Jump to content
  • Create Account

Leaderboard

  1. Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel

    Old-Timey Member


    • Points

      17

    • Posts

      33,367


  2. Squirrel

    Squirrel

    Community Moderator


    • Points

      14

    • Posts

      27,198


  3. Seth Stohs

    Seth Stohs

    Owner


    • Points

      14

    • Posts

      22,942


  4. bean5302

    bean5302

    Verified Member


    • Points

      14

    • Posts

      697


Popular Content

Showing content with the highest reputation on 09/23/2021 in all areas

  1. I don't disagree with you, but think that people like this because it feels good to perceive potential greatness in a prospect who is on a hot streak. There is reason to hope that Ryan could become a #1 or #2 pitcher. I have hope for this kid and that hope makes me happy. This has been a depressing season and Ryan is helping some of us feel less disgusted. You are clearly correct from a factual perspective, but please consider that the hype may be giving him some extra confidence and he may even match the hype over time. It might also help to turn off the sound on your TV -- kind of like being at the game in person because there are no announcers. Then you don't have to listen to any hype, and if you see Ryan have a bad night then you can (if you wish) turn the sound on to hear the announcers make excuses and/or eat crow, I have watched entire games without the sound, because the announcers can be annoying,
    9 points
  2. It’s like De Ja Vu all over again. In the second series the Twins have played against the Blue Jays in a week and my second game thread introduction in a week (and this season), the Blue Jays are still in a must win situation as they are still in a dead heat with the Yankees (Yankees have +.5 game lead) for the second AL Wild Card. With the NL Wild Card race pretty much decided and the Yankees having an off day today, there is only one consequential game being played this evening. Were this the NFL, this game would be bumped to national coverage in prime time. Al Michaels and Chris Collinsworth would be in the broadcast booth, and there might be the alternate broadcast team, maybe a pair of retired players being simulcast just talking ball on their couch. Make no mistake, all eyes would be watching this game. The stakes are huge and with 10 games to go, and only one three game series head-to-head between the Blue Jays and Yankees, the Jays need a series victory against the Twins, and a win tonight would bring them even for the second AL wildcard. Alas, this is not the NFL, and there is no central broadcast. The RSNs rule the MLB broadcasts and only Twins and Blue Jays viewership areas will have traditional cable access. Fans can subscribe for out of market streaming, the diehards can find a way to watch, but would have to make a significant effort to go out of their way to put eyeballs on this game. Twins vs. Blue Jays will not get the full court press that it might get with different management. I am still rooting for the Blue Jays in the post season. They are young and exciting, and it’s easy to cheer for Vlad and our old friend Jose Berrios, but not tonight. Tonight, I’ll be rooting for our Twins as Michael Pineda takes the mound vs. Steven Matz. Lineups: TBD
    6 points
  3. Who's giving Ryan that much credit this soon? I've seen nothing overwhelming from people saying he's the next coming of Johan. Most are pretty tempered about where they think he will end up as a starting pitching contributor. And, he's just getting his feet wet and will have much to prove next season and beyond. But, for right now, he's doing well as a rookie, even starting against bad teams. So what? I don't think the hopefulness is anyone anointing him as anything. We're just happy for the wins and happy for the potential we see. I don't think he will be Johan, not even close. But I think he could be a strong contributor in years to come and that's what I want to see.
    6 points
  4. Even if Ryan's starts have been against the Cubs and Indians, what's wrong with enjoying his success? Yes, the hype has been in overdrive, but it's most likely because there's been little else to cheer about this season. Something else I like about his early success - it quiets the whiners who complained that the Twins didn't get any quality talent for Nelson Cruz.
    6 points
