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    Brock Beauchamp

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    Mike Sixel

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Showing content with the highest reputation since 09/09/2021 in all areas

  1. I'm continually confused by statements that the FO has "no idea what it is doing" "they never make good decisions" etc............... They literally won the division the last two years. You can be disappointed in this year, I think everyone is. But .... I think saying they are clueless idiots and we are only ever sold hope for the future....seems to completely ignore the last two years. PS. Before you point out "last year doesn't count".....every team played under the same conditions, and the Twins won. It isn't their fault Covid happened....
    22 points
  2. I'm somewhere in the middle ground, I guess, and would not forecast an abrupt housecleaning at the top. Still, this front office hasn't demonstrated that they have achieved their own benchmark of "sustainable success" on the field, as the current year is not only bad but gives little hope for serious contention in 2022. Maybe next year will surprise me. But the honeymoon is over, and I'm looking for results going forward and not merely hopeful talk about hard work and getting the process right or whatever. I'm not sure I could locate a better slate of executives to lead the team forward than what we've got - but conversely, if it turns out to be so bad that a new 5-year plan is needed, I'm not sure I would assign the same group to plan and execute it again.
    17 points
  3. Torres was just moved back to 2nd base because he isn't a shortstop. Why trade for another 2nd baseman? I don't mind looking beyond the big names in free agency, but the Twins need a glove at shortstop.
    16 points
  4. Seriously? You think Simmons is the worst signing ever, in all of Twins history? That's a pretty sensational proclamation, imo. I think there were worse signings this year alone than Simmons ... and the two other you mentioned I think were far worse.
    15 points
  5. This argument is so wildly inconsistent and one-sided it makes my head spin. The 2016 squad was injured but the 2021 squad is just bad. Here are the five years of winning percentage of the Ryan administration: .407, .407, .432, .512, .364 Here are the five years of winning percentage of the Falvey administration: .525, .481, .623, .600, .443 This "disastrous" 2021 season would have been literally THE SECOND BEST SEASON under Ryan. You're talking about the great young core - and there was a solid young core, no doubt - but the Twins were exiting THEIR WORST SEASON IN HISTORY and fresh off a season where the team fielded players like Byung Ho Park, John Ryan Murphy, Kurt Suzuki, Ricky Nolasco, the desiccated husks of Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins, etc. etc etc. The 2016 squad wasn't "ravaged by injuries", they were simply a terrible ****ing baseball team, one FAR WORSE than the 2021 squad... and that was the fifth year of bad baseball, excepting the decent-but-still-nothing 2015 season. And let's not even get into the draft picks that preceded those seasons where literally a mediocre 11th man was the best outcome out of three consecutive top six picks. Falvey also inherited that complete failure of drafting, one that still reverberates today. You're not even attempting to be objective about this front office, gunnar. Up until about 15 minutes ago, you have referenced 2016 as a "total system failure" more times than I can count but now that it's a conversation about the Falvey front office, that 2016 squad was just injured and had so much potential. I'm not even making excuses for Falvey, I've been particularly disappointed in their pitching development, but let's inject a dose of reality into this situation. Ryan's teams showed little signs of returning to respectability while this front office has won more often than it has lost.
    14 points
  6. Seeing where "Pitch #6" to Gardner was according to the illustration, it doesn't look like such a horrible call... A missed call, but very borderline. It's also OK to then not give up the three-run homer... even though (presumably) everybody knew that's exactly what was going to hit.
    13 points
  7. Luis Arraez has a career .313 AVG / .376 OBP / .781 OPS, while playing essentially league average defense at multiple positions. He's also 24 years old and under team control until 2026. That seems like a pretty underrated player to me. I truly don't understand how that is overated for the type of player and role he plays.
