could be more wrong. Molitor a terrible manager? Baldelli couldn't carry his lineup card onto the field, much less know as much about the game. And the only modernization this FO has brought has been their analytics, which is primarily responsible for the situation we are currently in. The cupboards couldn't have been too bare when they came in, as we were a wild card team in their first year, and a few free agents coming in and having good years gave us 2 division titles. If they get credit for those years, they take full responsibility for this year as well; can't go back 5 years and blame Ryan for 2021. As for organizational depth, it improved by trading away key pieces from the team their first 2 years, and leaving Molitor to take the blame. Really not cool. And where is all of that organizational depth? A lot of it is on the IL, which seems to be the norm for this organization at all levels. I agree completely with the 2nd paragraph, and if they go down that path we can salvage the group that would have to be considered our base. I am rooting for them to succeed. And while I may disagree with a particular assessment, I love the fact we can debate politely.
    3 points
  5. F. The gaps in this team were clear after the terrible finish to 2020 and the FO made those gaps considerably worse. Instead of bolstering the starting staff, the bullpen and SS, they waited out the offseason for cheap free agents. And those they selected were historically bad - and then they stuck with them for far too long. They completely misevaluated young internal talent, and through trades and Rule 5 losses have now put the organization in a bullpen, starting rotation and OF talent deficit relative to what they lost. They bungled contract extension talks with Buxton, using a trade deadline ultimatum that seems to have backfired. The bottom line is this: they inherited a team on the cusp of postseason success. They now oversee a team with no established starting rotation, a team that will draft 8th overall in 2022, and with a farm system that is nothing to write home about (ranked 15th by MLB.com, even with the trade deadline additions). And we may have just seen Buxton's last game in a Twins uniform. It's a big offseason for them, and I'm always hoping for redemption, but I can't even understand any grade for this FO over a D-.
    3 points
  6. I have three people on my Please Do Not Trade list. Polanco is one (the others being Byron Buxton and Mitch Garver). We absolutely cannot afford to lose him at 2B. I love Arraez as much as the next Twins fan, but he's not a defensive superstar. He's a soft-contact, high OBP hitter. We shouldn't be so focused on pitching that we also trade away all our defensive and offensive strength. Polanco was our strongest asset in the infield this year by a healthy margin, and if they do consider a trade, they're going to want a big, big return.
    2 points
  7. Five minute major

    Grading Falvey and CO

    D. And the only reason this is not an F is because of fairly decent trading deadline moves, particularly the Cruz trade. For me, the entire Jake Cave deal is a perfect synopsis of the their inability to judge talent. Trading away a pitcher (yes he was very young at the time) who is now MLB material and then protecting him over Lamonte Wade Jr and Baddoo. How do MLB talent GM's miss so badly on this one. Particularly letting Wade go over him. Cave better be the first one released come 40 man decision time for 2022.
    2 points
  8. I honestly believe the league batting average is a function of the focus on drafting and developing 3 outcome hitters. It leads to more fly balls, which typically have low batting averages associated with them rather than factors which are outside the hitters control like pitchers or shifts. That's why I chose to compare Donaldson to himself rather than mention the league trend :)
    1 point
  9. DJL44

    Let Me Talk About Catchers

    Both Atlanta and San Diego would be interested in Garver. Seattle might also want him.
    1 point
  10. gman

