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Showing content with the highest reputation since 12/05/2020 in Blog Comments

  1. Good work. Another thing to consider is league batting averages have declined significantly too. JD's line drive rate was down and flyball rate up. Still, an OPS+ of 127 was higher than Polanco (125) even. JD at 3B-DH for the Twins next year is not a problem that needs fixing.
    8 points
  2. Sorry, but even if Ryan turns out to be at least a serviceable starter (or better) AND if the Rays win the championship, no, the Twins didn't "fleece" the Rays. Not only is it too early to tell if Ryan will be good, it is also to early to determine if the price TB paid for Cruz was worth it, as they are going for it all this year. And I ask the same question here that I ask with every trade - why does every trade have to end with a "loser" and a "winner" like the games? What's wrong if both teams get what they wanted from a trade?
    8 points
  3. Thank you for a great write up and wonderful review. Well done! What I find so interesting about this draft, which I haven't really heard anyone else talk about, is the Twins first 4 picks all came from northern climate schools. There has long been a prejudice against players from northern climate as they don't have year round opportunities to play, and those schools don't always get the same attention in recruiting from southern prospects. (Petty is a HS kid of course and wasn't a recruit). But I think recent history has begun to change that perspective. Talent is talent and if someone needs an extra half season or so to develop, so what if he's ultimately as good or better. Very happy to see 3 LH pitchers selected. I know you don't draft for need, but some solid LH arms ARE a need in the system, really excited about Hajjar and his frame. Guarantee his velocity goes up, and with a great change, I see a ton of potential. Ditto for Macleod, though with a curve and needing a change. Not sure about physical growth and velocity with Povich, but the control certainly seems to be there. He seems to have a nice assortment of pitches it's just a question how well his repertoire plays with at least a little better velocity. Is he another Barnes? Or is there more there? The bat and power of Encarnacion-strand plays. From all reports, the arm is excellent. What I care about is does he have decent feet? Does he have hands of stone, or are they pliable? His range may be limited. But with decdnt feet and a good arm I'd keep him at 3B as long as possible. Drafting 2 catchers in the top 10 with potential is always a good idea to me.
    7 points
  4. Andrew, love your article! Love your common sense backed up with unbias data. I encourage you to write as often as you can because you're a pleasure to read and to disarm any false ideas out there. This is a fair contract (the # of years could be tricky), no more fooling around. Get it done!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BTW, what has been offered?
    7 points
  5. I've commented on this several times as well. With the Marlins as a trade target, the Twins have both Garver and Jeffers who should be VERY interesting to Miami. MLB Trade values currently has Garver at 18.1 and Jeffers at 27.9. If the Twins are looking for someone like Sandy Alcantara it would take Jeffers and Larnach. I'd do that. If the Twins are willing to go for someone like former Golden Gopher Max Meyer (28.1) Jeffers in a one-for-one swap pretty much does it. If the Twins want to go BIG and ask for Meyer AND Sixto Sanchez (9.5) then a little something extra would need to be added with Jeffers. The thing is, Jeffers is a solid defensive catcher with power (14 HR's in under 300 PA's) whose younger with more years of team control. The Marlins catching situation is a disaster and one they will need to address this off season. Is Jeffers really worth more than Garver ? I don't think so either, but it depends what the Marlins think. With Rortvedt about a year away, I see the Twins dealing Jeffers and picking up a Jason Castro type for a backup. The Marlins have an embarrassment of riches with young pitching and a black hole at catcher. Larnach is just the type of young hitter a team desperate for offense should take a chance on. I'd hate to part with Larnach, been a fan ever since I saw him get clutch hit after clutch hit in leading Oregon state to an NCAA baseball title. But his value is much higher than Kepler's, so Kepler is worth more to the Twins at his currently depressed value, making Larnach available. Maybe Max figures out what he needs to do to hit better, maybe not, but the Twins can't trade guys like Kepler or Buxton when their current value is so low. I trade Jeffers to the Marlins in a package for young SP.
    7 points
  6. Mark G

