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    Brock Beauchamp

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Showing content with the highest reputation since 06/24/2021 in Blog Comments

  1. Damn, this is some outstanding work. Well done.
    5 points
  2. I say the Twins take a chance and actually give us the ANSWER to this question. Jettison/trade Pineda and Happ and put Barnes and Winder in the rotation with Berrios, Maeda and Ober. Dobnak and Thorpe are your AAA depth when they come back from injury. Move on from Robles (trade), Colome (trade or DFA) and Theilbar or Coloumbe (trade) and call up Hamilton, Vazquez and Cano. Pitch the starters every 5th day and use the relievers like real relievers in 6th and 7th inning situations. When inevitable 10 day IL stints occur, hope that one or more of the presently injured or AA guys like Sands, Duran, Caterino or Moran can fill in. Let's be Darwinian - may be the best guys win! My guess is that Winder will show enough to be penciled into the 2022 rotation along with Ober, but Barnes will be more of a 6th starter/long man/ AAAA guy. In the bullpen, Hamilton and Cano will be middle relief arms next year and Vasquez will be another long man/AAAA guy. But what do I know? Let's settle this in the arena!
    4 points
  3. I don’t think of several of these guys as Twins ‘left fielders’. Turns out, for good reason. I went back and checked...Shane Mack and Larry Hisle, neither put in more than one season where they played LF in even half of the games. They both moved all over the outfield (they both had big-time arm-strength issues)...and put in time at DH. Meanwhile, Bostock played considerably more CF and RF than LF for the Twins. So, to me it comes down to Allison, Rosario, and Gladden (Stewart was good for 2 seasons) Bob Allison was pretty clearly the best player in this list, offensively and defensively. Gladden gets consideration for the 800+ OPS across two WS wins. He’d be my number 2.
    4 points
  4. While I'm not ready for a rebuild, these are the types of heavy returns which the Twins would need to have if they choose to start over. I'm also of the mind to push San Diego for C. J. Abrams.
    3 points
  5. As a long time forum resident/owner, I've lost track of how many Joe Bensons there have been over the past 20 years (ie. players that were released to great internet outrage, only to amount to absolutely nothing in MLB, if they ever even got there).
    3 points
  6. Wow, great work. Goes to show that the vast majority of the time, waiver moves - whether pick ups or losing players - rarely matter in the grand scheme. We - myself included - sometimes get a little irritated when the Twins drop someone like a Chalmers or Blankenhorn, but this high suggests that doing so will almost never have any consequences despite their perceived upside.
    3 points
  7. Either trade would be pretty good...even though I'm not overly eager to trade Berrios/Rogers. As a Twins fan #1 and a Dodgers fan #2 I would be O.K. with the Dodgers deal. Berrios is durable and dependable. May is coming back from Tommy John surgery. And Rogers gives the Dodgers a dependable LH arm out of the bullpen who could possibly close in 2022. However, even though the trade adds up in San Diego's favor, I like Hassell and Weathers. THAT would be a trade that (I can't believe I'm saying this) would be HAPPY with. Weathers is just 21. Hassell is just 19. These are guys you can build around for years. The other two are good filler with "potential." I'd make this trade.
    3 points
  8. Rogers’ fate should be tied to the fates of Berríos and Buxton. If one goes, all three should go. Maximize your return or try to compete in 2022.
    3 points
  9. I'm hoping the plan is a re-tool, but still with some major changes. You've laid the basic premise out nicely Mike8791. I'm going to go with the easy stuff first: Cut bait on Sano. Either move him at the trade deadline for a bag of baseballs (for salary relief) or simply buy him out for $2.75 million at seasons end and be done with him. Look for takers on Max Kepler. I don't think Max will ever get back to his 2019 form. I wonder how much of a mirage that was for a LOT of our players. But he is still a very good defensive RF'er. He has value and should be moved to a team looking for OF help. I would leave our catching personnel alone. Jeffers and Rortvedt are struggling offensively but should improve. Garver can be used as a catcher/1B/DH type of bat. I'm not averse to moving Donaldson for the right package. Arraez can hold down 3B and/or Miranda. Cruz COULD be dealt for the right package but I'd be O.K. if we kept him. It depends what teams would be willing to part with. I'd be happy to keep Nellie for another year. With Donaldson, Sano and Kepler gone that would be about $40-$45 million freed up. Some of that would be used to re-sign Berrios and Buxton. The rest, to plug holes. And there are plenty of holes. I don't think Simmons is back with the Twins next year. I don't think Lewis will be a SS in the future and with him missing the entire season this year he can't be counted on for anything until late next season at the best. This means serious money needs to be allocated for a long-term SS. I see Story