    Let Me Talk About Catchers

    Jeffers was a rookie in 2021 as he had only 55 at bats in 2020. He never played at the triple A season before this year when he made a total of 103 plate appearances. It was worth noting that Jeffers started 77 games at catcher for the Twins this year, more than Garver has started in any season at any level. Hopefully in 2022 he won't suffer a sophomore slump. This may be why he is rated higher than Garver.
    1 point
  11. Yes, I agree the A's are not interested in a catcher. They want infielders and sluggers. I'm not sure what to add to Arraez and Rooker, but would give Duffey, maybe Dobnak and a minor leaguer like Steer or Cavaco. The idea we agree on - add pitching. I looked at the trade value site months ago but while it has some value the GM's almost certainly have totally different views on players. Garver is the perfect example. While I really think Jeffers will improve, Garver is clearly a better player for now and the next two to three years. The Twins could strike early with a few trades like what we hope to see and even overpay if necessary to complete the deals. Buxton's contract, however, is a key and may put a hold on things. I'm afraid if the Twins need to trade Byron that they might find it difficult to return the value they need from losing his talent. The Twins would need to allow teams an opportunity to talk contract with BB to increase his value. Hopefully the Twins are on this right now because getting resolution is not too important for the player but is crucial for the team.
    1 point
  12. Garver is the best of the three and I would hazard a guess that other teams put a higher value on Garver than Jeffers. The hope is that the Twins are better next year, at least above .500 and hopefully in a dead heat for the AL Central lead. In order to improve the team needs starting pitching. Miami and Oakland seem to be two possible trade partners and I'm looking at Alcantar and Meyers from Miami and Montas or Bassitt from Oakland. The question is what do the other teams need and want. Garver, Larnach, Sands, + for Alcantara and Meyers? If the Twins can settle the Buxton contract, then Celestino or others to sweeten the deal? Miami fans are suggesting Lopez for Abrams and Campusino from San Diego. It all gets a little crazy as we play with who would benefit our Twins and what players would be attractive to another team from the Twins roster. Garver is a good player and worth keeping, but at some point the Twins need to attempt to gain a pitcher. If Miami prefers Jeffers, who I believe will improve next year and beyond, then substitute Jeffers in the trade. Lastly, Rortvedt is the best defensive catcher of the three and he can make some adjustments at the plate. He is a mighty strong dude and seems to want to crush everything. A little experience, manage the swing, and he can become a decent hitter, in my opinion.
    1 point
  13. Rosterman