    Settling in at Shortstop

    I realize I am still a minority on this subject, but since I first started truly following the game in the mid '60's, and from what I hear and read decades before that, teams prioritized defense at SS and catcher. Corner infielders, corner outfielders, and sometimes 2nd or center would produce the pop; the two most demanding positions were considered SS and catcher and offense wasn't a first priority. Teams would have .180 and .190 hitters at these positions while their pitchers hit as well. In the '60's the Twins had 2 or 3 pretty good hitting pitchers I used to see pinch hit for position players in late or extra innings, the hitters were not as good but played the field, and the pitchers wouldn't have it any other way. Now, in the AL, we have hitters who do nothing but, so teams are even more capable of keeping the gloves they need. The concept that Simmons has hurt the team is bizarre to me. A .220 hitting exceptional glove, and yes, he is still an exceptional glove, is more than acceptable on a team that is what? 2nd in the league in home nuns and middle of the pack in almost all other offensive categories? If we had a manager who knew anything about manufacturing runs.......arrgg, don't get me started. The only problem I have ever seen with Simmons is his price tag. He needs to come down, and he will after this season, but an affordable Simmons is better than moving Polanco OR taking a flyer on an unproven rookie. The infield needs stability, and constant moving parts are killing us. Keep this group together, and everyone will be more comfortable with each other. And Simmons will pick up the pace; his career record suggests this year was the anomaly, not the norm. (although I might spell Sano on the field a little more often) Don't get me wrong, if we can pick up a top tier SS on the open market, by all means. But the kind of money I see bantered about day in and day out being spent on payroll, isn't as realistic as people would like to believe after 2 straight years of huge losses, as well as a new CBA looming. Put the money into pitching, and keep the gloves behind them and where they belong, not moving around the field like musical chairs. We have enough talent to cover the flaws as we stand today; keep moving the parts and the crap shoot continues. Oh, and did I say we should put our money into pitching? If not, we should put our money into pitching.
    7 points
  7. Seth Stohs

    Grading Falvey's Drafts

    Just a few thoughts from the analysis (great work and thought put into it)... 1.) They have been Sean Johnson's drafts. He is the scouting director and responsible for drafting. Falvey provides a framework and some of the thought process. He has encouraged the scouting department to work with the player development and communicate between the departments. 2.) The Twins don't and shouldn't care what any other rating system puts for their rankings. They should trust their scouts and evaluators (dozens) over 2-4 people at sites like MLB.com, Baseball America or any other site think. 3.) The two "Huge Reach" guys with some playing time (Jeffers and Steer) sure look like good picks ot this point. 4.) Injuries are always a factor, unfortunately. It will be good to look at this analysis in 3-4 more years when we'll know a lot more about all of these players.
    7 points
  8. We all need to click Like on this blog post of Brock's so that he can keep the prize he so clearly esteems.
    7 points
  9. You make a great point. The Twins have always spent for "QUANTITY" not "QUALITY." It's like Slick Rick of the Vikings always trading back to accumulate more and more 6th and 7th rounders instead of just drafting Tyler Johnson (#3 WR spot SOLVED) when he was sitting there. I GUARANTEE the Twins, if they spend the money on bringing Max Scherzer here, he will be worth every penny !! Now I get that Max would be crazy not to just stick with the Dodgers who will pay him more and give him a better chance for a World Series ring, but that's not my point. The point is, when you spend on QUALITY you lessen the risk. The wins and innings that kind of SP/RP give you add up to tremendous value for what you spent. Honestly, I don't know why this FO doesn't understand that. I thought they were brought here to replace the antiquated thinking of the Terry Ryan regime. Maybe this is a Pohlad "thing." It's hard to understand how the Twins have never figured this out.
    7 points
  10. It's an absolutely ridiculous tweet. Makes no sense. Viola has no idea. He's had nothing to do wit with the organization for like 30 years. He's been whining about the Twins since they hired someone else to be their pitching coach (clearly a good decision). So what he says doesn't confirm anything. What's his purpose in the tweet? Who is he upset at? Falvey because he didn't hire him? Not baseball people? Falvey has been around the game for a long time. Played in college, scouted, worked in a variety of front office roles. Levine was the assistant GM of a couple of World Series teams in Texas. He's also been in a variety of roles. Rocco Baldelli has done pretty much everything in the game over the past 20+ years. The team has won. This year, the pitching and the injuries just became too much. The previous front office hadn't won for a long time either. The player development at that time was a big question mark. And, frankly, Viola was part of the 1987 and 1988 teams that won, but he was also part of the 1982-1986 teams that lost a lot of games with 'baseball people."
    7 points
  11. I like Big Mike. The Twins seem to like him, and he seems to like it here. I would welcome him back because we need consistency and stability in the rotation. He’ll rarely give you 7-8 strong innings, but he almost always gives you 5-6 good innings each outing. I think you hit the nail on the head with the contract proposal. 2/$22 with incentives based on IP. Sign me up.
    6 points
  12. Most of those players will likely remain with the team. The people most at risk of losing their 40 man spot: Simmons - obviously Cave - He’s had a tough go of things in 2020 and 2021. It’s time to find someone better, or use his spot for another prospect. Astudillo - His “positional flexibility” has been reduced to corner IF/OF spots. Rarely as a catcher anymore. I think Gordon’s performance in September gives him the edge as utility guy. Maggi - Just an honorary nomination this year for being a long time minor leaguer. He shouldn’t be considered a short or long term player on the 40 man. People that I wouldn’t be surprised if they were jettisoned from the roster or kept are Garlick, Refsnyder, and Rooker. They’re decent depth pieces.
    6 points
  13. dex8425