  5. The Joe Ryan lovefest is getting really hilarious. At this rate I'm half-expecting him to be inducted into the Twins Hall of Fame on Saturday alongside Morneau. Listening to Bremer, he's the second coming of Roger Clemens; it's hard to keep his schoolgirl-crush giddiness a secret when he's announcing a game Ryan pitches. Keep in mind he's pitched four starts against two teams, CLE and CHC, which are both bottom-5 offenses in their leagues, in the midst of a meaningless September schedule. Garbage time versus garbage offenses - Cubs looked very uninterested in playing baseball tonight, for instance. Ryan might end up being decent (my initial takeaway is that his stuff maxes out as a third or fourth starter, which isn't without value) but my god give it a little time for the scouting report to go around and let's see how he fares against a halfway decent opponent before he's anointed Johan junior.
    6 points
  6. If I go to the doctor next week and he prescribes heart medicine, I'm sending the bill directly to the Twins front office.
    6 points
  7. But does he really deserve Minor League Pitcher of the Day when he's pitching for the Twins? I guess that at this point of the season the Twins vs. Cubs might qualify as minor league ...
    5 points
  8. I know it's the Cubs, but its good to see Ryan show that he's healthy and can dominate. Some positivity in this otherwise ugly season.
    5 points
  9. Kepler must have read earlier today about our comments on why we should trade him.
    5 points
  10. Heck of a box score for Kepler and Ryan tonight! Nick Gordon continues to creep back up the OPS chart towards playable as well. His improved slash line probably adds some pressure to the front office in regard to his 40 man spot. It'll be interesting to see what they'll do. At the end of August, I would have said Gordon had almost no shot at being added.
    5 points
  11. Won't happen. Just chatted with him recently. He just met with the doctor in Minneapolis 2 weeks ago and got the ability to do more, but I don't think includes game action.
    5 points
  12. Regardless if Ryan is a 1 or a 4 (I'm guessing a 4 that pitches like a 3 often).....it looks like it might be a pretty good trade.....
    4 points
  13. Not even close. Hawk Harrelson wins that trophy by a mile, of the ones I've heard. Dick is actually above average, from the ones I've heard. I'm out of area so I listen to a lot of the other teams' broadcasters. But, I get being 'weary' of the ones you have to listen to all. the. time., but he is not the worst or most obnoxious. Listening to the Cubs announcers is no picnic either. Ugh.
    4 points
  14. On MLB.com today, they announced their 2021 schedule which will begin on October 13th. We'll try to keep updated on what is going on and which Twins players will be. Darren Wolfson tweeted that Matt Wallner will be one participant. The teams will be broken out like the below. The Twins prospects will be playing for the Scottsdale Scorpions.
    3 points
  15. Polanco. Ryan and Ober. Alcala turning it around? Jeffers getting lots of time. Despite everyone here....Kepler will put up 2 fWAR. Donaldson.
    3 points
  16. Weak, man. Get that man a B-Ref page, let him play one game!
    3 points
  17. Number 1 is the off season decisions by the FO......almost none of them were right. From Simmons (the worst Twin by fWAR this year) to the pitchers they brought in, almost all the decisions didn't work. That's a big contrast from other years.......and not at all what any system projected. Hoping this off season is much, much, better.
    3 points
  18. If you think the Joe Ryan love-fest is bad, you definitely haven't been here long enough to read some of the headlines about Griffin Jax. Now that's misplaced optimism, in my opinion. I don't think Ryan is over-hyped here. He's been nothing but solid, and in a terrible season I for one am thrilled to see what he's done. If the Twins don't have Alex Colome on the roster I think they finish a respectable 82-82, warts and all. Colome has single-handedly turned this team into a 90+ loss league-wide embarrassment. If he goes on to make the All-Star team with someone else next year, so be it. Just get this guy as far from Minnesota as possible in 2022.
    3 points
  19. I haven't read the whole thread, but I don't understand why people get so hung up on categorizing starting pitchers. I think it should be the goal to have a rotation of starters who have different strengths (with at least one lefty) to give a different look for the opposing team to deal with every game, but to try to assign a classification of ace, 2, 3, etc. is totally arbitrary and, IMHO, pointless.
    3 points
  20. 3 points
  21. I clicked Like even though I didn't like any of these outcomes. Please bring us better news next time.
    3 points
  22. ashbury