    Twins Arbitration Decisions Loom

    Decisions should be pretty easy this round. Of course, the Twins might actually win a couple of the cases to their advantage, too. Buxton is soooooo interesting. Let's give him a big raise, but how many games did he play this season, and last season, and..... Rogers is a lefty. As is Coulombe and Thielbar. All three are within reasonable amounts to keep on the team at this point. All three can be traded or basically removed if someone better comes along. Same with Duffey. If they all come to spring training healthy, and the Twins have struck out in the free agent marketplace, they are trade chips. Gant is interesting, a swing man no doubt. Did he like Minnesota? Would he sign for less, or consider signing for less elsewhere? Curious top see what the demand for his services would be. Minaya is cheap and has stuck with the Twins as a free agent for two seasons. Reward him and see if he excels again. Yes, the days of Willians may be at an end. Again, another guy that would be curious to see what the demand for his services might be. You can make him a highly paid AAA guy, but do we rally care that he can play somewhere anytime. Cave will find a new home. Refsnyder will still be available. At one point he looked like a lock, a keeper. But the Twins could probably do as well elevating Kerrigan or Contreras when the time comes. Refsnyder is behind Larnach, Rooker, Celestino right now. Really, Arraez is a Super Two? I think they got this one wrong.
    1 point
  14. I would hope they take a chance on a hard throwing arm in the rule 5 draft. Stick him at the back of the bullpen an hope you find a gem.
    1 point
  15. Sometimes we go about this the wrong way. When forced to add someone to the 40-man, you have to take someone off. Happily we have three that will leave soon: Simmons, Pineda, Colome. Now at 39. When adding Rule 5 guys to the roster, you have every hope they will play in 2022. Or, because of their signing status, they are too precious and you need to keep them. Royce Lewis is one such, high ranking, expensive...but with two wasted seasons under his belt. You gotta keep him. Why? The teams you most fear are those that are in rebuild and won't mind carrying a low-level guy for a whole season on their major league roster. The Twins did it with Santana. The Tigers did it with Baddoo. Baddoo, although a decent prospect, was still a High-A ball player. He was behind a wealth of names like Cave, Wade, Larnach, Celestino, Kirilloff for sure. That he played for the Tigers was unheard of in the minds of too many. But he did. The gamble you take. The Twins also will keep Miranda. He should be on the team in 2022 for sure, in some capacity. Now it gets iffy. You need to protect Winder, as he is close. Sands is also very close. Enlow is close to being close, just needs the works and innings. All three would be smart picks by any team to stash in the bullpen. By putting them on your 40-man, the Twins have the luxury of them all working as rotation arms at AAA ball and joining Duran and Balazovic and Strotman as possible future rotation arms for the Twins. That's thee new arms to go with three old ones, none that you would expect to break camp for the Twins unless they were in rebuild mode compared to being competitive. Anyways, now at 44 names on the roster. Two interesting pitching names, both bullpen arms and both converted hitters: Fundeburk and Gore. Gore might be closer and the Twins didn't advance him to AAA, so he may get bypassed. Unless Fundeburk is TOTAL lights out in AFL ball, he should also fall under the radar of other teams. I would take the chance to NOT add them. Palacios is an interesting choice. I would hope I could convince him to return on a minor league contract for some looks at AAA ball. I would have to choose between him or Gordon if I was going to make a 40-man add. I would keep Gordon at this point, especially with Lewis in the wings, and the potential of Martin, as well as Miranda. I worry that we will lose Trey Cabbage to free agency. Do we add him to the 40-man? Wander Javier is a 40-man add only because of the investment. Another team can grab him and thumb their nose that the Twins let a million-dollar kid walk away. This is a tough call, but I don't see someone grabbing him this season. He doesn't really look much better than last season, when he passed thru the Rule 5. So, we are at 44. We really only need to drop four players, then. Again, you drop players as you add them. At this point, not really a need for a 40-man spot. If you think you are going to do a Rule 5, then you make a spot now (or later, before the draft). If you sign a free agent, you drop a corresponding position player. That's the way to play. But we still need to drop four. Barnes and Thorpe and Smeltzer are left-handed and rotation possible arms. They should be keepers. Thielbar and Coulombe are left-handed relief pitchers, they can also be kept for the moment, to join Rogers and Moran. That means we have Garza, Stashak, Gant and Dobnak on the bubble. Dobnak will stay because of his contract, but he could be jettisoned to the minors and probably not claimed because of his contract. Stashak is a probable because we don't know where he sits in injury land. If Jax is claimed, good for him getting a job opportunity elsewhere. If the Twins designate him, hopefully resign him for depth. Garza is interesting. He would compete with any minor league free agent signings, and I assume the front office will do a number of those. We are going to easily get to 44, no doubt about that. Smeltzer, Thorpe and Stashak may be too injury prone to worry about NOT losing, so they could be lost. None contributed to the Twins in 2021. On the offensive front we have a gaggle of outfielders: Cave, Garlick, Refsnyder, Rooker. Assuming Larnach is in the real mix, Celestino is more valuable than any of the aforementioned names, and you have Arraez/Gordon in the mix, Kirilloff in left, and Miranda in play somewhere...you can jettison all four. I would probably keep the home-grown and cheap Rooker at this point. But he would be removable if you signed anther outfielder or a designated hitter. So, if we remove Cave, Garlick and Refsnyder, we only have to cut one of the many pitchers mentioned above, for the moment. And we still have Willians Astudillo on the roster. In the end, add: Lewis, Winder, Sands, Enlow, Miranda. Lose: Cave, Garlick, Refsnyder and one of Smeltzer/Thorpe/Stashak. We still keep Astudillo, Rooker, Coulombe, Thielbar, Garza, Jax, Barnes and two of Smeltzer/Thorpe/Stashak. Hey, and we also keep Gant, who MAY BE arbitration too expensive. But what is $4 mil these days? That's still ten guys - TEN GUYS - that can be removed for someone better! I don't see Gore or Fundeburk or Javier or Palacios or Cabbage playing in the majors in 2022 fer sure, and especially don't see another team gambling to start the season with any of them on the roster for the first few months.
    1 point
  16. tony&rodney

    Grading Falvey and CO

    I'm a Twins fan and have supported the team since they came to Minnesota. I do not have many criticisms of the current management team. They all have baseball backgrounds and knowledge. It is not understandable to me that anyone who believes themselves a baseball fan could take such a misplaced view of baseball acumen in criticism of Molitor. He is generally regarded by baseball players and insiders as among the most knowledgable persons in the sport in the last half century. Terry Ryan is still regarded as a top baseball man. I'm not suggesting that Ryan and Molitor should still be in their former positions but they had way more experience and knowledge than our current management folk. Change happens and it is fine, but the denigration of the former guys isn't just unnecessary, it is not accurate. It comes off as angry ill-informed opinion. Baldelli does a decent job and the Falvine duo get another opportunity this offseason to build a better baseball team. I think they will try hard to accomplish this feat and will listen and watch as next season plays out. I too am rooting for our current decision-makers to succeed.
    1 point
  17. peterb18