    Settling in at Shortstop

    Simmons will certainly be available on a one year deal again, for cheaper. He can't possibly hit worse than he did this year, right??
    6 points
  14. chpettit19

    Grading Falvey's Drafts

    Do 2/3, 1/2, 1/3 make it within 3 years of being drafted and with a missed year of minor league baseball? Because that's what you're judging Larnach by right now. My guess would be those numbers refer to their entire careers and simply making an MLB roster at some point. I mean Drew Maggi technically made it to the majors as a 15th round pick now. This just feels like you're missing a lot of context. What number of players from the 2017, 18, 19, 20, 21 drafts have made it to the majors, how many games have they played, and how are they performing? That's what you need to compare these guys to. According to a baseball america article from 2019 only about 83 guys from each draft ever accumulate even 0.1 WAR. Trevor Larnach is already at 0.5 and Jeffers is at 1.1. So with a completely lost season of development and within 3 years of being drafted those 2 are already within the top 83 players of what that entire draft class will produce on average and have basically filled the Twins quota for the 2018 draft. According to fangraphs the chances of a top 5 pick never accumulating 1.5 WAR in their career is 60%. 6-10 is 65%, 11-15 71%, 16-20 85%, 21-25 76%, and 26-30 84%. It's more likely than not that anyone drafted, even at the top of the draft will never get even 1.5 WAR. Odds of finding someone who produces over 2.5 WAR for picks 1-5 is 11%, 6-10 is 15%, 11-15 11%, 16-20 5%, 21-25 11%, 26-30 5%. Anyone picked after pick 15 has about a 5% chance of accumulating even 2.5 WAR for their entire career. I think we need to lower the expectations for what Falvey draftees should have produced by now. I mean Jeffers has already out performed his draft position within 3 years and in the middle of a pandemic, and as stated above they've already met their quota for players who reach 0.1 WAR for the 2018 draft. What more do you want?
    6 points
  15. jmlease1