    2021 Arizona Fall League

    Yeah, just to be clear, while the AFL website finally has the schedule posted, the Rosters tab still seems to reflect 2019, unless Luke Raley and Dakota Chalmers are being brought back to the Twins organization somehow. They haven't named the players yet, so if I were in charge I'd take down the outdated website material; the Twins aren't even Salt River anymore, they're Scottsdale. Indeed the linked article is still the one dated July 21, and it's only the schedule that is new. This one is more up to date, and contains the info I was looking for: fans are welcome under whatever Covid protocols they have in place. Gonna give this some serious consideration.
    3 points
  23. Is Winder going to be healthy? It would be nice to get one of the starting pitchers who didn't get many innings some time on the mound.
    3 points
  24. Hoping Lewis is healthy enough....
    3 points
  25. Going into the offseason, I'd plan on a bullpen of: Rogers Duffey Thielbar Alcala Moran Gant (iffy on this, could easily be Garza or Farrell in his place) Free Agent Free Agent I wouldn't hesitate to drop guys left and right in favor of younger pitchers with more upside and free agent signings. I don't expect the Twins to run out and give someone Hendriks money but at least one guy should be paid May money ($7-8m per) to stabilize the pen.
    2 points
  26. From the established players, you have to like what Polanco and Garver have done at the plate. Ober is the brightest spot from the prospects who got the call. The Twins were active at the trade deadline flipping most of the talent with value they weren't going to keep or couldn't keep. Down on the farm, Miranda's huge year was a welcome surprise for somebody left off the 40 man and the Twins got some impressive performances from several pitchers. I liked what Winder, Balazovic, Canterino, Varland and Gipson-Long have done in the minors, it's just a bummer so many injuries have slowed guys down. I'm sure we'll see a couple people get their feet wet at the MLB level next year.
    2 points
  27. Thanks for your spot on comments about Colome. He needs to be GONE soon into the offseason. Not withstanding the financial cost of bringing him back-----his performance in high leverage situations---has been nothing short of Ron Davis material. Cut bait and move on.
    2 points
  28. As noted elsewhere: he's faced the same team twice already. Sure, both are poor teams with bad offenses but a) you only pitch to the guys in front of you, and b) as noted by LaTroy Hawkins last night, most pitchers hate facing the same team again right away. Both Cleveland and the Cubs should have had good scouting reports on Ryan and these hitters had already seen his stuff, so the fact that he pitched as well if not better the second time around is encouraging. I would have liked to see him get another inning, but maybe they were playing it safe after the injury scare (or maybe they're just not looking to push his pitch counts over 90 this season). Bremer isn't anywhere close to the worst, and is relatively low on the obnoxiousness scale. Where he (and LaTroy, especially) get into trouble is when they lose track of the game and go into the comedy act. You can always tell when they're reaching for the joke, which makes it inherently less funny. I thought LaTroy was really good last night when he was talking about pitching and Bremer did a good job setting him up for it when talking about Minaya's pitch repertoire and then again with Alcala. That's when that team shines and makes the game more interesting. When they're looking for things to giggle about it doesn't work as well. but Bremer is a very solid pro who generally gets it right (and corrects himself when he makes a mistake)
    2 points
  29. chpettit19