    13 points
  8. So the '16 team gets a break because of injuries, but the 2021 team doesn't and the FO needs to go? Don't follow the logic there. Also, don't agree at all that the core of Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, and Rosario were going to win no matter what. That's 1 good, not great starting pitcher, 1 elite talent who took forever to figure it out and has never stayed healthy for a full season, the streakiest hitter in baseball who doubles as the biggest K machine in the league, a gold glove type RFer who's a slightly above average hitter, a top hitting SS who couldn't field the position, and a below average defensive LFer with a slightly above average bat who was prone to more than his fair share of mental mistakes. Twins win percentages since 2010: .580, .389, .407, .407, .432, .512, .364, .525, .481, .623, .600, .430. Since becoming the Twins in 1961 the team has won fewer than 40% of their games 6 total times. Twice in the last 10 years including the season before Falvine took over. They're going to end around 44 or 45% this year probably. You're so upset about this season that you want the FO fired yet it's better than all but 2 of the 7 years prior to them taking over.
    13 points
  9. While there's a lot of merit to your post, this comment feels really disingenuous. You mention they "nearly" made the playoffs in 2015 but fail to mention that they fielded literally the worst team in Twins history in 2016. Let's not pretend as if they didn't inherit a truly awful baseball team, sporting the worst record the franchise has posted in 60 years of Minnesota baseball.
    13 points
  10. That's it... I might just bet on a sports game for the first time in 2022 and put money on the Yankees every single time they play the Twins. Either I will make a profit since the Twins are guaranteed to poop themselves every time they play New York, or I will break the Twins' horrible streak by losing money. A win-win, perhaps.
    11 points
  11. Gotta love Ryan so far as he has been excellent. But let's not forget he has only started 2 major league games. That's right 2 games. Don't you think it's a little premature to pen him in as a top level starter for the next decade? Give him a chance to be who he is and keep learning before we put him in the hall of Fame.
    11 points
  12. Have no interest in trading with the Yankees as they usually don't work out well for the Twins. Also, have no interest investing prospects to solve the shortstop question which should take care of itself a year later when Lewis/Martin should be ready. Would rather see them do: A) nothing, with Polo/Gordon/Arraez manning the middle infield spots; or .B) signing a veteran to a one year contract.
    10 points
  13. Nice that we still got a taste of Twins playoff baseball even in a non-playoff year, That loss would fit right into the streak.
    10 points
  14. Thielbar is almost a completely different pitcher this second time around. And his time with Driveline and the new pitching development staff with the Twins have unlocked a lot for him. This thread is from August 2020, but it still applies today. Driveline helped him improve his spin rates/spin direction so that the fastball and the curveball now have mirror spin at nearly 100% active rates. The Twins helped him activate more lower half muscles by staying in his glute longer during the delivery process (it's probably no wonder why he's able to generate a little more velo, especially late in the season, when he's not solely generating off his quad and arm). I think this year you also see a little bit better movements out of his top half as well. He get a bit more layback in his shoulders, aiding in that slight velo increase. Credit him and the S&C staff for working on that. He's also moved over to the third base side of the rubber this year, allowing for a more direct path to the plate. As someone with that good 12-6 spin, this provides the best route and maximizes that spin direction.
    10 points
  15. Wouldn't the argument then be that it's not fair to call 2021 representative of the 2018-2021 window?
    9 points
  16. I think this depends entirely on how you view the hand they were dealt. I think you and I disagree on this but they were given a team with a nucleus of Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, Rosario along with solid vets in Santana, Gibson, Escobar, Dozier and a few up-and-coming prospects who, while not core quality, were good in May, Rogers, Duffey and Garver. The team was a year removed from nearly making the playoffs. They were also gifted a solid farm system and the first pick in the draft as well as a supplemental first rounder. That core was going to win, no matter what. The FO's job was to keep the window open and support the core. I think they failed pretty substantially on both of those parts. You can disagree. I think the marks against the FO are pretty strong - they clearly did not understand/properly value the talent they had in the system. In their first season, they didn't have any clear direction on what the team could do - they tried to trade their best player before the season started but failed and were sort of mocked for overreaching. Then they decided to go with what they had and even traded for another starter before completely reversing their position and trading for the future while the team went ahead and made the playoffs despite the FO, not because of it. They then extended Molitor and changed their minds a year later. No idea of the direction they wanted. The talent they lost - especially in 17-18 - really hurt the future of the Twins. The pitching pipeline failed to develop. The drafts have been mediocre. I've seen enough even though I'm sure they'll come back next year.