    Grading Falvey's Drafts

    You're a tough grader. I don't think most fans are going to consider a C to be acceptable? I also think you're skipping an analytical component in this: signing status on the pick. We got Enlow because we were able to go above slot on him. Why did we have the resources available? Lewis was a guy we didn't have to go high on to get him to sign, and Rooker was signed below slot. but the bigger issue is you explicitly say player development is separate from drafting...but your grades seem very much tied to the player development side of things, as you evaluate these players today on their progress in the system and projection in the future. For example: Landon Leach got crushed in this analysis, but he did fine in his initial exposure to rookie ball and then got hurt/lost a season to the pandemic. (btw, he was a HS selection not a collegiate one)
    6 points
  16. I appreciate the ability to be awarded an F- in this grading. ”You were so bad, we created a new bottom rung for you to occupy.”
    6 points
  17. I may be one of the few who like Simmons for a team that wants to be respectable. He will probably win a gold glove again this year. Although his batting numbers are not good he has had many timely hits. Unless we have a major league caliber defender at shortstop for next year, I would bring him back if the price is right.
    6 points
  18. I don’t think of several of these guys as Twins ‘left fielders’. Turns out, for good reason. I went back and checked...Shane Mack and Larry Hisle, neither put in more than one season where they played LF in even half of the games. They both moved all over the outfield (they both had big-time arm-strength issues)...and put in time at DH. Meanwhile, Bostock played considerably more CF and RF than LF for the Twins. So, to me it comes down to Allison, Rosario, and Gladden (Stewart was good for 2 seasons) Bob Allison was pretty clearly the best player in this list, offensively and defensively. Gladden gets consideration for the 800+ OPS across two WS wins. He’d be my number 2.
    6 points
  19. 129 AB .. 58 SO .. .163 BA .. Average fielder and below average speed on the base paths.. I swear to god, if Sano shortened his swing and tried to hit line drives he would end up hitting 40 balls over the fence by accident and strike out significant less ..
    6 points
  20. My opinions can basically be boiled down to "does this rule change speed up the game and/or increase action?" If yes, I'm probably in favor of it. If no, I'm probably against it. The easiest rule to change that will make the game better without impacting the on-field strategy/play at all is "the batter cannot step out of the box during a plate appearance". If that's too much, then eliminate the rule where the pitcher cannot pitch if the batter isn't in the box (basically, force the batter to be ready and in the box at all times). And then actually enforce the pitch clock, for god's sake. Those are rules that have zero impact on game theory/strategy (though players will surely try to claim otherwise) but will keep the game flow accelerated and fans more engaged. Because while three true outcomes can be boring, what really drags down a baseball game is watching the batter and pitcher take 25 second breathers between every. single. pitch.
    6 points
  21. USAFChief

    Matt Wallner hit by pitch

    YOU LEFT OUT THE MOST IMPORTANT PARTS: You attended the game with Chief, and Wallner got an RBI from the HBP! Jeez, get your act together, Mr high-falutin' blogger.
    5 points
  22. jmlease1

    Let Me Talk About Catchers

    are you just trolling in every thread now? Jeffers is a far superior defensive catcher by basically any possible metric, including the eye test. Astudillo got few chances at catcher this year because the Twins know he's not really any good back there. (Jeffers, even through his struggles, was a more valuable hitter at catcher as well) Astudillo is a fun player and obviously a likable guy, but he's not any kind of solution at catcher and doesn't hit or defend enough to deserve a spot on the 40-man, let alone the MLB roster.