and Baez as targets. Polanco belongs at 2B. If this team hopes to be relevant the next 2-3 years they need a SS !! One other point: I've finally, after a lot of musing, decided that between Berrios and Buxton if I keep one and part ways with the other, would keep Berrios. PITCHING is what will make the Twins a playoff-competitive team. it ALWAYS is. Look back on Twins history. In 1962-63 they pitched and finished 2nd & 3rd to the Yankees. In 1964 they had GREAT hitting, but didn't pitch well and finished 7th ! In 1965 they pitched and won the A.L. Pennant despite missing Killebrew for half the season. In 1966 & 1967 they pitched and were runner-ups. In 1969 & 1970 their pitching was good and they won the division. Fast forward to last year. They won the division because they pitched much better than they hit. We will NOT be better next year, if, as a team that has pitching issues, we trade Berrios or Rogers. We could possibly be better without Pineda but NOT without Berrios. In the entire time Buxton has been a Twin it seems like he's played in half the games. We've learned how to play without him and still be good. Are we better WITH him ?? Clearly, we are. But if I'm going to make a blockbuster and get an insane return of value for a player, I part with Buxton (who was playing like an A.L. MVP). We do NOT trade Buxton for anything less than an insane return. Someone either blows us away, or we give him a 3-year $80 million dollar contract and see what the next 3-years turns out to be. If we DO deal Buxton, acquire someone like Kevin Kiermaier to play CF if you don't think Celestino will work out. And you still have Lewis (who I think will end up in CF). There has been more disappointment/failure with this front office than successes. I must admit, I'm not very confident they can turn things around. The White Sox are crushing the division (as was predicted) despite losing Robert and Jimenez for the entire season to date. And the White Sox has some young pitchers who are impressive. Cleveland can flat out pitch. The Tigers have some very impressive young arms. This FO has to figure this out or we're looking at another decade of mediocrity. Time will tell.
    3 points
  10. By the way, some of you may have noticed your achievements aren't appearing yet... that's because I didn't realize the system needed to rebuild ALL 1.1 MILLION POSTS AND ARTICLES before they'd appear. So yeah, gonna be a few hours before the system can process all those pieces of content. At the very latest, all of this should be wrapped up by the afternoon of July 4th.
    3 points
  11. "In April, this club seemed to be dealt a good amount of bad luck" That is a very generous way to assess the 1st 24 games of the season. For whatever reason Rocco/FO was obsessed with deeming Colome as our closer. This didn't have to be the decision. It should have been Rogers job to lose. For whatever reason, it was Colome's job to lose, and he should have lost it at least 2 weeks before he did. Our best starter in March wasn't given a starting job (the Dobber) - but they gave the 5th spot to Shoemaker. The rest is history, Shoemaker stunk, and Dobs never helped us and is now wrecked. For whatever reason we decided that our best leadoff hitter, and our best contact guy (Arraez) would NOT be given a starting position on the field. This led to spending 10M on a shortstop - so, instead of signing a 12M starting pitcher, we signed a 2M starting pitcher. This also led to the ever changing by the day line up, and led to a very decent 2b man having to be a very average to poor LF'er. And of course going back to the prior year, we tried to land a stud pitcher, we could not, so we jumped at adding Donaldson, which moved Sano to 1st - now blocking both Kirilloff (not anymore), and now blocking Miranda - and putting a 24M hole in our pitching budget. The proof of these personnel mistakes is here. We'd love to trade both Simmons and Donaldson. Proof we blew the roster construction game. Would we have been much better off this year with Arraez at leadoff every game and playing 2b - former all-star ss Polanco at short - Sano was a 3b until a couple weeks ago, now Miranda is playing there - Kirilloff now manning 1b daily. Just a shame really - not to mention the LF difficulty's we wouldn't have if Lamont Wade and/or Eddie Rosario were still here. Personnel roster blunders, and managerial mistakes are everywhere. We made our own bad luck Ted.
    2 points
  12. 2 points
  13. I live in LA and I do think the Dodgers are in an interesting position with Baauer‘s future completely up in the air. I could see them trading for Berrios but I think they would have a hard time giving up Dustin May. What do you think about taking that same deal, have the Twins give up Berrios but not Rogers, and getting back Tony Gonsolin, Pepiot and Gavin Lux? Two pitchers and a SS?
    2 points
  14. Jovani Moran and Josh Winder are definitely the closest to MLB ready, in my estimation, and also are pretty much the only two who are healthy at this point (sounds like Winder is going to be ok after taking a ball off the neck in his last start). I'm pretty high on both, but we probably won't see extended looks at either until next summer.
    2 points
  15. h2oface