    9 points
  17. I fully agree. Prior to Falvine coming in our team laughed at advanced stats and doing things like shifting or playing against norms. Now we go full 180, and they are all in on advanced stats. I am of the thought that mixing the two is best practice. Sometimes players do not fit into the math mold or the norm and that is not a bad thing. To me the advanced states and thoughts on bunting or stealing only looks at the whole game but not at the player. Because players get told you cannot bunt because history shows it is bad, they never learn to do it well. Some guys bunting will get them on base, and if they have the ability to steal they can get the double that you want him to hit. Sure not every guy can do this, but why have a 100% never for all players? Same with the third time through rotation, not every guy follows that general rule and some do better if they get to a third time because they have figured out what is working that day well. Some guys have breezed through the first 2 times, why not let them see a third time. Not every pitcher will have it going each day so if the guys is going well, no need to pull him for a pen arm just because math history says so, let the game develop for each game.
    9 points
  18. Yup. This is just recency bias and I get Simmons has been bad, but since he came out against vaccines and made comments against them, people have been a lot more negative towards him. I'm not defending him, he's been bad. I don't see how Simmons signing though could even be considered close to the Nishioka signing. Below are the stats for both. I don't know how you can make a case for SImmons over Nishioka. Nolasco is up there too because of the length of the deal. A 1 year deal can't be the worst ever for me as you can wash yur hands of the player after 1 year. Simmons Nishioka 1 year deal 3 year deal 116 GP 71 GP .221/.286/.275 (.561) .215/.267/.236 (.503) OPS+ 58 OPS+ 41 Nothing about the Simmons signing says it has been worse than Nishioka. Simmons has been very bad too. You could make a case for Nolasco as he was terrible for a team that desperately needed pitching.
    9 points
  19. Mike Sixel

    How quickly we Forget

    What analysts are you talking about. Every one I read said it made sense to deal Berrios. They admitted they didn't know if the FO planned to rebuild or retool, but that in no way implies they don't have a plan. Hell, they might have changed their plan when Maeda went down. Changing your plan as the result of events makes you smart, not wishy washy. As for the FO, I want to be clear here.....I don't love their drafts. And, the jury is out on their ability. But that's not the point of this thread. People are literally posting they don't know poop about pitching, and only sell the future. They took the ERA from one of the worst, to top 10 in short order....they won two divisions.
    8 points
  20. We're actually pretty close in opinion on this, I suspect.... where you're slightly bearish on the front office, I'm slightly bullish but we agree there are problems that need to be resolved. But one thing I think everyone here should be able to agree on is that neither Falvey nor Levine are idiots. And if they're not idiots running a billion dollar organization, I'm able to infer that they do, in fact, have a larger plan they are orchestrating, even if I can't see it clearly from where I'm standing.
    8 points
  21. I've said this in other threads of similar nature, but this FO was tasked with rebuilding the organization from the ground up and ownership has never been of the impatient ilk. So, they're going to get the opportunity to see this through. And they've made no indication that they won't. The game had passed the previous regime's pitching philosophy by, so it's going to take time to build that pipeline. I'm not saying that I'm sold that it's happening, but this FO is going to get that opportunity. They appear to be on the cusp of that coming to fruition, so jettisoning them now makes little sense. If it doesn't work out, then the decision is easy. If it does, the decision is easy. They're at that tipping point right now. At this particular point in time, the effort is incomplete so making a decision one way or another makes little sense.