    5 points
  23. Ughhhhh I cannot state how much I hate this brand of baseball thought. Who cares if Polanco has "peaked"? He's a good player and the Twins need good players. Every team needs good players. Tampa is an extremely well-run franchise but they're also a bunch of empty uniforms. There's a reason the fanbase is non-existent. They're also a ****ing scam. Their entire payroll budget is roughly what they received in national television revenue from MLB this season. They're raking in money hand over fist and deserve huge ridicule for it. They pull the crap they do on their fans because they want to, not because they need to. As a fan, I want my team to be good and I want to cheer on players I recognize and like. The Twins do not need to operate like Tampa. No team needs to operate like Tampa, including Tampa. There are times it makes sense to trade good players. I didn't have an issue with the Berrios trade due to the short-term incompetence of the team and the return on the player. I didn't love trading Berrios but understood it was a reasonable baseball move. But it's a big jump to go from Berrios to trading a good, cost-controlled player in his prime like Polanco. That would just straight-up piss me off.
    5 points
  24. A team option is a huge perk for a team, and is not agreed to lightly. If 2/$22 plus incentives is about fair, then probably the agent would ask at least for those incentives to be turned into guaranteed money, in exchange for including the option - e.g. $13M guaranteed plus an option on the second year for $13M with a $2M buyout. That works out to $15M actually guaranteed, which is still less than the $22M guarantee in the other plan, but some chance for Mike to sign with someone else that second year that make up the $7M difference or could be greater or could be smaller. Basically more risk borne by him than by the team, so I might be a little light on what the agent would ask for - maybe some innings incentives added back into one or both years, after all. There may be tax implications for the player, doing it one way versus the other, too.
    5 points
  25. I am a big Mike fan. It is a little worrisome all the minor injuries this year and I am like worried about how much weight he is carrying. But would be in favor of signing him to a two year contract with the second year being a team option.
    5 points
  26. I see Gordon as a .270 / .310 / .380 type of hitter. I don't think he could pay SS more then as a utility player and even then he is stretched. He seems solid in the OF to me as a back up. He has speed. He can also play in the IF. He is an ideal back up player in my book. He is a AAAA player but not like the traditional AAAA player and that makes him a back up. He is like 85-90% across the board with major league speed. He can also regress quickly from his current talent level and that will always be worrisome. He doesn't have much of a ceiling beyond this. Gordon had a nice run. but so did refsnyder. Lets see if Gordon can do that again next year. He has definitely earned the chance to show he is a good back up player.
    5 points
  27. Given how this season has gone and the way the roster is built, I wouldn't hesitate to clean house in the outfield. I'd drop Garlick, Refsnyder, Cave, Astudillo, and Rooker. I'd keep Gordon because I think he has real potential as a 10/11 man and he's actually kind of key to my outfield plans... If Gordon is a legit CF backup, maybe I keep a right-handed bat like Refsnyder or Rooker (I lean toward Refsnyder due to the glove but Rooker's bat is far more potent). If Gordon is not a legit backup CF, I ditch all the corner guys and go sign a competent defensive backup CF for a million bucks. Basically, it's time to move on from no-position corner guys taking up well over half the team's positional roster space. This team needs more balance than it has had in the past and that means sacrificing a little offense for defensive competency on the bench.
    5 points
  28. jmlease1