    Grading Falvey's Drafts

    Again, you're ignoring the timeline. Players from 2000 had 16 years(!) to make it to the majors and accumulate WAR in that study. Larnach has had 3, with one of those being a pandemic cancelled minor league season. That article isn't even bold enough to try to grade drafts 4 or fewer years removed. They waited a minimum of 6 to start looking at things. That's the point. I can appreciate you not liking the Twins draft strategy, and agree that they have boxed themselves in with guys like Sabato and Rooker who are bat only (I never liked the Rooker pick), but giving the FO F's on Cavaco and Sabato especially is outlandish to me. Sabato is putting up Sano type lines now. If he has a Sano type career that's a win for the FO. Your post was meant to grade the FO for their drafts, but you just can't do that at this point. I mean you've written Larnach off after his first taste of the bigs when he was called up before he was ready. I can't even imagine how badly you'd shred the Giants for the Joey Bart pick at #2 in 2018. Or Alec Bohm at #3. The league found a hole in Larnach's swing and beat it to death. That's the game. Now he needs to close it and come back next year having made an adjustment. His college and minor league performances suggest he'll make an adjustment and come back at some point next year and have made an adjustment. We'll see. To me, there simply isn't enough data to provide the grades you are. It's ignoring the reality of the baseball draft and prospect development. It's really just you saying you don't agree with their "get possible difference making bats early" strategy. And that's totally cool. But it's nothing more than that. And that's totally cool, too. I appreciate the work that went into pulling this all together, and the back and forth on it, but this exercise is super premature. You simply can't judge these things this quickly.
    2 points
  30. I think our batting order let us down and in some real key situations and while they're not the biggest problem the first half of the season we constantly wrote about leaving runners in scoring position and the lack of hitting in key situations. Sano looks good right now but half the season he was absent, Larnach looked great but once he was challenged by Major League pitching he didn't know what to do and obviously our coaches didn't know how to help him. Simmons is not as good as his Fielding rating and his hitting is horrible. Arraez it's supposed to challenge for the batting title. He hasn't and he has had some prolonged hitless periods. Kepler should not have batted lead off for second for all the games that the manager wanted him on top of the lineup. I am finding myself less and less enamored with the manager and the lead coaches. Too many things happened that I expected them to begin to fix, but it never happened. I certainly don't like pulling the pitchers as early as they have the starting pitchers going deeper helps a bullpen that is struggling.
    2 points
  31. I like the list, although I feel that Blazovic should probably get some rest. He looked like he was starting to run out of gas near the end of the season, but otherwise the rest all seem like legitimate candidates depending on their health.
    2 points
  32. I would say very poor bullpen early played a huge role. So many games were lost early in the season with late inning blow ups. I put little stock in complaining about injuries, every team deals with them. Yes, going through like 10 OF options is not common so the fact so many injuries happened in one position does tax the depth a ton. The pitching injuries you always expect and need to have the depth, we did not have that depth. It is hard to point to any one or even three things that blew up the season because it was different things at different times.
    2 points
  33. This is exactly the pitching model the Twins should pursue in 2022 and probably 2023. Namely, a five - six inning start of less than four runs by a controllable, league minimum or there abouts starter followed by a shut down pen (Colome not withstanding). It’s a good strategy for a mid market team in the modern game. We probably have at least four starters on the roster or on the system that fit that description. Who knows, one or two could even develop into a solid 6-7 inning #2 or #3 (ideally Ober and Ryan become that). We might even already have 3-4 relievers that could be part of that pen. The pen is the key.
    2 points
  34. It's also his second time facing them. Easier to fool them the first time.
    2 points
  35. 2006. When an 83 win team benefited from the tyranny of small sample size we call the Playoffs.
    2 points
  36. Quite a few, you should go look back at how many deep playoff runs were made with some fourth starter going on a bender for two weeks. Or a bullpen that suddenly couldn't be touched. This is a myth we tell ourselves to avoid accepting how random playoff baseball really is.
    2 points
  37. Definitely some guys like that I'd be looking at, including Winder if he's healthy. My wish list I posted elsewhere a few weeks ago was the following, and includes a few of those types: Pitchers: Jordan Balazovic Simeon Woods Richardson Jhoan Duran Matt Canterino Chris Vallimont Sawyer Gipson-Long Hitters: Austin Martin Matt Wallner (confirmed) Spencer Steer Trey Cabbage Mark Contreras Aaron Sabato Alerick Soularie Edouard Julien However, it is worth noting that usually teams only get a starting pitcher role for 1 guy, then bullpen spots for any others (even if they are a starter). A SP might end up with about 20+ innings total pitched, bullpen guys might get 10+.
    2 points
  38. Highly doubtful. Not a situation I'd want him there for if he was, anyway. He is only like 6 months post-surgery.
    2 points
  39. Hard to project which players MIGHT be on the roster. It's not always just the top prospects. It sometimes is just a place for players to make up for lost time. Matt Wallner fits both categories. First-round pick, a prospect and missed about 2 months with the broken hamate. To some degree, the idea with hitters is the same as pitchers. They want to get innings but also want to shut guys down sometimes. I think if Winder can pitch, he would make sense for 25 more innings. Same with Sands. I don't think Balazovic needs more innings, but it would probably be good for Simeon Woods Richardson. Maybe a Kody Funderburk type. With relievers, it's almost impossible to guess. If they get a catcher, my vote would go to Alex Isola, because he can also play first and he had a really nice season. David Banuelos could too because of his defense and because he didn't get a lot of at bats. Maybe getting 25-30 more would be good. I'd be surprised if Austin Martin goes. DaShawn Keirsey missed a lot of time and can play CF. Do they want more ABs for guys like Julien, Steer, or even a Michael Helman? Sabato's on the Instructs roster, but maybe he's a candidate.
    2 points
  40. Yeah, they always announce the schedule and the team compositions a couple of days before they announce the rosters. I would guess we'll hear by the end of the week.
    2 points
  41. chpettit19