    8 points
  22. The players were terrible in 2016. A new FO comes in, emphasizing analytics to help drive improvement. The players improve enough to make the playoffs. Seems silly to just assume the players were always going to improve, regardless of any other factor, like perhaps a FO with greater ability to develop players? Is your argument that Park, Murphy, Suzuki, Nolasco, Hughes, and Perkins would have been good if they weren't injured? Otherwise, you're essentially saying that the 2016 team would have been better if the bad players had been able to play more. It's not just that Stewart, Gordon, and Jay didn't turn out--it's that they were all top 6 picks in 2013-2015, and before this year, had combined for only 62 IP of 4.80 ERA, all from Stewart. Ignoring that as a factor is silly--the Twins should have 2-3 guys in their prime able to put up 1-2 WAR each right now, and they're getting nowhere near that. Of the 7 players you listed the FO shouldn't have let go, Anderson has only pitched 2 innings in the minors this year, so he wouldn't have helped. The other 6 have combined for 5.9 WAR--for what it's worth, Pineda, Thielbar, Jeffers, Kepler, Donaldson, and Garlick have combined for 5.8 WAR. It's also too early for their first round picks to truly make a difference when you account for the fact that their first 1st rounder was barely 4 years ago, and has been out this entire year, and that every MiLBer lost all of 2020. None of their first round picks had been able to get even 3 full seasons of pro ball going into 2021, and 2 of the 4 had less then one season (Cavaco and Sabato). Are they really supposed to be able to transition that quickly? This FO spent money in FA on Cruz x2, Pineda x2, Happ, Donaldson, Shoemaker, Colome, Simmons, Parker, Perez, Gonzalez, Schoop, committing $213.5M over just the past 3 off-seasons--my quick search at the source below shows that's more than the Twins spent on their ENTIRE roster in any TWO years of their history prior to the Falvine era (the only exception is if you combine 2011 with either 2015 or 2016--that would get you either $218M or $221M). The only year of the Falvine era that didn't have higher payroll than any other year in Twins history was 2017, their first, and that's because teams that lose 100 games generally don't go out and spend like crazy. The idea Falvine doesn't spend in FA is just not supported by fact or reality. This FO has been good--the proof is in the record. That doesn't mean they were good this year. It doesn't mean they'll continue to be good next year or the year after. But to jettison a front office that has produced playoff seasons in 3 of their 5 years at the helm is ridiculous. I also have to wonder how much better the Twins' pitchers WAR might be if Maeda, Pineda, Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer, Rogers, Duran, Balazovic, and Winder hadn't all spent significant portions of the season hurt. You're perfectly fine with giving 2016 a pass based on injuries, despite the fact that the 2016 team was significantly worse, so why not 2021? https://twinstrivia.com/salaries-2/
    8 points
  23. What's interesting to me is that the same reasons used to defend the 2016 squad can also largely be used for the 2021 squad. Yet, the 2021 squad has managed to win more games and still has 3 weeks to play. I'm not sure that I follow how one gets a pass and the other doesn't.
    8 points
  24. He's doing great so far. Hope he continues to have this kind of success. He does still need to keep working on his off-speed stuff, but it does look better than initially advertised, and the curve/change make him more than just a 2-pitch guy. He's definitely had some hard-hit balls and big flies that have landed in gloves already...if a couple of those warning-track flies against Cleveland had gone in the seats we would be talking about him very differently. But I do think the fastball plays, and getting tape on him isn't necessarily going to fix that for hitters. It's one thing to know a guy has different action on his fastball and still another to hit it. I like his command so far (impressive for a rookie), I like how fast he works (not a fan of guys who meditate on the mound, contemplating the universe), and I think if he can keep working on the edges of the zone he'll be very successful. And if he can tick up the comfort level and action on that change? Could be fun. He's going to have a few bumps. Not going to be shocked at all if he has a blow-up start in Sept, but that won't change my opinion on him: he can start in this league and unless he totally collapses the rest of the way he should be penciled in to the rotation for next year.
    8 points
  25. Ryan's sample size is simply too small to generate a reliable extrapolation. As an example, back in 2013 Andrew Albers had better results in his first two starts major league starts than Ryan did in his.
    8 points
  26. Frankly, I think it's time to show Thorpe the door unless he walks into his next bullpen session and hits 92mph.
    8 points
  27. At least one Twin will win an award this year. Joking aside, this is pretty cool he got to be the first Twin to win this. Thank you for your service, Griff! Jax Wins Award
    7 points
  28. The usage of Moran, both with the Twins and the Saints, has been extremely odd to me. He always gets sent out for two, sometimes three innings, like a long reliever. Given the pitches he has, shouldn’t he be used for an inning, maybe two on rare occasions?
    7 points
  29. The Hicks and Cave trades are good examples of the differences between a top-tier and second-tier MLB club. In each case, the Yankees assessed areas of organizational strength and used surplus prospects to acquire high-upside players who were sold low. Pretty clear how both of these turned out for the Twins, despite different FO staff at the helm. One wonders why Falvey and Levine can't do the same with Rooker, Jeffers or Larnach, or couldn't have done so with Wade or Baddoo. But it's these kinds of moves that separate the best from the also-rans.