    Falvine's Waiver Claim Game

    Thanks for this. Awesome stuff.
    2 points
  16. I'm all for it. We’re going nowhere with Happ and possibly Pineda. I think you’re right in that we can’t know who the pitching equivalents of Larnach and Kirilloff are unless we give them a chance. Some really intriguing relievers too!
    2 points
  17. This very thorough look at the retool scenario certainly dampens my enthusiasm for it.
    2 points
  18. You consider trading them because you don’t believe the Twins can compete in 2022 and both players are free agents after that season. If you can’t compete in 2022, it’d be downright foolish *not* to trade them, frankly.
    2 points
  19. Good list! Personally, I would move Julien to ~20. Should be some interesting discussions when deciding who to add to the 40 man. It looks like there are at least 5 that NEED to be added.
    2 points
  20. Harmon Killebrew. He was the everyday LF from’62-64. Played in 470 games as Twins starting LF. Allison started 472. Harmon averaged 47 hr’s as LF. Of those listed, only Rosario and Allison played more LF.
    2 points
  21. This 2021 team struggles in high-leverage situations, and that was certainly true in Rocco's playoff appearances as well. And that's troubling, because it signals something that, to me, seems to be the primary value of a big league coach: getting players mentally and physically ready to excel in tense game situations. I don't quite know what the best managers do, though. I don't know if they run drills that the Twins don't. I don't know if they take a more active role in interpersonal dynamics in the clubhouse. I don't know if they create an environment where every player is clear on his role and expectations for his play. Whatever it is, Rocco doesn't have it, He comes across as a nice guy, but also very weak and indecisive. And he's been given a good chance here, but his teams have fallen short of expectations. I know it's an unpopular opinion, but with a youth movement on the way, in 2022 I'd bring in a manager with more seasoning and more experience with playoff success (either as a player or a coach). In fact, I'd fire Rocco this August, just to send a message that the team's play this season is unacceptable.
    1 point
  22. I think you are being too charitable to this FO. They've made many bad moves where they simply misjudged the talent they had, misjudged talent they were getting back, or misjudged how other teams measured talent.
    1 point
  23. So from what I can tell, if you take out the stats against Tanana, Kusick’s .235/.342/.392 goes to .230/.334/<=.382. I didn’t track down all of his at bats, so I treated the 12 non-homers as singles. If some of them were extra bases, his slugging percentage is even lower. I’ve never looked at this, but it has to be pretty rare for someone with that many plate appearances to have their stats affected in such a positive way by hitting against a particular pitcher, particularly a good one like Tanana.
    1 point
  24. In some ways it's hard to accept but Baldelli has earned a shot to turn this around in 2022. His lah-dee-dah approach to the horrors of the current season can be infuriating, but two division titles carry weight. That said, he's on a short leash next season. Falvey and Levine are also under scrutiny. This year's club wasn't "dealt bad luck"--it was instead plagued with horrible personnel decisions, starting with the worthless Colome and the other bullpen additions. There had better be a top to bottom analysis of the Twins scouting/player evaluation process, and an inquiry into whether analytics are compromising us at the expense of actual, in person talent evaluation. (Question: how did the White Sox know Liam Hendricks was the guy, and not MLB's worst pitcher Colome?). Also: the Mets signing May for two years at $15M was a no brainer--where were we on that blind spot? There are at least a half-dozen top tier shortstops in the coming free agent pool; the Twins damn well better pay for oe of them to start turning this around.
    1 point