    Grading Falvey and CO

    Mark, excellent analysis!
    1 point
  18. Wax off

    Jorge Polanco and The Twins

    I was hoping we might sign one of those shortstops but looking at those price tags, I've lost hope. Just give Buxton an extension instead. This article has changed my mind on Polanco. Now I think we should move him back to SS, instead of trading him or keeping him at 2B. Not ideal, but we have no SS for next year or maybe even the next few depending on how Lewis pans out. But we do have Arraez, Gordon, Martin, Miranda, Lewis as options at 2B.
    1 point
  19. Dman

    Jorge Polanco and The Twins

    I guess you get more moving Polanco but looking at the numbers it seems almost better to trade Arraez rather than Polanco. Polanco has a known cost for the next 4 years and looks to be more than worth the investment. He has power which is a skill that has been very important to this organization. He is a top producer who is a borderline all star player. I just don't think this is the kind of player you give up and get better by moving. He is the exact type of player any team would be happy to fall into as he looks like a plus defender at his position. Has some speed. Has power and some OnBase skills. His K rate is good too. He is the wrong player to trade at the wrong time. You could trade him two years from now and still get a haul. If you want a guy to trade go with the guy with the shaky Knee's who has no power and isn't all that fast. Who likely can be replaced by Miranda or Martin. Heck if Gordon ups his game a little he might not be far off of Arraez's numbers. I just don't think Polanco is the right player to trade at this time.
    1 point
  20. I grade them an F, because it does take much talent to sit back in the driver seat with the best pitcher (Berrios) and best offense producer(Cruz) with teams who want to compete in the post games. Signing Cruz is the best thing that I accredit them. They are terrible at initiating big trades we need and evaluating talent. Polhad is delusional
    1 point
  21. Mark G

    Grading Falvey and CO

    This is a tough one for me, because if all I was looking at was talent acquisition and evaluation, the FO would come out fair to partly OK. Maybe a B- or so. And, as Greglw3 so eloquently stated, Baldell gets a D (at best) and that is trying to be fair. The thing that makes it tough is I really have no idea how intertwined the FO and the dugout are. Does Baldelli manage the way he does because that is how Falvine wants it done? Or do they let him run the dugout and they just try to give him the best roster they can to be competitive? If it is the former, the FO grade drops to D and Baldelli might get closer to a C. If it is the latter, then my original thought process stands. The FO would get the B- not just because of the talent evaluation, but the fact that there have been too many moving parts in 5 years. We either sign players to extensions, use up their options, or jettison them if the options are up and the jury is still out, then bring in FA's as a stop gap. The players they have brought in have been a mixed bag, but more positive than negative. Hence the B- all told. As for the way the team is managed, it is horrific, and if the FO has anything to do with that the grade drops off the table. Someone is letting Kepler continue to be "stubborn" as JM points out on TV. And he is hardly the only player refusing to adjust to shifts. Just as someone has made calculated decisions to eliminate bunts of any kind, the hit and run, stolen bases or aggressive base running in general, and has determined they can live with the strike out rate this team has produced. Slugging percentage has replaced batting average as a priority, and anything that resembles old school baseball has been discarded. I genuinely don't believe Cave, Simmons, Kepler, Donaldson (average wise), Austidillo, etc. hit as low as they did due to lack of ability; it appears there is a philosophy this team has taken on that certain hitters can thrive in and others can't. Now is that the FO, the dugout, or is there no separation between the two? Hard to give either a grade until that is clarified, and this organization doesn't believe we need to know. It is easy to point to the 2020 season being lost in terms of player development, and it is certainly true, but it is true for all 30 teams and exactly half the teams will finish over .500 this year, including 12 with between 86 and 106(7?) wins, so that can't be our excuse. Just as Shoemaker talked about his pitching style/mechanics being molded in their image while here, you have to wonder how it has been on the hitting side as well. Again, who decides that? I guess my long winded point is, it is a hung jury for me, and I suspect it always will be with this organization as long as they are as closed off as they are to questions. There is one thing they lead the league in; the most meaningless words used to say virtually nothing during interviews. Always give credit where credit is due, I say.
    1 point
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