    7 points
  30. Cave has done himself no favors this year by trying to play hurt (if indeed that has been the issue--given the vast difference between his stats in 2019/2020 and this year, I am inclined to believe that). When healthy, I think Jake Cave is a very good 4th outfielder. That said, I don't think 4th outfielders are something a team should have to resort to trades in order to acquire, and they certainly shouldn't give up pitching prospects to do it.
    7 points
  31. I don't think I'd include any of these three in a list of "underrated." To first determine who is under or over rated, we kind of have to have a ratings system. And, that has to do with how fans perceive a player's value to the team and what it should be and then where that player is. So, here would be my rankings: 1.) Miguel Sano - There are still people who think that he is a terrible player. Meanwhile, in his last 75 games, he has hit .244/.321/.496 (.817) with 16 doubles and 17 home runs. "But he strikes out too much!" Yes, he does, but his 34.7% K% is the lowest of his career, and with today's game, he has played in a career-high games. I get that his defensive metrics haven't been good and his overall numbers still don't look great, I do think he's a bit underrated especially when you look at what he has done during his career, which include a couple of legit good seasons, an All Star appearance and 157 homers. 2.) Josh Donaldson - People continue to talk about all his missed time due to his leg injuries or his lack of production. However, he is behind only Jorge Polanco and Andrelton Simmons in games played. He's second in plate appearances. He's also hitting .249/.348/.470 (.818) with 21 doubles and 22 homers. His defense certainly has taken a step or two backwards due to the lack of speed and range, but his offense has been good. 3.) Mitch Garver - I continue to hear from people asking if Garver is any good or if he'll ever hit again. Yes, last year was a bad year, but he only played like 25 games, and yes, he struggled in April. In his last 44 games of the 2021 season - which was on both sides of a pretty gruesome injury - he has hit .279/.408/.612 (1.020) with 10 doubles and 11 homers. He also returned to having more plate discipline. And, what he did in 2019 was amazing. That would be my three, and I certainly don't expect everyone to agree with it.
    7 points
  32. Tyler Duffey was a starter in 2016, and pitched to a 6.43 ERA. As recently as 2018, Duffey pitched 59 innings at AAA--this FO moved him to the bullpen, and made him a weapon, they did not inherit that. Santana was 34 when the 2017 season started--he was solid, but given the pitching aging curve, it would be reasonable to expect him to decline in the next 1-3 years, which he did (due at least somewhat to injuries). I don't think you could call Santana a good piece for the future in March 2017--at best he was a good piece for the present. So here's what the FO got for the future when they took over; a young potential #1/#2, a young #3, and two good-not-great bullpen arms. You're right, it's not nothing, but let's also not pretend like that situation was somehow playoff-caliber on the surface of it.
    7 points
  33. What's wrong with cookie monster?! I mean he should probably get checked for diabetes, but otherwise he seems like a nice enough dude.