  25. I do think that "wait and see" is the right approach with Rocco. I do think that he sometimes gets a little to lost in the analytics and loses the human side of performance. Even if a particular pitching matchup is the right thing statistically, it may not be the right thing on that day for that player, and a manager needs to see and understand that before making a decision, I do think he needs a strong, experienced bench coach to help him. The biggest problem with this team is that the players who were supposed to be the core group at this point have mostly failed except for Polanco and Berrios and even they aren't leading lights. The middle of the batting order by this point was supposed to include Sano, Kepler, Buxton, Garver and Polanco. Sano is almost unplayable, Kepler can't hit and looks like he will never be more than a good fielding OF who should hit no higher than 7th (and maybe be the 4th OF), Garver is injured and inconsistent, and Buxton can't stay healthy. Polanco looks like a leadoff or #6 hitter. On the pitching side, Berrios hasn't taken that step to be a #1 ( I would argue that he's a solid #2/strong #3), Maeda is a mystery, and the bullpen never really developed past Rogers. It's hard to blame the manager for these failings.
    1 point
  26. This makes the most sense to me. 1 Above avg. starter added to Berrios and hopefully a healthy Maeda and a couple rookies stepping up could make a rotation. Then its the pen the needs a rebuild around Rogers.
    1 point
  27. Kudos Tim! Of all the trade proposals on TD, these sound like win-wins. Frankly, in my own blog(retool or rebuild), I was opposed to trading any premier pitching talent, as that is obviously our biggest weakness and by doing so, you can pretty much forget contending in the next year or two. But my faith in Falvine's acumen in retooling on the fly for next season has been badly shaken. It doesn't help we have an ownership that has never demonstrated a desire to take risks by providing more $ for top trade pieces or FA, and the FO's failures(to date) in spotting undervalued talent, so it very well might be a better idea to pass on 2022 contention if near-major league talent becomes available. But either of these two trades would likely bring back young, controlled pitching. I love May and Weathers. If the FO decides(soon I hope) that Berrios cannot be resigned, then trading to one of these two win-now teams would provide a much-needed boost to the Twins future rotation. I find it hard to believe after their splurge this past offseason that either team is in need of pitching, but you nicely state this strange turn of events and why they might bite. I doubt the Pods or LA would give up that much talent but if so, I would jump on it! Chances of either of these deals happening <5%. I just don't believe Falvey has the guts to do it, even if he could get such a return.
    1 point
  28. We are losing now, and even if they return, I expect this team to lose next year too unless the entire pitching staff is gutted and the FO is able to rebuild it completely in ONE offseason. That will cost alot of money. If this team is bad again next year it just pushes the entire process back another season. This is going to happen one way or another in the next 1.5 years, so do it now. If the FO tries to patch this thing together the same way they have in the past and it fails again...you will have one pissed off fan base. Ohh, and the team defense needs an overhaul too.
    1 point
  29. I would say no to either deal. I'm not in the total rebuild camp and thats what these trades are. Another 2-3 years of bad teams waiting for young pitchers to advance with no experienced #1 to show them the way sounds like long losing summers.
    1 point
  30. I remember being torn up by Josmil Pinto . Sometimes the only hope to cling on to is a player's 99th percentile outcome, especially in the rebuilding years. But if a player is exposed to waivers, the front office is usually confident that even their 80th percentile won't come back to bite them too hard.
    1 point
  31. Whitey333