    Grading Falvey's Drafts

    Ok, give Larnach 0.2 WAR. He's still outdone what 93% of that entire class will do for their entire careers. How does that earn him a C? In the schools I went to being in the top 93% was an A. That's my problem. You're not using historical data and are crushing, or at least downgrading, picks that have either done better than you're giving them credit for or haven't had nearly enough time to make any kind of reasonable assessment of. Your expectations just aren't in line with MLB draft reality. Moral of this story is 4 years isn't enough time to grade a draft pick, let alone less than a season.
    2 points
  42. Classless and clueless is in the eye of the beholder. AL East opponents of the Jays might say it is classless to pinch hit a career minor leaguer in the ninth inning, for instance. I was initially puzzled by the lack of game action, but the timing worked against Maggi (as can probably said every step of his career); he could have been a pinch hitter instead of Tortuga yesterday, with different luck. Maggi understands where he is in the team depth chart, even with Simmons underperforming, so that when the bona fide major leaguers come back he goes down. Snubbing Simmons this late in the season might be viewed as classless and clueless, from other vantage points. The point being that Rocco and the FO deal with variables that we may not fully be privy to. Crossing fingers Maggi gets another callup when we're playing the non-contenders.
    2 points
  43. I am okay with mumbling and blabbering, so long as it is interesting. One moment while i turn it on...
    1 point
  44. Assigning a 1-5 number to a starter is not a stat. It's an arbitrary label that has no empirical statistical basis.
    1 point
  45. In a night where both Joe Ryan and Max Kepler shined, Alex Colome almost ruined it all, but he came up with a big strikeout when he needed it and the Minnesota Twins hung on to beat the Chicago Cubs by a score of 5-4. Box Score Starting Pitcher: Ryan 5 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 11 K Homeruns: Kepler 2 (19) Top 3 WPA: Kepler (0.326), Alcala (0.091), Ryan (0.088) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Joe Ryan Strikes Out Career High 11 Hitters In his first start since being struck by a comebacker last week, Joe Ryan showed that he is just fine as he struck out a career-high 11 Cubs in just five innings of work in tonight’s ballgame. While Joe Ryan has looked impressive in each of his first three starts, his strikeout potential was not on full display, as the most he struck out in any of those starts was just five. Joe Ryan got the night started strong, when he struck out the top of the Cubs order on just 13 pitches in the first. A leadoff walk, followed by a double from Cubs left fielder Ian Happ set up the Cubs lone scoring opportunity off Ryan in the second, which they capitalized on with a one out single from Nico Horner later in the inning. After the second, Joe Ryan was in control, as he allowed just one more base runner the rest of his outing. In fact, only two more Cubs hitters would even put the ball in play against Ryan in his final three innings of work, as he ended the night by striking out eight of the final nine batters that he faced. Max Kepler Schools the Professor With both Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco getting the night off (at-least from the starting lineup), Max Kepler picked up the slack, as he tee off on Cubs starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks (AKA “The Professor), and provided all the offense the Twins would need in this game. In the top of the first, after two quick outs, Josh Donaldson got a little two out rally started when he laced a ground ball single up the middle. Max Kepler capitalized on that opportunity when he drilled a 2-0 fastball into the basket in right to give the Twins the early 2-0 lead. With the game tied at two runs a piece in the fourth, Max Kepler worked a full-count with one out before giving the Twins back the lead when he blasted his second home run of the night off of Kyle Hendricks. With two outs, and the Twins still leading 3-2, Max Kepler got his third opportunity vs Kyle Hendricks, and gave it his best attempt to Trevor Bauer him, but his bid for a third straight home run came up just short, as it hit off the wall in center for a two-out double. Miguel Sano would follow that up with a single that drove in Kepler from second to give the Twins the two-run lead. Twins Bullpen Shines… For the Most Part After Joe Ryan’s impressive five innings of work, the task of closing out the victory was left in the hands of the Twins bullpen. Juan Minaya was the first pitcher called out of the Twins pen to work the sixth. After giving up a leadoff single, Minaya was able to work out of it by getting Frank Schwindel to ground out, before striking out both Patrick Wisdom and Ian Happ to end the inning. It was Tyler Duffey’s turn to work the seventh, and he picked up right where the other two Twins pitchers before him left off, as Duffey struck out each of the first two batters that he faced before getting Nico Hoerner to fly out to center to set the Cubs down 1-2-3 four the fourth time of the night. We got more of the same from Jorge Alcala in the bottom of the eighth, as he worked yet another 1-2-3 inning, as he got Trayce Thompson and David Bote out on strikes before Rafael Ortega laced a line drive down the right-field line that was chased down by Max Kepler to end the inning. We got another dose of the Alex Colome experience in the ninth. With the Twins lead now at three, Colome needed every bit of that lead to secure the Twins win. After already surrendering two runs in the inning, the Cubs had the trying and winning runs both in scoring position and two outs, but unlike many nights before, Colome got the clutch out when he needed it, as he struck out Trayce Thompson to end the ballgame. Bullpen Usage Report FRI SAT SUN TUE WED TOT Barraclough 0 32 0 35 0 67 Vincent 0 0 40 0 0 40 Thielbar 0 0 22 16 0 38 Minaya 0 0 36 0 13 49 Moran 0 34 0 0 0 34 Farrell 0 0 34 0 0 34 Duffey 16 0 0 11 12 39 Alcalá 13 0 0 10 10 33 Colomé 14 0 0 7 24 45 Garza Jr. 0 17 0 0 0 17 Coulombe 0 0 0 17 0 17 What's Next? The Twins return home on Thursday to begin a four-game weekend series with the Toronto Blue Jays. First pitch of Thursday night's game with be at 6:40 pm CDT, with the Twins throwing Michale Pineda against left-hander Steven Matz. Post Game Interviews View full article
    1 point
  46. jmlease1