    7 points
  34. He's a human, I care about him.......
    7 points
  35. In 2016 they inherited a Manager, a farm system, and a draft class. They kept (and still have ) many top executives from the "Twins Family" still in their ranks, but it has only been the past three seasons (counting this and 2020), that they managed to re-format the farm system, and organization, in their dream. The class of 2014 was when the Twins drafted a bunch of pitchers who never panned out. Gordon remains, but names like Burdi, Clay, Reed, Curtiss, Hildenberger have left the Twins and are still looking for that MLB paycheck. Also names like Taylor Hearn, Sam Hillaird, Dalton Gillespie and Mike Baumann are playing in other organizations. Most everyone else is gone or never made it. Players from 2015 either have made the Twins, or are soon to be gone. We have Moran, Stashak on the team from that year. They traded away Blankenhorn, Vasquez and Wade. Wiel was released. Lujan and Cabbage are soon to be free agents. Names like Tyler Jay, Kyle Cody, Colton Eastman, Blake Cederlind, Dalton Sawyer, Johnathan Engerman, Tristan Pompey are still in major league ball. The 2016 draft doesn't have much left in Twins land. Kirilloff, Rortvedt, Jax are with the big club. Balazovic is still in the wings. Baddoo and Wells are playing elsewhere with modest success, as are names like Gregg Deichmann, Sean Poppen and Tom Hackimer bidding time elsewhere. The Twins still have to make decisions on Ryan Mason and Caleb Hamilton. that is it for guys from that draft still in baseball. Now the new administration got to draft. We are in Rule 5 territory with guys drafted in 2017. Ober, Rooker and Barnes have made it to the majors. Royce Lewis should've, but WILL be protected. Faucher was traded away and Rickey Ramirez was stolen in the Milb Rule 5. Names like Johnny DeLuca, Patrick Bailey, John McMinn, Max Meyer, Luke Miller, Griffin Roberts, Joe Record, Gabriel Rodriguez, Chandler Taylor, Cade Smith are in different organizations. The still remaining prospects are Enlow, Leach, Bechtold, Molina, Contreras, Gore - all Rule 5 eligible. Shows you how few players of the 40+ drafted do actually stay in a system for 3+ years. 2018 gave us Jeffers and Larnach. Both are still a bit raw, and we will see what 2022 brings us. But there are still 17 prospects in the system, including names like Winder, Sands, Williams, Gross, Funderburk, Schulfer, Snyder, Pinketon, Neff and Ritter. Erik Cha and Ryan Holgate are playing elsewhere. Winder is the one that needs protection. 2019 has 21 prospects still in the system as well as the FOUR members of the Class of 2020, which was a lost year for many lower level prospects. Cavaco many of us have voiced as being a bust, Canterino, Gipson-Long, Holland, Prato, Legumina, Mooney, Julien, Varland have given us some notice. Right now, the Twins are sitting with some 120 prospects that they have signed, traded for, working on developing in their DSL program. Probably going to see close to 12-18 cut shortly, but they did sign 12 of their 21 class of 2021 whoa re all in play in Ft. Myers. Can the Twins also trade from minor league depth? Yes. So, yes...let's wait and see what comes from the two guys the Twins hired AT THE END OF 2016 who inherited whatever the Twins were fielding, and starting in 2018 was able to start their remake/remold of the team, only to have the minors shattered in 2020. And, remember, we are also working with revenue losses in 2020, and probably 2021. The Twins absorbed a lot in 2020 by paying many minor league folks a full salary, as well as keeping most of the operations staff under contract. Compared to over all budget, it was cheap...but still had to keep Ft. Myers going. This year has been tough. Remember, they signed a bunch of guys like Happ and Shoemaker and Simmons and Colome as placesetters, hoping folks like Duran, Balazovic would be pitching and Lewis would be in the field by now. They expected to have Kirilloff in the line up, but more the second half than the first, which is why they had quite a few minor league free agent corner outfielders in the mix, as well as Cave who was out for a significant amount of time. And do wish that Garver would've kept Jeffers, perhaps, in the minors for more of the season. When they signed Donaldson, Miranda didn't look like he did this year (and can't quite understand why they aren't letting Miranda get at least 20 games of MLV ball under his belt going into spring training). I'm sure we also expected quite a bit more from Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer. It's hard to think the Twins have had only five general managers in their history. One being Griffith doing everything to keep from hiring others, Fox as the wedge between Griffith/Pohlad, MacPhail was the first true modern GM, from outside, and was wooed away because he was good. Terry Ryan took the job, but really didn't see it as his career. Bill Smith was a good baseball man, but NOT a good baseball man. And with Levine and Falvey the Twins actually went outside the organization HUGE BIG TIME to bring in bright, YOUNG, innovative administration. Anyone else new coming in would just also tear things apart. Or we just promote the same tired bodies from within and always a series away from going deep in the playoffs, if we can beat most everyone in the division. I'm still hoping that Levine and Falvey will take us beyond being competitive IN THE DIVISION to being the team to beat in baseball. They supposedly had a five year plan for 2018-2022. Because of 2020, I'm willing to give them until 2023.