    The Grand "Re-Tool" Experiment

    Wow. Excellent article and great comments by all. The biggest take away I get from this is the next couple of years for the Twins seems very bleak no matter which way they go. They dug themselves a deep hole by signing bargain basement pitchers that are washed up. That's the Twins way. Until that philosophy changed I don't see us being contenders but pretenders.
    1 point
  32. That also surprised me in your blog entry. I took a moment to go "wait wut".
    1 point
  33. While researching this, I was flabbergasted to see Winder’s ERA all the way up to 3.5 with apparently only 2 IP. After some digging-- mostly in very recent articles on TD and a post on Twitter, I was mostly reassured that he escaped largely unscathed!
    1 point
  34. Tim

    The Grand "Re-Tool" Experiment

    I think the Twins absolutely know where they stand with both Berrios and Buxton right now. Think of it from the players perspective. If im Berrios why would I sign an extension right now? I'm having a career year, I can hit the open market in a season and a half, and might even get better between that period. If im Buxton, I was on pace for an MVP prior to getting hurt, what if I stay healthy all of next year and win an mvp... There's also the case he wants completely out because of the service time manipulation a few years ago.. They've both bet on themselves to this point, why settle now?
    1 point
  35. GNess

    The Grand "Re-Tool" Experiment

    Wow - well done with this comprehensive breakdown of a re-tool scenario. I may be seeing things in a cloudy, subjective manner, but the Twins have just enough good players to think in terms of a re-tool and be competitive in 2022. If the Twins can: 1. Hold on to the following core guys: Kirilloff, Larnach, Buxton, Arraez, Polanco, Jeffers/Garver, Maeda, Berrios and Alcala. 2. Get some help internally from the system and leftover (non-core) current players. 3. Trade some of the assets from this year's squad for a few meaningful players. 4. Sign some decent, proven ML starters / relievers like many teams do. They can be a .500+ team in 2022... Yes, Buxton and Berrios may well walk, but the Twins can make a run at them. Plus, that's an issue for 2023...
    1 point
  36. This is a feature, not a bug. This is how most of the top bullpens work these days. The best pitcher is the 7/8 inning guy who faces the highest leverage or best hitters in the lineup, while the second best pitcher is generally put in for a clean 9th when the 6, 7, 8 batters are due up and ahead by 2 runs. BTW, is Rocco is nickname? That's the first time I've seen quotations used in reference to him.
    1 point
  37. I understand where you're coming from, but disagree on the premise. Often times the highest leverage isn't in the 9th inning. That's why saves are a dumb statistic. You could be "closing" the game at any point from the 6th on. Colome has gone belly up on his career norms, and Robles has been about as expected. Duffey taking a step back has really hurt. More to the point, I don't care if Rogers pitches the 9th, but if you're moving him it better be for a haul because fixing the bullpen is much more difficult when also now needing to replace one of the best arms in baseball.
    1 point
  38. Pro tip: never listen to Chief.
    1 point
  39. Too early to label the FO a failure. There's enough there to retool, especially with position players. I'm not convinced there is with pitching, but that's another discussion. What to do with Polanco is a question in and of itself though. Assuming that Donaldson, Simmons and even Sano (doubtful) are all dealt, is there enough infield depth to replace an entire infield? Obviously, something that can help would need to come back in a deal somewhere. I like Polanco (at 2B, not SS), but I'm not opposed to dealing him because I do think he has decent value. Tearing down an entire infield feels more like a rebuild rather than a retool though. Regarding Buxton and Berrios, this question will hang over this team until they're either extended or gone. However, it's an important one to answer to determine the direction of the team long term. If they're both gone, the team has further to go to reach serious contender status. There's already too much to do on the pitching side.
    1 point
  40. Fun times! Thanks, Brock!
    1 point
  41. Dan Gladden was the LF on 2 World Series Winning teams. hard not to include him in the conversation.
    1 point
  42. Dman

    A Shout Out to La Tortuga

    I like the Turtle but was hoping the Twins could create some value for him by the deadline so they can get something in trade for him. I like the three catchers the Twins have in front of him in Garver, Rortvedt, and Jeffers. I like Gordon better in the utility role. I think this is the Turtles last year in Minnesota. I still think he a fringe MLB baseball player but I am sure others might disagree. His numbers to start the year were good but he has been slumping for a while now and I believe that is why he was sent down.
    1 point
  43. I also see 5 - 6 to be protected. Though 5 seems to me the number most of us can agree on. Nice list. As stated above Moran is an interesting case. Do not know where he ranks. A few other pitchers doing well like Vallimont, what is his position and does he need to be protected. One grip I have with the FO is that they gave up on some pitchers too soon, and some of them are doing well. (Wells for example).
    1 point
  44. I'm curious, Is Moran considered a prospect or not. His results seem pretty good compared to some on the list.
    1 point
  45. Nice list. I really like the bite-sized snippets and length of the list to catch up on these guys mid-season. A tip, though… if you include a feature image on each blog post, you’re more likely to get clicks from users browsing the site. The featured image field is just below the content field on the editing page, I believe.
    1 point
  46. Yep. Bostock is my sentimental favorite as well. He played 60 games in LF in his banner 1977 season, one of the best offensive seasons in Twins history. His two full seasons were .323 and .336 with mega extra base hits. I wish Calvin had not been so penurious and I wish he had lived. I think he was so talented that he would have likely been a Hall of Famer. I’m a big time Lyman Bostock fan and a huge fan of that 1977 team. I have a memory of the first time I saw Bostock play with the Twins, in person, probably in Detroit - he hit a scorching liner down the third base line between the third baseman and the bag. I think it was the first at bat I ever saw him in person and I was stunned, thinking or saying, "Wow!".
    1 point
  47. One of my favorite catches in Twins history is the one that Allison made in the 1965 World Series.
    1 point
  48. I think Allison is the right choice although Bostock was brilliant, hitting .323 and .336 in his last two years with the Twins with something like 36 doubles, 12 triples and 14 HR in 1977 alone!
    1 point
  49. With Buxton and Kepler due back and Gordon showing (so far) he can handle MLB pitching, and Garver due back in July, I would for sure entertain offers for Cruz and Simmons. I don't think Sano will draw any interest, but DFAing him should also be considered. The everyday line-up could look something like this: C - Jeffers, 1B - Kirilloff, 2B - Arraez, SS - Polanco, 3B - Donaldson, LF - Larnach, CF - Buxton, RF - Kepler, DH - Garver. Bench players would be Gordon, Astudillo, Refsnyder, and take your pick of Garlick/Rooker/Riddle or whoever may have been acquired in one of the trades.
    1 point
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