    Grading Falvey's Drafts

    I don't think your expectation is borne out by baseball draft history. Sure, for a top 5 pick like Royce Lewis the expectation is that he's going to be a major league player, and have a good chance at being more than that. And those top five picks almost always get to the majors and with at least some success. But first round picks still bust all the time, and expecting that the twins picks are going to be immune to that doesn't make sense to me. Falvey has had 1 top 5 pick (#1 overall), 1 pick in the top 15, and everything else 20 or lower. If all these guys make the majors it'd be amazing
    5 points
  29. chpettit19

    Grading Falvey's Drafts

    I guess for me it comes down to what your expectations are. You say you're almost ready to label Cavaco and Sabato busts despite them having 1 year of professional ball under their belt. That seems incredibly aggressive to me. Cavaco has 332 total minor league ABs in 88 total games (according to MLB.com). Sabato has 361 in 107. That's less than 1 season of play and you're saying they're already likely busts? That's some tough grading right there. I haven't been overly impressed with their drafts (I did like the Lewis, Larnach, and Petty picks), but I don't think they've been awful (Cavaco has the athleticism that creates the type of ceiling you want with a 1st round pick and Sabato absolutely crushed some of the best college baseball talent during his 2 years in NC). If Lewis had reached the majors last year or this year as was predicted before a pandemic and freak knee injury ruined both those plans I think things look a lot different. In a season ticket holder Q and A Levine spoke a little to their draft strategy. They feel the data shows that getting high end, elite bats later in the draft is much harder than finding impact pitching. They feel that your best chance to get game changing hitters is to get them early and that's what they were attempting to do with the bats they took. Their approach is to go after guys with elite tools (Lewis and Cavaco) or guys who dominated college baseball (Larnach, Sabato, Rooker, Wallner, Soularie) and look like they could have game changing bats. They believe they can turn pitchers with an already elite pitch into more complete pitchers and can get those guys later. That's their approach to pitching in general, actually. Find a guy with a pitch they can already put in their back pocket (Ryan fb, Petty fb, Wisler slider, Maeda split, Pineda slider, Duran fb, etc) and then use their technology based coaching to develop more pitches (Balazovic, really good article on the athletic today about his new splitter), add velo (Ober), or improve control (hopefully improve everyone's). Now you can certainly debate if that's the correct strategy (I know it's pretty universally accepted that you take a bat over an arm if they're closely ranked as bats are more likely to turn out) or if they've executed their vision well. But I think it's important to at least take their strategy and goals into consideration. I also think expectations on baseball draft prospects need to be tempered to a great degree. As Dman pointed out, the success rate is miniscule. To truly evaluate any FO and their ability to draft and develop you need to compare them to every other drafted and developed player. Like is Larnach really that far behind his 2018 draft class peers? I'd argue no. There aren't a bunch of them taking the league by storm already. He's among the handful that have made it to the bigs, and none of them are world beaters yet. I wouldn't say he's the best of the bunch by any means, but he's not getting drastically outdone by the players taken after him or anything. To me it's too early to judge these drafts, or their draft and development ability at all. It's a total incomplete grade to me.
    5 points
  30. This is the single most BS, yet extremely popular, Twins fan defeatest and apologist excuse in existence. There isn't any evidence to support the argument. The Twins just do not make competitive offers. That's a fact. They make lowball offers and the citations of agents telling the Twins to essentially stick it, are after the Twins make essentially the same lowball offer over and over again when there are already higher bids. It's exactly what they were doing with Yu Darvish and Josh Wheeler. The Twins had already been outbid, yet kept making offers which were lower than what was on the table or essentially the same as their previous offer. Kinda like Rick Spielman trying to trade up with lowball offer after lowball offer in the 2021 draft. The Carolina Panthers owner told them to stop calling "with negative value" offers. The Panthers didn't say "stop calling" period. Why did Josh Donaldson land with the Twins? Why did Kirk Cousins come to the Vikings? Why did Zach Parise and Ryan Suter come to the Wild? Don't they hate Minnesota? Oh... they came here because they were paid the most to come here. If you pay them... they will come. Yes, Ray, players will most definitely come.
    5 points
  31. I love this. However, the conclusion to draw, IMO, is not "the FO should decide to sign guys like this", because the market reality is they can't make that decision. They have to hope the Yankees, Dodgers, et al, allow such a signing. The real conclusion to draw is the MLB has to make it possible for the Twins and similar teams to pursue such FAs. Whether through CBA, revenue sharing, national media contracts, or something. It is simply getting ridiculous.
    5 points