    7 points
  36. From 2022 I'd like to see the following things: 1) A real step forward from some of our high picks. Sabato seems to be turning a corner, that needs to continue. Chase Petty needs to show some stuff. Cavaco needs to look like a top pick. Royce Lewis needs to show why he was taken where he was. Ditto Larnach and Kiriloff and Wallner. Most of the top picks were hitters and we're not seeing enough from them at this point. They don't all need to be amazing, but enough to feel good. 2) We've developed or acquired a lot of pitching that is currently in AA or AAA. We need Balazovic, Duran, Winder, SWR, Strotman take a step towards being a big leaguer. Either by getting their feet wet or dominating enough to show they deserve to be in the picture. Not all of them, of course just like before, but enough of them to feel good. 3) You've got money to spend. Assets you can move. Have an offseason that shows what your plan is. Whether that is aggressively selling, aggressively buying, aggressively trading to rework the roster, whatever that might be. Not waiting until late February for values. Plant your flag.
    7 points
  37. They rank well in those categories, but the numbers can be misleading. The number I look at the most is the old stat of the team scoring 3 runs or less and 4 runs or more, and what the records of each are. We do things like today; 6 homeruns, 8 in the last two games, and that jacks up the numbers but not the record. Through tonight the Twins have scored 3 runs or less in 47% of our games to date and that, more than anything, is why we are 16 games under .500. I have never been much for the SLG and the OPS. I look at runs produced, which comes from runs scored and RBI's. And to do both, you need more than solo home runs now and then. The launch angle and the MPH exiting the bat are fun to see once in a while, but I will take a good average hitter every day, and we just don't have enough. Having said all that, yes, pitching is still a major problem we need to solve.
    7 points
  38. wsnydes

    How quickly we Forget

    The biggest hangup that I have with this guaranteed to be good core is that only one of them was a pitcher. And he wasn't even a legitimate ace. Even in today's game, you don't win without pitching. This FO is what put that pitching around the position player core and filled out pitching staffs and the remaining position players. While I think it crazy to say that a group of players will win regardless, even accepting that notion still ignores the pitching that got them to where they did go. If 2019 showed us anything, it's that teams still can't solely hit their way through the playoffs. Pitching is still required. It's perfectly reasonable to give credit to the previous regime for the position player group and acknowledge the current FO for their contribution. The last two division titles don't happen without contributions from both.
    7 points
  39. Guess I don't see the connection there. 2021 is the statistical outlier (I know some will be automatically turned off by the word statistically, but doesn't change the facts). The Twins team ERA improved every year since they took over, was the 9th best in 2019, and 4th best in 2020. In the totality of Twins pitching results since Falvine took over 2021 is the outlier. I don't get what trading Berrios has to do with the overall success of the Twins pitching the last 5 years. Trading Berrios was an asset management move in a lost season. Add more assets to help keep the window open going forward instead of putting all your eggs in the 2022 competition window. At some point it all comes down to the prospects performing. I think this is Falvine saying "we're all in on our system." Maybe it's a Pohlad mandate. Maybe they were told "put up or shut up" when it comes to developing the pipeline. But with the loss of 2020 most of their prospects are going to be hitting the majors at a more advanced age than you'd like, and it's time to see what they have. 2021 falling apart from game 2 on solidified things. The second half of 2021 has seen a return to the bullpen results they'd produced the last couple years and puts thing back in line with what they were establishing as their norm. 2019 gets pushed aside as "it's easy to win when you hit 307 HRs" as if the pitching was terrible, when in fact the pitching has been very good the last 2 years. I'm not saying I love Falvine, or Rocco, or that I'm predicting a 2022 World Series championship, but I think they earned a mulligan with their previous performance and the pipeline needs to be opened to see if it flows before we dump those that built it. At this point 2021 is an outlier. Don't make decisions on 1 data point. At least give them 2022 and see if adjustments are made and they get back on the curve they'd established before 2021 fell into a Colome lead sinkhole.