    Grading Falvey's Drafts

    Well, some of this context has already been done at places like Baseball America and FanGraphs; didn't take hours to track it down, more like 10 minutes. But you're putting forward the analysis of the front office's draft ability, so it's fair game if you've missed something important, and I think you have. But the biggest problem with this as a blog post for me is that the thesis feels incoherent. Almost everything you're presenting is highly critical of the front office's draft results and strategy...but then you tell us that the final grade is still ok and you're not calling for them to be fired like an Uber driver. If you believe that their strategy is wrong, that they're making a lot of mistakes, and that their drafts are not panning out and should have better results by now, then stick with it. Don't cop out and tell me a "C" grade is ok; tell me why you're right to give them what will be perceived as a pretty crummy grade.
    1 point
  47. Dodgers fans were not confident. His legacy has been tarnished by it. You can find a lot of articles like this: https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/10/29/18039728/clayton-kershaw-los-angeles-dodgers-world-series-failures I'll restate my thesis: we make too much of "aces" in the playoffs.
    1 point
  48. I will say that Maggi is still on the 40-man roster and that there are still three series remaining. Any of Arraez, Donaldson, Simmons, or Sano could be shut down for that last week. It wouldn't surprise me if Maggi got another chance in the the final two series. Baldelli played to win against someone contending for a playoff spot, as he should have.
    1 point
  49. Just a few thoughts from the analysis (great work and thought put into it)... 1.) They have been Sean Johnson's drafts. He is the scouting director and responsible for drafting. Falvey provides a framework and some of the thought process. He has encouraged the scouting department to work with the player development and communicate between the departments. 2.) The Twins don't and shouldn't care what any other rating system puts for their rankings. They should trust their scouts and evaluators (dozens) over 2-4 people at sites like MLB.com, Baseball America or any other site think. 3.) The two "Huge Reach" guys with some playing time (Jeffers and Steer) sure look like good picks ot this point. 4.) Injuries are always a factor, unfortunately. It will be good to look at this analysis in 3-4 more years when we'll know a lot more about all of these players.
    1 point
This leaderboard is set to Chicago/GMT-05:00
×
×
  • Create New...