  32. Appreciate the analysis. Only problem: it's built on an assumption which "might not be so," namely, the "top level" free agent starters would sign with the Twins if actively pursued, offered competitive money, etc. Based on the last few free agent cycles, I believe the Twins are at a massive disadvantage in pursuing the "top level" FA Starter compared to the largest market teams (like the Yankees & Dodgers), that the Twins won't even be considered by the "top level' FA Starters unless the Twins offer significantly better contract terms compared to those teams. Further, there's a good chance the Twins wouldn't be considered even if they did so. For whatever reason - beyond pure contract dollars - those guys appear to want to be in the "big markets": whether it's "better chance of winning there" (the top-level guys are typically at a stage in their career where winning a World Series is higher on their list of priorities), or "More off-field earning potential," or what, I think those guys generally aren't interested in coming to Minnesota & the Twins would have to offer significantly better contract terms to "get them interested." Which is a hard thing for a smaller market team to do.
    5 points
  33. Bean, thanks for the data that supports those of us who feel FA is only a fool's game for teams like the Twins emphasizing bargains rather than quality. The big question is whether this losing operating philosophy stems from Pohlad's tight-fistedness or incompetence of the FO. My guess is this past futility reflects more on ownership. Pohlad's banking background seems to inhibit him from foregoing short term profits instead of investing in long term success. Of course, I cannot possibly know what JP is thinking, but the results speak for themselves. He hires guys like Ryan and Falvey who share his bargain basement outlook on spending. Ryan(at least in his first go-round) proved adept at some shrewd trades and had some drafting success. Likewise, Falvey has acquired some good pitching vis the trade route(drafting success TBD). Basically, the problem is Pohlad's leadership in not enunciating an operating philosophy that would allow for the team to be legitimate contenders for a World Championship. No, Ryan and Falvey don't get free passes here, either. Their unwillingness to make some significant mid-season trades that might have elevated an already competitive club into a legitimate WS contender has been a glaring weakness for 20 years. Me thinks we have a two-headed monster : a passive owner who looks at the P&L statement as the end-all to his stewardship and risk-averse GM's who are selected because of basic agreement with this "don't-rock-the-boat" approach. The results speak for themselves, not just this year, but for the last 18 years of zero playoff success.
    5 points
  34. Knowing the kind of free agents that the Twins will actually sign (not pipe dreams), my best guess at the 2022 opening rotation would look something like this: Johnny Cueto Eduardo Rodriguez Jose Quintana Bailey Ober Randy Dobnak World Series experience, cherry-picked stat windows and the super-magical abilities of Wes Johnson will be used as selling tools to the fans. By mid-May comments like "DFA Quintana now!" and "Why is Rodriguez still in the rotation? Call up [insert prospect with hot start]!" will litter TD. I'll probably be one of the ones making the comments. Rinse/Repeat.
    5 points
  35. If he was removed from the 40-man roster after the season, he would be a free agent. I think he's done enough to put himself on the 40-man for the full offseason and a utility player role for 2022.
    5 points
  36. Pretty good assessment after the first paragraph. As for the first paragraph.......hmm, how to be polite. As good as Buxton is, yes, when healthy, he is not on the same planet as Rod Carew if you want to go into Twins history. Not only did Rod have the tools, he used them. He could turn a walk into a run better than anyone in the game. Buxton refuses to use his speed to the degree he not only could, but should, anywhere but in the field. He will not bunt, and steals sparingly (as in he could steal 3rd and even home far more often). In his own words, he is "looking to drive the ball", not worry about his average, even though a higher average would put him on base more, putting him in a position to do more with his speed. His athleticism may or may not be unmatched, but his production is far from unparalleled (no, production is not on a per game basis, it is season to season). You have to be on the field to produce; no one has yet to produce from the trainers room. Don't get me wrong; as I said, a good assessment from the 2nd paragraph down, but he has started more than 88 games only once in his career and until he does consistently, year in and year out, the jury will remain out. Doesn't mean I wouldn't sign him, but not for the money he thinks he is worth. Not yet, anyway.
    5 points
  37. Damn, this is some outstanding work. Well done.
    5 points
  38. My question's are these - Who are the next 6 foundational players? All 6 of these were products of the Terry Ryan era. Does Falvey even have the next 6 in the system? Are any of the current 6 going to be a part of the next 6? I can't believe our window is already closed and we're talking about this. Dammit. I do still think Berrios and Buxton can and should be a part of the next 6. Can we sign them? Do we want to sign them? I have lots of questions.
    5 points
  39. I agree with most of this, except that I believe the chance of Cruz being traded is close to 100%. No matter if the return is good or not, he'll almost surely be moved. There aren't many teams that need a DH but literally every single playoff team wants Cruz on their roster, if only for pinch-hitting duty.
    5 points
  40. ashbury