    7 points
  40. chpettit19

    How quickly we Forget

    No argument can be made that the Twins pitching completely destroyed this season before it ever got off the ground. The Twins had the 9th best ERA in baseball in 2019 and the 4th best in 2020. Their team ERA had improved every season since Falvine took over. "Since the July 30 trade deadline — a span of 36 games, or roughly a quarter of the season — Twins relievers are 11-0 with a 3.20 ERA. They lead the league in Win Probability Added (by a wide margin, too) and rank third in ERA." That's a quote from Gleeman's Athletic article today. Doesn't make this season any better, but it falls in line with the norm that was established coming into this season, and one could argue adds another data point to the argument that they've actually done quite well on the pitching side. You're ignoring all the pitching results prior to this season and saying they're all the outliers while this season (which is actually the outlier) is what this FO can really produce. Now we haven't seen them produce the "pitching pipeline" that they need for sustained success, but they have about 10 guys who should be ready to debut next year. You seem to want them fired after this year. Based on all the information I just provided you're ready to blow up the FO and bring in new people based on 1 outlier 1st half of the season and right before we actually get to see if the pitchers they've been developing can actually provide the pipeline. Don't get why the strategy wouldn't be to at least give them next year to see if the young guys come up and succeed. Cuz if they do and they've developed their pipeline you want them to still be in place to keep it churning, not some new guys as you watch Falvey and Levine go elsewhere and start building a pipeline there.
    7 points
  41. This. Exactly this. I'm wildly disappointed in this season and disappointed at the lack of pitching advancement within the organization. But I'm not ready to toss them out on their asses quite yet, they receive at least one more year to show they can pivot and that 2021 was the aberration, not the expectation going forward. Their big selling point was pitching, something they have yet to develop other than Ober... but after losing basically their entire farm system in 2020, they deserve one more year to show outcomes, good or bad. And the result of those 2022 outcomes should determine their continued employment.
    7 points
  42. I guess I am ready to agree with both sides of this argument, and I'll let next year decide for me what I think of the front office. So far, I am not a fan of this front office and I am not a Rocco believer, but I was as ready as anyone to replace TR - and was just as stumped by some Molitor decisions as I am of Rocco's.
    7 points
  43. I cannot decide what future he might have except to say that he has to be with Ober in next years rotation. Maeda will not be back so I hope other young arms emerge to fill out the rotation. What I like is his relaxed confidence.
    7 points
  44. One of the sneakiest, under-the-radar, silver linings of 2021 has been what Celestino has done in AAA this season.
    7 points
  45. We all need to click Like on this blog post of Brock's so that he can keep the prize he so clearly esteems.
    7 points
  46. Ryan was traded for on July 29, pitched in the Olympics and then reported to the Twins on August 15. He’s been a Twin for a month. How much molding and team building happen in a month? he’s 25…
    6 points
  47. Especially if New York and Boston end up watching the whole postseason on TV.
    6 points
  48. About time. The bullpen has actually been kinda decent since the deadline but still, he could have replaced any number of guys several weeks ago.
    6 points
  49. Mike Sixel

    How quickly we Forget

    Y'all are awesome..... But my point was pretty specific.... Anyone saying they are idiots, and only sell the future.....? Has not witnessed the two years before this. For the more details..... Look at the awful minor league pitching they inherited, even if you count Luis Gil, they literally inherited one possible starting pitcher. And a young Berrios. That's it. And people say the pitching should be fixed, after that mess, and last year's lost season. That's not very realistic. I don't love many of their decisions, and really hate their drafts, but to claim they are clueless, to say they know nothing about pitching after what they did the two years before this? You aren't being realistic at all. Claim they are wrong too much. Claim other things. But the ignoring of real success and saying it isn't real? Just bias. Plain and simple.
    6 points
  50. Also, the fact that the current FO had to do so much work to rebuild the pitching staff is a strike against the idea that they just inherited a sure-fire winner. Yes, they had some nice offensive players, but they weren't going to be able to build an entire staff (which they mostly had to do) AND draft their way to sustainability in two and a half years. Their first draft was 2017, which meant they had 2018, 2019, and the weird Covid year to have talent ready to contribute. I'm not sure that timeline is fair to conclude they just can't develop players. That test, IMO, is still to be decided. I'm disappointed with their decisions this year, but I'm intrigued by what is sitting in AA and AAA right now. I'd prefer to make next year a major test and 2023 is make or break. They've earned some leash with the work they've done and the potential they have fostered, but it's much more tenuous now than it was at this time a year ago. Even circling the idea that they rode Ryan's coattails to gimme postseason berths and a 100+ win team is really an unfair argument against them.
    6 points
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