    Thanks

    I'm thankful for people who have the good grace to be thankful. And of course for Twins Daily.
    4 points
  41. I don't know how high the price would be for Gallen but he is an interesting trade target. As far as the end of your blog goes, I don't think we have to suffer through a few "bad" years before we compete again. I also don't think we need to go nuts signing a bunch of expensive FA pitchers to compete. I've said here before, sign Pineda and sign and for 2 more in the same "class and range" as him, pick up 1 or 2 bullpen arms with experience, not expensive closers, Sign or trade for a defensive ss that can hit enough to stay above the mendoza line, and this team will be competitive. Rough estimate 3 starters x 9mil=27 mil + 2 pen x 5mil=10 mil + 6mil ss=43mil. That may actually be a bit high as I think going the trade route with 1 or 2 of those 6 positions would save $.
    4 points
  42. The Twins have a good DH already. Arraez would be a good cheap fit for DH. The man is a professional hitter. Would you rather have Arraez or Sano at bat in the 10th inning in a tie game, with a runner standing at 2B. Now compare the 2022 salary of Sano and the salary of Arraez. Case closed.
    4 points
  43. When healthy, Big Mike is more than a #3. While he isn't an ace, he can go toe to toe with almost anyone. Highly doubt we sign a top tier free agent, so I'd be fine with Big Mike being our opening day pitcher next year.
    4 points
  44. The Odo trade needs some context. As per usual the ever payroll conscious Rays needed to move Odo and his market wasn't good. I think we all were surprised the Twins were getting two years of Odo for a single player in A ball. Still Palacios had potential and he is showing now what the Rays thought they were getting. A player with a good eye at the plate who also is hitting for power that can play short. It didn't work out for Tampa but it had decent potential IMO. Tampa achieved what they wanted though which was getting rid of salary so in my mind they weren't really trying to "win" that trade just achieve an objective. So it depends on how you look at these deals IMO. Way too early to assess the Cruz trade and again context is needed. Tampa wasn't worried about winning the Cruz trade long term as they needed a difference maker bat for this postseason and Cruz was the best available that wouldn't hurt them salary wise long term. Strotman was a player likely not good enough to make their 40 man next year and Ryan looks good but is a one trick pony unless his secondary's improve. It is quite the haul for half a year of Cruz but again Tampa needed a short term asset to help them in the playoffs and they got the guy they wanted. If he helps them win the world series then in my mind Tampa wins this trade or you could say both teams won depending on how Ryan and Strotman work out. If Cruz fails to be the difference maker they paid for then it seems hard to see how they could "win" that trade but sometimes you have to take calculated risks and I think theirs was a good one.
    4 points
  45. For a team with almost nothing but question marks on the mound to fill 13 positions "Mostly Set Up" seems pretty confident.
    4 points
  46. I'm hearing this opinion a lot on the boards, but what we're hearing now is that it wasn't the guaranteed money that was the sticking point on the extension, it was something related to the structure of the incentives. So from a reasonableness perspective, the issue is apparently not the guaranteed money at all. but never let the truth get in the way of calling the Pohlad Family cheap...
    4 points
  47. While I'm not ready for a rebuild, these are the types of heavy returns which the Twins would need to have if they choose to start over. I'm also of the mind to push San Diego for C. J. Abrams.
    4 points
  48. I say the Twins take a chance and actually give us the ANSWER to this question. Jettison/trade Pineda and Happ and put Barnes and Winder in the rotation with Berrios, Maeda and Ober. Dobnak and Thorpe are your AAA depth when they come back from injury. Move on from Robles (trade), Colome (trade or DFA) and Theilbar or Coloumbe (trade) and call up Hamilton, Vazquez and Cano. Pitch the starters every 5th day and use the relievers like real relievers in 6th and 7th inning situations. When inevitable 10 day IL stints occur, hope that one or more of the presently injured or AA guys like Sands, Duran, Caterino or Moran can fill in. Let's be Darwinian - may be the best guys win! My guess is that Winder will show enough to be penciled into the 2022 rotation along with Ober, but Barnes will be more of a 6th starter/long man/ AAAA guy. In the bullpen, Hamilton and Cano will be middle relief arms next year and Vasquez will be another long man/AAAA guy. But what do I know? Let's settle this in the arena!
    4 points
  49. Harmon Killebrew. He was the everyday LF from’62-64. Played in 470 games as Twins starting LF. Allison started 472. Harmon averaged 47 hr’s as LF. Of those listed, only Rosario and Allison played more LF.
    4 points
  50. 1] Move the 2B extra inning runner rule to the 12th inning. 2] Enforce a 20 second pitch clock. I can go along with 15 seconds with no-one on base. But you also have to enforce the batters staying in the box as well or you've done nothing. Give the batter 5 seconds to step out and adjust. Your fault if you didn't put enough pine tar on your bat before you stepped in. 3] Eliminate the 3 batter rule. I think it's been proven to have no positive effect. 4] Shifts are fine. Extreme shifts are just boring! Everyone should be required to have TWO players on the dirt on either side of 2B. You can cheat all the way to 2B, but not 3 on any one side. 5] DH in both leagues. It's time. And I think even those who aren't crazy about the DH realize it's time for uniformity. 6] A 27 man roster with a cap on 13 pitchers. Similar to 2020. The game has changed. It's time to change with the times. Not everyone has their AAA club across town or a couple hours away. There are still minor injuries that happen but don't warrant an IL stint. Platoons and situational baseball has changed. An extra bench player to provide PH, PR and depth options makes too much sense in today's game. 7] Eliminate the STUPID September limited roster roster promotion rule. This was done as a ridiculous "integrity of the game" idea that losing teams, out of contention, wouldn't load their lineup with prospects against a team still playing for a post season spot. How in hell is a bad team that much worse auditioning a player or two at the end of the season? Further, how about a playoff team that wants to audition a player or two for the future and maybe rest a couple guys getting ready for the playoffs to be ready for optomim performance? Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face! Maybe I'm just being an experienced and opinionated jerk, but I think all of these points are logical, needed, and easy, and cheap, to implement. And they ALL improve the game. A pair of final considerations: A] I am not against robot umpires. But you go down a rabbit hole to milb, college baseball, etc. It may happen. And that's fine. But I'd still rather see education, more review and grading and control. MLB and the players union have more control than the umpire union does. I'd rather start with better evaluation and promotion-demotion. B] This one is just tongue in cheek and silly and having a bit of an old school love, but since there are so many uniform rules in all sports already, how about some rule where pants have to be so many inches above the shoe, or below the knee? LOL! I know it sounds stupid, but there is still something fun about actually seeing the traditional look of the socks. Accept everything posted and give me all the crap you want to about the uniforms.
    4 points
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